MCY Stock Analysis: Mercury General | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.163m USD | 12M Return: 68.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 30.8M
Qual. Beats: 7
Rev. Trend: 97.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) is a Los Angeles-based property and casualty insurer, incorporated in 1961 and publicly traded since 1990. Its core business is personal automobile insurance, with additional offerings in homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial property, mechanical protection, and umbrella coverage. The company distributes policies primarily through independent agents and agencies, supplemented by direct internet sales portals, across 11 U.S. states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia.
As a mid-cap P&C insurer with a market capitalization of approximately $5.7 billion, Mercury General operates in a sector that typically generates revenue from two sources: underwriting premiums and investment income on policyholder reserves (the float). Personal lines auto insurers in California-the companys primary state-are subject to Proposition 103, which mandates rate filings and prior approval by the state Department of Insurance, making regulatory approval a key factor in pricing and product strategy. The independent agent distribution model remains common in the personal lines P&C sector, allowing carriers to achieve geographic reach without maintaining captive agency infrastructure.
- California Proposition 103 delays compress auto insurance pricing
- Wildfire catastrophe losses pressure underwriting combined ratio
- Investment income rises with higher interest rate environment
| Net Income: 839.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -59.49% < 20% (prev 33.21%; Δ -92.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 1.48b > Net Income 839.8m |
| Net Debt (-1.19b) to EBITDA (1.15b): -1.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.44 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.4m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 43.85% > 18% (prev 12.57%; Δ 31.29% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 64.95% > 50% (prev 61.98%; Δ 2.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 37.87 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 28.3m) |
| A: -0.37 (Total Current Assets 2.82b - Total Current Liabilities 6.47b) / Total Assets 9.87b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 2.49b / Total Assets 9.87b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Avg Total Assets 9.45b) |
| D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 2.59b / Total Liabilities 7.28b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.47 = B |
| DSRI: 0.61 (Receivables 1.03b/1.52b, Revenue 6.14b/5.60b) |
| GMI: 0.29 (GM 12.57% / 43.85%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.70 / AQ_t-1 0.76) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 6.14b / 5.60b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 839.8m - CFO 1.48b) / TA 9.87b) |
| Beneish M = -3.97 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 109.79 with a total of 241,376 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.15%, over one month by +8.93%, over three months by +17.04% and over the past year by +68.83%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 106.30 (which is 3.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Mercury General has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MCY.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 120 | 9.3% |
P/E Trailing = 7.3349
P/E Forward = 19.7628
P/S = 0.9973
P/B = 2.3626
P/EG = 1.1149
Revenue TTM = 6.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 574.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.77m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 599.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 12.7m
Net Debt = -1.19b USD (calculated: Debt 599.9m - CCE 1.79b)
Enterprise Value = 4.97b USD (6.16b + Debt 599.9m - CCE 1.79b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 37.87 (Ebit TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 28.3m)
EV/FCF = 3.50x (Enterprise Value 4.97b / FCF TTM 1.42b)
FCF Yield = 28.56% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Enterprise Value 4.97b)
FCF Margin = 23.12% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Revenue TTM 6.14b)
Net Margin = 13.68% (Net Income TTM 839.8m / Revenue TTM 6.14b)
Gross Margin = 43.85% ((Revenue TTM 6.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.45b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.41% (prev 85.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.50 (Enterprise Value 4.97b / Total Assets 9.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.71% (Interest Expense 28.3m / Debt 599.9m)
Taxrate = 19.37% (201.8m / 1.04b)
NOPAT = 862.6m (EBIT 1.07b * (1 - 19.37%))
Current Ratio = 0.44 (Total Current Assets 2.82b / Total Current Liabilities 6.47b)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 599.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.59b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.04 (Net Debt -1.19b / EBITDA 1.15b)
Debt / FCF = -0.84 (Net Debt -1.19b / FCF TTM 1.42b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.89% (Net Income 839.8m / Total Assets 9.87b)
RoE = 36.48% (Net Income TTM 839.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.30b)
RoCE = 37.19% (EBIT 1.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.30b + L.T.Debt 574.6m))
RoIC = 27.81% (NOPAT 862.6m / Invested Capital 3.10b)
WACC = 6.69% (E(6.16b)/V(6.76b) * Re(6.97%) + D(599.9m)/V(6.76b) * Rd(4.71%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 6.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 88.19 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.14b ; Y1≈1.31b ; Y5≈1.93b
[DCF] Fair Price = 545.2 (EV 29.0b - Net Debt -1.19b = Equity 30.2b / Shares 55.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.23 | # QB: 7
Revenue Correlation: 97.81 | Revenue CAGR: 14.50% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.80 | Chg30d=+33.33% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.35 | Chg30d=+21.82% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.75 | Chg30d=+30.56% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+48.7% | GrowthRev=+8.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.00 | Chg30d=+50.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+2.1% | GrowthRev=+5.4%