MCY Stock Analysis: Mercury General | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.554m USD | 12M Return: 21.6% | US5894001008 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 32.4M
Qual. Beats: 8
Rev. Trend: 97.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) is a U.S. property and casualty insurer founded in 1961 and headquartered in Los Angeles, California. The company primarily writes personal automobile insurance, which is its core line, and also offers homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial property, mechanical protection, and umbrella insurance. Its auto products cover collision, bodily injury, property damage, comprehensive, personal injury protection, and uninsured/underinsured motorist coverage, while its homeowners policies include dwelling, liability, and personal property protection.
The company distributes its policies through independent agents and agencies, supplemented by direct online sales portals, operating across 11 states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia. As a Property & Casualty insurer within the Financials sector, Mercury General competes in a market where premium rates, underwriting discipline, and investment income on float are key drivers of profitability.
- California auto rate reform pressures underwriting margins
- Wildfire catastrophe losses pressure combined ratio
- Investment income growth offsets underwriting volatility
| Net Income: 936.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.49 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -62.25% < 20% (prev -62.30%; Δ 0.05% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 1.33b > Net Income 936.9m |
| Net Debt (-1.09b) to EBITDA (1.27b): -0.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.39 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.4m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 44.78% > 18% (prev 14.71%; Δ 30.07% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 64.63% > 50% (prev 63.51%; Δ 1.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 41.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.19b / Interest Expense TTM 29.0m) |
| A: -0.37 (Total Current Assets 2.52b - Total Current Liabilities 6.47b) / Total Assets 10.5b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 2.74b / Total Assets 10.5b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 1.19b / Avg Total Assets 9.81b) |
| D: 0.37 (Book Value of Equity 2.84b / Total Liabilities 7.71b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.41 = B |
| DSRI: 0.58 (Receivables 828.5m/1.31b, Revenue 6.34b/5.77b) |
| GMI: 0.33 (GM 14.71% / 44.78%) |
| AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.74 / AQ_t-1 0.68) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 6.34b / 5.77b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 936.9m - CFO 1.33b) / TA 10.5b) |
| Beneish M = -3.86 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 102.29 with a total of 275,878 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.01%, over one month by -0.03%, over three months by -6.82% and over the past year by +21.64%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 98.30 (which is 3.9% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Mercury General has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MCY.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 120 | 17.3% |
P/E Trailing = 5.9287
P/E Forward = 19.7628
P/S = 0.8553
P/B = 1.9126
P/EG = 1.1149
Revenue TTM = 6.34b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.19b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.27b USD
Long Term Debt = 943.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.77m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 980.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 18.4m
Net Debt = -1.09b USD (calculated: Debt 980.5m - CCE 2.07b)
Enterprise Value = 4.47b USD (5.55b + Debt 980.5m - CCE 2.07b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 41.12 (Ebit TTM 1.19b / Interest Expense TTM 29.0m)
EV/FCF = 4.68x (Enterprise Value 4.47b / FCF TTM 953.4m)
FCF Yield = 21.35% (FCF TTM 953.4m / Enterprise Value 4.47b)
FCF Margin = 15.03% (FCF TTM 953.4m / Revenue TTM 6.34b)
Net Margin = 14.77% (Net Income TTM 936.9m / Revenue TTM 6.34b)
Gross Margin = 44.78% ((Revenue TTM 6.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.50b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.24% (prev 39.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.42 (Enterprise Value 4.47b / Total Assets 10.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.95% (Interest Expense 29.0m / Debt 980.5m)
Taxrate = 19.39% (225.3m / 1.16b)
NOPAT = 960.2m (EBIT 1.19b * (1 - 19.39%))
Current Ratio = 0.37 (Total Current Assets 2.52b / Total Current Liabilities 6.89b)
Debt / Equity = 0.35 (Debt 980.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.84b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.86 (Net Debt -1.09b / EBITDA 1.27b)
Debt / FCF = -1.14 (Net Debt -1.09b / FCF TTM 953.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.52b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.55% (Net Income 936.9m / Total Assets 10.5b)
RoE = 37.19% (Net Income TTM 936.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.52b)
RoCE = 34.40% (EBIT 1.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.52b + L.T.Debt 943.8m))
RoIC = 9.39% (NOPAT 960.2m / Invested Capital 10.2b)
WACC = 6.32% (E(5.55b)/V(6.53b) * Re(7.01%) + D(980.5m)/V(6.53b) * Rd(2.95%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 88.15 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈737.4m ; Y1≈845.3m ; Y5≈1.24b
[DCF] Fair Price = 357.6 (EV 18.7b - Net Debt -1.09b = Equity 19.8b / Shares 55.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 3.17 | # QB: 8
Revenue Correlation: 97.67 | Revenue CAGR: 13.44% | SUE: 1.35 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.35 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.50 | Chg30d=+14.89% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+70.9% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.25 | Chg30d=+2.08% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-9.3% | GrowthRev=+6.7%