(MDU) MDU Resources - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Natural Gas, Pipeline
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.76% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.44% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -11.65% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 60.0% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 23.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 37.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.24% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.22 |
| Alpha | -2.14 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.13 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.391 |
| Beta | 0.502 |
| Beta Downside | 0.426 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 21.48% |
| Mean DD | 7.96% |
| Median DD | 7.80% |
Description: MDU MDU Resources November 08, 2025
MDU Resources Group, Inc. (NYSE: MDU) is a regulated utility that operates three core segments-Electric, Natural Gas Distribution, and Pipeline-delivering electricity across Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, and supplying natural-gas service in eight western and mid-western states. The Pipeline segment provides regulated natural-gas transportation and underground storage primarily in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions, while a non-regulated unit offers cathodic-protection and other energy-related services.
Key performance indicators from the most recent FY 2023 filing show a consolidated revenue of roughly **$1.9 billion**, a regulated rate-base of **$4.6 billion**, and a **dividend yield near 2.5 %**. Capital expenditures (CapEx) were directed mainly toward grid modernization (≈ $150 million) and pipeline integrity upgrades (≈ $120 million), reflecting the company’s focus on reliability and regulatory compliance.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect MDU’s outlook include (1) **regional natural-gas price volatility**, which influences distribution margins; (2) **state-level renewable-energy mandates**, prompting incremental investment in wind and solar assets that could diversify the electric mix; and (3) **inflation-adjusted rate-case outcomes** from public utility commissions, which determine the permissible return on the regulated rate-base and therefore earnings stability.
Assuming current rate-case outcomes hold and that capital spending continues to target reliability upgrades, MDU’s earnings-before-interest-tax-depreciation-amortization (EBITDA) margin is expected to stay in the **30-32 %** range, but this could shift if gas price spikes or stricter renewable quotas materially alter cost structures.
For a deeper, data-driven look at MDU’s valuation sensitivities and scenario modeling, the ValueRay platform offers tools that can help you quantify these risks and opportunities.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (169.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 112.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.35pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -8.80% (prev 7.91%; Δ -16.71pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 453.3m > Net Income 169.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.28b) to EBITDA (515.9m) ratio: 4.41 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (205.3m) change vs 12m ago 0.30% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 31.85% (prev 26.85%; Δ 5.00pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 24.44% (prev 28.85%; Δ -4.41pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.03 (EBITDA TTM 515.9m / Interest Expense TTM 102.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.90
| (A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 501.4m - Total Current Liabilities 666.5m) / Total Assets 7.19b |
| (B) 0.15 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.06b / Total Assets 7.19b |
| (C) 0.04 = EBIT TTM 309.9m / Avg Total Assets 7.68b |
| (D) 0.28 = Book Value of Equity 1.25b / Total Liabilities 4.46b |
| Total Rating: 0.90 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 40.92
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -0.36% |
| 3. FCF Margin -1.19% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.86 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 4.41 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.23)% |
| 7. RoE 6.22% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -82.76% |
| 9. EPS Trend -43.88% |
What is the price of MDU shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.44%, over one month by -6.84%, over three months by +21.49% and over the past year by +7.57%.
Is MDU a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MDU price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20.6 | 5.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20.6 | 5.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 23.1 | 17.8% |
MDU Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
P/E Trailing = 21.5
P/E Forward = 16.9205
P/S = 2.1074
P/B = 1.4456
P/EG = 2.0384
Beta = 0.43
Revenue TTM = 1.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 309.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 515.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.19b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 164.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.35b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.28b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.23b USD (3.95b + Debt 2.35b - CCE 75.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.03 (Ebit TTM 309.9m / Interest Expense TTM 102.4m)
FCF Yield = -0.36% (FCF TTM -22.3m / Enterprise Value 6.23b)
FCF Margin = -1.19% (FCF TTM -22.3m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Net Margin = 9.02% (Net Income TTM 169.3m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Gross Margin = 31.85% ((Revenue TTM 1.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.05% (prev 30.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 6.23b / Total Assets 7.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.12% (Interest Expense 26.4m / Debt 2.35b)
Taxrate = 11.11% (2.30m / 20.7m)
NOPAT = 275.5m (EBIT 309.9m * (1 - 11.11%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 501.4m / Total Current Liabilities 666.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.86 (Debt 2.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.72b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.41 (Net Debt 2.28b / EBITDA 515.9m)
Debt / FCF = -102.1 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 2.28b / FCF TTM -22.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.72b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.36% (Net Income 169.3m / Total Assets 7.19b)
RoE = 6.22% (Net Income TTM 169.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.72b)
RoCE = 6.31% (EBIT 309.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.72b + L.T.Debt 2.19b))
RoIC = 5.53% (NOPAT 275.5m / Invested Capital 4.98b)
WACC = 5.31% (E(3.95b)/V(6.31b) * Re(7.87%) + D(2.35b)/V(6.31b) * Rd(1.12%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 7.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.29%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -22.3m)
EPS Correlation: -43.88 | EPS CAGR: -33.69% | SUE: -0.40 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -82.76 | Revenue CAGR: -33.35% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+8.4% | Growth Revenue=+3.0%
Additional Sources for MDU Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle