MEC Stock Analysis: Mayville Engineering | NYSE

Metal Fabrication | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 860m USD | 12M Return: 109.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Engineered Parts, Aluminum Extrusions, Assemblies, Industrial Coatings
Total Rating 60
Safety 58
Buy Signal 0.46
Metal Fabrication
Industry Rotation: -25.5
Market Cap: 860M
Avg Turnover: 18.8M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility45.3%
VaR 5th Pctl7.40%
VaR vs Median-0.89%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.51
Rel. Str. IBD96.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group98.5
Character TTM
Beta1.229
Beta Downside0.942
Hurst Exponent0.551
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD45.62%
CAGR/Max DD1.00
CAGR/Mean DD3.01
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MEC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.16, "2021-09": 0.01, "2021-12": -0.03, "2022-03": 0.19, "2022-06": 0.32, "2022-09": 0.33, "2022-12": 0.12, "2023-03": 0.18, "2023-06": 0.2, "2023-09": 0.21, "2023-12": 0.11, "2024-03": 0.22, "2024-06": 0.26, "2024-09": 0.21, "2024-12": -0.07, "2025-03": 0.04, "2025-06": 0.1, "2025-09": 0.1, "2025-12": -0.08, "2026-03": -0.15,
Last SUE: 1.80
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of MEC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 120.213, 2021-09: 109.018, 2021-12: 112.975, 2022-03: 136.252, 2022-06: 138.337, 2022-09: 136.275, 2022-12: 128.527, 2023-03: 142.645, 2023-06: 138.98, 2023-09: 158.217, 2023-12: 148.582, 2024-03: 161.269, 2024-06: 163.636, 2024-09: 135.392, 2024-12: 121.306, 2025-03: 135.579, 2025-06: 132.328, 2025-09: 144.31, 2025-12: 134.27, 2026-03: 144.78,
Rev. CAGR: -2.78%
Rev. Trend: -44.1%
Last SUE: 0.65
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Tailwinds

Rs Leader
Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 7.1 years of data

Jan -0.8% 15
Feb -2.9% 17
Mar -4.8% 37
Apr -1.7% 20
May +15.3% 50
Jun +3.5% 25
Jul +0.4% 2
Aug -2.2% 19
Sep +2.1% 16
Oct +4.8% 3
Nov +3.5% 15
Dec +9.5% 20

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MEC Mayville Engineering

Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) is a U.S.-based industrial manufacturer that produces engineered metal components and assemblies, offering services spanning design, prototyping, tooling, fabrication, aluminum extrusion, coating, and final assembly. The company operates primarily as a Tier 1 and Tier 2 supplier to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), integrating vertically across multiple value-added processes within the industrial supply chain. Its end markets are highly diversified, including heavy and medium-duty commercial vehicles, construction and access equipment, powersports, data center and critical power infrastructure, agriculture, and military/defense applications.

Founded in 1945 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, MEC falls within the Industrials sector and is classified under the GICS sub-industry of Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components. As a small-cap industrial supplier, its diversified exposure across commercial vehicle, construction, and data center end markets positions it within broader capital goods and metal fabrication supply chains.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Data center critical power orders drive segment revenue growth
  • Heavy-duty truck and construction equipment demand lifts production volumes
  • Aluminum and steel input costs pressure fabrication margins
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: -16.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -14.28 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 10.35% < 20% (prev 8.83%; Δ 1.53% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 27.5m > Net Income -16.3m
Net Debt (249.2m) to EBITDA (22.2m): 11.23 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.64 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (20.4m) vs 12m ago -1.47% < -2%
Gross Margin: 8.33% > 18% (prev 11.78%; Δ -3.45% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 108.3% > 50% (prev 124.2%; Δ -15.83% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM -20.6m / Interest Expense TTM 12.3m)
Altman Z'' 1.34
A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 147.3m - Total Current Liabilities 89.7m) / Total Assets 578.1m
B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 43.8m / Total Assets 578.1m)
C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -20.6m / Avg Total Assets 512.9m)
D: 0.67 (Book Value of Equity 232.2m / Total Liabilities 345.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 1.34 = BB
Beneish M -2.33
DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 68.1m/57.9m, Revenue 555.7m/555.9m)
GMI: 1.41 (GM 11.78% / 8.33%)
AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.43 / AQ_t-1 0.33)
SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 555.7m / 555.9m)
TATA: -0.08 (NI -16.3m - CFO 27.5m) / TA 578.1m)
Beneish M = -2.33 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB
What is the price of MEC shares?

As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.72 with a total of 187,329 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.51%, over one month by -4.96%, over three months by +61.34% and over the past year by +109.05%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.30 (which is 7.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is MEC a buy, sell or hold?

Mayville Engineering has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MEC.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MEC price?
Analysts Target Price 33.7 -0.1%
Mayville Engineering (MEC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 11 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 859.7m (859.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 22.0751
P/S = 1.547
P/B = 3.6805
Revenue TTM = 555.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -20.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 212.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.28m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 251.3m USD (corrected: LT Debt 212.4m + ST Debt 8.28m) + Leases 30.6m
Net Debt = 249.2m USD (calculated: Debt 251.3m - CCE 2.07m)
Enterprise Value = 1.11b USD (859.7m + Debt 251.3m - CCE 2.07m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.67 (Ebit TTM -20.6m / Interest Expense TTM 12.3m)
EV/FCF = 75.94x (Enterprise Value 1.11b / FCF TTM 14.6m)
FCF Yield = 1.32% (FCF TTM 14.6m / Enterprise Value 1.11b)
FCF Margin = 2.63% (FCF TTM 14.6m / Revenue TTM 555.7m)
Net Margin = -2.93% (Net Income TTM -16.3m / Revenue TTM 555.7m)
Gross Margin = 8.33% ((Revenue TTM 555.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 509.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 5.41% (prev 6.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.92 (Enterprise Value 1.11b / Total Assets 578.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.90% (Interest Expense 12.3m / Debt 251.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -16.2m (EBIT -20.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.64 (Total Current Assets 147.3m / Total Current Liabilities 89.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.08 (Debt 251.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 232.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.23 (Net Debt 249.2m / EBITDA 22.2m)
Debt / FCF = 17.07 (Net Debt 249.2m / FCF TTM 14.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 241.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.18% (Net Income -16.3m / Total Assets 578.1m)
RoE = -6.76% (Net Income TTM -16.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 241.1m)
RoCE = -4.53% (EBIT -20.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 241.1m + L.T.Debt 212.4m))
 RoIC = -3.34% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -16.2m / Invested Capital 486.3m)
 WACC = 8.85% (E(859.7m)/V(1.11b) * Re(10.30%) + D(251.3m)/V(1.11b) * Rd(4.90%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.26% ; FCFF base≈38.9m ; Y1≈34.1m ; Y5≈27.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.25 (EV 408.5m - Net Debt 249.2m = Equity 159.2m / Shares 25.5m; r=8.85% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.80 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -44.12 | Revenue CAGR: -2.78% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.06 | Chg30d=+23.10% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=-3.37% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=-23.63% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-56.5% | GrowthRev=+10.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.17 | Chg30d=-10.20% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+770.5% | GrowthRev=+11.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -10% (up=3, down=4)