(MED) MEDIFAST - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US58470H1014
Stock: Meal Replacements, Coaching, OPTAVIA, Weight Loss, Supplements
Total Rating 36
Risk 87
Buy Signal -0.97
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 46.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.06% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.65 |
| Alpha | -36.78 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.529 |
| Beta Downside | 0.283 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 90.46% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.58 |
Description: MED MEDIFAST January 17, 2026
Medifast, Inc. (NYSE: MED) is a U.S.-based health and wellness company that delivers habit-based, coach-guided weight-loss solutions under the OPTAVIA brand. Its portfolio combines pre-portioned meals (bars, shakes, soups, etc.) with personalized coaching and, where appropriate, access to GLP-1 medications, sold through both brick-and-mortar points of sale and an expanding e-commerce platform.
Key operational metrics from the most recent fiscal year include approximately $1.6 billion in revenue, a 9 % year-over-year increase driven largely by higher e-commerce penetration and growth in the GLP-1 support segment, and an adjusted EBITDA margin around 14 %. The obesity treatment market is expanding at roughly 8 % CAGR, supported by rising prevalence (≈42 % of U.S. adults) and increasing insurance coverage for pharmacologic therapies, which together act as tailwinds for Medifast’s coach-guided, medication-adjunct model.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform provides granular metrics on MED’s pricing power, subscriber churn, and relative valuation within the personal-care sector.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: 248.0k TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -11.38 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 37.50% < 20% (prev 22.62%; Δ 14.87% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 7.19m > Net Income 248.0k |
| Net Debt (-87.3m) to EBITDA (9.69m): -9.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (11.0m) vs 12m ago 0.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 72.44% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 7170 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 153.6% > 50% (prev 231.6%; Δ -77.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -4.48 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 9.69m / Interest Expense TTM 955.0k) |
Altman Z'' 9.44
| A: 0.60 (Total Current Assets 207.8m - Total Current Liabilities 46.7m) / Total Assets 268.2m |
| B: 0.66 (Retained Earnings 176.2m / Total Assets 268.2m) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -4.28m / Avg Total Assets 279.7m) |
| D: 3.30 (Book Value of Equity 176.5m / Total Liabilities 53.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 9.44 = AAA |
What is the price of MED shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.36 with a total of 368,649 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.70%, over one month by +4.89%, over three months by -3.73% and over the past year by -26.66%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.70%, over one month by +4.89%, over three months by -3.73% and over the past year by -26.66%.
Is MED a buy, sell or hold?
MEDIFAST has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold MED.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MED price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15 | 32% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15 | 32% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 5.9 | -48.5% |
MED Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 572.0
P/S = 0.2926
P/B = 0.5708
P/EG = 1.95
Revenue TTM = 429.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -4.28m USD
EBITDA TTM = 9.69m USD
Long Term Debt = 12.3m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.47m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -87.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 38.5m USD (125.7m + Debt 12.3m - CCE 99.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.48 (Ebit TTM -4.28m / Interest Expense TTM 955.0k)
EV/FCF = 59.56x (Enterprise Value 38.5m / FCF TTM 646.0k)
FCF Yield = 1.68% (FCF TTM 646.0k / Enterprise Value 38.5m)
FCF Margin = 0.15% (FCF TTM 646.0k / Revenue TTM 429.7m)
Net Margin = 0.06% (Net Income TTM 248.0k / Revenue TTM 429.7m)
Gross Margin = 72.44% ((Revenue TTM 429.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 118.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.52% (prev 72.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.14 (Enterprise Value 38.5m / Total Assets 268.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.79% (Interest Expense 955.0k / Debt 12.3m)
Taxrate = 44.78% (1.70m / 3.79m)
NOPAT = -2.36m (EBIT -4.28m * (1 - 44.78%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.45 (Total Current Assets 207.8m / Total Current Liabilities 46.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 12.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 214.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -9.01 (Net Debt -87.3m / EBITDA 9.69m)
Debt / FCF = -135.1 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt -87.3m / FCF TTM 646.0k)
Total Stockholder Equity = 212.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.09% (Net Income 248.0k / Total Assets 268.2m)
RoE = 0.12% (Net Income TTM 248.0k / Total Stockholder Equity 212.9m)
RoCE = -1.90% (EBIT -4.28m / Capital Employed (Equity 212.9m + L.T.Debt 12.3m))
RoIC = -1.11% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.36m / Invested Capital 212.9m)
WACC = 7.54% (E(125.7m)/V(138.0m) * Re(7.86%) + D(12.3m)/V(138.0m) * Rd(7.79%) * (1-Tc(0.45)))
Discount Rate = 7.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.26%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.36% ; FCFF base≈13.9m ; Y1≈9.14m ; Y5≈4.17m
Fair Price DCF = 16.01 (EV 88.7m - Net Debt -87.3m = Equity 176.0m / Shares 11.0m; r=7.54% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -94.52 | EPS CAGR: -49.97% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -97.76 | Revenue CAGR: -31.91% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.36 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.61 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-43.8% | Growth Revenue=-11.7%
P/S = 0.2926
P/B = 0.5708
P/EG = 1.95
Revenue TTM = 429.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -4.28m USD
EBITDA TTM = 9.69m USD
Long Term Debt = 12.3m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.47m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -87.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 38.5m USD (125.7m + Debt 12.3m - CCE 99.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.48 (Ebit TTM -4.28m / Interest Expense TTM 955.0k)
EV/FCF = 59.56x (Enterprise Value 38.5m / FCF TTM 646.0k)
FCF Yield = 1.68% (FCF TTM 646.0k / Enterprise Value 38.5m)
FCF Margin = 0.15% (FCF TTM 646.0k / Revenue TTM 429.7m)
Net Margin = 0.06% (Net Income TTM 248.0k / Revenue TTM 429.7m)
Gross Margin = 72.44% ((Revenue TTM 429.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 118.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.52% (prev 72.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.14 (Enterprise Value 38.5m / Total Assets 268.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.79% (Interest Expense 955.0k / Debt 12.3m)
Taxrate = 44.78% (1.70m / 3.79m)
NOPAT = -2.36m (EBIT -4.28m * (1 - 44.78%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.45 (Total Current Assets 207.8m / Total Current Liabilities 46.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 12.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 214.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -9.01 (Net Debt -87.3m / EBITDA 9.69m)
Debt / FCF = -135.1 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt -87.3m / FCF TTM 646.0k)
Total Stockholder Equity = 212.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.09% (Net Income 248.0k / Total Assets 268.2m)
RoE = 0.12% (Net Income TTM 248.0k / Total Stockholder Equity 212.9m)
RoCE = -1.90% (EBIT -4.28m / Capital Employed (Equity 212.9m + L.T.Debt 12.3m))
RoIC = -1.11% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.36m / Invested Capital 212.9m)
WACC = 7.54% (E(125.7m)/V(138.0m) * Re(7.86%) + D(12.3m)/V(138.0m) * Rd(7.79%) * (1-Tc(0.45)))
Discount Rate = 7.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.26%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.36% ; FCFF base≈13.9m ; Y1≈9.14m ; Y5≈4.17m
Fair Price DCF = 16.01 (EV 88.7m - Net Debt -87.3m = Equity 176.0m / Shares 11.0m; r=7.54% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -94.52 | EPS CAGR: -49.97% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -97.76 | Revenue CAGR: -31.91% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.36 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.61 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-43.8% | Growth Revenue=-11.7%