(MFA) MFA Financial - Ratings and Ratios
Residential Mortgage Securities, Residential Whole Loans, Mortgage Servicing Rights
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 14.86% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 18.08% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 44.07% |
| Payout Consistency | 86.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 131.2% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 41.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.81% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.00 |
| Alpha | -14.38 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.29 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.385 |
| Beta | 0.828 |
| Beta Downside | 0.931 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.62% |
| Mean DD | 10.39% |
| Median DD | 10.14% |
Description: MFA MFA Financial November 17, 2025
MFA Financial, Inc. (NYSE:MFA) is a U.S. real-estate investment trust that acquires and holds a diversified suite of residential mortgage assets. Its portfolio includes agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities, credit-risk-transfer securities, whole-loan positions ranging from performing to non-performing, and mortgage-servicing-right (MSR) interests. Because it meets the REIT qualification, the firm avoids federal corporate income tax provided it distributes at least 90 % of taxable earnings to shareholders.
As of the most recent filing, MFA’s loan-originated assets total roughly $6 billion, with a weighted-average coupon of about 4.2 % and a net asset value (NAV) per share near $20. The REIT’s dividend yield hovers around 8 %, reflecting its reliance on high-yielding mortgage spreads, while its leverage ratio (debt-to-equity) sits near 1.2×, indicating moderate use of financing. The primary macro driver is the Federal Reserve’s policy rate: rising rates compress the spread between mortgage-originated yields and funding costs, whereas a flattening yield curve can pressure MSR valuations.
If you’re looking to dig deeper into MFA’s risk-adjusted return profile, ValueRay’s analytical dashboards provide granular, real-time metrics that can help you assess whether the current spread environment aligns with your investment thesis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (128.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 22.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.41pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -2.24% (prev 2818 %; Δ -2820 pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO 150.1m > Net Income 128.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (6.29b) to EBITDA (212.2m) ratio: 29.66 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.97 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (105.3m) change vs 12m ago -1.02% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 58.69% (prev 0.0%; Δ 58.69pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 3.20% (prev 2.99%; Δ 0.20pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.43 (EBITDA TTM 212.2m / Interest Expense TTM 382.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.62
| (A) -0.00 = (Total Current Assets 305.2m - Total Current Liabilities 313.5m) / Total Assets 12.10b |
| (B) -0.16 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.90b / Total Assets 12.10b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 163.4m / Avg Total Assets 11.63b |
| (D) -0.18 = Book Value of Equity -1.90b / Total Liabilities 10.28b |
| Total Rating: -0.62 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 61.49
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.07% |
| 3. FCF Margin 40.36% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 3.62 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 29.66 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.85)% |
| 7. RoE 7.00% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 57.65% |
| 9. EPS Trend 51.99% |
What is the price of MFA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.02%, over one month by +5.95%, over three months by -0.72% and over the past year by +0.21%.
Is MFA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MFA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.5 | 50.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.5 | 50.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 11.7 | 21.4% |
MFA Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 10.6512
P/E Forward = 6.4061
P/S = 3.3706
P/B = 0.514
P/EG = 2.25
Beta = 1.673
Revenue TTM = 371.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 163.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 212.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.29m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 6.60b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.29b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.23b USD (940.4m + Debt 6.60b - CCE 305.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.43 (Ebit TTM 163.4m / Interest Expense TTM 382.2m)
FCF Yield = 2.07% (FCF TTM 150.1m / Enterprise Value 7.23b)
FCF Margin = 40.36% (FCF TTM 150.1m / Revenue TTM 371.8m)
Net Margin = 34.47% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Revenue TTM 371.8m)
Gross Margin = 58.69% ((Revenue TTM 371.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 153.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 87.98% (prev 94.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.60 (Enterprise Value 7.23b / Total Assets 12.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.07% (Interest Expense 4.60m / Debt 6.60b)
Taxrate = -0.21% (negative due to tax credits) (101.0k / -48.0m)
NOPAT = 163.7m (EBIT 163.4m * (1 - -0.21%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 305.2m / Total Current Liabilities 313.5m)
Debt / Equity = 3.62 (Debt 6.60b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 29.66 (Net Debt 6.29b / EBITDA 212.2m)
Debt / FCF = 41.94 (Net Debt 6.29b / FCF TTM 150.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.83b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.06% (Net Income 128.2m / Total Assets 12.10b)
RoE = 7.00% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.83b)
RoCE = 1.95% (EBIT 163.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.83b + L.T.Debt 6.55b))
RoIC = 2.05% (NOPAT 163.7m / Invested Capital 8.00b)
WACC = 1.19% (E(940.4m)/V(7.54b) * Re(9.07%) + D(6.60b)/V(7.54b) * Rd(0.07%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 9.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.18% ; FCFE base≈127.0m ; Y1≈110.8m ; Y5≈89.4m
Fair Price DCF = 13.32 (DCF Value 1.36b / Shares Outstanding 102.2m; 5y FCF grow -15.66% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 51.99 | EPS CAGR: -11.78% | SUE: -1.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 57.65 | Revenue CAGR: 4.30% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for MFA Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle