MFA Stock Analysis: MFA Financial | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 904m USD | 12M Return: 1.6% | US55272X6076 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 13.0M
EPS Trend: -61.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 96.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MFA Financial, Inc. is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT) that operates in two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans-including nonqualified mortgages, single-family rental loans, transitional loans, and legacy re-performing/non-performing loans-as well as residential mortgage-backed securities (agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities). The Lima One segment consists of a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business focused on business purpose loans for real estate investors. As a mortgage REIT, MFA relies on leveraged financing structures such as securitization transactions, term loan warehouse facilities, and repurchase agreements to fund its investment portfolio.
The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes, which generally exempts it from corporate income tax provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders-a standard structural feature of REITs that results in most earnings being passed through as dividends. MFA was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York, with its common stock listed on the NYSE under the ticker MFA. Mortgage REITs like MFA differ from equity REITs in that they primarily generate income from interest on mortgage assets and securitized products rather than from rental income on physical real estate.
- Fed rate cuts compress net interest margin on mortgage assets
- Lima One origination growth diversifies revenue beyond spread lending
- Credit losses on non-QM and re-performing loans pressure book value
| Net Income: 148.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 41.27% < 20% (prev 94.45%; Δ -53.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 252.2m > Net Income 148.2m |
| Net Debt (11.5b) to EBITDA (554.9m): 20.77 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.68 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.3m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.01% > 18% (prev 30.84%; Δ 48.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.94% > 50% (prev 3.35%; Δ 2.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM 553.7m / Interest Expense TTM 534.9m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 426.1m - Total Current Liabilities 115.8m) / Total Assets 13.7b |
| B: -0.14 (Retained Earnings -1.95b / Total Assets 13.7b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 553.7m / Avg Total Assets 12.7b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.78b / Total Liabilities 11.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.14 = B |
| DSRI: 0.51 (Receivables 115.9m/118.8m, Revenue 752.0m/390.9m) |
| GMI: 0.39 (GM 30.84% / 79.01%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.94) |
| SGI: 1.92 (Revenue 752.0m / 390.9m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 148.2m - CFO 252.2m) / TA 13.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.80 with a total of 1,353,913 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.30%, over one month by -3.51%, over three months by -4.47% and over the past year by +1.61%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.50 (which is 3.4% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
MFA Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.57. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MFA.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14 | 59.1% |
P/E Trailing = 9.0303
P/E Forward = 8.1235
P/S = 2.9843
P/B = 0.518
P/EG = 2.4813
Revenue TTM = 752.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 553.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 554.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.42b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.4m
Net Debt = 11.5b USD (calculated: Debt 11.7b - CCE 141.2m)
Enterprise Value = 12.4b USD (903.7m + Debt 11.7b - CCE 141.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.04 (Ebit TTM 553.7m / Interest Expense TTM 534.9m)
EV/FCF = 84.66x (Enterprise Value 12.4b / FCF TTM 146.8m)
FCF Yield = 1.18% (FCF TTM 146.8m / Enterprise Value 12.4b)
FCF Margin = 19.53% (FCF TTM 146.8m / Revenue TTM 752.0m)
Net Margin = 19.71% (Net Income TTM 148.2m / Revenue TTM 752.0m)
Gross Margin = 79.01% ((Revenue TTM 752.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 157.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 12.4b / Total Assets 13.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.58% (Interest Expense 534.9m / Debt 11.7b)
Taxrate = 0.0% (0.0 / 46.8m)
NOPAT = 553.7m (EBIT 553.7m * (1 - 0.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.77 (Total Current Assets 426.1m / Total Current Liabilities 153.7m)
Debt / Equity = 6.57 (Debt 11.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.78b)
Debt / EBITDA = 20.77 (Net Debt 11.5b / EBITDA 554.9m)
Debt / FCF = 78.50 (Net Debt 11.5b / FCF TTM 146.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.80b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.17% (Net Income 148.2m / Total Assets 13.7b)
RoE = 8.23% (Net Income TTM 148.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.80b)
RoCE = 6.74% (EBIT 553.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.80b + L.T.Debt 6.42b))
RoIC = 4.06% (NOPAT 553.7m / Invested Capital 13.6b)
WACC = 4.82% (E(903.7m)/V(12.6b) * Re(7.92%) + D(11.7b)/V(12.6b) * Rd(4.58%) * (1-Tc(0.0)))
Discount Rate = 7.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 2.37 | Cagr: 0.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈135.1m ; Y1≈154.8m ; Y5≈227.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.43b - Net Debt 11.5b = -8.10b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -61.43 | EPS CAGR: -13.79% | SUE: 1.87 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.45 | Revenue CAGR: 84.05% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=-14.59% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.05 | Chg30d=-17.32% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+4.8% | GrowthRev=+0.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=-5.29% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+33.4% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)