MFA Stock Analysis: MFA Financial | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 677m USD | 12M Return: -16.6% | US55272X6076 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 17.9M
EPS Trend: -61.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 96.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MFA Financial, Inc. is a U.S.-based mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans (including non-qualified, business purpose, single-family rental, and re-performing/non-performing loans) as well as residential mortgage-backed securities such as agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities. The Lima One segment functions as a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business focused on business purpose loans for real estate investors, alongside related mortgage banking activities.
The company finances its investment activities through securitization transactions, term loan warehouse financing, and repurchase agreement financing. As a REIT, MFA generally avoids federal corporate income tax by distributing at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders, a structural feature common to most mortgage REITs. The company was incorporated in 1997, is headquartered in New York, and trades on the NYSE under the ticker MFA, with a small-cap market capitalization.
- Agency MBS spreads compress on Fed policy uncertainty
- Lima One origination volume growth drives non-interest income
- Residential whole loan portfolio net interest margin shifts with rate moves
| Net Income: 148.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 41.27% < 20% (prev 94.45%; Δ -53.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 252.2m > Net Income 148.2m |
| Net Debt (11.5b) to EBITDA (420.0m): 27.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.68 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.3m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.01% > 18% (prev 30.84%; Δ 48.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.94% > 50% (prev 3.35%; Δ 2.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.78 > 6 (EBIT TTM 418.8m / Interest Expense TTM 534.9m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 426.1m - Total Current Liabilities 115.8m) / Total Assets 13.7b |
| B: -0.14 (Retained Earnings -1.95b / Total Assets 13.7b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 418.8m / Avg Total Assets 12.7b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.78b / Total Liabilities 11.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.06 = B |
| DSRI: 0.51 (Receivables 115.9m/118.8m, Revenue 752.0m/390.9m) |
| GMI: 0.39 (GM 30.84% / 79.01%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.94) |
| SGI: 1.92 (Revenue 752.0m / 390.9m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 148.2m - CFO 252.2m) / TA 13.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.55 with a total of 2,995,609 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.39%, over one month by -18.75%, over three months by -27.34% and over the past year by -16.60%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.20 (which is 5.3% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
MFA Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.71. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MFA.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.8 | 109.9% |
P/E Trailing = 6.6337
P/E Forward = 6.1576
P/S = 2.2365
P/B = 0.4873
P/EG = 2.4813
Revenue TTM = 752.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 418.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 420.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.42b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.4m
Net Debt = 11.5b USD (calculated: Debt 11.7b - CCE 141.2m)
Enterprise Value = 12.2b USD (677.3m + Debt 11.7b - CCE 141.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.78 (Ebit TTM 418.8m / Interest Expense TTM 534.9m)
EV/FCF = 81.56x (Enterprise Value 12.2b / FCF TTM 149.6m)
FCF Yield = 1.23% (FCF TTM 149.6m / Enterprise Value 12.2b)
FCF Margin = 19.90% (FCF TTM 149.6m / Revenue TTM 752.0m)
Net Margin = 19.71% (Net Income TTM 148.2m / Revenue TTM 752.0m)
Gross Margin = 79.01% ((Revenue TTM 752.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 157.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.89 (Enterprise Value 12.2b / Total Assets 13.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.58% (Interest Expense 534.9m / Debt 11.7b)
Taxrate = 0.0% (0.0 / 46.8m)
NOPAT = 418.8m (EBIT 418.8m * (1 - 0.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.77 (Total Current Assets 426.1m / Total Current Liabilities 153.7m)
Debt / Equity = 6.57 (Debt 11.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.78b)
Debt / EBITDA = 27.45 (Net Debt 11.5b / EBITDA 420.0m)
Debt / FCF = 77.03 (Net Debt 11.5b / FCF TTM 149.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.80b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.17% (Net Income 148.2m / Total Assets 13.7b)
RoE = 8.23% (Net Income TTM 148.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.80b)
RoCE = 5.10% (EBIT 418.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.80b + L.T.Debt 6.42b))
RoIC = 3.07% (NOPAT 418.8m / Invested Capital 13.6b)
WACC = 4.77% (E(677.3m)/V(12.3b) * Re(7.95%) + D(11.7b)/V(12.3b) * Rd(4.58%) * (1-Tc(0.0)))
Discount Rate = 7.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 2.37 | Cagr: 0.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈138.3m ; Y1≈158.6m ; Y5≈233.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.51b - Net Debt 11.5b = -8.01b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -61.43 | EPS CAGR: -13.79% | SUE: 1.87 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.45 | Revenue CAGR: 84.05% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.05 | Chg30d=-3.15% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+4.6% | GrowthRev=+0.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=-1.00% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+32.3% | GrowthRev=+1.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -81% (up=0, down=13)