MFA Stock Analysis: MFA Financial | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 946m USD | 12M Return: 18.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 16.5M
EPS Trend: -39.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 96.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MFA Financial, Inc. is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT) that operates in two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans-including nonqualified mortgages, single-family rental loans, transitional loans, and legacy re-performing/non-performing loans-as well as residential mortgage-backed securities (agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities). The Lima One segment consists of a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business focused on business purpose loans for real estate investors. As a mortgage REIT, MFA relies on leveraged financing structures such as securitization transactions, term loan warehouse facilities, and repurchase agreements to fund its investment portfolio.
The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes, which generally exempts it from corporate income tax provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders-a standard structural feature of REITs that results in most earnings being passed through as dividends. MFA was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York, with its common stock listed on the NYSE under the ticker MFA. Mortgage REITs like MFA differ from equity REITs in that they primarily generate income from interest on mortgage assets and securitized products rather than from rental income on physical real estate.
- Fed rate cuts compress net interest margin on mortgage assets
- Lima One origination growth diversifies revenue beyond spread lending
- Credit losses on non-QM and re-performing loans pressure book value
| Net Income: 134.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 57.66% < 20% (prev 3.34k%; Δ -3.29k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 161.9m > Net Income 134.6m |
| Net Debt (6.29b) to EBITDA (271.4m): 23.18 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.3m) vs 12m ago -0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 61.59% > 18% (prev 44.42%; Δ 17.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.79% > 50% (prev 2.37%; Δ 3.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.51 > 6 (EBIT TTM 269.7m / Interest Expense TTM 523.7m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 528.7m - Total Current Liabilities 115.8m) / Total Assets 13.2b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -1.94b / Total Assets 13.2b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 269.7m / Avg Total Assets 12.4b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 1.78b / Total Liabilities 11.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.04 = B |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 117.8m/8.79b, Revenue 716.0m/273.5m) |
| GMI: 0.72 (GM 44.42% / 61.59%) |
| AQI: 5.28 (AQ_t 0.96 / AQ_t-1 0.18) |
| SGI: 2.62 (Revenue 716.0m / 273.5m) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 134.6m - CFO 161.9m) / TA 13.2b) |
| Beneish M = -0.32 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.50 with a total of 1,166,003 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.21%, over one month by +4.67%, over three months by -1.80% and over the past year by +18.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.20 (which is 3.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
MFA Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.57. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MFA.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.1 | 48.2% |
P/E Trailing = 10.5341
P/E Forward = 8.3333
P/S = 3.2845
P/B = 0.5328
P/EG = 2.4813
Revenue TTM = 716.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 269.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 271.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.48b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.38m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 6.51b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 16.2m
Net Debt = 6.29b USD (calculated: Debt 6.51b - CCE 221.6m)
Enterprise Value = 7.24b USD (946.4m + Debt 6.51b - CCE 221.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.51 (Ebit TTM 269.7m / Interest Expense TTM 523.7m)
EV/FCF = 44.71x (Enterprise Value 7.24b / FCF TTM 161.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.24% (FCF TTM 161.9m / Enterprise Value 7.24b)
FCF Margin = 22.61% (FCF TTM 161.9m / Revenue TTM 716.0m)
Net Margin = 18.80% (Net Income TTM 134.6m / Revenue TTM 716.0m)
Gross Margin = 61.59% ((Revenue TTM 716.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 275.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 91.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.55 (Enterprise Value 7.24b / Total Assets 13.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.04% (Interest Expense 523.7m / Debt 6.51b)
Taxrate = 0.10% (137k / 134.8m)
NOPAT = 269.4m (EBIT 269.7m * (1 - 0.10%))
Current Ratio = 4.57 (Total Current Assets 528.7m / Total Current Liabilities 115.8m)
Debt / Equity = 3.66 (Debt 6.51b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.78b)
Debt / EBITDA = 23.18 (Net Debt 6.29b / EBITDA 271.4m)
Debt / FCF = 38.86 (Net Debt 6.29b / FCF TTM 161.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.81b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.09% (Net Income 134.6m / Total Assets 13.2b)
RoE = 7.43% (Net Income TTM 134.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.81b)
RoCE = 3.25% (EBIT 269.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.81b + L.T.Debt 6.48b))
RoIC = 2.06% (NOPAT 269.4m / Invested Capital 13.1b)
WACC = 8.08% (E(946.4m)/V(7.46b) * Re(8.39%) + D(6.51b)/V(7.46b) * Rd(8.04%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 8.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -11.94 | Cagr: -0.99%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈150.0m ; Y1≈171.9m ; Y5≈253.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.81b - Net Debt 6.29b = -2.48b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -39.80 | EPS CAGR: -13.14% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 96.41 | Revenue CAGR: 85.92% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=-5.34% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-1.54% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.29 | Chg30d=-4.26% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+28.8% | GrowthRev=+4.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.48 | Chg30d=-1.15% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+14.6% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -36% (up=2, down=6)