(MGY) Magnolia Oil & Gas - Overview

Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas E&P | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 5.676m USD | Total Return: 44.7% in 12m

Oil, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids
Total Rating 63
Safety 70
Buy Signal -0.93
Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: -44.9
Market Cap: 5.68B
Avg Turnover: 72.9M USD
ATR: 3.52%
Peers RS (IBD): 47.6
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility40.8%
Rel. Tail Risk4.86%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.20
Alpha14.68
Character TTM
Beta1.033
Beta Downside1.623
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD31.48%
CAGR/Max DD0.35
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MGY over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.38, "2021-06": 0.56, "2021-09": 0.67, "2021-12": 0.82, "2022-03": 0.9, "2022-06": 1.32, "2022-09": 1.29, "2022-12": 1.2, "2023-03": 0.5, "2023-06": 0.51, "2023-09": 0.54, "2023-12": 0.52, "2024-03": 0.49, "2024-06": 0.56, "2024-09": 0.53, "2024-12": 0.484, "2025-03": 0.5245, "2025-06": 0.4182, "2025-09": 0.4, "2025-12": 0.3767,
EPS CAGR: -20.73%
EPS Trend: -81.7%
Last SUE: -0.11
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MGY over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 209.107, 2021-06: 252.05, 2021-09: 285.042, 2021-12: 336.383, 2022-03: 377.839, 2022-06: 484.649, 2022-09: 482.963, 2022-12: 349.042, 2023-03: 308.382, 2023-06: 280.291, 2023-09: 315.678, 2023-12: 322.628, 2024-03: 319.417, 2024-06: 336.725, 2024-09: 333.135, 2024-12: 326.609, 2025-03: 350.3, 2025-06: 318.981, 2025-09: 324.935, 2025-12: 317.627,
Rev. CAGR: -4.52%
Rev. Trend: -50.9%
Last SUE: 1.22
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) is an independent U.S. upstream firm focused on acquiring, developing, exploring, and producing oil, natural gas, and NGLs, with its core assets in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk of South Texas.

As of Q4 2025, MGY reported net daily production of approximately 6,200 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), a 12% YoY increase, and generated $85 million of operating cash flow, while maintaining a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.1×.

Key drivers for the company include the recent rebound in WTI crude to around $78 per barrel, robust demand for NGLs in the petrochemical sector, and ongoing capital efficiency initiatives that target a 15% reduction in lifting costs per BOE.

For a deeper dive, consider reviewing ValueRay’s analytical platform for additional insights.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Oil and gas price fluctuations impact revenue
  • Production costs influence profitability
  • Regulatory changes affect drilling operations
  • Acquisition strategy drives reserve growth
  • Global energy demand dictates sales volume
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 7.0
Net Income: 325.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.28 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 11.77% < 20% (prev 9.16%; Δ 2.61% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.30 > 3% & CFO 878.6m > Net Income 325.3m
Net Debt (152.8m) to EBITDA (878.6m): 0.17 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.54 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (182.5m) vs 12m ago -4.27% < -2%
Gross Margin: 47.30% > 18% (prev 0.52%; Δ 4.68k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 45.84% > 50% (prev 46.65%; Δ -0.81% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 20.31 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 878.6m / Interest Expense TTM 21.6m)
Altman Z'' 3.59
A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 442.4m - Total Current Liabilities 288.0m) / Total Assets 2.90b
B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 966.7m / Total Assets 2.90b)
C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 439.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.86b)
D: 1.07 (Book Value of Equity 965.2m / Total Liabilities 903.9m)
Altman-Z'' Score: 3.59 = A
Beneish M -3.51
DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 174.8m/147.9m, Revenue 1.31b/1.32b)
GMI: 1.09 (GM 47.30% / 51.73%)
AQI: 0.12 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.03)
SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 1.31b / 1.32b)
TATA: -0.19 (NI 325.3m - CFO 878.6m) / TA 2.90b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.51 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of MGY shares? As of April 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.60 with a total of 2,104,567 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.43%, over one month by -2.69%, over three months by +25.98% and over the past year by +44.69%.
Is MGY a buy, sell or hold? Magnolia Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MGY.
  • StrongBuy: 6
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 8
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the MGY price?
Analysts Target Price 33.4 16.9%
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 15 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 17.1619
P/E Forward = 18.4502
P/S = 4.3268
P/B = 2.8615
Revenue TTM = 1.31b USD
EBIT TTM = 439.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 878.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 393.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 419.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 152.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.83b USD (5.68b + Debt 419.6m - CCE 266.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 20.31 (Ebit TTM 439.0m / Interest Expense TTM 21.6m)
EV/FCF = 14.83x (Enterprise Value 5.83b / FCF TTM 393.1m)
FCF Yield = 6.74% (FCF TTM 393.1m / Enterprise Value 5.83b)
FCF Margin = 29.97% (FCF TTM 393.1m / Revenue TTM 1.31b)
Net Margin = 24.79% (Net Income TTM 325.3m / Revenue TTM 1.31b)
Gross Margin = 47.30% ((Revenue TTM 1.31b - Cost of Revenue TTM 691.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.88% (prev 46.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.01 (Enterprise Value 5.83b / Total Assets 2.90b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.29% (Interest Expense 5.40m / Debt 419.6m)
Taxrate = 19.10% (16.8m / 88.2m)
NOPAT = 355.2m (EBIT 439.0m * (1 - 19.10%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 442.4m / Total Current Liabilities 288.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.22 (Debt 419.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.94b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.17 (Net Debt 152.8m / EBITDA 878.6m)
Debt / FCF = 0.39 (Net Debt 152.8m / FCF TTM 393.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.94b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.36% (Net Income 325.3m / Total Assets 2.90b)
RoE = 16.76% (Net Income TTM 325.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.94b)
RoCE = 18.81% (EBIT 439.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.94b + L.T.Debt 393.3m))
RoIC = 15.22% (NOPAT 355.2m / Invested Capital 2.33b)
WACC = 9.03% (E(5.68b)/V(6.10b) * Re(9.62%) + D(419.6m)/V(6.10b) * Rd(1.29%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.59% ; FCFF base≈403.1m ; Y1≈356.3m ; Y5≈295.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 23.47 (EV 4.51b - Net Debt 152.8m = Equity 4.36b / Shares 185.7m; r=9.03% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -14.28% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -81.72 | EPS CAGR: -20.73% | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -50.88 | Revenue CAGR: -4.52% | SUE: 1.22 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.78 | Chg7d=+0.112 | Chg30d=+0.345 | Revisions Net=+10 | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.72 | Chg7d=+0.288 | Chg30d=+0.936 | Revisions Net=+12 | Growth EPS=+55.9% | Growth Revenue=+19.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.50 | Chg7d=+0.126 | Chg30d=+0.448 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=-8.1% | Growth Revenue=-1.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (10 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 3.8% (Discount Rate 9.6% - Earnings Yield 5.8%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +25.5% (Analyst 29.3% - Implied 3.8%)
External Resources
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