MGY Stock Analysis: Magnolia Oil & Gas | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.365m USD | 12M Return: 11.8% | US5596631094 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 82.8M
EPS Trend: -40.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 79.9%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 9.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: MGY) is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas, and was incorporated in 2017. Its operations are concentrated in South Texas, primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area, targeting the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. The company trades on the NYSE as a mid-cap stock within the Energy sector and is classified under the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry.
As an independent exploration and production (E&P) company, Magnolia does not engage in refining or retail fuel distribution, instead concentrating capital on upstream activities such as drilling, completions, and reserve development in the onshore U.S. shale basins. Its dual focus on the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk provides exposure to two of the most prolific and well-understood unconventional oil plays in the United States.
- Crude oil price swings drive Eagle Ford revenue
- Austin Chalk production growth offsets decline rates
- Capital returns via dividends and debt reduction accelerate
| Net Income: 425.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.85% < 20% (prev 9.64%; Δ -10.49% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 > 3% & CFO 1.04b > Net Income 425.8m |
| Net Debt (117.2m) to EBITDA (1.02b): 0.11 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (184.6m) vs 12m ago -1.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.59% > 18% (prev 50.27%; Δ 7.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 49.32% > 50% (prev 46.46%; Δ 2.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.93 > 6 (EBIT TTM 562.0m / Interest Expense TTM 23.5m) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 295.9m - Total Current Liabilities 308.6m) / Total Assets 3.14b |
| B: 0.38 (Retained Earnings 1.19b / Total Assets 3.14b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 562.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.00b) |
| D: 2.16 (Book Value of Equity 2.15b / Total Liabilities 993.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.73 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 189.2m/160.3m, Revenue 1.48b/1.33b) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 50.27% / 57.59%) |
| AQI: 2.53 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 1.48b / 1.33b) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI 425.8m - CFO 1.04b) / TA 3.14b) |
| Beneish M = -2.12 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of September 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.80 with a total of 2,010,878 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.10%, over one month by +9.82%, over three months by -4.28% and over the past year by +11.81%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.50 (which is 4.9% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Magnolia Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MGY.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 32.9 | 22.7% |
P/E Trailing = 11.4629
P/E Forward = 9.7087
P/S = 4.3013
P/B = 2.9416
Revenue TTM = 1.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 562.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 393.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 413.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.5m
Net Debt = 117.2m USD (calculated: Debt 413.1m - CCE 295.9m)
Enterprise Value = 6.48b USD (6.37b + Debt 413.1m - CCE 295.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.93 (Ebit TTM 562.0m / Interest Expense TTM 23.5m)
EV/FCF = 12.33x (Enterprise Value 6.48b / FCF TTM 525.7m)
FCF Yield = 8.11% (FCF TTM 525.7m / Enterprise Value 6.48b)
FCF Margin = 35.52% (FCF TTM 525.7m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Net Margin = 28.77% (Net Income TTM 425.8m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Gross Margin = 57.59% ((Revenue TTM 1.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 627.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.54% (prev 48.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.06 (Enterprise Value 6.48b / Total Assets 3.14b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.68% (Interest Expense 23.5m / Debt 413.1m)
Taxrate = 19.63% (105.6m / 537.8m)
NOPAT = 451.7m (EBIT 562.0m * (1 - 19.63%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 295.9m / Total Current Liabilities 308.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 413.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.11 (Net Debt 117.2m / EBITDA 1.02b)
Debt / FCF = 0.22 (Net Debt 117.2m / FCF TTM 525.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.02b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.19% (Net Income 425.8m / Total Assets 3.14b)
RoE = 21.10% (Net Income TTM 425.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.02b)
RoCE = 23.31% (EBIT 562.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.02b + L.T.Debt 393.6m))
RoIC = 16.27% (NOPAT 451.7m / Invested Capital 2.78b)
WACC = 7.64% (E(6.37b)/V(6.78b) * Re(7.84%) + D(413.1m)/V(6.78b) * Rd(5.68%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -26.02 | Cagr: 0.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈471.3m ; Y1≈540.3m ; Y5≈795.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 50.00 (EV 12.0b - Net Debt 117.2m = Equity 11.8b / Shares 237.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -39.97 | EPS CAGR: -4.24% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 79.86 | Revenue CAGR: 4.36% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=-4.17% | Revisions=-77% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.98 | Chg30d=+9.53% | Revisions=-6% | GrowthEPS=+70.8% | GrowthRev=+47.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.24 | Chg30d=+35.07% | Revisions=+81% | GrowthEPS=+8.8% | GrowthRev=+39.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +5% (up=19, down=17)