MGY Stock Analysis: Magnolia Oil & Gas | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.122m USD | 12M Return: 15.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 67.9M
EPS Trend: -78.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 19.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: MGY) is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas, and was incorporated in 2017. Its operations are concentrated in South Texas, primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area, targeting the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. The company trades on the NYSE as a mid-cap stock within the Energy sector and is classified under the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry.
As an independent exploration and production (E&P) company, Magnolia does not engage in refining or retail fuel distribution, instead concentrating capital on upstream activities such as drilling, completions, and reserve development in the onshore U.S. shale basins. Its dual focus on the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk provides exposure to two of the most prolific and well-understood unconventional oil plays in the United States.
- Crude oil price swings drive Eagle Ford revenue
- Austin Chalk production growth offsets decline rates
- Capital returns via dividends and debt reduction accelerate
| Net Income: 322.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.21% < 20% (prev 7.56%; Δ -5.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.29 > 3% & CFO 850.8m > Net Income 322.2m |
| Net Debt (308.0m) to EBITDA (878.7m): 0.35 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (183.3m) vs 12m ago -2.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 46.49% > 18% (prev 51.64%; Δ -5.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 45.42% > 50% (prev 46.95%; Δ -1.53% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 19.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 429.7m / Interest Expense TTM 22.4m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 319.7m - Total Current Liabilities 290.5m) / Total Assets 2.94b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 1.04b / Total Assets 2.94b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 429.7m / Avg Total Assets 2.91b) |
| D: 2.24 (Book Value of Equity 2.04b / Total Liabilities 908.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.56 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.25 (Receivables 194.2m/157.9m, Revenue 1.32b/1.35b) |
| GMI: 1.11 (GM 51.64% / 46.49%) |
| AQI: 0.35 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 1.32b / 1.35b) |
| TATA: -0.18 (NI 322.2m - CFO 850.8m) / TA 2.94b) |
| Beneish M = -3.13 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.53 with a total of 6,446,699 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.38%, over one month by -5.90%, over three months by -8.19% and over the past year by +15.64%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 24.30 (which is 4.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Magnolia Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MGY.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 32.5 | 27.4% |
P/E Trailing = 15.5434
P/E Forward = 9.2678
P/S = 3.88
P/B = 2.4283
Revenue TTM = 1.32b USD
EBIT TTM = 429.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 878.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 393.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 19.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 432.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.5m
Net Debt = 308.0m USD (calculated: Debt 432.4m - CCE 124.4m)
Enterprise Value = 5.43b USD (5.12b + Debt 432.4m - CCE 124.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 19.21 (Ebit TTM 429.7m / Interest Expense TTM 22.4m)
EV/FCF = 14.87x (Enterprise Value 5.43b / FCF TTM 365.2m)
FCF Yield = 6.73% (FCF TTM 365.2m / Enterprise Value 5.43b)
FCF Margin = 27.67% (FCF TTM 365.2m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Net Margin = 24.40% (Net Income TTM 322.2m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Gross Margin = 46.49% ((Revenue TTM 1.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 706.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.98% (prev 42.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.84 (Enterprise Value 5.43b / Total Assets 2.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.17% (Interest Expense 22.4m / Debt 432.4m)
Taxrate = 18.63% (75.9m / 407.4m)
NOPAT = 349.7m (EBIT 429.7m * (1 - 18.63%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 319.7m / Total Current Liabilities 290.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.21 (Debt 432.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.04b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.35 (Net Debt 308.0m / EBITDA 878.7m)
Debt / FCF = 0.84 (Net Debt 308.0m / FCF TTM 365.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.97b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.08% (Net Income 322.2m / Total Assets 2.94b)
RoE = 16.38% (Net Income TTM 322.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.97b)
RoCE = 18.21% (EBIT 429.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.97b + L.T.Debt 393.4m))
RoIC = 13.41% (NOPAT 349.7m / Invested Capital 2.61b)
WACC = 8.54% (E(5.12b)/V(5.55b) * Re(8.91%) + D(432.4m)/V(5.55b) * Rd(5.17%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -30.95 | Cagr: -1.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.37% ; FCFF base≈393.0m ; Y1≈344.6m ; Y5≈278.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 21.75 (EV 4.33b - Net Debt 308.0m = Equity 4.02b / Shares 184.9m; r=8.54% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -78.85 | EPS CAGR: -13.09% | SUE: 0.66 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 18.96 | Revenue CAGR: 0.84% | SUE: 1.32 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+2.08% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=17
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.63 | Chg30d=-19.71% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.70 | Chg30d=-8.02% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+54.7% | GrowthRev=+21.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.43 | Chg30d=-7.33% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=-10.0% | GrowthRev=-3.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=7, down=7)