Overview Dividends

(MGY) Magnolia Oil & Gas - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US5596631094

Oil, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids

MGY EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -31.66%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -62.2%

MGY Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): -2.57%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 29.8%

Risk
Volatility	31.9%
Value at Risk 5%th	53.2%

Reward
Sharpe Ratio	-0.95
Alpha	-32.84

Character
Hurst Exponent	0.328
Beta	1.238

Description: MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas November 07, 2025

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: MGY) is a U.S.-based independent oil and natural gas producer that acquires, develops, explores, and extracts hydrocarbons primarily in South Texas. Its core assets sit in Karnes County and the Giddings area, targeting the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. The company was incorporated in 2017 and operates from its headquarters in Houston, Texas.

As of the most recent 2023 quarterly filing, MGY reported net production of roughly 2.5 MMboe (million barrels of oil equivalent) with a 2023 cash flow conversion of about 1.2 × production, reflecting a modest but positive operating margin despite volatile crude prices. The firm’s cost structure is anchored to a $12-$15 per barrel all-in finding-and-development (F&D) expense, which is competitive within the Eagle Ford basin. Macro-level drivers that will shape MGY’s near-term outlook include U.S. shale output trends, OPEC+ production decisions, and the spread between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Henry Hub natural gas prices, all of which directly affect its break-even oil price of roughly $38 per barrel.

For a deeper dive into MGY’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent, data-driven dashboard you may find useful.

MGY Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	4,276m
Sub-Industry	Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
IPO / Inception	2017-05-05

MGY Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	-14.9%
Fundamental	80.7%
Dividend Rating	74.0%
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-28.3%
Analyst Rating	3.53 of 5

MGY Dividends

Dividend Yield 12m	2.05%
Yield on Cost 5y	9.83%
Annual Growth 5y	86.63%
Payout Consistency	100.0%
Payout Ratio	32.5%

MGY Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	-60.5%
Growth Correlation 12m	-24.9%
Growth Correlation 5y	74.6%
CAGR	-4.83%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	-0.15
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	-0.32
Current Volume	2426.8k
Average Volume	2258.8k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5

Net Income (423.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 79.2m TTM)

FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 12.57pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -2.91% (prev 10.19%; Δ -13.10pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.31 (>3.0%) and CFO 892.9m > Net Income 423.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (-280.5m) to EBITDA (859.0m) ratio: -0.33 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.88 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (186.6m) change vs 12m ago -0.66% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 36.79% (prev 52.39%; Δ -15.60pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 46.07% (prev 46.67%; Δ -0.61pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 10.09 (EBITDA TTM 859.0m / Interest Expense TTM 42.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.09

(A) -0.01 = (Total Current Assets 280.5m - Total Current Liabilities 318.9m) / Total Assets 2.92b

(B) 0.32 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 925.7m / Total Assets 2.92b

(D) 1.08 = Book Value of Equity 925.8m / Total Liabilities 853.5m

Total Rating: 3.09 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 80.70

1. Piotroski 6.50pt = 1.50

2. FCF Yield 9.48% = 4.74

3. FCF Margin 31.50% = 7.50

4. Debt/Equity 0.21 = 2.48

5. Debt/Ebitda -0.33 = 2.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= 8.82)% = 11.02

7. RoE 22.01% = 1.83

8. Rev. Trend 29.77% = 2.23

9. EPS Trend -62.16% = -3.11

What is the price of MGY shares?

As of November 10, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 21.96 with a total of 2,426,834 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.57%, over one month by -7.26%, over three months by -5.10% and over the past year by -18.64%.

Is Magnolia Oil & Gas a good stock to buy?

Yes, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYSE:MGY) is currently (November 2025) a good stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 80.70 and therefor a positive outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of MGY is around 18.58 USD . This means that MGY is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -15.39%.

Is MGY a buy, sell or hold?

Magnolia Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MGY.

Strong Buy: 6
Buy: 1
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 2

What are the forecasts/targets for the MGY price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	26.9	22.4%
Analysts Target Price	26.9	22.4%
ValueRay Target Price	20.9	-4.7%

MGY Fundamental Data Overview November 01, 2025

Market Cap USD = 4.28b (4.28b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.45
P/E Forward = 12.6103
P/S = 3.2175
P/B = 2.2189
Beta = 1.238
Revenue TTM = 1.32b USD
EBIT TTM = 430.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 859.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 392.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 12.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 392.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -280.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.39b USD (4.28b + Debt 392.5m - CCE 280.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.09 (Ebit TTM 430.2m / Interest Expense TTM 42.6m)
FCF Yield = 9.48% (FCF TTM 416.0m / Enterprise Value 4.39b)
FCF Margin = 31.50% (FCF TTM 416.0m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Net Margin = 32.07% (Net Income TTM 423.5m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Gross Margin = 36.79% ((Revenue TTM 1.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 835.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -3.33% (prev 47.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.50 (Enterprise Value 4.39b / Total Assets 2.92b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.90% (Interest Expense 27.1m / Debt 392.5m)
Taxrate = -64.38% (out of range, set to none) (-61.4m / 95.4m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 0.88 (Total Current Assets 280.5m / Total Current Liabilities 318.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.21 (Debt 392.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last fiscal year 1.91b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.33 (Net Debt -280.5m / EBITDA 859.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.67 (Net Debt -280.5m / FCF TTM 416.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.92b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.49% (Net Income 423.5m / Total Assets 2.92b)
RoE = 22.01% (Net Income TTM 423.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.92b)
RoCE = 18.57% (EBIT 430.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.92b + L.T.Debt 392.5m))
RoIC = 18.51% (EBIT 430.2m / (Assets 2.92b - Curr.Liab 318.9m - Cash 280.5m))
WACC = 9.69% (E(4.28b)/V(4.67b) * Re(10.58%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 10.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.54%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.95% ; FCFE base≈268.3m ; Y1≈176.1m ; Y5≈80.5m
Fair Price DCF = 5.96 (DCF Value 1.10b / Shares Outstanding 185.3m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -62.16 | EPS CAGR: -31.66% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 29.77 | Revenue CAGR: -2.57% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for MGY Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle