MGY Stock Analysis: Magnolia Oil & Gas | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.964m USD | 12M Return: 14.7% | US5596631094 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 96.9M
EPS Trend: -40.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 79.9%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: MGY) is an independent U.S. upstream energy company focused on the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas, and has been publicly traded on the NYSE since its May 2017 IPO. Independent E&Ps like Magnolia typically do not own midstream or downstream assets, instead generating revenue primarily through the sale of produced hydrocarbons to refiners, processors, and marketers under both long-term and spot contracts.
Magnolias operations are concentrated in South Texas, with core assets located in Karnes County and the Giddings area. These positions target two well-established producing formations: the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk. The Eagle Ford is one of the most prolific U.S. unconventional oil plays, while the Austin Chalk is a hybrid conventional/unconventional carbonate trend, and operators in this region often report strong well economics and favorable breakeven costs relative to many other domestic basins.
- WTI crude price fluctuations drive Eagle Ford revenue and margins
- Austin Chalk development program expands oil production growth
- Capital returns accelerate through dividends and share buyback program
| Net Income: 425.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.85% < 20% (prev 9.64%; Δ -10.49% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 > 3% & CFO 1.04b > Net Income 425.8m |
| Net Debt (117.2m) to EBITDA (1.02b): 0.12 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (184.6m) vs 12m ago -1.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.59% > 18% (prev 50.27%; Δ 7.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 49.32% > 50% (prev 46.46%; Δ 2.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.93 > 6 (EBIT TTM 562.0m / Interest Expense TTM 23.5m) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 295.9m - Total Current Liabilities 308.6m) / Total Assets 3.14b |
| B: 0.38 (Retained Earnings 1.19b / Total Assets 3.14b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 562.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.00b) |
| D: 2.16 (Book Value of Equity 2.15b / Total Liabilities 993.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.73 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 189.2m/160.3m, Revenue 1.48b/1.33b) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 50.27% / 57.59%) |
| AQI: 2.53 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 1.48b / 1.33b) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI 425.8m - CFO 1.04b) / TA 3.14b) |
| Beneish M = -2.12 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of October 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.43 with a total of 1,883,730 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.38%, over one month by +4.82%, over three months by +2.09% and over the past year by +14.72%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 24.30 (which is 4.4% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Magnolia Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.37. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MGY.
- StrongBuy: 12
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 32.8 | 28.9% |
P/E Trailing = 11.1184
P/E Forward = 9.1827
P/S = 4.7054
P/B = 3.0617
Revenue TTM = 1.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 562.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 393.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 413.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.5m
Net Debt = 117.2m USD (calculated: Debt 413.1m - CCE 295.9m)
Enterprise Value = 7.08b USD (6.96b + Debt 413.1m - CCE 295.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.93 (Ebit TTM 562.0m / Interest Expense TTM 23.5m)
EV/FCF = 13.47x (Enterprise Value 7.08b / FCF TTM 525.7m)
FCF Yield = 7.42% (FCF TTM 525.7m / Enterprise Value 7.08b)
FCF Margin = 35.52% (FCF TTM 525.7m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Net Margin = 28.77% (Net Income TTM 425.8m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Gross Margin = 57.59% ((Revenue TTM 1.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 627.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.54% (prev 48.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.25 (Enterprise Value 7.08b / Total Assets 3.14b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.68% (Interest Expense 23.5m / Debt 413.1m)
Taxrate = 19.63% (105.6m / 537.8m)
NOPAT = 451.7m (EBIT 562.0m * (1 - 19.63%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 295.9m / Total Current Liabilities 308.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 413.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.12 (Net Debt 117.2m / EBITDA 1.02b)
Debt / FCF = 0.22 (Net Debt 117.2m / FCF TTM 525.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.02b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.19% (Net Income 425.8m / Total Assets 3.14b)
RoE = 21.10% (Net Income TTM 425.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.02b)
RoCE = 23.31% (EBIT 562.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.02b + L.T.Debt 393.6m))
RoIC = 16.27% (NOPAT 451.7m / Invested Capital 2.78b)
WACC = 7.18% (E(6.96b)/V(7.38b) * Re(7.34%) + D(413.1m)/V(7.38b) * Rd(5.68%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -26.02 | Cagr: 0.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈471.3m ; Y1≈540.3m ; Y5≈795.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 44.02 (EV 12.0b - Net Debt 117.2m = Equity 11.8b / Shares 269.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -39.97 | EPS CAGR: -4.24% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 79.86 | Revenue CAGR: 4.36% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=-3.09% | Revisions=+36% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.95 | Chg30d=-3.37% | Revisions=+13% | GrowthEPS=+69.1% | GrowthRev=+55.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.07 | Chg30d=-5.14% | Revisions=-19% | GrowthEPS=+4.0% | GrowthRev=+35.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +10% (up=20, down=16)