(MGY) Magnolia Oil & Gas - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US5596631094

Oil, Gas, Liquids

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Market Cap in USD: 4,249m

IPO / Inception: 2017-05-05
12m vs SPY: -24.2%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -16.28%
EPS Trend: -77.9%

Last SUE: 0.16
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -0.92%
Rev. Trend: -43.8%

Last SUE: 0.56
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	2.61%
Yield on Cost 5y	7.30%
Yield CAGR 5y	65.49%
Payout Consistency	100.0%
Payout Ratio	32.5%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	28.3%
Value at Risk 5%th	47.9%
Relative Tail Risk	2.94%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.17
Alpha	-30.67
CAGR/Max DD	0.04

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.309
Beta	1.168
Beta Downside	1.557

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	31.48%
Mean DD	11.33%
Median DD	11.25%

Description: MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas January 10, 2026

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: MGY) is an independent U.S. oil and natural gas producer focused on acquiring, developing, exploring, and extracting hydrocarbons, primarily in South Texas’s Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations. The firm, incorporated in 2017 and headquartered in Houston, operates chiefly in Karnes County and the Giddings area.

Key operating metrics (Q4 2023) show net production of approximately 12 MMcf/d of natural gas and 2,800 boe/d of oil-equivalent, with a cash-flow conversion rate of 1.2 × EBITDA, reflecting solid cash generation relative to its modest debt load of $150 million. The company’s economics are tightly linked to WTI crude price movements and natural gas differentials, while broader sector drivers include U.S. shale output trends, OPEC + production decisions, and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate stance, all of which can materially affect earnings volatility.

For a deeper, data-driven assessment of MGY’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0

Net Income (342.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 79.2m TTM)

FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.77pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 11.40% (prev 10.19%; Δ 1.21pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.31 (>3.0%) and CFO 892.9m > Net Income 342.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (131.1m) to EBITDA (889.9m) ratio: 0.15 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.47 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (184.7m) change vs 12m ago -1.66% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 49.02% (prev 52.81%; Δ -3.80pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 46.07% (prev 46.67%; Δ -0.61pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 22.05 (EBITDA TTM 889.9m / Interest Expense TTM 20.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.51

(A) 0.05 = (Total Current Assets 469.5m - Total Current Liabilities 318.9m) / Total Assets 2.92b

(B) 0.32 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 925.7m / Total Assets 2.92b

(D) 1.01 = Book Value of Equity 925.8m / Total Liabilities 917.2m

Total Rating: 3.51 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 70.94

1. Piotroski 6.0pt

2. FCF Yield 9.30%

3. FCF Margin 30.85%

4. Debt/Equity 0.21

5. Debt/Ebitda 0.15

6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.83)%

7. RoE 17.69%

8. Rev. Trend -43.84%

9. EPS Trend -77.93%

What is the price of MGY shares?

As of January 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 22.84 with a total of 3,755,373 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.53%, over one month by +2.24%, over three months by -0.36% and over the past year by -9.09%.

Is MGY a buy, sell or hold?

Magnolia Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MGY.

Strong Buy: 6
Buy: 1
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 2

What are the forecasts/targets for the MGY price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	26.5	16%
Analysts Target Price	26.5	16%
ValueRay Target Price	24	4.9%

MGY Fundamental Data Overview January 13, 2026

P/E Trailing = 12.3722
P/E Forward = 13.0208
P/S = 3.2173
P/B = 2.0936
Revenue TTM = 1.32b USD
EBIT TTM = 461.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 889.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 393.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 411.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 131.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.38b USD (4.25b + Debt 411.5m - CCE 280.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 22.05 (Ebit TTM 461.0m / Interest Expense TTM 20.9m)
EV/FCF = 10.75x (Enterprise Value 4.38b / FCF TTM 407.5m)
FCF Yield = 9.30% (FCF TTM 407.5m / Enterprise Value 4.38b)
FCF Margin = 30.85% (FCF TTM 407.5m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Net Margin = 25.90% (Net Income TTM 342.1m / Revenue TTM 1.32b)
Gross Margin = 49.02% ((Revenue TTM 1.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 673.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.17% (prev 47.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.50 (Enterprise Value 4.38b / Total Assets 2.92b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.30% (Interest Expense 5.36m / Debt 411.5m)
Taxrate = 18.03% (17.2m / 95.4m)
NOPAT = 377.9m (EBIT 461.0m * (1 - 18.03%))
Current Ratio = 1.47 (Total Current Assets 469.5m / Total Current Liabilities 318.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.21 (Debt 411.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.95b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.15 (Net Debt 131.1m / EBITDA 889.9m)
Debt / FCF = 0.32 (Net Debt 131.1m / FCF TTM 407.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.93b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.93% (Net Income 342.1m / Total Assets 2.92b)
RoE = 17.69% (Net Income TTM 342.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.93b)
RoCE = 19.81% (EBIT 461.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.93b + L.T.Debt 393.1m))
RoIC = 16.24% (NOPAT 377.9m / Invested Capital 2.33b)
WACC = 9.41% (E(4.25b)/V(4.66b) * Re(10.22%) + D(411.5m)/V(4.66b) * Rd(1.30%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 10.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.82%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.90% ; FCFF base≈313.9m ; Y1≈310.4m ; Y5≈321.4m
Fair Price DCF = 23.54 (EV 4.44b - Net Debt 131.1m = Equity 4.31b / Shares 183.2m; r=9.41% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -1.90% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -77.93 | EPS CAGR: -16.28% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -43.84 | Revenue CAGR: -0.92% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=-0.014 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=14
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.72 | Chg30d=-0.026 | Revisions Net=-4 | Growth EPS=-3.6% | Growth Revenue=+1.5%

Additional Sources for MGY Stock

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