MLI Stock Analysis: Mueller Industries | NYSE

Metal Fabrication | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 13.775m USD | 12M Return: 47% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Copper Tubes, Brass Rods, Heat Exchangers, Plumbing Fittings
Total Rating 56
Safety 80
Buy Signal -0.20
Metal Fabrication
Industry Rotation: -22.3
Market Cap: 13.8B
Avg Turnover: 109M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility29.6%
VaR 5th Pctl4.86%
VaR vs Median-0.23%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.23
Rel. Str. IBD56.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group53
Character TTM
Beta1.014
Beta Downside0.907
Hurst Exponent0.584
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD27.79%
CAGR/Max DD1.76
CAGR/Mean DD6.65
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MLI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.92, "2021-09": 3.01, "2021-12": 2.21, "2022-03": 2.78, "2022-06": 0.91, "2022-09": 0.69, "2022-12": 0.66, "2023-03": 0.77, "2023-06": 0.65, "2023-09": 0.6, "2023-12": 0.62, "2024-03": 0.61, "2024-06": 0.71, "2024-09": 0.74, "2024-12": 0.59, "2025-03": 0.7, "2025-06": 0.98, "2025-09": 0.91, "2025-12": 0.66, "2026-03": 0.94, "2026-06": 1.13,
EPS CAGR: 13.86%
EPS Trend: 90.6%
Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of MLI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 1012.592, 2021-09: 982.248, 2021-12: 956.357, 2022-03: 1010.002, 2022-06: 1150.042, 2022-09: 944.83, 2022-12: 877.581, 2023-03: 971.192, 2023-06: 896.984, 2023-09: 819.792, 2023-12: 732.377, 2024-03: 849.654, 2024-06: 997.745, 2024-09: 997.831, 2024-12: 923.536, 2025-03: 1000.165, 2025-06: 1138.173, 2025-09: 1077.824, 2025-12: 962.385, 2026-03: 1193.005, 2026-06: 1427.923,
Rev. CAGR: 12.17%
Rev. Trend: 94.2%
Last SUE: 0.41
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -2.8% 14
Feb +3.2% 14
Mar -5.0% 57
Apr -0.7% 0
May +0.1% 0
Jun -0.3% 0
Jul +5.3% 47
Aug -2.7% 49
Sep -4.1% 28
Oct +4.9% 59
Nov +1.9% 48
Dec +0.5% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MLI Mueller Industries

Mueller Industries, Inc. is a U.S.-based manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products, operating since 1917 and headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee. The company sells into plumbing, refrigeration, HVAC, automotive, construction, utility, and electrical transmission markets across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Asia, the Middle East, and Mexico.

The business is organized into three segments: Piping Systems (copper tubes, fittings, line sets, and pipe nipples sold to wholesalers, distributors, building material retailers, and HVAC OEMs), Industrial Metals (brass and copper alloy rods and bars, cold-form aluminum and copper products, machined components, forgings, valves, fluid control solutions, and specialty tubing for industrial, construction, and utility customers), and Climate (valves, protection devices, brass fittings, coaxial heat exchangers, twisted tubes, high-pressure HVAC components, and insulated flexible duct systems).

As a large-cap industrial machinery and components company, Muellers business model is closely tied to construction, housing, and HVAC end-markets, with copper price exposure and OEM customer relationships being key drivers of revenue. The companys diversified product portfolio and geographic footprint provide exposure to both domestic and international demand cycles.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Copper price swings pressure Piping Systems margins
  • HVAC demand recovery lifts Climate segment revenue
  • Housing starts drive plumbing and refrigeration product volumes
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 850.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.14 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 48.26% < 20% (prev 43.31%; Δ 4.95% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 451.1m > Net Income 850.5m
Net Debt (-1.37b) to EBITDA (1.20b): -1.15 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.78 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (221.2m) vs 12m ago -0.31% < -2%
Gross Margin: 27.31% > 18% (prev 28.47%; Δ -1.16% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 120.4% > 50% (prev 116.4%; Δ 3.96% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.65k > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.13b / Interest Expense TTM 200k)
Altman Z'' 10.00
A: 0.53 (Total Current Assets 2.85b - Total Current Liabilities 595.8m) / Total Assets 4.26b
B: 0.98 (Retained Earnings 4.17b / Total Assets 4.26b)
C: 0.29 (EBIT TTM 1.13b / Avg Total Assets 3.87b)
D: 5.19 (Book Value of Equity 3.55b / Total Liabilities 683.3m)
Altman-Z'' = 14.07 = AAA
Beneish M -2.80
DSRI: 1.12 (Receivables 761.9m/592.6m, Revenue 4.66b/4.06b)
GMI: 1.04 (GM 28.47% / 27.31%)
AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.20)
SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 4.66b / 4.06b)
TATA: 0.09 (NI 850.5m - CFO 451.1m) / TA 4.26b)
Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of MLI shares?

As of July 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 63.91 with a total of 1,341,837 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.08%, over one month by -0.30%, over three months by -6.11% and over the past year by +46.98%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 58.60 (which is 8.3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is MLI a buy, sell or hold?

Mueller Industries has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MLI.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MLI price?
Analysts Target Price 74.8 17%
Mueller Industries (MLI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 25 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 13.8b (13.8b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 17.2486
P/E Forward = 18.1818
P/S = 2.9639
P/B = 3.905
P/EG = 3.4081
Revenue TTM = 4.66b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.13b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.20b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.24m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.59m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 44.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.4m
Net Debt = -1.37b USD (calculated: Debt 44.1m - CCE 1.42b)
Enterprise Value = 12.4b USD (13.8b + Debt 44.1m - CCE 1.42b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.65k (Ebit TTM 1.13b / Interest Expense TTM 200k)
EV/FCF = 33.15x (Enterprise Value 12.4b / FCF TTM 374.1m)
FCF Yield = 3.02% (FCF TTM 374.1m / Enterprise Value 12.4b)
FCF Margin = 8.03% (FCF TTM 374.1m / Revenue TTM 4.66b)
Net Margin = 18.25% (Net Income TTM 850.5m / Revenue TTM 4.66b)
Gross Margin = 27.31% ((Revenue TTM 4.66b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.39b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.69% (prev 30.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.91 (Enterprise Value 12.4b / Total Assets 4.26b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.45% (Interest Expense 200k / Debt 44.1m)
Taxrate = 24.70% (279.0m / 1.13b)
NOPAT = 850.6m (EBIT 1.13b * (1 - 24.70%))
Current Ratio = 4.78 (Total Current Assets 2.85b / Total Current Liabilities 595.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 44.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.55b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.15 (Net Debt -1.37b / EBITDA 1.20b)
Debt / FCF = -3.67 (Net Debt -1.37b / FCF TTM 374.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 21.96% (Net Income 850.5m / Total Assets 4.26b)
RoE = 27.33% (Net Income TTM 850.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.11b)
RoCE = 36.24% (EBIT 1.13b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.11b + L.T.Debt 5.24m))
RoIC = 24.76% (NOPAT 850.6m / Invested Capital 3.44b)
WACC = 9.52% (E(13.8b)/V(13.8b) * Re(9.55%) + D(44.1m)/V(13.8b) * Rd(0.45%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -89.22 | Cagr: -1.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.84% ; FCFF base≈460.6m ; Y1≈404.0m ; Y5≈326.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 26.07 (EV 4.39b - Net Debt -1.37b = Equity 5.76b / Shares 221.1m; r=9.52% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.59 | EPS CAGR: 13.86% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 94.23 | Revenue CAGR: 12.17% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=+1.40% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.20 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+32.5% | GrowthRev=+14.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.38 | Chg30d=+0.11% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+4.3% | GrowthRev=+8.7%