MNR Stock Analysis: Mach Natural Resources | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.122m USD | 12M Return: 0.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.06M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 50.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 2.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE: MNR) is an independent upstream oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. Incorporated in 2023 and headquartered in Oklahoma City, the company operates across three key U.S. basins: the Anadarko Basin (Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle), the San Juan Basin (New Mexico and Colorado), and the Permian Basin (West Texas). Mach Natural Resources also owns midstream assets, gathering systems, processing plants, and water infrastructure, while operating proved developed producing (PDP) wells.
As an upstream-focused operator, the company sits within the Energy sectors Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry, which typically generates revenue through the sale of produced hydrocarbons at commodity-linked prices. Mach Natural Resources listed on the NYSE in October 2023 and is classified as a mid-cap stock.
- WTI and Henry Hub prices swing revenue and margins
- Anadarko and Permian production growth lifts oil output
- Variable distribution policy tracks commodity price volatility
| Net Income: 235.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -10.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5.18% < 20% (prev -9.00%; Δ 3.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 534.8m > Net Income 235.0m |
| Net Debt (1.12b) to EBITDA (535.0m): 2.10 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (168.3m) vs 12m ago 50.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.88% > 18% (prev 33.09%; Δ 3.78% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.86% > 50% (prev 42.69%; Δ 2.17% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.58 > 6 (EBIT TTM 117.2m / Interest Expense TTM 74.0m) |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 229.3m/156.7m, Revenue 1.33b/957.2m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 33.09% / 36.88%) |
| AQI: 0.69 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 1.39 (Revenue 1.33b / 957.2m) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 235.0m - CFO 534.8m) / TA 3.69b) |
| Beneish M = -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.91 with a total of 288,960 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.14%, over one month by -5.56%, over three months by +6.26% and over the past year by +0.74%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.40 (which is 4% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Mach Natural Resources has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MNR.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.4 | 42.8% |
P/E Trailing = 17.1892
P/S = 1.834
P/B = 1.1478
Revenue TTM = 1.33b USD
EBIT TTM = 117.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 535.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.13b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.49m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.17b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 20.1m
Net Debt = 1.12b USD (calculated: Debt 1.17b - CCE 52.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.24b USD (2.12b + Debt 1.17b - CCE 52.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.58 (Ebit TTM 117.2m / Interest Expense TTM 74.0m)
EV/FCF = 33.50x (Enterprise Value 3.24b / FCF TTM 96.8m)
FCF Yield = 2.99% (FCF TTM 96.8m / Enterprise Value 3.24b)
FCF Margin = 7.27% (FCF TTM 96.8m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Net Margin = 17.65% (Net Income TTM 235.0m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Gross Margin = 36.88% ((Revenue TTM 1.33b - Cost of Revenue TTM 840.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.06% (prev 29.70%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.88 (Enterprise Value 3.24b / Total Assets 3.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.30% (Interest Expense 74.0m / Debt 1.17b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 92.6m (EBIT 117.2m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 342.4m / Total Current Liabilities 411.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.64 (Debt 1.17b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.10 (Net Debt 1.12b / EBITDA 535.0m)
Debt / FCF = 11.59 (Net Debt 1.12b / FCF TTM 96.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.79b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.92% (Net Income 235.0m / Total Assets 3.69b)
RoE = 13.10% (Net Income TTM 235.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.79b)
RoCE = 4.00% (EBIT 117.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.79b + L.T.Debt 1.13b))
RoIC = 2.86% (NOPAT 92.6m / Invested Capital 3.24b)
WACC = 6.28% (E(2.12b)/V(3.30b) * Re(7.0%) + D(1.17b)/V(3.30b) * Rd(6.30%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 28.94%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈172.6m ; Y1≈151.3m ; Y5≈122.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.04 (EV 1.96b - Net Debt 1.12b = Equity 840.8m / Shares 166.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.91 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 50.14 | Revenue CAGR: 10.43% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+31.87% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=+15.25% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=-0.81% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+16.7% | GrowthRev=+22.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=-3.25% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+3.8% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -8% (up=4, down=5)