(MNR) Mach Natural Resources - Overview
Stock: Oil, Natural Gas, NGL, Midstream, Water Infrastructure
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 14.22% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 14.39% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -39.38% |
| Payout Consistency | 85.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 2.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.34% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.80 |
| Alpha | -33.14 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.627 |
| Beta Downside | 1.156 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.70% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.14 |
Description: MNR Mach Natural Resources January 15, 2026
Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) is a newly-formed upstream oil-and-gas operator, incorporated in 2023 and based in Oklahoma City. The firm concentrates on acquiring, developing, and producing crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs within the Anadarko Basin, covering western Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and the Texas panhandle, while also holding a modest portfolio of mid-stream assets, processing plants, and water-service infrastructure.
Key operational metrics (as of the latest quarterly filing) show an average daily production of roughly 6,800 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), with a proven reserve base of about 45 MMBOE and a cash-flow-from-operations margin near 55 % of revenue-both figures that sit above the sector median for independent E&P firms of comparable size. The company’s exposure to the Anadarko Basin gives it a cost advantage; the basin’s average all-in finding-and-development cost is approximately $7.5 / BOE, well under the U.S. on-shore average of $12 / BOE, which should help sustain profitability even if crude prices retreat.
Macroeconomic drivers that will likely shape MNR’s near-term performance include the ongoing rebound in U.S. natural-gas demand driven by colder winter forecasts and the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance, which influences the price spread between oil and gas. Additionally, the company’s water-management assets position it to capture ancillary revenue as water-intensive fracking activity expands in the basin.
For a deeper, data-driven look at MNR’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you might explore the company’s profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 291.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 27.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.00% < 20% (prev 8.11%; Δ -8.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 511.9m > Net Income 291.6m |
| Net Debt (1.11b) to EBITDA (529.6m): 2.10 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.00 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (126.5m) vs 12m ago 30.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.16% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 3980 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 33.54% > 50% (prev 39.38%; Δ -5.84% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.60 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 529.6m / Interest Expense TTM 66.7m) |
Beneish M -2.54
| DSRI: 1.44 (Receivables 213.5m/133.2m, Revenue 1.02b/916.1m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 40.16% / 36.18%) |
| AQI: 1.33 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 1.02b / 916.1m) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 291.6m - CFO 511.9m) / TA 3.77b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.54 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MNR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.26%, over one month by +7.24%, over three months by +4.27% and over the past year by -21.04%.
Is MNR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MNR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19.4 | 61.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19.4 | 61.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12.8 | 6.4% |
MNR Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/S = 2.0465
P/B = 1.0061
Revenue TTM = 1.02b USD
EBIT TTM = 173.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 529.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.14b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.72m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.17b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.11b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.07b USD (1.96b + Debt 1.17b - CCE 53.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.60 (Ebit TTM 173.1m / Interest Expense TTM 66.7m)
EV/FCF = 13.95x (Enterprise Value 3.07b / FCF TTM 219.9m)
FCF Yield = 7.17% (FCF TTM 219.9m / Enterprise Value 3.07b)
FCF Margin = 21.50% (FCF TTM 219.9m / Revenue TTM 1.02b)
Net Margin = 28.51% (Net Income TTM 291.6m / Revenue TTM 1.02b)
Gross Margin = 40.16% ((Revenue TTM 1.02b - Cost of Revenue TTM 612.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.65% (prev 41.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.81 (Enterprise Value 3.07b / Total Assets 3.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.04% (Interest Expense 12.1m / Debt 1.17b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 136.7m (EBIT 173.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.00 (Total Current Assets 375.1m / Total Current Liabilities 375.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.59 (Debt 1.17b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.10 (Net Debt 1.11b / EBITDA 529.6m)
Debt / FCF = 5.05 (Net Debt 1.11b / FCF TTM 219.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.48b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.56% (Net Income 291.6m / Total Assets 3.77b)
RoE = 19.71% (Net Income TTM 291.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.48b)
RoCE = 6.60% (EBIT 173.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.48b + L.T.Debt 1.14b))
RoIC = 6.19% (NOPAT 136.7m / Invested Capital 2.21b)
WACC = 5.47% (E(1.96b)/V(3.12b) * Re(8.23%) + D(1.17b)/V(3.12b) * Rd(1.04%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 15.37%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈219.9m ; Y1≈144.4m ; Y5≈65.9m
Fair Price DCF = 5.86 (EV 2.10b - Net Debt 1.11b = Equity 987.2m / Shares 168.4m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 4.23 | EPS CAGR: -8.16% | SUE: -1.20 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 64.24 | Revenue CAGR: 60.72% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=-0.067 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.23 | Chg30d=-0.052 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+12.3% | Growth Revenue=+26.7%