MNR Stock Analysis: Mach Natural Resources | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.119m USD | 12M Return: 4.5% | US6097201072 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.42M
EPS Trend: -56.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 82.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 2.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE: MNR) is an independent upstream oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. Incorporated in 2023 and headquartered in Oklahoma City, the company operates across three key U.S. basins: the Anadarko Basin (Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle), the San Juan Basin (New Mexico and Colorado), and the Permian Basin (West Texas). Mach Natural Resources also owns midstream assets, gathering systems, processing plants, and water infrastructure, while operating proved developed producing (PDP) wells.
As an upstream-focused operator, the company sits within the Energy sectors Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry, which typically generates revenue through the sale of produced hydrocarbons at commodity-linked prices. Mach Natural Resources listed on the NYSE in October 2023 and is classified as a mid-cap stock.
- WTI and Henry Hub prices swing revenue and margins
- Anadarko and Permian production growth lifts oil output
- Variable distribution policy tracks commodity price volatility
| Net Income: 243.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.11% < 20% (prev -5.68%; Δ 2.57% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 558.3m > Net Income 243.6m |
| Net Debt (1.17b) to EBITDA (587.0m): 2.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.88 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (168.0m) vs 12m ago 41.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.24% > 18% (prev 35.30%; Δ 17.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.22% > 50% (prev 43.09%; Δ 5.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.60 > 6 (EBIT TTM 138.1m / Interest Expense TTM 86.3m) |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 215.3m/146.9m, Revenue 1.45b/1.01b) |
| GMI: 0.66 (GM 35.30% / 53.24%) |
| AQI: 58.54 (AQ_t 0.84 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 1.44 (Revenue 1.45b / 1.01b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 243.6m - CFO 558.3m) / TA 3.68b) |
| Beneish M = 31.11 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of August 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.71 with a total of 322,168 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.47%, over one month by -3.03%, over three months by -4.59% and over the past year by +4.50%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.90 (which is 6.4% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Mach Natural Resources has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MNR.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 17.7 | 39.3% |
P/E Trailing = 23.5
P/S = 1.6317
P/B = 1.177
Revenue TTM = 1.45b USD
EBIT TTM = 138.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 587.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.86m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.4m
Net Debt = 1.17b USD (calculated: Debt 1.21b - CCE 41.2m)
Enterprise Value = 3.29b USD (2.12b + Debt 1.21b - CCE 41.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.60 (Ebit TTM 138.1m / Interest Expense TTM 86.3m)
EV/FCF = 20.62x (Enterprise Value 3.29b / FCF TTM 159.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.85% (FCF TTM 159.6m / Enterprise Value 3.29b)
FCF Margin = 11.01% (FCF TTM 159.6m / Revenue TTM 1.45b)
Net Margin = 16.81% (Net Income TTM 243.6m / Revenue TTM 1.45b)
Gross Margin = 53.24% ((Revenue TTM 1.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 677.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 25.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 3.29b / Total Assets 3.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.12% (Interest Expense 86.3m / Debt 1.21b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 109.1m (EBIT 138.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.88 (Total Current Assets 316.7m / Total Current Liabilities 361.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 1.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.84b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.00 (Net Debt 1.17b / EBITDA 587.0m)
Debt / FCF = 7.34 (Net Debt 1.17b / FCF TTM 159.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.11% (Net Income 243.6m / Total Assets 3.68b)
RoE = 12.74% (Net Income TTM 243.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.91b)
RoCE = 4.48% (EBIT 138.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.91b + L.T.Debt 1.17b))
RoIC = 3.33% (NOPAT 109.1m / Invested Capital 3.28b)
WACC = 5.94% (E(2.12b)/V(3.33b) * Re(6.12%) + D(1.21b)/V(3.33b) * Rd(7.12%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.01 | Cagr: 28.84%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈189.5m ; Y1≈166.2m ; Y5≈134.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.89 (EV 2.15b - Net Debt 1.17b = Equity 983.4m / Shares 166.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -56.20 | EPS CAGR: -30.38% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.65 | Revenue CAGR: 20.98% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=-26.98% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.26 | Chg30d=-10.43% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+2.6% | GrowthRev=+19.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=-4.82% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+5.8% | GrowthRev=+1.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=1, down=6)