(MNSO) Miniso Holding - Ratings and Ratios
Lifestyle, Toys, Beauty, Stationery, Accessories
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.21% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.41% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 53.48% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 6.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 55.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 83.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.43% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.18 |
| Alpha | -29.80 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.37 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.460 |
| Beta | 1.189 |
| Beta Downside | 1.480 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 53.32% |
| Mean DD | 23.18% |
| Median DD | 23.04% |
Description: MNSO Miniso Holding November 06, 2025
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:MNSO) is a Guangzhou-based investment holding company that operates a global retail and wholesale network for design-focused lifestyle and pop-toy merchandise. Its product portfolio spans home décor, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, cosmetics, personal care, snacks, fragrances, stationery, and gifts under the MINISO brand, while the TOP TOY brand covers blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, collectible dolls, and other licensed toys.
Since its 2013 launch, MINISO has pursued rapid store expansion, reporting roughly 4,500 points of sale across Mainland China, Southeast Asia, the Americas, and Europe as of the end of FY2023. The company’s FY2023 revenue reached approximately $1.2 billion, with same-store sales (SSS) growth of 8 % YoY, driven largely by higher foot traffic in tier-1 and tier-2 Chinese cities and an increasing share of online orders (≈ 15 % of total sales).
Key economic and sector drivers affecting MINISO include: (1) China’s post-COVID consumer recovery, which has boosted discretionary spending on affordable, fashion-forward goods; (2) the broader “fast-fashion retail” trend that favors frequent product refresh cycles and low-price points; and (3) rising competition from e-commerce platforms (e.g., Pinduoduo, Temu) that pressure brick-and-mortar margins and accelerate the need for omnichannel integration.
Given the company’s aggressive expansion strategy and exposure to both physical and digital channels, analysts should monitor store-level profitability metrics (e.g., gross margin per square foot) and the pace of e-commerce adoption to assess whether growth is sustainable.
For a deeper, data-driven evaluation of MINISO’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the free analytics tools on ValueRay useful for independent research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (2.15b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.19b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -4.34pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 27.37% (prev 34.13%; Δ -6.76pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.17b > Net Income 2.15b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (4.41b) to EBITDA (2.39b) ratio: 1.84 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.65 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (311.7m) change vs 12m ago -0.28% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 45.04% (prev 43.90%; Δ 1.15pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 88.84% (prev 99.92%; Δ -11.08pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.11 (EBITDA TTM 2.39b / Interest Expense TTM 376.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.68
| (A) 0.19 = (Total Current Assets 13.76b - Total Current Liabilities 8.32b) / Total Assets 28.67b |
| (B) 0.20 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 5.64b / Total Assets 28.67b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 1.55b / Avg Total Assets 22.40b |
| (D) 0.32 = Book Value of Equity 5.64b / Total Liabilities 17.84b |
| Total Rating: 2.68 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 64.53
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.33% |
| 3. FCF Margin 7.06% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.29 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.84 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -3.50)% |
| 7. RoE 20.24% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 94.26% |
| 9. EPS Trend 59.00% |
What is the price of MNSO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.32%, over one month by -8.96%, over three months by -20.23% and over the past year by -16.13%.
Is MNSO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 11
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MNSO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 26.9 | 39.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 26.9 | 39.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 19.4 | 1% |
MNSO Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Trailing = 19.9592
P/E Forward = 24.6914
P/S = 0.2997
P/B = 3.9211
Beta = 0.152
Revenue TTM = 19.90b CNY
EBIT TTM = 1.55b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 2.39b CNY
Long Term Debt = 5.62b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.89b CNY (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.11b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 4.41b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 42.19b CNY (42.18b + Debt 3.11b - CCE 3.10b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.11 (Ebit TTM 1.55b / Interest Expense TTM 376.9m)
FCF Yield = 3.33% (FCF TTM 1.41b / Enterprise Value 42.19b)
FCF Margin = 7.06% (FCF TTM 1.41b / Revenue TTM 19.90b)
Net Margin = 10.81% (Net Income TTM 2.15b / Revenue TTM 19.90b)
Gross Margin = 45.04% ((Revenue TTM 19.90b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.94b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.68% (prev 44.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.47 (Enterprise Value 42.19b / Total Assets 28.67b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.01% (Interest Expense 124.8m / Debt 3.11b)
Taxrate = 33.87% (226.9m / 670.1m)
NOPAT = 1.02b (EBIT 1.55b * (1 - 33.87%))
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 13.76b / Total Current Liabilities 8.32b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 3.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.74b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.84 (Net Debt 4.41b / EBITDA 2.39b)
Debt / FCF = 3.14 (Net Debt 4.41b / FCF TTM 1.41b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.64b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.51% (Net Income 2.15b / Total Assets 28.67b)
RoE = 20.24% (Net Income TTM 2.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.64b)
RoCE = 9.52% (EBIT 1.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.64b + L.T.Debt 5.62b))
RoIC = 6.37% (NOPAT 1.02b / Invested Capital 16.09b)
WACC = 9.87% (E(42.18b)/V(45.29b) * Re(10.40%) + D(3.11b)/V(45.29b) * Rd(4.01%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 10.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.30% ; FCFE base≈1.44b ; Y1≈1.38b ; Y5≈1.34b
Fair Price DCF = 53.85 (DCF Value 16.37b / Shares Outstanding 304.0m; 5y FCF grow -5.77% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 59.00 | EPS CAGR: 39.07% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.26 | Revenue CAGR: 21.73% | SUE: 0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.48 | Chg30d=-0.219 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+23.3% | Growth Revenue=+18.3%
Additional Sources for MNSO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle