MNSO Stock Analysis: Miniso Holding | NYSE
Specialty Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.584m USD | 12M Return: -55.4% | US66981J1025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.19M
EPS Trend: 60.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MINISO Group Holding Limited (NYSE: MNSO) is a China-based investment holding company that operates in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products across global markets including Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, and Europe. The company sells a wide range of products under two main brands: MINISO, which offers home decor, small electronics, textiles, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care items, snacks, fragrances, and stationery; and TOP TOY, which focuses on collectible and trendy toys such as blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, and collectible dolls. In addition to its physical retail presence, the company engages in brand licensing and online sales of lifestyle products. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Guangzhou, China, MINIPO has a mid-cap market valuation and listed on the NYSE in October 2020.
As a player in the broadline retail segment of the consumer discretionary sector, MINISO operates within a fast-growing area of value-oriented lifestyle retail that has expanded rapidly across emerging and developed markets. Its dual-brand strategy, combining affordable lifestyle goods with a dedicated pop toy and collectibles business, positions the company at the intersection of two notable consumer trends: demand for affordable design-led products and the rising global popularity of collectible toys and IP-driven merchandise.
- TOP TOY pop toy brand drives same-store sales growth
- China consumer spending weakness pressures domestic revenue
- Overseas store expansion accelerates across Asia and Americas
| Net Income: 1.26b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.30% < 20% (prev 32.84%; Δ -10.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 2.62b > Net Income 1.26b |
| Net Debt (4.72b) to EBITDA (3.71b): 1.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (309.6m) vs 12m ago 0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 44.94% > 18% (prev 45.11%; Δ -0.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.15% > 50% (prev 69.91%; Δ 12.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.51b / Interest Expense TTM 478.8m) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 14.4b - Total Current Liabilities 9.18b) / Total Assets 30.4b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 6.58b / Total Assets 30.4b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 2.51b / Avg Total Assets 28.5b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 10.3b / Total Liabilities 19.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.97 = A |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 2.96b/756.4m, Revenue 23.4b/18.6b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 45.11% / 44.94%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 23.4b / 18.6b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.26b - CFO 2.62b) / TA 30.4b) |
| Beneish M = -1.28 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.60 with a total of 2,339,051 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.72%, over one month by +4.01%, over three months by -16.30% and over the past year by -55.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.20 (which is 4.2% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Miniso Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.41. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MNSO.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.6 | 52.1% |
Market Cap CNY = 17.3b (2.58b USD * 6.692 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 14.4754
P/E Forward = 7.5472
P/S = 0.1097
P/B = 1.716
Revenue TTM = 23.4b CNY
EBIT TTM = 2.51b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 3.71b CNY
Long Term Debt = 6.29b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.07b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.1b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.58b
Net Debt = 4.72b CNY (calculated: Debt 12.1b - CCE 7.40b)
Enterprise Value = 22.0b CNY (17.3b + Debt 12.1b - CCE 7.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.24 (Ebit TTM 2.51b / Interest Expense TTM 478.8m)
EV/FCF = 13.32x (Enterprise Value 22.0b / FCF TTM 1.65b)
FCF Yield = 7.51% (FCF TTM 1.65b / Enterprise Value 22.0b)
FCF Margin = 7.06% (FCF TTM 1.65b / Revenue TTM 23.4b)
Net Margin = 5.36% (Net Income TTM 1.26b / Revenue TTM 23.4b)
Gross Margin = 44.94% ((Revenue TTM 23.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.26% (prev 43.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 22.0b / Total Assets 30.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.95% (Interest Expense 478.8m / Debt 12.1b)
Taxrate = 37.44% (751.6m / 2.01b)
NOPAT = 1.57b (EBIT 2.51b * (1 - 37.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.57 (Total Current Assets 14.4b / Total Current Liabilities 9.18b)
Debt / Equity = 1.17 (Debt 12.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.27 (Net Debt 4.72b / EBITDA 3.71b)
Debt / FCF = 2.85 (Net Debt 4.72b / FCF TTM 1.65b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.41% (Net Income 1.26b / Total Assets 30.4b)
RoE = 11.79% (Net Income TTM 1.26b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.7b)
RoCE = 14.80% (EBIT 2.51b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.7b + L.T.Debt 6.29b))
RoIC = 6.52% (NOPAT 1.57b / Invested Capital 24.1b)
WACC = 5.73% (E(17.3b)/V(29.4b) * Re(8.01%) + D(12.1b)/V(29.4b) * Rd(3.95%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 8.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -46.39 | Cagr: -0.03%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.55b ; Y1≈1.78b ; Y5≈2.62b
[DCF] Fair Price = 118.7 (EV 39.4b - Net Debt 4.72b = Equity 34.7b / Shares 292.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 60.13 | EPS CAGR: 7.65% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.72 | Revenue CAGR: 24.62% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.14 | Chg30d=-25.49% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.39 | Chg30d=-0.40% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=-10.4% | GrowthRev=+15.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.03 | Chg30d=-7.03% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=+19.6% | GrowthRev=+13.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -86% (up=0, down=18)