(MO) Altria - Ratings and Ratios
Cigarettes, Cigars, Smokeless, Nicotine-Pouches, E-Vapor
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.98% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 15.30% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.15% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 76.2% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 18.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 28.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.93% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.36 |
| Alpha | 7.28 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.11 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.419 |
| Beta | 0.007 |
| Beta Downside | 0.169 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 15.41% |
| Mean DD | 4.31% |
| Median DD | 3.33% |
Description: MO Altria September 25, 2025
Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO) manufactures and sells a portfolio of combustible and oral tobacco products in the United States, including Marlboro cigarettes, Black & Mild cigars, Copenhagen and Skoal smokeless tobacco, the on! nicotine-pouch line, and NJOY ACE e-vapor devices. Distribution is handled through traditional wholesale channels and large-format retailers, with the company headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, and tracing its corporate lineage back to 1822.
Key quantitative signals (FY 2023) show a revenue of $27.1 billion, an adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) of $6.31, and a dividend yield near 8 %-the latter reflecting Altria’s status as a high-yielding consumer-staples stock. The firm’s cash-flow conversion remains strong (≈ $5 billion free cash flow), supporting its $9 billion share-repurchase program. However, growth is constrained by declining smoking prevalence (U.S. adult smoking rate fell to 12.5 % in 2023, a 0.5 % YoY drop) and increasing regulatory pressure on nicotine-delivery products, which together create a secular headwind for the combustible segment.
Analysts typically model Altria’s earnings trajectory by weighting the stable, high-margin cigarette franchise (≈ 70 % of net sales) against the nascent, higher-growth “next-generation” product (NGP) segment, which has been expanding at roughly 15 % annual revenue CAGR since 2021 but still represents less than 10 % of total sales.
If you want a data-driven deep-dive into how Altria’s dividend sustainability, NGP rollout, and regulatory outlook compare to peers, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can provide the granular metrics you need to form a more informed view.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income (8.87b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.21b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.33 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 8.20pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -15.70% (prev -22.09%; Δ 6.38pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.34 (>3.0%) and CFO 11.75b > Net Income 8.87b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (22.23b) to EBITDA (12.10b) ratio: 1.84 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.62 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.68b) change vs 12m ago -1.12% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 71.98% (prev 70.04%; Δ 1.94pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 58.30% (prev 59.60%; Δ -1.29pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 11.04 (EBITDA TTM 12.10b / Interest Expense TTM 1.07b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 6.02
| (A) -0.09 = (Total Current Assets 5.12b - Total Current Liabilities 8.29b) / Total Assets 35.01b |
| (B) 1.03 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 36.12b / Total Assets 35.01b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: 1.03 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.34 = EBIT TTM 11.81b / Avg Total Assets 34.59b |
| (D) 0.91 = Book Value of Equity 34.34b / Total Liabilities 37.60b |
| Total Rating: 6.02 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 74.84
| 1. Piotroski 6.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 9.65% |
| 3. FCF Margin 57.38% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -9.71 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.84 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 35.69)% |
| 7. RoE -304.5% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -4.45% |
| 9. EPS Trend 70.70% |
What is the price of MO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.41%, over one month by -6.75%, over three months by -9.72% and over the past year by +9.65%.
Is MO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 62.6 | 6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 62.6 | 6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 67.1 | 13.8% |
MO Fundamental Data Overview November 22, 2025
P/E Trailing = 11.1031
P/E Forward = 10.4712
P/S = 4.8466
P/B = 27.3016
P/EG = 4.0147
Beta = 0.504
Revenue TTM = 20.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 11.81b USD
EBITDA TTM = 12.10b USD
Long Term Debt = 24.13b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.57b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 25.70b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.23b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 119.97b USD (97.74b + Debt 25.70b - CCE 3.47b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.04 (Ebit TTM 11.81b / Interest Expense TTM 1.07b)
FCF Yield = 9.65% (FCF TTM 11.57b / Enterprise Value 119.97b)
FCF Margin = 57.38% (FCF TTM 11.57b / Revenue TTM 20.17b)
Net Margin = 43.98% (Net Income TTM 8.87b / Revenue TTM 20.17b)
Gross Margin = 71.98% ((Revenue TTM 20.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.65b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 72.60% (prev 72.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.43 (Enterprise Value 119.97b / Total Assets 35.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 278.0m / Debt 25.70b)
Taxrate = 22.76% (700.0m / 3.08b)
NOPAT = 9.12b (EBIT 11.81b * (1 - 22.76%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 5.12b / Total Current Liabilities 8.29b)
Debt / Equity = -9.71 (negative equity) (Debt 25.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -2.65b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.84 (Net Debt 22.23b / EBITDA 12.10b)
Debt / FCF = 1.92 (Net Debt 22.23b / FCF TTM 11.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -2.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 25.33% (Net Income 8.87b / Total Assets 35.01b)
RoE = -304.5% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 8.87b / Total Stockholder Equity -2.91b)
RoCE = 55.66% (EBIT 11.81b / Capital Employed (Equity -2.91b + L.T.Debt 24.13b))
RoIC = 40.65% (NOPAT 9.12b / Invested Capital 22.44b)
WACC = 4.96% (E(97.74b)/V(123.44b) * Re(6.04%) + D(25.70b)/V(123.44b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 6.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.41%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.81% ; FCFE base≈10.34b ; Y1≈10.72b ; Y5≈12.24b
Fair Price DCF = 128.1 (DCF Value 215.03b / Shares Outstanding 1.68b; 5y FCF grow 3.86% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 70.70 | EPS CAGR: 7.91% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -4.45 | Revenue CAGR: 0.86% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for MO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle