MOS Stock Analysis: The Mosaic | NYSE

Phosphate Fertilizers, Potash Fertilizers, Feed Supplements

Total Rating 21

Safety 79

Buy Signal -0.96

Agricultural Inputs
Industry Rotation: +5.2

Market Cap: 7.44B
Avg Turnover: 169M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility37.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl6.50%

VaR vs Median4.44%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.53

Rel. Str. IBD10.9

Rel. Str. Peer Group13.6

Character TTM

Beta0.918

Beta Downside0.993

Hurst Exponent0.340

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD47.98%

CAGR/Max DD-0.32

CAGR/Mean DD-0.59

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -26.42%
EPS Trend: -84.1%

Last SUE: 0.31
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -6.15%
Rev. Trend: -63.1%

Last SUE: -2.26
Qual. Beats: -1

Warnings

P/E Ratio 156.1

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +4.1% 19

Feb -0.1% 5

Mar -7.9% 6

Apr -1.7% 10

May -2.5% 27

Jun +0.3% 5

Jul +4.5% 46

Aug -1.3% 38

Sep -0.8% 2

Oct -0.6% 0

Nov +3.3% 11

Dec +0.3% 11

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MOS The Mosaic

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is a Tampa, Florida-based producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, organized into three operating segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, owning and managing mines, chemical plants, blending and bagging facilities, port terminals, and warehouses that support both upstream extraction and downstream distribution.

Mosaics product portfolio includes diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), the value-added MicroEssentials ammoniated phosphate, the K-Mag double sulfate of potash magnesia, and feed phosphates marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands. The company sells through wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts, and also exports to customers in more than a dozen countries, including Brazil, China, Canada, and India.

As a participant in the GICS Materials sector under Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Mosaic supplies two of the three primary macronutrients (phosphorus and potassium) used in commercial agriculture. Phosphate and potash mining is a capital-intensive, resource-driven industry in which a small number of producers, including Mosaic, account for a significant share of global supply.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Potash and phosphate prices decline on weak global demand
Brazil real weakness pressures Mosaic Fertilizantes margins
Lower natural gas and sulfur costs boost phosphate margins

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5

Net Income: 43.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.86 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 11.51% < 20% (prev 5.34%; Δ 6.17% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 444.0m > Net Income 43.2m
Net Debt (5.80b) to EBITDA (1.71b): 3.40 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.34 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (317.9m) vs 12m ago -0.19% < -2%
Gross Margin: 11.55% > 18% (prev 15.33%; Δ -3.79% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 48.53% > 50% (prev 46.30%; Δ 2.23% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 868.4m / Interest Expense TTM 227.5m)

Altman Z'' 3.33

A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 5.43b - Total Current Liabilities 4.06b) / Total Assets 24.6b
B: 0.55 (Retained Earnings 13.6b / Total Assets 24.6b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 868.4m / Avg Total Assets 24.5b)
D: 0.88 (Book Value of Equity 11.5b / Total Liabilities 13.0b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.33 = A

Beneish M -2.98

DSRI: 0.59 (Receivables 860.1m/1.38b, Revenue 11.9b/11.3b)
GMI: 1.33 (GM 15.33% / 11.55%)
AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.21)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 11.9b / 11.3b)
TATA: -0.02 (NI 43.2m - CFO 444.0m) / TA 24.6b)
Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of MOS shares?

As of August 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.06 with a total of 4,633,708 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.25%, over one month by +9.19%, over three months by +1.68% and over the past year by -24.66%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.40 (which is 11.5% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).

Is MOS a buy, sell or hold?

The Mosaic has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.85. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MOS.

StrongBuy: 5
Buy: 7
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MOS price?

Analysts Target Price	27.5	19%

The Mosaic (MOS) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 07 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 7.44b (7.44b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 156.0667
P/E Forward = 23.31
P/S = 0.5986
P/B = 0.5956
P/EG = 2.0198
Revenue TTM = 11.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 868.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.71b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.25b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.09b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.10b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 239.7m
Net Debt = 5.80b USD (calculated: Debt 6.10b - CCE 294.0m)
Enterprise Value = 13.2b USD (7.44b + Debt 6.10b - CCE 294.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.82 (Ebit TTM 868.4m / Interest Expense TTM 227.5m)
EV/FCF = -13.98x (Enterprise Value 13.2b / FCF TTM -947.1m)
FCF Yield = -7.15% (FCF TTM -947.1m / Enterprise Value 13.2b)
FCF Margin = -7.97% (FCF TTM -947.1m / Revenue TTM 11.9b)
Net Margin = 0.36% (Net Income TTM 43.2m / Revenue TTM 11.9b)
Gross Margin = 11.55% ((Revenue TTM 11.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 7.60% (prev 7.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.54 (Enterprise Value 13.2b / Total Assets 24.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.73% (Interest Expense 227.5m / Debt 6.10b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 686.0m (EBIT 868.4m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.34 (Total Current Assets 5.43b / Total Current Liabilities 4.06b)
Debt / Equity = 0.53 (Debt 6.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.40 (Net Debt 5.80b / EBITDA 1.71b)
Debt / FCF = -6.13 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 5.80b / FCF TTM -947.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.18% (Net Income 43.2m / Total Assets 24.6b)
RoE = 0.36% (Net Income TTM 43.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 12.0b)
RoCE = 5.33% (EBIT 868.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 12.0b + L.T.Debt 4.25b))
RoIC = 3.21% (NOPAT 686.0m / Invested Capital 21.4b)
WACC = 6.39% (E(7.44b)/V(13.5b) * Re(9.21%) + D(6.10b)/V(13.5b) * Rd(3.73%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -45.28 | Cagr: -0.77%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -947.1m)
EPS Correlation: -84.13 | EPS CAGR: -26.42% | SUE: 0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -63.12 | Revenue CAGR: -6.15% | SUE: -2.26 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=-16.43% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.75 | Chg30d=-12.03% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-66.9% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.82 | Chg30d=-6.39% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+141.8% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -72% (up=1, down=14)