MOS Stock Analysis: The Mosaic | NYSE

Phosphate Nutrients, Potash, Animal Feed, Blended Fertilizers

Total Rating 21

Safety 67

Buy Signal -1.06

Agricultural Inputs
Industry Rotation: -21.1

Market Cap: 7.31B
Avg Turnover: 196M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility38.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl6.56%

VaR vs Median3.91%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.91

Rel. Str. IBD15.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group25

Character TTM

Beta0.966

Beta Downside1.029

Hurst Exponent0.366

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD45.74%

CAGR/Max DD-0.26

CAGR/Mean DD-0.51

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -26.42%
EPS Trend: -84.1%

Last SUE: 0.31
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -6.15%
Rev. Trend: -63.1%

Last SUE: -2.26
Qual. Beats: -1

Warnings

Choppy

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Shakeout

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +4.1% 19

Feb -0.1% 5

Mar -7.9% 6

Apr -1.7% 10

May -2.5% 27

Jun +0.3% 5

Jul +4.5% 46

Aug -0.9% 28

Sep -0.8% 2

Oct -0.6% 0

Nov +3.3% 11

Dec +0.3% 11

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MOS The Mosaic

The Mosaic Company is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, operating through three business segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines, chemical plants, blending and bagging facilities, port terminals, and warehouses, supporting both upstream extraction and downstream distribution. Its product portfolio includes diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), MicroEssentials (a value-added ammoniated phosphate product), K-Mag (a double sulfate of potash magnesia), as well as feed phosphates sold under the Biofos and Nexfos brands.

The company sells its products through a sales force to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts, and also exports internationally. Operations span the United States, Brazil, Canada, and several other countries across Latin America, Asia, and Oceania. Mosaic was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

Phosphate and potash are two of the three primary macronutrients essential to plant growth, alongside nitrogen, making Mosaics products critical inputs for global agricultural production. The company is classified within the Materials sector under the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry, and its vertically integrated model-spanning mining, processing, blending, and logistics-reflects the capital-intensive nature of the fertilizer industry, where resource access and supply chain infrastructure are key competitive advantages.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Phosphate and potash prices swing on global supply-demand dynamics
Mosaic Fertilizantes margins track Brazilian currency and crop demand
Natural gas costs pressure phosphate production economics

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5

Net Income: 43.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.86 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 11.51% < 20% (prev 5.34%; Δ 6.17% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 444.0m > Net Income 43.2m
Net Debt (5.79b) to EBITDA (1.71b): 3.39 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.34 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (317.9m) vs 12m ago -0.19% < -2%
Gross Margin: 11.55% > 18% (prev 15.33%; Δ -3.79% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 48.53% > 50% (prev 46.30%; Δ 2.23% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 868.4m / Interest Expense TTM 227.5m)

Altman Z'' 3.33

A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 5.43b - Total Current Liabilities 4.06b) / Total Assets 24.6b
B: 0.55 (Retained Earnings 13.6b / Total Assets 24.6b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 868.4m / Avg Total Assets 24.5b)
D: 0.88 (Book Value of Equity 11.5b / Total Liabilities 13.0b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.33 = A

Beneish M -2.82

DSRI: 0.79 (Receivables 1.14b/1.38b, Revenue 11.9b/11.3b)
GMI: 1.33 (GM 15.33% / 11.55%)
AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.21)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 11.9b / 11.3b)
TATA: -0.02 (NI 43.2m - CFO 444.0m) / TA 24.6b)
Beneish M = -2.82 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of MOS shares?

As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.07 with a total of 7,813,887 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.43%, over one month by -17.58%, over three months by +0.56% and over the past year by -37.16%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 19.60 (which is 7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is MOS a buy, sell or hold?

The Mosaic has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.85. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MOS.

StrongBuy: 5
Buy: 7
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MOS price?

Analysts Target Price	26.8	27.1%

The Mosaic (MOS) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 28 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 7.31b (7.31b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 22.6757
P/S = 0.5972
P/B = 0.6479
P/EG = 2.0198
Revenue TTM = 11.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 868.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.71b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.77b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.09b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.08b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 223.4m
Net Debt = 5.79b USD (calculated: Debt 6.08b - CCE 294.0m)
Enterprise Value = 13.1b USD (7.31b + Debt 6.08b - CCE 294.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.82 (Ebit TTM 868.4m / Interest Expense TTM 227.5m)
EV/FCF = -13.83x (Enterprise Value 13.1b / FCF TTM -947.1m)
FCF Yield = -7.23% (FCF TTM -947.1m / Enterprise Value 13.1b)
FCF Margin = -7.97% (FCF TTM -947.1m / Revenue TTM 11.9b)
Net Margin = 0.36% (Net Income TTM 43.2m / Revenue TTM 11.9b)
Gross Margin = 11.55% ((Revenue TTM 11.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 7.60% (prev 7.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.53 (Enterprise Value 13.1b / Total Assets 24.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.74% (Interest Expense 227.5m / Debt 6.08b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 686.0m (EBIT 868.4m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.34 (Total Current Assets 5.43b / Total Current Liabilities 4.06b)
Debt / Equity = 0.53 (Debt 6.08b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.39 (Net Debt 5.79b / EBITDA 1.71b)
Debt / FCF = -6.11 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 5.79b / FCF TTM -947.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.18% (Net Income 43.2m / Total Assets 24.6b)
RoE = 0.36% (Net Income TTM 43.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 12.0b)
RoCE = 5.17% (EBIT 868.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 12.0b + L.T.Debt 4.77b))
RoIC = 3.21% (NOPAT 686.0m / Invested Capital 21.4b)
WACC = 6.46% (E(7.31b)/V(13.4b) * Re(9.38%) + D(6.08b)/V(13.4b) * Rd(3.74%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -45.28 | Cagr: -0.77%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -947.1m)
EPS Correlation: -84.13 | EPS CAGR: -26.42% | SUE: 0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -63.12 | Revenue CAGR: -6.15% | SUE: -2.26 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=-16.69% | Revisions=-75% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-4.59% | Revisions=-79% | GrowthEPS=-82.7% | GrowthRev=+0.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=-2.57% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+297.9% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -85% (up=1, down=29)