MOS Stock Analysis: The Mosaic | NYSE
Agricultural Inputs | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.918m USD | 12M Return: -11.1% | US61945C1036 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 208M
EPS Trend: -69.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -47.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
The Mosaic Company is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, operating through three business segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines, chemical plants, blending and bagging facilities, port terminals, and warehouses, supporting both upstream extraction and downstream distribution. Its product portfolio includes diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), MicroEssentials (a value-added ammoniated phosphate product), K-Mag (a double sulfate of potash magnesia), as well as feed phosphates sold under the Biofos and Nexfos brands.
The company sells its products through a sales force to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts, and also exports internationally. Operations span the United States, Brazil, Canada, and several other countries across Latin America, Asia, and Oceania. Mosaic was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Phosphate and potash are two of the three primary macronutrients essential to plant growth, alongside nitrogen, making Mosaics products critical inputs for global agricultural production. The company is classified within the Materials sector under the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry, and its vertically integrated model-spanning mining, processing, blending, and logistics-reflects the capital-intensive nature of the fertilizer industry, where resource access and supply chain infrastructure are key competitive advantages.
- Phosphate and potash prices swing on global supply-demand dynamics
- Mosaic Fertilizantes margins track Brazilian currency and crop demand
- Natural gas costs pressure phosphate production economics
| Net Income: -440.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.51% < 20% (prev 5.26%; Δ 9.24% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 499.9m > Net Income -440.3m |
| Net Debt (5.85b) to EBITDA (1.33b): 4.38 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (317.9m) vs 12m ago -0.47% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.84% > 18% (prev 15.65%; Δ -7.81% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.23% > 50% (prev 48.22%; Δ -0.99% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.73 > 6 (EBIT TTM 166.0m / Interest Expense TTM 227.7m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 5.03b - Total Current Liabilities 3.36b) / Total Assets 24.1b |
| B: 0.56 (Retained Earnings 13.4b / Total Assets 24.1b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 166.0m / Avg Total Assets 24.4b) |
| D: 0.89 (Book Value of Equity 11.3b / Total Liabilities 12.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.25 = A |
| DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 1.01b/1.30b, Revenue 11.5b/11.9b) |
| GMI: 2.00 (GM 15.65% / 7.84%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 11.5b / 11.9b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -440.3m - CFO 499.9m) / TA 24.1b) |
| Beneish M = -2.31 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of November 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.92 with a total of 5,202,176 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.97%, over one month by +14.29%, over three months by +1.49% and over the past year by -11.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.20 (which is 7.8% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
The Mosaic has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.65. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MOS.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 25.2 | 14.8% |
P/E Forward = 20.7469
P/S = 0.5815
P/B = 0.6415
P/EG = 2.4242
Revenue TTM = 11.5b USD
EBIT TTM = 166.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.33b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.33b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 580.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.12b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 211.9m
Net Debt = 5.85b USD (calculated: Debt 6.12b - CCE 272.6m)
Enterprise Value = 12.8b USD (6.92b + Debt 6.12b - CCE 272.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.73 (Ebit TTM 166.0m / Interest Expense TTM 227.7m)
EV/FCF = -15.80x (Enterprise Value 12.8b / FCF TTM -808.3m)
FCF Yield = -6.33% (FCF TTM -808.3m / Enterprise Value 12.8b)
FCF Margin = -7.01% (FCF TTM -808.3m / Revenue TTM 11.5b)
Net Margin = -3.82% (Net Income TTM -440.3m / Revenue TTM 11.5b)
Gross Margin = 7.84% ((Revenue TTM 11.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.6b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 2.71% (prev 7.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.53 (Enterprise Value 12.8b / Total Assets 24.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.72% (Interest Expense 227.7m / Debt 6.12b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 131.1m (EBIT 166.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.50 (Total Current Assets 5.03b / Total Current Liabilities 3.36b)
Debt / Equity = 0.54 (Debt 6.12b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.38 (Net Debt 5.85b / EBITDA 1.33b)
Debt / FCF = -7.24 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 5.85b / FCF TTM -808.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.80% (Net Income -440.3m / Total Assets 24.1b)
RoE = -3.78% (Net Income TTM -440.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 11.7b)
RoCE = 0.98% (EBIT 166.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 11.7b + L.T.Debt 5.33b))
RoIC = 0.62% (NOPAT 131.1m / Invested Capital 21.1b)
WACC = 5.92% (E(6.92b)/V(13.0b) * Re(8.57%) + D(6.12b)/V(13.0b) * Rd(3.72%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -27.54 | Cagr: -0.46%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -808.3m)
EPS Correlation: -69.19 | EPS CAGR: -42.64% | SUE: -1.11 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -47.63 | Revenue CAGR: -3.18% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-72.02% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.11 | Chg30d=-127.22% | Revisions=-58% | GrowthEPS=-104.7% | GrowthRev=+0.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=-10.45% | Revisions=-42% | GrowthEPS=+1420.0% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -59% (up=3, down=16)