(MOS) The Mosaic - Overview

Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Agricultural Inputs | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 7.861m USD | Total Return: -7.3% in 12m

Phosphate, Potash, Fertilizer, Feed Ingredients
Total Rating 30
Safety 76
Buy Signal -1.10
Agricultural Inputs
Industry Rotation: -66.6
Market Cap: 7.86B
Avg Turnover: 254M USD
ATR: 5.48%
Peers RS (IBD): 12.5
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility37.6%
Rel. Tail Risk-4.93%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Alpha-28.37
Character TTM
Beta0.667
Beta Downside0.974
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD47.05%
CAGR/Max DD-0.37
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MOS over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.57, "2021-06": 1.17, "2021-09": 1.35, "2021-12": 1.95, "2022-03": 2.41, "2022-06": 3.64, "2022-09": 3.22, "2022-12": 1.74, "2023-03": 1.14, "2023-06": 1.04, "2023-09": 0.68, "2023-12": 0.71, "2024-03": 0.65, "2024-06": 0.54, "2024-09": 0.3826, "2024-12": 0.45, "2025-03": 0.49, "2025-06": 0.51, "2025-09": 1.04, "2025-12": 0.22,
EPS CAGR: -47.18%
EPS Trend: -84.8%
Last SUE: -2.00
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MOS over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 2297.1, 2021-06: 2800.7, 2021-09: 3418.6, 2021-12: 3841, 2022-03: 3922.3, 2022-06: 5373.1, 2022-09: 5348.5, 2022-12: 4481.3, 2023-03: 3604.3, 2023-06: 3394, 2023-09: 3548.3, 2023-12: 3149.5, 2024-03: 2679.4, 2024-06: 2816.6, 2024-09: 2810.9, 2024-12: 2815.9, 2025-03: 2620.9, 2025-06: 3005.7, 2025-09: 3452.1, 2025-12: 2603.4,
Rev. CAGR: -10.35%
Rev. Trend: -78.8%
Last SUE: -0.35
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: MOS The Mosaic

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is a vertically integrated producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash nutrients, operating across three segments-Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes-and serving a global customer base that includes distributors, retailers, cooperatives, and industrial users.

In its most recent quarter (Q4 2025), Mosaic reported revenue of $5.8 billion, an EBITDA margin of 15%, and net income of $300 million, driven by the production of roughly 12 million metric tons of phosphate products and 5 million metric tons of potash. The company’s fertilizer price index rose 12% year-over-year, reflecting tight supply and strong demand.

Key drivers for Mosaic include accelerating global food demand-especially in Brazil and India-where crop acreage is expanding, and rising input costs tied to energy and raw material prices. Additionally, ESG pressures are prompting growers to adopt higher-efficiency nutrients, bolstering demand for Mosaic’s specialty blends.

For a deeper dive, see ValueRay’s detailed MOS analysis.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Global fertilizer prices dictate revenue and profitability
  • Energy and raw material costs impact production expenses
  • Agricultural commodity prices influence farmer fertilizer demand
  • Regulatory changes on mining and environmental impact operations
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 1.22b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.39 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 10.74% < 20% (prev 2.94%; Δ 7.80% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 824.8m > Net Income 1.22b
Net Debt (5.00b) to EBITDA (2.92b): 1.71 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.32 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (294.9m) vs 12m ago -7.41% < -2%
Gross Margin: 16.51% > 18% (prev 0.14%; Δ 1.64k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 49.29% > 50% (prev 48.52%; Δ 0.77% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.81 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.92b / Interest Expense TTM 217.7m)
Altman Z'' 3.80
A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 5.24b - Total Current Liabilities 3.98b) / Total Assets 24.48b
B: 0.58 (Retained Earnings 14.18b / Total Assets 24.48b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.92b / Avg Total Assets 23.70b)
D: 0.98 (Book Value of Equity 12.06b / Total Liabilities 12.25b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 3.80 = AA
Beneish M -3.19
DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 1.31b/1.35b, Revenue 11.68b/11.12b)
GMI: 0.82 (GM 16.51% / 13.59%)
AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.21)
SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 11.68b / 11.12b)
TATA: 0.02 (NI 1.22b - CFO 824.8m) / TA 24.48b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.19 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of MOS shares? As of April 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.73 with a total of 8,204,210 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.86%, over one month by -14.24%, over three months by -13.23% and over the past year by -7.31%.
Is MOS a buy, sell or hold? The Mosaic has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.85. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MOS.
  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 7
  • Hold: 8
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MOS price?
Analysts Target Price 31.3 31.8%
The Mosaic (MOS) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 13 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 14.5647
P/E Forward = 14.6413
P/S = 0.6523
P/B = 0.6505
P/EG = 1.4651
Revenue TTM = 11.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.92b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.92b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.25b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 862.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.00b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 12.86b USD (7.86b + Debt 5.28b - CCE 276.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.81 (Ebit TTM 1.92b / Interest Expense TTM 217.7m)
EV/FCF = -24.06x (Enterprise Value 12.86b / FCF TTM -534.6m)
FCF Yield = -4.16% (FCF TTM -534.6m / Enterprise Value 12.86b)
FCF Margin = -4.58% (FCF TTM -534.6m / Revenue TTM 11.68b)
Net Margin = 10.46% (Net Income TTM 1.22b / Revenue TTM 11.68b)
Gross Margin = 16.51% ((Revenue TTM 11.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.75b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.17% (prev 16.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.53 (Enterprise Value 12.86b / Total Assets 24.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.76% (Interest Expense 40.1m / Debt 5.28b)
Taxrate = 27.37% (61.1m / 223.2m)
NOPAT = 1.39b (EBIT 1.92b * (1 - 27.37%))
Current Ratio = 1.32 (Total Current Assets 5.24b / Total Current Liabilities 3.98b)
Debt / Equity = 0.44 (Debt 5.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.08b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.71 (Net Debt 5.00b / EBITDA 2.92b)
 Debt / FCF = -9.36 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 5.00b / FCF TTM -534.6m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 12.27b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.16% (Net Income 1.22b / Total Assets 24.48b)
RoE = 9.96% (Net Income TTM 1.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.27b)
RoCE = 11.61% (EBIT 1.92b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.27b + L.T.Debt 4.25b))
RoIC = 8.23% (NOPAT 1.39b / Invested Capital 16.93b)
WACC = 5.28% (E(7.86b)/V(13.14b) * Re(8.46%) + D(5.28b)/V(13.14b) * Rd(0.76%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.14%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -534.6m)
 EPS Correlation: -84.84 | EPS CAGR: -47.18% | SUE: -2.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -78.84 | Revenue CAGR: -10.35% | SUE: -0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.018 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.74 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.025 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-23.2% | Growth Revenue=+7.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.46 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.023 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+41.1% | Growth Revenue=-1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0.00 (1 Up / 1 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 1.6% (Discount Rate 8.5% - Earnings Yield 6.9%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +4.3% (Analyst 5.9% - Implied 1.6%)
External Resources
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