MP Stock Analysis: MP Materials | NYSE
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.637m USD | 12M Return: -26.2% | US5533681012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 322M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 21.1%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) is a U.S.-based producer of rare earth materials and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing facility in San Bernardino County, California-one of the few large-scale rare earth mining and processing operations outside of China. The company reports through two business segments: Materials, which encompasses the Mountain Pass mining and processing operations, and Magnetics, which produces neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal and manufactures NdFeB permanent magnets used in high-performance applications.
The company is classified within the GICS Materials sector (Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry) and trades as a large-cap stock following its 2020 listing. Rare earth materials and NdFeB magnets are key inputs for electric vehicle motors, wind turbine generators, electronics, and defense systems, positioning MP Materials as a domestic supplier within a supply chain that is heavily concentrated in Asia. MP Materials was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
- NdPr oxide pricing swings on Chinese export quotas and EV demand
- Fort Worth magnet facility ramp-up drives downstream margin capture
- DoD funding and tariffs shield Mountain Pass from Chinese rare earth competition
| Net Income: -60.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 511.5% < 20% (prev 286.4%; Δ 225.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -84.0m > Net Income -60.6m |
| Net Debt (-509.6m) to EBITDA (61.8m): -8.25 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 9.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (178.2m) vs 12m ago 8.78% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -4.56% > 18% (prev -23.25%; Δ 18.69% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 10.07% > 50% (prev 10.36%; Δ -0.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM -52.9m / Interest Expense TTM 35.5m) |
| A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 1.75b - Total Current Liabilities 183.5m) / Total Assets 3.73b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 206.2m / Total Assets 3.73b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -52.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.03b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 1.96b / Total Liabilities 1.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.97 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 96.7m/64.9m, Revenue 305.4m/242.1m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 3.05 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 305.4m / 242.1m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI -60.6m - CFO -84.0m) / TA 3.73b) |
| Beneish M = -1.47 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of August 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 55.66 with a total of 5,864,532 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +17.20%, over one month by +12.44%, over three months by -12.66% and over the past year by -26.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 51.70 (which is 7.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
MP Materials has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MP.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 75.3 | 35.2% |
P/E Forward = 625.0
P/S = 23.1524
P/B = 4.9736
Revenue TTM = 305.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -52.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 61.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 934.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 74.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 943.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.43m
Net Debt = -509.6m USD (calculated: Debt 943.0m - CCE 1.45b)
Enterprise Value = 9.13b USD (9.64b + Debt 943.0m - CCE 1.45b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.49 (Ebit TTM -52.9m / Interest Expense TTM 35.5m)
EV/FCF = -18.09x (Enterprise Value 9.13b / FCF TTM -504.6m)
FCF Yield = -5.53% (FCF TTM -504.6m / Enterprise Value 9.13b)
FCF Margin = -165.2% (FCF TTM -504.6m / Revenue TTM 305.4m)
Net Margin = -19.85% (Net Income TTM -60.6m / Revenue TTM 305.4m)
Gross Margin = -4.56% ((Revenue TTM 305.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 319.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.37% (prev -17.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.45 (Enterprise Value 9.13b / Total Assets 3.73b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.77% (Interest Expense 35.5m / Debt 943.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -41.8m (EBIT -52.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 9.51 (Total Current Assets 1.75b / Total Current Liabilities 183.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 943.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = -8.25 (Net Debt -509.6m / EBITDA 61.8m)
Debt / FCF = 1.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -509.6m / FCF TTM -504.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.00% (Net Income -60.6m / Total Assets 3.73b)
RoE = -2.66% (Net Income TTM -60.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.28b)
RoCE = -1.65% (EBIT -52.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.28b + L.T.Debt 934.6m))
RoIC = -1.16% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -41.8m / Invested Capital 3.60b)
WACC = 10.64% (E(9.64b)/V(10.6b) * Re(11.39%) + D(943.0m)/V(10.6b) * Rd(3.77%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 46.63 | Cagr: -2.07%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -504.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 21.11 | Revenue CAGR: 4.22% | SUE: 1.13 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.01 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-36% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.00 | Chg30d=-101.11% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+99.1% | GrowthRev=+100.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=-14.53% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+41738.9% | GrowthRev=+78.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=4, down=15)