MP Stock Analysis: MP Materials | NYSE
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.663m USD | 12M Return: 64.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 292M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -4.5%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) is a U.S.-based producer of rare earth materials and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing facility in San Bernardino County, California-one of the few large-scale rare earth mining and processing operations outside of China. The company reports through two business segments: Materials, which encompasses the Mountain Pass mining and processing operations, and Magnetics, which produces neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal and manufactures NdFeB permanent magnets used in high-performance applications.
The company is classified within the GICS Materials sector (Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry) and trades as a large-cap stock following its 2020 listing. Rare earth materials and NdFeB magnets are key inputs for electric vehicle motors, wind turbine generators, electronics, and defense systems, positioning MP Materials as a domestic supplier within a supply chain that is heavily concentrated in Asia. MP Materials was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
- NdPr oxide pricing swings on Chinese export quotas and EV demand
- Fort Worth magnet facility ramp-up drives downstream margin capture
- DoD funding and tariffs shield Mountain Pass from Chinese rare earth competition
| Net Income: -71.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.95 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 506.8% < 20% (prev 358.7%; Δ 148.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -94.5m > Net Income -71.2m |
| Net Debt (-682.8m) to EBITDA (18.8m): -36.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.18 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (199.2m) vs 12m ago 21.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.16% > 18% (prev -32.83%; Δ 56.99% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 11.20% > 50% (prev 9.12%; Δ 2.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.91 > 6 (EBIT TTM -90.9m / Interest Expense TTM 31.2m) |
| A: 0.46 (Total Current Assets 2.05b - Total Current Liabilities 285.3m) / Total Assets 3.84b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 226.5m / Total Assets 3.84b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -90.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.10b) |
| D: 1.63 (Book Value of Equity 2.38b / Total Liabilities 1.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.72 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.66 (Receivables 119.3m/112.7m, Revenue 347.6m/216.0m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 3.70 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.61 (Revenue 347.6m / 216.0m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI -71.2m - CFO -94.5m) / TA 3.84b) |
| Beneish M = -1.27 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 53.31 with a total of 4,645,050 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.15%, over one month by -26.20%, over three months by +7.20% and over the past year by +64.69%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 49.00 (which is 8.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
MP Materials has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MP.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 80.4 | 50.9% |
P/E Forward = 500.0
P/S = 27.8018
P/B = 4.9122
Revenue TTM = 347.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -90.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 18.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 932.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 76.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.43m
Net Debt = -682.8m USD (calculated: Debt 1.06b - CCE 1.74b)
Enterprise Value = 8.98b USD (9.66b + Debt 1.06b - CCE 1.74b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.91 (Ebit TTM -90.9m / Interest Expense TTM 31.2m)
EV/FCF = -58.04x (Enterprise Value 8.98b / FCF TTM -154.7m)
FCF Yield = -1.72% (FCF TTM -154.7m / Enterprise Value 8.98b)
FCF Margin = -44.51% (FCF TTM -154.7m / Revenue TTM 347.6m)
Net Margin = -20.48% (Net Income TTM -71.2m / Revenue TTM 347.6m)
Gross Margin = 24.16% ((Revenue TTM 347.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 263.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.14% (prev 32.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.34 (Enterprise Value 8.98b / Total Assets 3.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.96% (Interest Expense 31.2m / Debt 1.06b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -71.8m (EBIT -90.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.43 (Total Current Assets 2.05b / Total Current Liabilities 318.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.44 (Debt 1.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.38b)
Debt / EBITDA = -36.39 (Net Debt -682.8m / EBITDA 18.8m)
Debt / FCF = 4.41 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -682.8m / FCF TTM -154.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.29% (Net Income -71.2m / Total Assets 3.84b)
RoE = -3.49% (Net Income TTM -71.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.04b)
RoCE = -3.06% (EBIT -90.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.04b + L.T.Debt 932.9m))
RoIC = -1.99% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -71.8m / Invested Capital 3.61b)
WACC = 10.53% (E(9.66b)/V(10.7b) * Re(11.43%) + D(1.06b)/V(10.7b) * Rd(2.96%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 13.48 | Cagr: 5.24%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -154.7m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -4.55 | Revenue CAGR: -1.22% | SUE: 3.35 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=-30.07% | Revisions=-60% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=-24.73% | Revisions=+8% | GrowthEPS=+195.2% | GrowthRev=+99.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.04 | Chg30d=-11.33% | Revisions=-43% | GrowthEPS=+353.5% | GrowthRev=+75.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -60%