(MP) MP Materials - Overview
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 10.690m USD | Total Return: 187.4% in 12m
Industry Rotation: -3.3
Avg Turnover: 408M
EPS Trend: -73.4%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -19.8%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Share dilution 21.7% YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio -2.9 is critical
Beneish M-Score -1.27 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Volatile
Tailwinds
Confidence
MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) owns and operates the Mountain Pass facility in California, the only scaled rare earth mining and processing site in North America. The company is vertically integrated across two segments: Materials, focusing on the extraction of rare earth oxides, and Magnetics, which develops NdPr metal and NdFeB permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors and wind turbines.
Rare earth elements are critical components for high-strength permanent magnets, which are essential for the global transition toward electrification and renewable energy infrastructure. To reduce reliance on overseas supply chains, the company is expanding its domestic manufacturing capabilities to include alloy production and magnet fabrication. Investors should examine the detailed fundamental analysis on ValueRay to better understand the companys valuation.
As a key player in the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry, MP Materials focuses on Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr), which represents a significant portion of the market value for rare earth materials. The business model shifts from commodity extraction to specialized industrial manufacturing to capture more value along the supply chain.
- Neodymium-Praseodymium price volatility dictates quarterly revenue and net income margins
- Domestic vertical integration milestones reduce reliance on Chinese processing infrastructure
- Department of Defense contracts and national security initiatives provide capital support
- Global electric vehicle adoption rates drive long-term demand for rare earth magnets
- Operational scaling at Mountain Pass facility impacts unit production cost efficiency
| Net Income: -71.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.83 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 506.8% < 20% (prev 358.7%; Δ 148.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -94.5m > Net Income -71.2m |
| Net Debt (-691.2m) to EBITDA (18.8m): -36.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.18 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (199.2m) vs 12m ago 21.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.16% > 18% (prev -0.33%; Δ 2.45k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 11.20% > 50% (prev 9.12%; Δ 2.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.91 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 18.8m / Interest Expense TTM 31.2m) |
| A: 0.46 (Total Current Assets 2.05b - Total Current Liabilities 285.3m) / Total Assets 3.84b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 226.5m / Total Assets 3.84b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -90.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.10b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 226.4m / Total Liabilities 1.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.17 = A |
| DSRI: 0.66 (Receivables 119.3m/112.7m, Revenue 347.6m/216.0m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 3.70 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.61 (Revenue 347.6m / 216.0m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI -71.2m - CFO -94.5m) / TA 3.84b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.27 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.14%, over one month by +2.94%, over three months by +7.59% and over the past year by +187.38%.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 80.9 | 32% |
P/S = 30.7572
P/B = 6.1021
Revenue TTM = 347.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -90.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 18.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 931.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 76.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.05b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -691.2m USD (recalculated: Debt 1.05b - CCE 1.74b)
Enterprise Value = 10.00b USD (10.69b + Debt 1.05b - CCE 1.74b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.91 (Ebit TTM -90.9m / Interest Expense TTM 31.2m)
EV/FCF = -31.87x (Enterprise Value 10.00b / FCF TTM -313.8m)
FCF Yield = -3.14% (FCF TTM -313.8m / Enterprise Value 10.00b)
FCF Margin = -90.27% (FCF TTM -313.8m / Revenue TTM 347.6m)
Net Margin = -20.48% (Net Income TTM -71.2m / Revenue TTM 347.6m)
Gross Margin = 24.16% ((Revenue TTM 347.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 263.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.14% (prev 32.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.60 (Enterprise Value 10.00b / Total Assets 3.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.70% (Interest Expense 7.36m / Debt 1.05b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -71.8m (EBIT -90.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.18 (Total Current Assets 2.05b / Total Current Liabilities 285.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.44 (Debt 1.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.38b)
Debt / EBITDA = -36.83 (Net Debt -691.2m / EBITDA 18.8m)
Debt / FCF = 2.20 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -691.2m / FCF TTM -313.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.29% (Net Income -71.2m / Total Assets 3.84b)
RoE = -3.49% (Net Income TTM -71.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.04b)
RoCE = -3.06% (EBIT -90.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.04b + L.T.Debt 931.3m))
RoIC = -2.74% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -71.8m / Invested Capital 2.62b)
WACC = 9.46% (E(10.69b)/V(11.74b) * Re(10.33%) + D(1.05b)/V(11.74b) * Rd(0.70%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 10.43%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -313.8m)
EPS Correlation: -73.38 | EPS CAGR: -50.84% | SUE: -1.06 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -19.82 | Revenue CAGR: -2.03% | SUE: 3.35 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=+32.70% | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=+1.15% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=+26.84% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+238.4% | GrowthRev=+101.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.23 | Chg30d=-1.92% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+270.0% | GrowthRev=+75.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%