MP Stock Analysis: MP Materials | NYSE
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 10.095m USD | 12M Return: -12.1% | US5533681012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 347M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 21.1%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 6.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) is a U.S.-based producer of rare earth materials and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing facility in San Bernardino County, California-one of the few large-scale rare earth mining and processing operations outside of China. The company reports through two business segments: Materials, which encompasses the Mountain Pass mining and processing operations, and Magnetics, which produces neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal and manufactures NdFeB permanent magnets used in high-performance applications.
The company is classified within the GICS Materials sector (Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry) and trades as a large-cap stock following its 2020 listing. Rare earth materials and NdFeB magnets are key inputs for electric vehicle motors, wind turbine generators, electronics, and defense systems, positioning MP Materials as a domestic supplier within a supply chain that is heavily concentrated in Asia. MP Materials was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
- NdPr oxide pricing swings on Chinese export quotas and EV demand
- Fort Worth magnet facility ramp-up drives downstream margin capture
- DoD funding and tariffs shield Mountain Pass from Chinese rare earth competition
| Net Income: -60.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 511.5% < 20% (prev 286.4%; Δ 225.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -84.0m > Net Income -60.6m |
| Net Debt (-509.6m) to EBITDA (61.8m): -8.25 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 9.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (178.2m) vs 12m ago 8.78% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -4.56% > 18% (prev -23.25%; Δ 18.69% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 10.07% > 50% (prev 10.36%; Δ -0.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM -52.9m / Interest Expense TTM 35.5m) |
| A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 1.75b - Total Current Liabilities 183.5m) / Total Assets 3.73b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 206.2m / Total Assets 3.73b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -52.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.03b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 1.96b / Total Liabilities 1.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.97 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 96.7m/64.9m, Revenue 305.4m/242.1m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 3.05 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 305.4m / 242.1m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI -60.6m - CFO -84.0m) / TA 3.73b) |
| Beneish M = -1.47 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of August 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 60.05 with a total of 8,383,006 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.23%, over one month by +29.70%, over three months by -2.74% and over the past year by -12.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 52.20 (which is 13.1% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
MP Materials has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MP.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 75.4 | 25.5% |
P/E Forward = 625.0
P/S = 24.252
P/B = 5.1565
Revenue TTM = 305.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -52.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 61.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 934.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 74.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 943.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.43m
Net Debt = -509.6m USD (calculated: Debt 943.0m - CCE 1.45b)
Enterprise Value = 9.59b USD (10.1b + Debt 943.0m - CCE 1.45b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.49 (Ebit TTM -52.9m / Interest Expense TTM 35.5m)
EV/FCF = -19.00x (Enterprise Value 9.59b / FCF TTM -504.6m)
FCF Yield = -5.26% (FCF TTM -504.6m / Enterprise Value 9.59b)
FCF Margin = -165.2% (FCF TTM -504.6m / Revenue TTM 305.4m)
Net Margin = -19.85% (Net Income TTM -60.6m / Revenue TTM 305.4m)
Gross Margin = -4.56% ((Revenue TTM 305.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 319.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.37% (prev -17.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.57 (Enterprise Value 9.59b / Total Assets 3.73b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.77% (Interest Expense 35.5m / Debt 943.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -41.8m (EBIT -52.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 9.51 (Total Current Assets 1.75b / Total Current Liabilities 183.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 943.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = -8.25 (Net Debt -509.6m / EBITDA 61.8m)
Debt / FCF = 1.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -509.6m / FCF TTM -504.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.00% (Net Income -60.6m / Total Assets 3.73b)
RoE = -2.66% (Net Income TTM -60.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.28b)
RoCE = -1.65% (EBIT -52.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.28b + L.T.Debt 934.6m))
RoIC = -1.16% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -41.8m / Invested Capital 3.60b)
WACC = 10.56% (E(10.1b)/V(11.0b) * Re(11.27%) + D(943.0m)/V(11.0b) * Rd(3.77%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 46.63 | Cagr: -2.07%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -504.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 21.11 | Revenue CAGR: 4.22% | SUE: 1.13 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-30% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=-99.56% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+100.3% | GrowthRev=+101.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=-12.73% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+107049.4% | GrowthRev=+79.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -48% (up=4, down=14)