MP Stock Analysis: MP Materials | NYSE
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.697m USD | 12M Return: -31.9% | US5533681012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 249M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 21.1%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) is a Las Vegas-based company founded in 2017 that produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere, operating through two segments: Materials, which owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine and processing facility in San Bernardino County, California, and Magnetics, which produces magnetic precursor products such as NdPr metal and manufactures NdFeB permanent magnets. As the only scaled rare earth producer in the United States, Mountain Pass holds strategic significance given the limited global supply of these materials, which are essential inputs for electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense systems, and other clean energy and advanced technology applications.
- NdPr oxide pricing drives Materials segment margins
- Magnetics segment ramp accelerates NdFeB magnet output
- DoD funding and Section 232 tariffs support domestic rare earth demand
| Net Income: -60.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 511.5% < 20% (prev 286.4%; Δ 225.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -84.0m > Net Income -60.6m |
| Net Debt (-509.6m) to EBITDA (61.8m): -8.25 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 9.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (178.2m) vs 12m ago 8.78% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -4.56% > 18% (prev -23.25%; Δ 18.69% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 10.07% > 50% (prev 10.36%; Δ -0.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM -52.9m / Interest Expense TTM 35.5m) |
| A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 1.75b - Total Current Liabilities 183.5m) / Total Assets 3.73b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 206.2m / Total Assets 3.73b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -52.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.03b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 1.96b / Total Liabilities 1.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.97 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 96.7m/64.9m, Revenue 305.4m/242.1m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 3.05 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 305.4m / 242.1m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI -60.6m - CFO -84.0m) / TA 3.73b) |
| Beneish M = -1.47 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 46.09 with a total of 6,805,429 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.51%, over one month by -14.24%, over three months by -15.09% and over the past year by -31.85%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 42.80 (which is 7.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
MP Materials has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MP.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 74.3 | 61.2% |
P/E Forward = 47.3934
P/S = 20.8932
P/B = 4.4486
Revenue TTM = 305.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -52.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 61.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 934.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 74.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 943.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.43m
Net Debt = -509.6m USD (calculated: Debt 943.0m - CCE 1.45b)
Enterprise Value = 8.19b USD (8.70b + Debt 943.0m - CCE 1.45b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.49 (Ebit TTM -52.9m / Interest Expense TTM 35.5m)
EV/FCF = -16.23x (Enterprise Value 8.19b / FCF TTM -504.6m)
FCF Yield = -6.16% (FCF TTM -504.6m / Enterprise Value 8.19b)
FCF Margin = -165.2% (FCF TTM -504.6m / Revenue TTM 305.4m)
Net Margin = -19.85% (Net Income TTM -60.6m / Revenue TTM 305.4m)
Gross Margin = -4.56% ((Revenue TTM 305.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 319.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.37% (prev -17.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.20 (Enterprise Value 8.19b / Total Assets 3.73b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.77% (Interest Expense 35.5m / Debt 943.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -41.8m (EBIT -52.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 9.51 (Total Current Assets 1.75b / Total Current Liabilities 183.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 943.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = -8.25 (Net Debt -509.6m / EBITDA 61.8m)
Debt / FCF = 1.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -509.6m / FCF TTM -504.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.00% (Net Income -60.6m / Total Assets 3.73b)
RoE = -2.66% (Net Income TTM -60.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.28b)
RoCE = -1.65% (EBIT -52.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.28b + L.T.Debt 934.6m))
RoIC = -1.16% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -41.8m / Invested Capital 3.60b)
WACC = 10.73% (E(8.70b)/V(9.64b) * Re(11.57%) + D(943.0m)/V(9.64b) * Rd(3.77%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 46.63 | Cagr: -2.07%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -504.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 21.11 | Revenue CAGR: 4.22% | SUE: 1.13 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.01 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-42% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.03 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-58% | GrowthEPS=+112.2% | GrowthRev=+101.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=-0.46% | Revisions=-53% | GrowthEPS=+2886.7% | GrowthRev=+77.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -61% (up=5, down=25)