(MPC) Marathon Petroleum - Ratings and Ratios
Gasoline, Diesel, Asphalt, Propane, Petrochemicals, Renewable Diesel
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.93% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 10.94% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.91% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 49.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 48.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.23% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.72 |
| Alpha | 10.69 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.46 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.562 |
| Beta | 1.008 |
| Beta Downside | 1.359 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.75% |
| Mean DD | 15.18% |
| Median DD | 15.24% |
Description: MPC Marathon Petroleum September 26, 2025
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC) is a U.S.-based integrated downstream energy firm operating through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel.
Refining & Marketing runs a network of refineries on the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast, converting crude oil and other feedstocks into transportation fuels (reformulated and blend-grade gasoline), heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane and petrochemicals. The segment supplies wholesale customers, spot-market buyers, and ARCO-branded dealers, and also purchases refined products and ethanol for resale.
Midstream handles the gathering, transport, storage and marketing of crude oil, refined products-including renewable diesel-and natural-gas liquids via pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges. It also processes and moves natural gas.
Renewable Diesel converts renewable feedstocks into low-carbon diesel, which is sold through the Midstream network, third-party distributors, spot markets and long-term contracts to ARCO dealers.
Key operational metrics (as of Q2 2024) show a refining capacity of ~3.1 million barrels per day and a renewable diesel output of ~200 k bpd, positioning MPC among the largest U.S. diesel producers. The segment’s EBITDA margin has been volatile, tracking the “crack spread” (the price differential between refined products and crude oil), which fell to 8.2 % in Q2 2024 after a 12-month high of 13.5 % amid tightening gasoline inventories.
Sector drivers that materially affect MPC’s performance include (1) U.S. gasoline demand trends tied to seasonal travel patterns and the ongoing shift toward electric vehicles, (2) regulatory pressure on low-carbon fuels that is boosting renewable diesel demand-U.S. renewable diesel consumption grew ~15 % YoY in 2023-and (3) crude oil price volatility, which directly impacts refining margins and the economics of feedstock procurement.
Given these dynamics, a deeper quantitative dive into MPC’s margin outlook and renewable diesel growth trajectory can be valuable; the ValueRay platform provides tools to model those scenarios in detail.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (1.52b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 8.06b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.53pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 4.39% (prev 3.44%; Δ 0.96pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 7.39b > Net Income 1.52b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (31.55b) to EBITDA (10.20b) ratio: 3.09 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.32 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (304.0m) change vs 12m ago -8.43% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 7.38% (prev 7.31%; Δ 0.07pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 164.7% (prev 177.8%; Δ -13.13pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.04 (EBITDA TTM 10.20b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.23
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 24.63b - Total Current Liabilities 18.73b) / Total Assets 83.24b |
| (B) 0.46 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 38.52b / Total Assets 83.24b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 6.95b / Avg Total Assets 81.54b |
| (D) 0.65 = Book Value of Equity 38.42b / Total Liabilities 59.35b |
| Total Rating: 3.23 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 52.21
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.82% |
| 3. FCF Margin 3.18% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.00 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.09 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.56)% |
| 7. RoE 8.94% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -57.16% |
| 9. EPS Trend -35.66% |
What is the price of MPC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.63%, over one month by +1.30%, over three months by +8.59% and over the past year by +26.82%.
Is MPC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MPC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 199.9 | 3.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 199.9 | 3.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 236.5 | 22.1% |
MPC Fundamental Data Overview November 22, 2025
P/E Trailing = 20.0075
P/E Forward = 14.1243
P/S = 0.4276
P/B = 3.4377
P/EG = 1.3164
Beta = 0.714
Revenue TTM = 134.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.95b USD
EBITDA TTM = 10.20b USD
Long Term Debt = 31.23b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.05b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 34.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 31.55b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 88.67b USD (57.12b + Debt 34.20b - CCE 2.65b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.04 (Ebit TTM 6.95b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b)
FCF Yield = 4.82% (FCF TTM 4.28b / Enterprise Value 88.67b)
FCF Margin = 3.18% (FCF TTM 4.28b / Revenue TTM 134.30b)
Net Margin = 1.13% (Net Income TTM 1.52b / Revenue TTM 134.30b)
Gross Margin = 7.38% ((Revenue TTM 134.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 124.39b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.62% (prev 8.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 88.67b / Total Assets 83.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 368.0m / Debt 34.20b)
Taxrate = 19.14% (460.0m / 2.40b)
NOPAT = 5.62b (EBIT 6.95b * (1 - 19.14%))
Current Ratio = 1.32 (Total Current Assets 24.63b / Total Current Liabilities 18.73b)
Debt / Equity = 2.00 (Debt 34.20b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.09 (Net Debt 31.55b / EBITDA 10.20b)
Debt / FCF = 7.38 (Net Debt 31.55b / FCF TTM 4.28b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 16.97b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.82% (Net Income 1.52b / Total Assets 83.24b)
RoE = 8.94% (Net Income TTM 1.52b / Total Stockholder Equity 16.97b)
RoCE = 14.42% (EBIT 6.95b / Capital Employed (Equity 16.97b + L.T.Debt 31.23b))
RoIC = 11.97% (NOPAT 5.62b / Invested Capital 46.94b)
WACC = 6.41% (E(57.12b)/V(91.32b) * Re(9.73%) + D(34.20b)/V(91.32b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -10.20%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.77% ; FCFE base≈4.70b ; Y1≈3.72b ; Y5≈2.48b
Fair Price DCF = 117.3 (DCF Value 35.25b / Shares Outstanding 300.6m; 5y FCF grow -24.76% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -35.66 | EPS CAGR: 25.09% | SUE: -0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -57.16 | Revenue CAGR: 0.39% | SUE: 3.63 | # QB: 3
Additional Sources for MPC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle