(MPC) Marathon Petroleum - Overview

Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 74.453m USD | Total Return: 64% in 12m

Gasoline, Diesel, Asphalt, Propane, Petrochemicals
Total Rating 71
Safety 75
Buy Signal 0.81
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Industry Rotation: +16.5
Market Cap: 74.5B
Avg Turnover: 565M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility34.0%
VaR 5th Pctl5.84%
VaR vs Median4.36%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.62
Rel. Str. IBD86.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group41.7
Character TTM
Beta0.707
Beta Downside0.810
Hurst Exponent0.598
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD44.75%
CAGR/Max DD0.80
CAGR/Mean DD2.43
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MPC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": -0.2, "2021-06": 0.67, "2021-09": 0.73, "2021-12": 1.3, "2022-03": 1.45, "2022-06": 10.61, "2022-09": 7.81, "2022-12": 6.65, "2023-03": 6.09, "2023-06": 5.32, "2023-09": 8.14, "2023-12": 3.98, "2024-03": 2.58, "2024-06": 4.12, "2024-09": 1.87, "2024-12": 0.77, "2025-03": -0.24, "2025-06": 3.96, "2025-09": 3.01, "2025-12": 4.07, "2026-03": 1.65,
EPS CAGR: -36.99%
EPS Trend: -78.8%
Last SUE: 1.75
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of MPC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 22711, 2021-06: 29615, 2021-09: 32321, 2021-12: 35336, 2022-03: 38058, 2022-06: 53795, 2022-09: 45787, 2022-12: 39813, 2023-03: 34864, 2023-06: 36343, 2023-09: 40917, 2023-12: 36255, 2024-03: 32706, 2024-06: 37914, 2024-09: 35107, 2024-12: 33137, 2025-03: 31517, 2025-06: 33799, 2025-09: 34809, 2025-12: 32574, 2026-03: 34568,
Rev. CAGR: -5.76%
Rev. Trend: -95.3%
Last SUE: 3.25
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Confidence, Garp

Description: MPC Marathon Petroleum

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading downstream energy firm operating an integrated network across the United States. The company’s primary operations are divided into three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel. Headquartered in Ohio, MPC manages a diverse portfolio of refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions, producing transportation fuels, asphalt, and petrochemicals.

The business model relies on a vast logistics infrastructure, including pipelines, terminals, and marine vessels, to transport crude oil and refined products. As a major player in the refining sector, MPCs profitability is heavily influenced by the crack spread, which is the pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it. Additionally, the company is expanding its footprint in the energy transition space by converting traditional facilities to process renewable feedstocks into diesel.

For a deeper look into the companys valuation metrics and historical performance, consider reviewing the data available on ValueRay. MPC distributes its products through a mix of wholesale markets, spot markets, and a network of branded retail outlets, including the ARCO brand.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Crack spreads and refining margins dictate core segment profitability and cash flow
  • MPLX partnership distributions provide stable midstream earnings and support aggressive buybacks
  • Crude oil price volatility and feedstock cost differentials impact operational output margins
  • Renewable diesel production scaling faces regulatory shifts and biofuel credit pricing risks
  • Federal environmental mandates and carbon intensity regulations increase long-term compliance costs
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 4.63b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.00 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 3.16% < 20% (prev 3.21%; Δ -0.05% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 9.44b > Net Income 4.63b
Net Debt (32.17b) to EBITDA (12.39b): 2.60 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.18 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (295.0m) vs 12m ago -5.75% < -2%
Gross Margin: 8.80% > 18% (prev 0.06%; Δ 873.9% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 159.9% > 50% (prev 168.7%; Δ -8.78% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.36 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 12.39b / Interest Expense TTM 1.43b)
Altman Z'' 3.16
A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 28.70b - Total Current Liabilities 24.41b) / Total Assets 88.19b
B: 0.45 (Retained Earnings 39.97b / Total Assets 88.19b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 9.12b / Avg Total Assets 84.91b)
D: 0.62 (Book Value of Equity 39.87b / Total Liabilities 64.76b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 3.16 = A
Beneish M -3.17
DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 14.63b/12.11b, Revenue 135.75b/137.68b)
GMI: 0.69 (GM 8.80% / 6.08%)
AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.22)
SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 135.75b / 137.68b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 4.63b - CFO 9.44b) / TA 88.19b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of MPC shares? As of May 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 258.37 with a total of 1,681,720 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.12%, over one month by +21.13%, over three months by +31.81% and over the past year by +64.01%.
Is MPC a buy, sell or hold? Marathon Petroleum has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.95. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MPC.
  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 5
  • Hold: 8
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MPC price?
Analysts Target Price 258.8 0.2%
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 19 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 16.7783
P/E Forward = 7.0472
P/S = 0.5477
P/B = 4.2671
P/EG = 0.9459
Revenue TTM = 135.75b USD
EBIT TTM = 9.12b USD
EBITDA TTM = 12.39b USD
Long Term Debt = 30.71b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.62b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 34.33b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 32.17b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 106.63b USD (74.45b + Debt 34.33b - CCE 2.15b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.36 (Ebit TTM 9.12b / Interest Expense TTM 1.43b)
EV/FCF = 18.70x (Enterprise Value 106.63b / FCF TTM 5.70b)
FCF Yield = 5.35% (FCF TTM 5.70b / Enterprise Value 106.63b)
FCF Margin = 4.20% (FCF TTM 5.70b / Revenue TTM 135.75b)
Net Margin = 3.41% (Net Income TTM 4.63b / Revenue TTM 135.75b)
Gross Margin = 8.80% ((Revenue TTM 135.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 123.81b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.57% (prev 8.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.21 (Enterprise Value 106.63b / Total Assets 88.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 370.0m / Debt 34.33b)
Taxrate = 17.70% (183.0m / 1.03b)
NOPAT = 7.51b (EBIT 9.12b * (1 - 17.70%))
Current Ratio = 1.18 (Total Current Assets 28.70b / Total Current Liabilities 24.41b)
Debt / Equity = 2.05 (Debt 34.33b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.75b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.60 (Net Debt 32.17b / EBITDA 12.39b)
Debt / FCF = 5.64 (Net Debt 32.17b / FCF TTM 5.70b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 16.95b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.46% (Net Income 4.63b / Total Assets 88.19b)
RoE = 27.33% (Net Income TTM 4.63b / Total Stockholder Equity 16.95b)
RoCE = 19.14% (EBIT 9.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 16.95b + L.T.Debt 30.71b))
RoIC = 15.40% (NOPAT 7.51b / Invested Capital 48.75b)
WACC = 6.08% (E(74.45b)/V(108.78b) * Re(8.47%) + D(34.33b)/V(108.78b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 8.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -10.33%
[DCF] Terminal Value 83.09% ; FCFF base≈5.20b ; Y1≈4.07b ; Y5≈2.64b
[DCF] Fair Price = 160.7 (EV 79.10b - Net Debt 32.17b = Equity 46.93b / Shares 291.9m; r=6.08% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -26.03% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -78.80 | EPS CAGR: -36.99% | SUE: 1.75 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -95.34 | Revenue CAGR: -5.76% | SUE: 3.25 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=11.26 | Chg30d=+43.98% | Revisions=+41% | Analysts=15
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=8.56 | Chg30d=+29.29% | Revisions=+41% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=28.16 | Chg30d=+35.34% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+163.1% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=22.38 | Chg30d=+20.87% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=-20.5% | GrowthRev=-7.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +60%