(MPC) Marathon Petroleum - Ratings and Ratios
Gasoline, Diesel, Asphalt, Propane, Petrochemicals, Renewable Diesel
MPC EPS (Earnings per Share)
MPC Revenue
Description: MPC Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC) is a U.S.-based integrated downstream energy firm operating through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel.
Refining & Marketing runs a network of refineries on the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast, converting crude oil and other feedstocks into transportation fuels (reformulated and blend-grade gasoline), heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane and petrochemicals. The segment supplies wholesale customers, spot-market buyers, and ARCO-branded dealers, and also purchases refined products and ethanol for resale.
Midstream handles the gathering, transport, storage and marketing of crude oil, refined products-including renewable diesel-and natural-gas liquids via pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges. It also processes and moves natural gas.
Renewable Diesel converts renewable feedstocks into low-carbon diesel, which is sold through the Midstream network, third-party distributors, spot markets and long-term contracts to ARCO dealers.
Key operational metrics (as of Q2 2024) show a refining capacity of ~3.1 million barrels per day and a renewable diesel output of ~200 k bpd, positioning MPC among the largest U.S. diesel producers. The segment’s EBITDA margin has been volatile, tracking the “crack spread” (the price differential between refined products and crude oil), which fell to 8.2 % in Q2 2024 after a 12-month high of 13.5 % amid tightening gasoline inventories.
Sector drivers that materially affect MPC’s performance include (1) U.S. gasoline demand trends tied to seasonal travel patterns and the ongoing shift toward electric vehicles, (2) regulatory pressure on low-carbon fuels that is boosting renewable diesel demand-U.S. renewable diesel consumption grew ~15 % YoY in 2023-and (3) crude oil price volatility, which directly impacts refining margins and the economics of feedstock procurement.
Given these dynamics, a deeper quantitative dive into MPC’s margin outlook and renewable diesel growth trajectory can be valuable; the ValueRay platform provides tools to model those scenarios in detail.
MPC Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 55,073m |
| Sub-Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| IPO / Inception | 2011-07-01 |
MPC Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 78.9% |
| Fundamental | 48.3% |
| Dividend Rating | 75.8% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 5.18% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.95 of 5 |
MPC Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 1.93% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 14.64% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 9.91% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 57.2% |
MPC Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 82.4% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 74% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 93.1% |
| CAGR 5y | 21.44% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.48 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 1.41 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 1.70 |
| Alpha | 7.55 |
| Beta | 0.883 |
| Volatility | 28.64% |
| Current Volume | 1709.6k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1526.6k |
| Stop Loss | 182.8 (-3%) |
| Signal | 0.80 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (2.13b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 7.98b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -5.71pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 3.36% (prev 4.97%; Δ -1.61pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.47b > Net Income 2.13b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (28.36b) to EBITDA (8.90b) ratio: 3.19 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.23 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (309.0m) change vs 12m ago -11.71% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 5.80% (prev 9.15%; Δ -3.35pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 162.5% (prev 173.5%; Δ -10.97pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.15 (EBITDA TTM 8.90b / Interest Expense TTM 1.36b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.10
| (A) 0.06 = (Total Current Assets 23.73b - Total Current Liabilities 19.25b) / Total Assets 78.48b |
| (B) 0.48 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 37.42b / Total Assets 78.48b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 5.65b / Avg Total Assets 81.86b |
| (D) 0.68 = Book Value of Equity 37.33b / Total Liabilities 55.22b |
| Total Rating: 3.10 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 48.32
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt = -0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.37% = 2.19 |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.74% = 0.69 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.81 = 1.05 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.19 = -2.01 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.12)% = 5.16 |
| 7. RoE 12.24% = 1.02 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -74.72% = -5.60 |
| 9. EPS Trend -73.46% = -3.67 |
What is the price of MPC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.56%, over one month by +0.69%, over three months by +8.18% and over the past year by +21.88%.
Is Marathon Petroleum a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of MPC is around 209.06 USD . This means that MPC is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +10.88% (Margin of Safety).
Is MPC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MPC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 194.9 | 3.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 194.9 | 3.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 228.6 | 21.3% |
Last update: 2025-10-18 05:03
MPC Fundamental Data Overview
P/E Trailing = 26.3299
P/E Forward = 13.6426
P/S = 0.4114
P/B = 3.5157
P/EG = 1.2716
Beta = 0.883
Revenue TTM = 133.05b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 8.90b USD
Long Term Debt = 26.84b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.27b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 30.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 28.36b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 83.44b USD (55.07b + Debt 30.04b - CCE 1.67b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.15 (Ebit TTM 5.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.36b)
FCF Yield = 4.37% (FCF TTM 3.65b / Enterprise Value 83.44b)
FCF Margin = 2.74% (FCF TTM 3.65b / Revenue TTM 133.05b)
Net Margin = 1.60% (Net Income TTM 2.13b / Revenue TTM 133.05b)
Gross Margin = 5.80% ((Revenue TTM 133.05b - Cost of Revenue TTM 125.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.36% (prev 4.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.06 (Enterprise Value 83.44b / Total Assets 78.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.15% (Interest Expense 344.0m / Debt 30.04b)
Taxrate = 14.27% (268.0m / 1.88b)
NOPAT = 4.84b (EBIT 5.65b * (1 - 14.27%))
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 23.73b / Total Current Liabilities 19.25b)
Debt / Equity = 1.81 (Debt 30.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.62b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.19 (Net Debt 28.36b / EBITDA 8.90b)
Debt / FCF = 7.78 (Net Debt 28.36b / FCF TTM 3.65b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.72% (Net Income 2.13b / Total Assets 78.48b)
RoE = 12.24% (Net Income TTM 2.13b / Total Stockholder Equity 17.42b)
RoCE = 12.76% (EBIT 5.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.42b + L.T.Debt 26.84b))
RoIC = 10.47% (NOPAT 4.84b / Invested Capital 46.24b)
WACC = 6.35% (E(55.07b)/V(85.11b) * Re(9.27%) + D(30.04b)/V(85.11b) * Rd(1.15%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 9.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -9.47%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.35% ; FCFE base≈5.72b ; Y1≈4.72b ; Y5≈3.41b
Fair Price DCF = 168.2 (DCF Value 51.13b / Shares Outstanding 304.0m; 5y FCF grow -21.05% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -73.46 | EPS CAGR: -21.88% | SUE: 1.39 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -74.72 | Revenue CAGR: -10.58% | SUE: 1.70 | # QB: 2
Additional Sources for MPC Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle