MPC Stock Analysis: Marathon Petroleum | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 93.513m USD | 12M Return: 123.2% | US56585A1025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 686M
EPS Trend: -39.8%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: -48.3%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operating through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment processes crude oil at U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast refineries, producing transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane, and petrochemicals, and sells through wholesale customers, spot markets, branded Marathon outlets, and ARCO-branded direct dealers. The Midstream segment handles gathering, transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and refined products via pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. The Renewable Diesel segment converts renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, which is sold through wholesale channels, spot markets, and the ARCO dealer network under long-term supply contracts.
As a participant in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry, MPC operates in the downstream portion of the energy value chain, which covers the refining, processing, and distribution of crude oil and refined products rather than exploration and production. The company, founded in 1887, has expanded beyond conventional refining into renewable diesel, reflecting a broader industry shift toward lower-carbon transportation fuels.
- Refining crack spreads widen on seasonal gasoline demand
- Renewable diesel margins tighten as LCFS credit prices decline
- Aggressive share buybacks and dividends accelerate capital returns
| Net Income: 8.55b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.46% < 20% (prev 3.35%; Δ 1.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 17.1b > Net Income 8.55b |
| Net Debt (28.0b) to EBITDA (17.4b): 1.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.25 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (291.0m) vs 12m ago -5.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.62% > 18% (prev 6.15%; Δ 5.47% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 178.2% > 50% (prev 170.2%; Δ 8.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM 14.1b / Interest Expense TTM 1.55b) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 34.3b - Total Current Liabilities 27.4b) / Total Assets 94.3b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 44.8b / Total Assets 94.3b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 14.1b / Avg Total Assets 86.4b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 19.1b / Total Liabilities 68.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.42 = A |
| DSRI: 1.23 (Receivables 15.7b/11.1b, Revenue 154b/134b) |
| GMI: 0.53 (GM 6.15% / 11.62%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 154b / 134b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 8.55b - CFO 17.1b) / TA 94.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.21 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 348.25 with a total of 2,081,172 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +16.96%, over one month by +17.30%, over three months by +38.73% and over the past year by +123.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 332.80 (which is 4.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Marathon Petroleum has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.95. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MPC.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 316.6 | -9.1% |
P/E Trailing = 10.3429
P/E Forward = 9.2937
P/S = 0.5836
P/B = 4.3897
P/EG = 1.4793
Revenue TTM = 154b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.1b USD
EBITDA TTM = 17.4b USD
Long Term Debt = 30.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.62b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 35.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.48b
Net Debt = 28.0b USD (calculated: Debt 35.8b - CCE 7.77b)
Enterprise Value = 122b USD (93.5b + Debt 35.8b - CCE 7.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.12 (Ebit TTM 14.1b / Interest Expense TTM 1.55b)
EV/FCF = 9.42x (Enterprise Value 122b / FCF TTM 12.9b)
FCF Yield = 10.62% (FCF TTM 12.9b / Enterprise Value 122b)
FCF Margin = 8.38% (FCF TTM 12.9b / Revenue TTM 154b)
Net Margin = 5.56% (Net Income TTM 8.55b / Revenue TTM 154b)
Gross Margin = 11.62% ((Revenue TTM 154b - Cost of Revenue TTM 136b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.18% (prev 9.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 122b / Total Assets 94.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.33% (Interest Expense 1.55b / Debt 35.8b)
Taxrate = 19.26% (2.46b / 12.8b)
NOPAT = 11.4b (EBIT 14.1b * (1 - 19.26%))
Current Ratio = 1.25 (Total Current Assets 34.3b / Total Current Liabilities 27.4b)
Debt / Equity = 1.87 (Debt 35.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.60 (Net Debt 28.0b / EBITDA 17.4b)
Debt / FCF = 2.17 (Net Debt 28.0b / FCF TTM 12.9b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.90% (Net Income 8.55b / Total Assets 94.3b)
RoE = 48.71% (Net Income TTM 8.55b / Total Stockholder Equity 17.6b)
RoCE = 29.29% (EBIT 14.1b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.6b + L.T.Debt 30.7b))
RoIC = 18.46% (NOPAT 11.4b / Invested Capital 61.8b)
WACC = 6.71% (E(93.5b)/V(129b) * Re(7.94%) + D(35.8b)/V(129b) * Rd(4.33%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.04 | Cagr: -9.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈9.20b ; Y1≈10.5b ; Y5≈15.5b
[DCF] Fair Price = 704.0 (EV 234b - Net Debt 28.0b = Equity 206b / Shares 291.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -39.81 | EPS CAGR: -20.90% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: -48.35 | Revenue CAGR: -2.82% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=19.44 | Chg30d=+100.31% | Revisions=+72% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=49.80 | Chg30d=+63.57% | Revisions=+81% | GrowthEPS=+365.5% | GrowthRev=+21.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=29.70 | Chg30d=+23.79% | Revisions=+32% | GrowthEPS=-40.4% | GrowthRev=-12.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +68% (up=38, down=6)