MPC Stock Analysis: Marathon Petroleum | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 71.965m USD | 12M Return: 58.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 616M
EPS Trend: -78.8%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -95.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operating through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment processes crude oil at U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast refineries, producing transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane, and petrochemicals, and sells through wholesale customers, spot markets, branded Marathon outlets, and ARCO-branded direct dealers. The Midstream segment handles gathering, transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and refined products via pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. The Renewable Diesel segment converts renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, which is sold through wholesale channels, spot markets, and the ARCO dealer network under long-term supply contracts.
As a participant in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry, MPC operates in the downstream portion of the energy value chain, which covers the refining, processing, and distribution of crude oil and refined products rather than exploration and production. The company, founded in 1887, has expanded beyond conventional refining into renewable diesel, reflecting a broader industry shift toward lower-carbon transportation fuels.
- Refining crack spreads widen on seasonal gasoline demand
- Renewable diesel margins tighten as LCFS credit prices decline
- Aggressive share buybacks and dividends accelerate capital returns
| Net Income: 4.63b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 3.16% < 20% (prev 3.21%; Δ -0.05% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 9.44b > Net Income 4.63b |
| Net Debt (33.7b) to EBITDA (12.4b): 2.72 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.18 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (295.0m) vs 12m ago -5.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 8.80% > 18% (prev 6.08%; Δ 2.72% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 159.9% > 50% (prev 168.7%; Δ -8.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM 9.12b / Interest Expense TTM 1.43b) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 28.7b - Total Current Liabilities 24.4b) / Total Assets 88.2b |
| B: 0.45 (Retained Earnings 40.0b / Total Assets 88.2b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 9.12b / Avg Total Assets 84.9b) |
| D: 0.26 (Book Value of Equity 16.8b / Total Liabilities 64.8b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.79 = A |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 14.6b/12.1b, Revenue 136b/138b) |
| GMI: 0.69 (GM 6.08% / 8.80%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 136b / 138b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 4.63b - CFO 9.44b) / TA 88.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 255.67 with a total of 1,321,656 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.45%, over one month by +2.40%, over three months by +11.64% and over the past year by +58.90%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 235.40 (which is 7.9% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Marathon Petroleum has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.95. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MPC.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 271.6 | 6.2% |
P/E Trailing = 16.2284
P/E Forward = 7.6805
P/S = 0.5294
P/B = 4.2957
P/EG = 1.2228
Revenue TTM = 136b USD
EBIT TTM = 9.12b USD
EBITDA TTM = 12.4b USD
Long Term Debt = 30.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.62b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 35.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.50b
Net Debt = 33.7b USD (calculated: Debt 35.8b - CCE 2.15b)
Enterprise Value = 106b USD (72.0b + Debt 35.8b - CCE 2.15b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.36 (Ebit TTM 9.12b / Interest Expense TTM 1.43b)
EV/FCF = 18.53x (Enterprise Value 106b / FCF TTM 5.70b)
FCF Yield = 5.40% (FCF TTM 5.70b / Enterprise Value 106b)
FCF Margin = 4.20% (FCF TTM 5.70b / Revenue TTM 136b)
Net Margin = 3.41% (Net Income TTM 4.63b / Revenue TTM 136b)
Gross Margin = 8.80% ((Revenue TTM 136b - Cost of Revenue TTM 124b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.57% (prev 8.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 106b / Total Assets 88.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.00% (Interest Expense 1.43b / Debt 35.8b)
Taxrate = 16.74% (1.28b / 7.67b)
NOPAT = 7.59b (EBIT 9.12b * (1 - 16.74%))
Current Ratio = 1.18 (Total Current Assets 28.7b / Total Current Liabilities 24.4b)
Debt / Equity = 2.14 (Debt 35.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.72 (Net Debt 33.7b / EBITDA 12.4b)
Debt / FCF = 5.91 (Net Debt 33.7b / FCF TTM 5.70b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 16.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.46% (Net Income 4.63b / Total Assets 88.2b)
RoE = 27.33% (Net Income TTM 4.63b / Total Stockholder Equity 16.9b)
RoCE = 19.14% (EBIT 9.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 16.9b + L.T.Debt 30.7b))
RoIC = 11.82% (NOPAT 7.59b / Invested Capital 64.2b)
WACC = 6.64% (E(72.0b)/V(108b) * Re(8.29%) + D(35.8b)/V(108b) * Rd(4.00%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 8.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -10.33%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈5.20b ; Y1≈5.97b ; Y5≈8.78b
[DCF] Fair Price = 337.2 (EV 132b - Net Debt 33.7b = Equity 98.5b / Shares 291.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -78.80 | EPS CAGR: -36.99% | SUE: 1.75 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -95.34 | Revenue CAGR: -5.76% | SUE: 3.25 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=9.41 | Chg30d=+9.63% | Revisions=+65% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=30.06 | Chg30d=+8.85% | Revisions=+56% | GrowthEPS=+180.9% | GrowthRev=+12.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=23.94 | Chg30d=+7.31% | Revisions=+54% | GrowthEPS=-20.4% | GrowthRev=-8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +65%