MPC Stock Analysis: Marathon Petroleum | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 118.601m USD | 12M Return: 134.8% | US56585A1025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.09B
EPS Trend: -39.8%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: -48.3%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated downstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operating through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment processes crude oil and other feedstocks at refineries located in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States, producing transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane, and petrochemicals. Its branded marketing operations include Marathon-branded outlets and ARCO-branded direct dealer locations, with sales channels spanning wholesale customers, spot market buyers, and international markets. The Midstream segment handles the gathering, transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and natural gas liquids through pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, distributed through both the companys Midstream infrastructure and third parties.
The downstream energy sector focuses on refining, processing, and distributing crude oil and natural gas into finished products, sitting downstream from exploration and production activities in the petroleum value chain. Marathon Petroleums inclusion of a Renewable Diesel segment reflects the industrys broader transition toward lower-carbon fuel alternatives, which can be used as a drop-in replacement for conventional petroleum diesel.
- Refining crack spreads widen boosting segment margins
- Renewable diesel capacity expansion drives revenue growth
- Capital returns via buybacks and dividends accelerate
| Net Income: 8.55b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.46% < 20% (prev 3.35%; Δ 1.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 17.1b > Net Income 8.55b |
| Net Debt (28.0b) to EBITDA (17.4b): 1.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.25 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (291.0m) vs 12m ago -5.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.62% > 18% (prev 6.15%; Δ 5.47% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 178.2% > 50% (prev 170.2%; Δ 8.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM 14.1b / Interest Expense TTM 1.55b) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 34.3b - Total Current Liabilities 27.4b) / Total Assets 94.3b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 44.8b / Total Assets 94.3b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 14.1b / Avg Total Assets 86.4b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 19.1b / Total Liabilities 68.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.42 = A |
| DSRI: 1.23 (Receivables 15.7b/11.1b, Revenue 154b/134b) |
| GMI: 0.53 (GM 6.15% / 11.62%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 154b / 134b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 8.55b - CFO 17.1b) / TA 94.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.21 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 442.26 with a total of 1,923,373 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +11.85%, over one month by +11.18%, over three months by +66.51% and over the past year by +134.75%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 422.10 (which is 4.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Marathon Petroleum has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MPC.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 385.6 | -12.8% |
P/E Trailing = 14.6388
P/E Forward = 5.4645
P/S = 0.7694
P/B = 5.7172
P/EG = 0.8956
Revenue TTM = 154b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.1b USD
EBITDA TTM = 17.4b USD
Long Term Debt = 30.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.62b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 35.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.48b
Net Debt = 28.0b USD (calculated: Debt 35.8b - CCE 7.77b)
Enterprise Value = 147b USD (119b + Debt 35.8b - CCE 7.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.12 (Ebit TTM 14.1b / Interest Expense TTM 1.55b)
EV/FCF = 11.37x (Enterprise Value 147b / FCF TTM 12.9b)
FCF Yield = 8.80% (FCF TTM 12.9b / Enterprise Value 147b)
FCF Margin = 8.38% (FCF TTM 12.9b / Revenue TTM 154b)
Net Margin = 5.56% (Net Income TTM 8.55b / Revenue TTM 154b)
Gross Margin = 11.62% ((Revenue TTM 154b - Cost of Revenue TTM 136b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.18% (prev 9.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.55 (Enterprise Value 147b / Total Assets 94.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.33% (Interest Expense 1.55b / Debt 35.8b)
Taxrate = 19.26% (2.46b / 12.8b)
NOPAT = 11.4b (EBIT 14.1b * (1 - 19.26%))
Current Ratio = 1.25 (Total Current Assets 34.3b / Total Current Liabilities 27.4b)
Debt / Equity = 1.87 (Debt 35.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.60 (Net Debt 28.0b / EBITDA 17.4b)
Debt / FCF = 2.17 (Net Debt 28.0b / FCF TTM 12.9b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.90% (Net Income 8.55b / Total Assets 94.3b)
RoE = 48.71% (Net Income TTM 8.55b / Total Stockholder Equity 17.6b)
RoCE = 29.29% (EBIT 14.1b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.6b + L.T.Debt 30.7b))
RoIC = 18.46% (NOPAT 11.4b / Invested Capital 61.8b)
WACC = 7.03% (E(119b)/V(154b) * Re(8.10%) + D(35.8b)/V(154b) * Rd(4.33%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.04 | Cagr: -9.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈9.20b ; Y1≈10.5b ; Y5≈15.5b
[DCF] Fair Price = 731.9 (EV 234b - Net Debt 28.0b = Equity 206b / Shares 280.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -39.81 | EPS CAGR: -20.90% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: -48.35 | Revenue CAGR: -2.82% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=23.13 | Chg30d=+16.71% | Revisions=+73% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=57.41 | Chg30d=+13.27% | Revisions=+75% | GrowthEPS=+436.6% | GrowthRev=+25.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=49.60 | Chg30d=+53.01% | Revisions=+77% | GrowthEPS=-13.6% | GrowthRev=-11.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +90% (up=27, down=0)