(MPC) Marathon Petroleum - Ratings and Ratios
Gasoline, Diesel, Asphalt, Petrochemicals, Renewable Diesel
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.96% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 10.07% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.91% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 49.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 47.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.45% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.80 |
| Alpha | 10.30 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.54 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.598 |
| Beta | 1.003 |
| Beta Downside | 1.370 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.75% |
| Mean DD | 15.11% |
| Median DD | 15.24% |
Description: MPC Marathon Petroleum December 02, 2025
Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC) is an integrated downstream energy firm operating in the United States across three core segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing unit processes crude oil and feedstocks at facilities in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast, producing transportation fuels (reformulated and blend-grade gasoline), heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane, and petrochemicals, which it sells wholesale, spot-market, and through ARCO-branded dealer contracts.
The Midstream segment provides the logistical backbone-pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges-that moves crude, refined products, renewable diesel, natural gas, and NGLs. The Renewable Diesel segment converts renewable feedstocks into low-carbon diesel, leveraging the same midstream network to market the product to wholesale buyers, spot traders, and ARCO dealers under long-term supply agreements.
Key operational metrics (as of Q3 2024) include a refining capacity of ~3.1 MMbbl/d, a midstream pipeline network of ~3,200 mi, and renewable diesel output of ~300 k bbl/d, positioning MPC to benefit from higher refined-product margins driven by seasonal gasoline demand spikes and the ongoing diesel-fuel-price spread. However, the companys earnings remain sensitive to crude-oil price volatility, regulatory carbon-intensity standards, and the pace of renewable-fuel adoption in the U.S. market.
For a deeper dive into MPC’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find the ValueRay platform’s data visualizations useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (1.52b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 8.06b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.53pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 4.39% (prev 3.44%; Δ 0.96pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 7.39b > Net Income 1.52b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (31.55b) to EBITDA (10.20b) ratio: 3.09 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.32 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (304.0m) change vs 12m ago -8.43% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 7.38% (prev 7.31%; Δ 0.07pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 164.7% (prev 177.8%; Δ -13.13pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.04 (EBITDA TTM 10.20b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.23
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 24.63b - Total Current Liabilities 18.73b) / Total Assets 83.24b |
| (B) 0.46 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 38.52b / Total Assets 83.24b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 6.95b / Avg Total Assets 81.54b |
| (D) 0.65 = Book Value of Equity 38.42b / Total Liabilities 59.35b |
| Total Rating: 3.23 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 52.13
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.76% |
| 3. FCF Margin 3.18% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.00 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.09 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.53)% |
| 7. RoE 8.94% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -57.32% |
| 9. EPS Trend -35.66% |
What is the price of MPC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.65%, over one month by +2.85%, over three months by +6.22% and over the past year by +29.75%.
Is MPC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MPC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 201.3 | 5.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 201.3 | 5.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 238.8 | 25.3% |
MPC Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Trailing = 20.3979
P/E Forward = 11.9048
P/S = 0.4364
P/B = 3.3712
P/EG = 1.0721
Beta = 0.714
Revenue TTM = 134.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.95b USD
EBITDA TTM = 10.20b USD
Long Term Debt = 31.23b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.05b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 34.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 31.55b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 89.84b USD (58.29b + Debt 34.20b - CCE 2.65b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.04 (Ebit TTM 6.95b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b)
FCF Yield = 4.76% (FCF TTM 4.28b / Enterprise Value 89.84b)
FCF Margin = 3.18% (FCF TTM 4.28b / Revenue TTM 134.30b)
Net Margin = 1.13% (Net Income TTM 1.52b / Revenue TTM 134.30b)
Gross Margin = 7.38% ((Revenue TTM 134.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 124.39b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.62% (prev 8.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.08 (Enterprise Value 89.84b / Total Assets 83.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 368.0m / Debt 34.20b)
Taxrate = 19.14% (460.0m / 2.40b)
NOPAT = 5.62b (EBIT 6.95b * (1 - 19.14%))
Current Ratio = 1.32 (Total Current Assets 24.63b / Total Current Liabilities 18.73b)
Debt / Equity = 2.00 (Debt 34.20b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.09 (Net Debt 31.55b / EBITDA 10.20b)
Debt / FCF = 7.38 (Net Debt 31.55b / FCF TTM 4.28b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 16.97b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.82% (Net Income 1.52b / Total Assets 83.24b)
RoE = 8.94% (Net Income TTM 1.52b / Total Stockholder Equity 16.97b)
RoCE = 14.42% (EBIT 6.95b / Capital Employed (Equity 16.97b + L.T.Debt 31.23b))
RoIC = 11.97% (NOPAT 5.62b / Invested Capital 46.94b)
WACC = 6.44% (E(58.29b)/V(92.50b) * Re(9.71%) + D(34.20b)/V(92.50b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -10.20%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.84% ; FCFE base≈4.70b ; Y1≈3.72b ; Y5≈2.48b
Fair Price DCF = 117.6 (DCF Value 35.35b / Shares Outstanding 300.6m; 5y FCF grow -24.76% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -35.66 | EPS CAGR: 25.09% | SUE: -0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -57.32 | Revenue CAGR: 0.39% | SUE: 3.63 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.21 | Chg30d=+1.281 | Revisions Net=+6 | Analysts=15
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.03 | Chg30d=+1.734 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+42.4% | Growth Revenue=-5.4%
Additional Sources for MPC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle