MPC Stock Analysis: Marathon Petroleum | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 106.920m USD | 12M Return: 106.1% | US56585A1025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 977M
EPS Trend: 13.4%
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 19.0%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated downstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operating through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment processes crude oil and other feedstocks at refineries located in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States, producing transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane, and petrochemicals. Its branded marketing operations include Marathon-branded outlets and ARCO-branded direct dealer locations, with sales channels spanning wholesale customers, spot market buyers, and international markets. The Midstream segment handles the gathering, transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and natural gas liquids through pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, distributed through both the companys Midstream infrastructure and third parties.
The downstream energy sector focuses on refining, processing, and distributing crude oil and natural gas into finished products, sitting downstream from exploration and production activities in the petroleum value chain. Marathon Petroleums inclusion of a Renewable Diesel segment reflects the industrys broader transition toward lower-carbon fuel alternatives, which can be used as a drop-in replacement for conventional petroleum diesel.
- Refining crack spreads widen boosting segment margins
- Renewable diesel capacity expansion drives revenue growth
- Capital returns via buybacks and dividends accelerate
| Net Income: 14.6b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.20 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.39% < 20% (prev 4.43%; Δ 2.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 25.2b > Net Income 14.6b |
| Net Debt (22.3b) to EBITDA (25.1b): 0.89 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (280.0m) vs 12m ago -7.89% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.62% > 18% (prev 6.66%; Δ 8.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 188.6% > 50% (prev 160.1%; Δ 28.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.60 > 6 (EBIT TTM 21.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.50b) |
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 42.0b - Total Current Liabilities 29.1b) / Total Assets 103b |
| B: 0.51 (Retained Earnings 52.0b / Total Assets 103b) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 21.8b / Avg Total Assets 92.9b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 23.2b / Total Liabilities 72.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.40 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 17.4b/10.5b, Revenue 175b/133b) |
| GMI: 0.43 (GM 6.66% / 15.62%) |
| AQI: 0.83 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.31 (Revenue 175b / 133b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 14.6b - CFO 25.2b) / TA 103b) |
| Beneish M = -3.21 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 377.32 with a total of 3,224,996 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.76%, over one month by -12.95%, over three months by +27.07% and over the past year by +106.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 350.30 (which is 7.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Marathon Petroleum has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.63. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MPC.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 457.3 | 21.2% |
P/E Trailing = 7.7805
P/E Forward = 6.0096
P/S = 0.6118
P/B = 6.2907
P/EG = 0.9855
Revenue TTM = 175b USD
EBIT TTM = 21.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.1b USD
Long Term Debt = 32.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 628.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 35.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.43b
Net Debt = 22.3b USD (calculated: Debt 35.9b - CCE 13.6b)
Enterprise Value = 129b USD (107b + Debt 35.9b - CCE 13.6b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.60 (Ebit TTM 21.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.50b)
EV/FCF = 6.20x (Enterprise Value 129b / FCF TTM 20.8b)
FCF Yield = 16.13% (FCF TTM 20.8b / Enterprise Value 129b)
FCF Margin = 11.90% (FCF TTM 20.8b / Revenue TTM 175b)
Net Margin = 8.35% (Net Income TTM 14.6b / Revenue TTM 175b)
Gross Margin = 15.62% ((Revenue TTM 175b - Cost of Revenue TTM 148b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.84% (prev 17.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 129b / Total Assets 103b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.17% (Interest Expense 1.50b / Debt 35.9b)
Taxrate = 20.87% (4.28b / 20.5b)
NOPAT = 17.3b (EBIT 21.8b * (1 - 20.87%))
Current Ratio = 1.45 (Total Current Assets 42.0b / Total Current Liabilities 29.1b)
Debt / Equity = 1.55 (Debt 35.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.89 (Net Debt 22.3b / EBITDA 25.1b)
Debt / FCF = 1.07 (Net Debt 22.3b / FCF TTM 20.8b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.75% (Net Income 14.6b / Total Assets 103b)
RoE = 76.65% (Net Income TTM 14.6b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.1b)
RoCE = 42.01% (EBIT 21.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 19.1b + L.T.Debt 32.9b))
RoIC = 26.45% (NOPAT 17.3b / Invested Capital 65.3b)
WACC = 6.59% (E(107b)/V(143b) * Re(7.69%) + D(35.9b)/V(143b) * Rd(4.17%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.00 | Cagr: -9.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈14.2b ; Y1≈16.3b ; Y5≈24.0b
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.24k (EV 361b - Net Debt 22.3b = Equity 339b / Shares 272.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 13.37 | EPS CAGR: 9.81% | SUE: 1.19 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 19.03 | Revenue CAGR: 1.70% | SUE: 3.68 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=16.21 | Chg30d=+66.88% | Revisions=+64% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=69.40 | Chg30d=+17.44% | Revisions=+63% | GrowthEPS=+548.6% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=61.86 | Chg30d=+18.67% | Revisions=+75% | GrowthEPS=-10.9% | GrowthRev=+13.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +77% (up=40, down=4)