MRP Stock Analysis: Millrose Properties | NYSE
REIT - Residential | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.711m USD | 12M Return: 3.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 46.6M
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Millrose Properties, Inc. (NYSE: MRP) is a Miami-based real estate platform that acquires and horizontally develops raw land into finished, build-ready homesites for sale or option to residential homebuilders on a just-in-time basis. Positioned as a homesite option provider rather than a traditional land banker, the company uses a proprietary technology platform with real-time data analytics to inform acquisitions and subjects each transaction to independent due diligence. By supplying a continuous pipeline of finished lots, Millrose enables its homebuilder partners to operate an asset-light model, supporting production volumes and balance sheet efficiency across market cycles.
The company is structured as a specialized REIT (Real Estate) and went public on February 7, 2025. The homesite option and land-banking sub-sector sits at the intersection of residential real estate and homebuilding supply chains, where finished lots are widely regarded as a critical, supply-constrained input to new home construction.
- Falling mortgage rates reignite homebuilder demand for finished homesites
- Land acquisition pipeline accelerates across Sun Belt growth markets
- Interest rate compression pressures yield spreads and capital allocation flexibility
| Net Income: 462.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.46 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 73.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 26.25% < 20% (prev 7.70k%; Δ -7.67k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.46 > 3% & CFO 4.45b > Net Income 462.9m |
| Net Debt (2.38b) to EBITDA (626.8m): 3.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (166.0m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 87.69% > 18% (prev 85.36%; Δ 2.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.52% > 50% (prev 1.16%; Δ 7.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.75 > 6 (EBIT TTM 606.5m / Interest Expense TTM 161.9m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 372.5m - Total Current Liabilities 185.4m) / Total Assets 9.57b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -21.8m / Total Assets 9.57b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 606.5m / Avg Total Assets 8.36b) |
| D: 1.58 (Book Value of Equity 5.85b / Total Liabilities 3.72b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.26 = BBB |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.33 with a total of 1,199,168 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.04%, over one month by +0.04%, over three months by -5.61% and over the past year by +3.61%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 27.30 (which is 3.6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Millrose Properties has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MRP.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 38.6 | 36.3% |
P/E Trailing = 10.1685
P/S = 6.6098
P/B = 0.8033
Revenue TTM = 712.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 606.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 626.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.42b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.43b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.38b USD (calculated: Debt 2.43b - CCE 49.3m)
Enterprise Value = 7.09b USD (4.71b + Debt 2.43b - CCE 49.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.75 (Ebit TTM 606.5m / Interest Expense TTM 161.9m)
EV/FCF = 1.59x (Enterprise Value 7.09b / FCF TTM 4.45b)
FCF Yield = 62.73% (FCF TTM 4.45b / Enterprise Value 7.09b)
FCF Margin = 624.2% (FCF TTM 4.45b / Revenue TTM 712.7m)
Net Margin = 64.96% (Net Income TTM 462.9m / Revenue TTM 712.7m)
Gross Margin = 87.69% ((Revenue TTM 712.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 87.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.56% (prev 85.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 7.09b / Total Assets 9.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.66% (Interest Expense 161.9m / Debt 2.43b)
Taxrate = 4.37% (21.2m / 484.1m)
NOPAT = 580.0m (EBIT 606.5m * (1 - 4.37%))
Current Ratio = 2.01 (Total Current Assets 372.5m / Total Current Liabilities 185.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 2.43b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.80 (Net Debt 2.38b / EBITDA 626.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.54 (Net Debt 2.38b / FCF TTM 4.45b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.54% (Net Income 462.9m / Total Assets 9.57b)
RoE = 7.90% (Net Income TTM 462.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.86b)
RoCE = 7.33% (EBIT 606.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.86b + L.T.Debt 2.42b))
RoIC = 6.08% (NOPAT 580.0m / Invested Capital 9.53b)
WACC = 8.00% (E(4.71b)/V(7.14b) * Re(8.84%) + D(2.43b)/V(7.14b) * Rd(6.66%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 8.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 84.98 | Cagr: 9.62%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈4.45b ; Y1≈4.47b ; Y5≈4.73b
[DCF] Fair Price = 461.8 (EV 73.6b - Net Debt 2.38b = Equity 71.2b / Shares 154.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -2.12 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=-3.18% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.80 | Chg30d=+0.63% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.10 | Chg30d=-1.11% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+27.3% | GrowthRev=+39.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.23 | Chg30d=+2.22% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+4.0% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -10% (up=3, down=4)