MRP Stock Analysis: Millrose Properties | NYSE
REIT - Residential | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.093m USD | 12M Return: -4.6% | US6011371027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 28.9M
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Millrose Properties, Inc. (NYSE: MRP) is a Miami-based real estate platform that acquires and horizontally develops raw land into finished, build-ready homesites for sale or option to residential homebuilders on a just-in-time basis. Positioned as a homesite option provider rather than a traditional land banker, the company uses a proprietary technology platform with real-time data analytics to inform acquisitions and subjects each transaction to independent due diligence. By supplying a continuous pipeline of finished lots, Millrose enables its homebuilder partners to operate an asset-light model, supporting production volumes and balance sheet efficiency across market cycles.
The company is structured as a specialized REIT (Real Estate) and went public on February 7, 2025. The homesite option and land-banking sub-sector sits at the intersection of residential real estate and homebuilding supply chains, where finished lots are widely regarded as a critical, supply-constrained input to new home construction.
- Falling mortgage rates reignite homebuilder demand for finished homesites
- Land acquisition pipeline accelerates across Sun Belt growth markets
- Interest rate compression pressures yield spreads and capital allocation flexibility
| Net Income: 476.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -14.26% < 20% (prev 107k%; Δ -107k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.54 > 3% & CFO 5.23b > Net Income 476.1m |
| Net Debt (2.44b) to EBITDA (667.6m): 3.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.44 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (166.0m) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.46% > 18% (prev 118.4%; Δ -29.90% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.60% > 50% (prev 0.09%; Δ 8.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.09 > 6 (EBIT TTM 647.3m / Interest Expense TTM 158.2m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 84.0m - Total Current Liabilities 192.4m) / Total Assets 9.71b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -23.7m / Total Assets 9.71b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 647.3m / Avg Total Assets 8.84b) |
| D: 1.52 (Book Value of Equity 5.85b / Total Liabilities 3.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.00 = BBB |
As of August 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.61 with a total of 708,905 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.72%, over one month by +7.07%, over three months by +11.67% and over the past year by -4.61%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.30 (which is 4.3% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
Millrose Properties has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MRP.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 37.6 | 22.8% |
P/E Trailing = 10.6864
P/S = 6.6961
P/B = 0.8785
Revenue TTM = 760.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 647.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 667.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.48b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.44b USD (calculated: Debt 2.48b - CCE 34.2m)
Enterprise Value = 7.54b USD (5.09b + Debt 2.48b - CCE 34.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.09 (Ebit TTM 647.3m / Interest Expense TTM 158.2m)
EV/FCF = -6.18x (Enterprise Value 7.54b / FCF TTM -1.22b)
FCF Yield = -16.18% (FCF TTM -1.22b / Enterprise Value 7.54b)
FCF Margin = -160.3% (FCF TTM -1.22b / Revenue TTM 760.5m)
Net Margin = 62.60% (Net Income TTM 476.1m / Revenue TTM 760.5m)
Gross Margin = 88.46% ((Revenue TTM 760.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 87.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.81% (prev 85.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.78 (Enterprise Value 7.54b / Total Assets 9.71b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.38% (Interest Expense 158.2m / Debt 2.48b)
Taxrate = 3.81% (18.9m / 494.9m)
NOPAT = 622.6m (EBIT 647.3m * (1 - 3.81%))
Current Ratio = 0.44 (Total Current Assets 84.0m / Total Current Liabilities 192.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 2.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.66 (Net Debt 2.44b / EBITDA 667.6m)
Debt / FCF = -2.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.44b / FCF TTM -1.22b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.39% (Net Income 476.1m / Total Assets 9.71b)
RoE = 8.13% (Net Income TTM 476.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.86b)
RoCE = 7.77% (EBIT 647.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.86b + L.T.Debt 2.48b))
RoIC = 6.56% (NOPAT 622.6m / Invested Capital 9.49b)
WACC = 7.94% (E(5.09b)/V(7.57b) * Re(8.82%) + D(2.48b)/V(7.57b) * Rd(6.38%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 8.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.57 | Cagr: 9.63%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.22b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=-0.21% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.11 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+27.3% | GrowthRev=+35.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.26 | Chg30d=+0.83% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+4.8% | GrowthRev=+6.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)