MRP Stock Analysis: Millrose Properties | NYSE
REIT - Residential | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.713m USD | 12M Return: -24.7% | US6011371027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 76.7M
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Millrose Properties, Inc. (NYSE: MRP) is a Miami-based real estate company that provides long-term capital to U.S. residential homebuilders and developers. The company acquires, finances, and develops residential land, delivering finished homesites to homebuilders on a just-in-time basis through capital-efficient structures. Its proprietary technology platform supports acquisition decisions with real-time data analytics, and each transaction is subject to independent due diligence. By offering a permanent capital solution, Millrose enables homebuilder partners to operate under an asset-light model, preserving balance sheet flexibility across varying market conditions.
The company operates within the real estate sector and is classified as a specialized REIT, having completed its IPO in February 2025. Its focus on the residential land and finished lots subsegment addresses what management describes as a constrained supply of entitled, ready-to-build homesites in the U.S. housing market.
- Mortgage rate declines boost homebuilder demand for finished lots
- Land acquisition pace accelerates as homebuilders pursue asset-light model
- Spread compression risk if land costs outpace rent growth
| Net Income: 476.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -14.26% < 20% (prev 107k%; Δ -107k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.54 > 3% & CFO 5.23b > Net Income 476.1m |
| Net Debt (2.44b) to EBITDA (673.4m): 3.63 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.44 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (166.0m) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.46% > 18% (prev 118.4%; Δ -29.90% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.60% > 50% (prev 0.09%; Δ 8.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 653.1m / Interest Expense TTM 158.2m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 84.0m - Total Current Liabilities 192.4m) / Total Assets 9.71b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -23.7m / Total Assets 9.71b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 653.1m / Avg Total Assets 8.84b) |
| D: 1.52 (Book Value of Equity 5.85b / Total Liabilities 3.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.01 = BBB |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.22 with a total of 4,937,977 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.19%, over one month by -25.58%, over three months by -22.61% and over the past year by -24.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 19.90 (which is 6.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Millrose Properties has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MRP.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 36.6 | 72.5% |
P/E Trailing = 7.7909
P/S = 4.8818
P/B = 0.7607
Revenue TTM = 760.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 653.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 673.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.48b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.44b USD (calculated: Debt 2.48b - CCE 34.2m)
Enterprise Value = 6.16b USD (3.71b + Debt 2.48b - CCE 34.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.13 (Ebit TTM 653.1m / Interest Expense TTM 158.2m)
EV/FCF = -5.05x (Enterprise Value 6.16b / FCF TTM -1.22b)
FCF Yield = -19.80% (FCF TTM -1.22b / Enterprise Value 6.16b)
FCF Margin = -160.3% (FCF TTM -1.22b / Revenue TTM 760.5m)
Net Margin = 62.60% (Net Income TTM 476.1m / Revenue TTM 760.5m)
Gross Margin = 88.46% ((Revenue TTM 760.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 87.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.81% (prev 85.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.63 (Enterprise Value 6.16b / Total Assets 9.71b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.38% (Interest Expense 158.2m / Debt 2.48b)
Taxrate = 3.81% (18.9m / 494.9m)
NOPAT = 628.2m (EBIT 653.1m * (1 - 3.81%))
Current Ratio = 0.44 (Total Current Assets 84.0m / Total Current Liabilities 192.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 2.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.63 (Net Debt 2.44b / EBITDA 673.4m)
Debt / FCF = -2.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.44b / FCF TTM -1.22b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.39% (Net Income 476.1m / Total Assets 9.71b)
RoE = 8.13% (Net Income TTM 476.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.86b)
RoCE = 7.84% (EBIT 653.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.86b + L.T.Debt 2.48b))
RoIC = 6.62% (NOPAT 628.2m / Invested Capital 9.49b)
WACC = 7.62% (E(3.71b)/V(6.19b) * Re(8.61%) + D(2.48b)/V(6.19b) * Rd(6.38%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 8.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.57 | Cagr: 9.63%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.22b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=-2.52% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.06 | Chg30d=-1.50% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+25.4% | GrowthRev=+35.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.24 | Chg30d=-0.61% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+5.8% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)