MSDL Stock Analysis: Morgan Stanley Direct | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.293m USD | 12M Return: -8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 8.62M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 22.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 2.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) is a business development company (BDC) listed on the NYSE that primarily invests in below-investment-grade debt issued by middle-market companies or by private equity sponsors financing acquisitions.
As a BDC, MSDL operates under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a regulatory framework that permits it to lend directly to private and smaller borrowers that may have limited access to traditional bank financing. Direct lending funds typically generate income through interest payments and fees on these privately negotiated loans, offering investors exposure to the private credit market.
- Floating-rate loan income rises with higher base rates
- Middle-market default rates pressure NAV and dividend coverage
- Private credit competition compresses underwriting spreads on new deals
| Net Income: 87.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.41 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.02% < 20% (prev 9.43%; Δ -3.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 219.9m > Net Income 87.9m |
| Net Debt (1.96b) to EBITDA (183.4m): 10.67 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (85.8m) vs 12m ago -2.98% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.35% > 18% (prev 59.60%; Δ 6.76% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.75% > 50% (prev 8.22%; Δ -0.47% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.15 > 6 (EBIT TTM 152.5m / Interest Expense TTM 132.6m) |
| A: 0.00 (Total Current Assets 96.7m - Total Current Liabilities 78.7m) / Total Assets 3.82b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -62.5m / Total Assets 3.82b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 152.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.87b) |
| D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 1.69b / Total Liabilities 2.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.07 = BB |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.42 with a total of 430,111 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.51%, over one month by +5.08%, over three months by +11.42% and over the past year by -7.98%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.60 (which is 5.3% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Morgan Stanley Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.17. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSDL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15.6 | 1.2% |
P/E Trailing = 15.099
P/E Forward = 8.1103
P/S = 3.3585
P/B = 0.7647
Revenue TTM = 299.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 152.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 183.4m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 2.05b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.96b USD (calculated: Debt 2.05b - CCE 96.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.25b USD (1.29b + Debt 2.05b - CCE 96.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.15 (Ebit TTM 152.5m / Interest Expense TTM 132.6m)
EV/FCF = 14.77x (Enterprise Value 3.25b / FCF TTM 219.9m)
FCF Yield = 6.77% (FCF TTM 219.9m / Enterprise Value 3.25b)
FCF Margin = 73.38% (FCF TTM 219.9m / Revenue TTM 299.7m)
Net Margin = 29.33% (Net Income TTM 87.9m / Revenue TTM 299.7m)
Gross Margin = 66.35% ((Revenue TTM 299.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 100.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 79.63% (prev 80.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 3.25b / Total Assets 3.82b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.46% (Interest Expense 132.6m / Debt 2.05b)
Taxrate = 3.41% (3.02m / 88.5m)
NOPAT = 147.3m (EBIT 152.5m * (1 - 3.41%))
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 96.7m / Total Current Liabilities 78.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.21 (Debt 2.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.69b)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.67 (Net Debt 1.96b / EBITDA 183.4m)
Debt / FCF = 8.90 (Net Debt 1.96b / FCF TTM 219.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.75b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.27% (Net Income 87.9m / Total Assets 3.82b)
RoE = 5.02% (Net Income TTM 87.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.75b)
RoCE = 4.07% (EBIT 152.5m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.82b - Current Liab 78.7m))
RoIC = 3.95% (NOPAT 147.3m / Invested Capital 3.73b)
WACC = 7.00% (E(1.29b)/V(3.35b) * Re(8.22%) + D(2.05b)/V(3.35b) * Rd(6.46%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 8.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -31.46 | Cagr: 2.03%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈219.9m ; Y1≈220.8m ; Y5≈233.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.84 (EV 3.64b - Net Debt 1.96b = Equity 1.68b / Shares 84.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 22.63 | Revenue CAGR: 3.40% | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=-1.28% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.64% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.83 | Chg30d=+0.25% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=-8.7% | GrowthRev=-9.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.83 | Chg30d=+1.32% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=-0.1% | GrowthRev=-1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=9, down=9)