(MSDL) Morgan Stanley Direct - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US61774A1034

Stock: Corporate Bonds, Middle-Market Debt, Acquisition Financing

Total Rating 29

Risk 68

Buy Signal -0.79

Asset Management » Diversified Financial Services
Age: 2y

Market Cap: 1,407m
Avg Trading Vol: 11.3M USD

ATR: 2.45%
Peers RS (IBD): 16.67

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -71.77%
EPS Trend: -88.8%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 20.77%
Rev. Trend: 60.1%

Last SUE: -1.13
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	11.32%
Yield on Cost 5y	12.00%
Yield CAGR 5y	-9.09%
Payout Consistency	97.0%
Payout Ratio	1.9%

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	33.1%
Relative Tail Risk	-8.75%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-1.04
Alpha	-29.21

Character TTM
Beta	0.571
Beta Downside	0.602

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	25.21%
CAGR/Max DD	-0.18

Description: MSDL Morgan Stanley Direct January 16, 2026

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (NYSE: MSDL) is a Business Development Company that primarily provides senior secured loans to middle-market companies and private-equity sponsors financing acquisitions, positioning itself in the higher-risk segment of the corporate bond market.

As of the latest filing, the fund manages roughly $1.2 billion in assets, targets a net asset-yield of 8-10 % and maintains an average portfolio duration of 4-5 years, reflecting sensitivity to the current 4-5 % U.S. Treasury curve. Its performance is closely tied to the health of the U.S. middle-market economy, with loan growth historically correlating to GDP expansion rates of 2-3 % and to private-equity deal flow, which has surged 15 % YoY in 2024.

For a deeper, data-driven look at how MSDL’s risk-adjusted returns compare to peers, you might explore the fund’s metrics on ValueRay.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5

Net Income: 145.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.85 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 7.22% < 20% (prev 14.24%; Δ -7.01% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 13.1m > Net Income 145.0m
Net Debt (-65.5m) to EBITDA (147.2m): -0.44 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.28 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (86.8m) vs 12m ago -2.71% < -2%
Gross Margin: 52.65% > 18% (prev 0.64%; Δ 5200 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 7.43% > 50% (prev 8.73%; Δ -1.30% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.08 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 147.2m / Interest Expense TTM 136.0m)

Altman Z'' 0.28

A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 95.4m - Total Current Liabilities 74.6m) / Total Assets 3.93b
B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -7.91m / Total Assets 3.93b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 147.2m / Avg Total Assets 3.86b)
D: -0.00 (Book Value of Equity -7.82m / Total Liabilities 2.16b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.28 = B

What is the price of MSDL shares?

As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.18 with a total of 1,332,019 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.30%, over one month by -9.37%, over three months by -5.89% and over the past year by -18.28%.

Is MSDL a buy, sell or hold?

Morgan Stanley Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.17. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MSDL.

StrongBuy: 0
Buy: 1
Hold: 5
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MSDL price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	17.5	15.5%
Analysts Target Price	17.5	15.5%
ValueRay Target Price	16.5	8.5%

MSDL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026

P/E Trailing = 9.8182
P/E Forward = 8.547
P/S = 9.4109
P/B = 0.7943
Revenue TTM = 287.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 147.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 147.2m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.97b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -65.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.31b USD (1.41b + Debt 1.97b - CCE 65.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.08 (Ebit TTM 147.2m / Interest Expense TTM 136.0m)
EV/FCF = 252.4x (Enterprise Value 3.31b / FCF TTM 13.1m)
FCF Yield = 0.40% (FCF TTM 13.1m / Enterprise Value 3.31b)
FCF Margin = 4.57% (FCF TTM 13.1m / Revenue TTM 287.2m)
Net Margin = 50.49% (Net Income TTM 145.0m / Revenue TTM 287.2m)
Gross Margin = 52.65% ((Revenue TTM 287.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 136.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.59% (prev 52.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 3.31b / Total Assets 3.93b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.72% (Interest Expense 33.9m / Debt 1.97b)
Taxrate = 1.44% (402.0k / 28.0m)
NOPAT = 145.1m (EBIT 147.2m * (1 - 1.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.28 (Total Current Assets 95.4m / Total Current Liabilities 74.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.11 (Debt 1.97b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.44 (Net Debt -65.5m / EBITDA 147.2m)
Debt / FCF = -4.99 (Net Debt -65.5m / FCF TTM 13.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.81b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.75% (Net Income 145.0m / Total Assets 3.93b)
RoE = 8.03% (Net Income TTM 145.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.81b)
RoCE = 3.82% (EBIT 147.2m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.93b - Current Liab 74.6m))
RoIC = 3.79% (NOPAT 145.1m / Invested Capital 3.83b)
WACC = 4.33% (E(1.41b)/V(3.38b) * Re(8.02%) + D(1.97b)/V(3.38b) * Rd(1.72%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 8.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 2.92%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈41.1m ; Y1≈26.9m ; Y5≈12.3m
Fair Price DCF = 5.27 (EV 391.8m - Net Debt -65.5m = Equity 457.3m / Shares 86.8m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -88.79 | EPS CAGR: -71.77% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 60.08 | Revenue CAGR: 20.77% | SUE: -1.13 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-8.2% | Growth Revenue=-7.7%

Additional Sources for MSDL Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle