(MSDL) Morgan Stanley Direct - Overview
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Asset Management | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 1.260m USD | Total Return: -12.7% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 9.67M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 22.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) is a Business Development Company (BDC) primarily focused on providing financing solutions to middle-market companies. The fund specializes in senior secured loans and riskier debt instruments, often used by private equity firms to facilitate leveraged buyouts or corporate acquisitions.
The BDC model is structured to provide retail investors access to private credit markets, which are typically reserved for institutional investors. By law, BDCs must distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders annually, resulting in a business model centered on yield generation through interest income.
Middle-market lending has grown significantly as traditional banks have reduced their exposure to non-investment grade corporate debt due to stricter regulatory capital requirements. Investors seeking deeper insights into these credit metrics should consult ValueRay for further analysis. This shift has allowed non-bank lenders like MSDL to capture a larger share of the direct lending market.
- Floating rate debt portfolio benefits from sustained high interest rate environment
- Middle-market credit quality determines net asset value and dividend coverage stability
- Private equity sponsor relationships drive proprietary deal flow and deployment volume
- Management fee structure and operating leverage impact net investment income margins
- Financial covenant compliance within the portfolio mitigates potential credit loss realization
| Net Income: 87.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 44.97% < 20% (prev 9.43%; Δ 35.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 165.0m > Net Income 87.9m |
| Net Debt (1.97b) to EBITDA (183.4m): 10.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities) |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (85.8m) vs 12m ago -2.98% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.35% > 18% (prev 0.60%; Δ 6.58k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.75% > 50% (prev 8.22%; Δ -0.47% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.15 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 183.4m / Interest Expense TTM 132.6m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 134.8m - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 3.82b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -62.5m / Total Assets 3.82b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 152.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.87b) |
| D: -0.03 (Book Value of Equity -62.4m / Total Liabilities 2.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.41 = B |
As of May 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.20 with a total of 710,476 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.98%,
over one month by +0.67%,
over three months by +1.68% and
over the past year by -12.74%.
Morgan Stanley Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.17. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSDL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15.6 | 2.7% |
P/E Forward = 8.1235
P/S = 3.2748
P/B = 0.7456
Revenue TTM = 299.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 152.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 183.4m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 2.05b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.97b USD (calculated: Debt 2.05b - CCE 80.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.23b USD (1.26b + Debt 2.05b - CCE 80.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.15 (Ebit TTM 152.5m / Interest Expense TTM 132.6m)
EV/FCF = 19.59x (Enterprise Value 3.23b / FCF TTM 165.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.10% (FCF TTM 165.0m / Enterprise Value 3.23b)
FCF Margin = 55.07% (FCF TTM 165.0m / Revenue TTM 299.7m)
Net Margin = 29.33% (Net Income TTM 87.9m / Revenue TTM 299.7m)
Gross Margin = 66.35% ((Revenue TTM 299.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 100.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 79.63% (prev 80.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 3.23b / Total Assets 3.82b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.46% (Interest Expense 132.6m / Debt 2.05b)
Taxrate = 2.30% (2.81m / 122.1m)
NOPAT = 149.0m (EBIT 152.5m * (1 - 2.30%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 134.8m / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
Debt / Equity = 1.21 (Debt 2.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.69b)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.75 (Net Debt 1.97b / EBITDA 183.4m)
Debt / FCF = 11.95 (Net Debt 1.97b / FCF TTM 165.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.75b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.27% (Net Income 87.9m / Total Assets 3.82b)
RoE = 4.85% (Net Income TTM 87.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.81b)
RoCE = 3.99% (EBIT 152.5m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.82b - Current Liab 0.0))
RoIC = 4.07% (EBIT 152.5m / (Assets 3.82b - Curr.Liab 0.0 - Cash 80.7m))
WACC = 7.08% (E(1.26b)/V(3.31b) * Re(8.33%) + D(2.05b)/V(3.31b) * Rd(6.46%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 8.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -31.46 | Cagr: 2.03%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈165.0m ; Y1≈165.7m ; Y5≈175.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.94 (EV 2.73b - Net Debt 1.97b = Equity 757.9m / Shares 84.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 22.63 | Revenue CAGR: 3.40% | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=-1.48% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.66% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.83 | Chg30d=+0.10% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-9.1% | GrowthRev=-9.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.82 | Chg30d=+0.97% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-0.6% | GrowthRev=-1.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25%