MSGE Stock Analysis: Madison Square Garden | NYSE

Concerts, Theaters, Sports Events, Rockettes

Total Rating 55

Safety 69

Buy Signal 0.11

Entertainment
Industry Rotation: -1.0

Market Cap: 3.87B
Avg Turnover: 34.5M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility31.6%

VaR 5^th Pctl5.27%

VaR vs Median1.10%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.84

Rel. Str. IBD87.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group70.7

Character TTM

Beta0.686

Beta Downside0.683

Hurst Exponent0.365

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD33.94%

CAGR/Max DD1.04

CAGR/Mean DD4.21

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -9.00%
EPS Trend: -18.3%

Last SUE: 0.39
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 6.22%
Rev. Trend: 90.8%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Fakeout

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 3.4 years of data

Jan +4.2% 32

Feb -4.6% 34

Mar -8.1% 31

Apr +1.9% 13

May -2.2% 12

Jun +5.9% 17

Jul -4.1% 12

Aug +4.6% 14

Sep +5.9% 0

Oct -2.0% 29

Nov -1.2% 0

Dec -0.1% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MSGE Madison Square Garden

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) operates a live entertainment business, producing, presenting, and hosting concerts, sporting events, family shows, performing arts, and special events. The company is unusual within the Movies & Entertainment sub-industry in that its core assets are physical venues rather than filmed content, generating revenue primarily through ticket sales, suite and premium seating, concessions, sponsorships, and venue rentals rather than distribution royalties or box office receipts.

MSGE holds a portfolio of iconic venues, including Madison Square Garden, The Theater at Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon Theatre, and The Chicago Theatre. These venues are concentrated in major U.S. media markets, which supports strong pricing power on tickets and sponsorships. In addition to running these facilities, the company owns and produces the Christmas Spectacular Starring the Radio City Rockettes, a long-running seasonal production that contributes a meaningful share of annual revenue and is typically associated with very high operating margins during the holiday period.

The company also operates an entertainment and sports bookings business that books concerts, family shows, special events, and sporting events across its venue portfolio and through third-party arrangements. Originally incorporated in 2022 as MSGE Spinco, Inc. following its spin-off from its prior parent, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. is headquartered in New York, New York, and trades on the NYSE as a mid-cap stock in the Communication Services sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Live event bookings and concert revenue recovery at MSG venues
Christmas Spectacular ticket sales drive holiday quarter performance
Sphere Entertainment spin-off refocuses capital allocation on core venue portfolio

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5

Net Income: -13.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.72 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 13.54% < 20% (prev 7.26%; Δ 6.28% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 470.6m > Net Income -13.4m
Net Debt (965.8m) to EBITDA (130.1m): 7.42 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.22 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (48.0m) vs 12m ago 0.82% < -2%
Gross Margin: 45.11% > 18% (prev 45.64%; Δ -0.53% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 25.76% > 50% (prev 22.45%; Δ 3.31% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM -102.7m / Interest Expense TTM 38.3m)

Altman Z'' 1.18

A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 784.0m - Total Current Liabilities 640.4m) / Total Assets 4.04b
B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -220.3m / Total Assets 4.04b)
C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -102.7m / Avg Total Assets 4.12b)
D: 1.23 (Book Value of Equity 2.23b / Total Liabilities 1.81b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.18 = BB

Beneish M -3.39

DSRI: 1.60 (Receivables 161.1m/89.3m, Revenue 1.06b/942.7m)
GMI: 1.01 (GM 45.64% / 45.11%)
AQI: -0.60 (AQ_t -0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.16)
SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 1.06b / 942.7m)
TATA: -0.12 (NI -13.4m - CFO 470.6m) / TA 4.04b)
Beneish M = -3.39 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of MSGE shares?

As of October 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 80.11 with a total of 446,515 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.06%, over one month by +3.11%, over three months by -0.96% and over the past year by +77.08%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 74.10 (which is 7.5% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).

Is MSGE a buy, sell or hold?

Madison Square Garden has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MSGE.

StrongBuy: 6
Buy: 1
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MSGE price?

Analysts Target Price	91.6	14.4%

Madison Square Garden (MSGE) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 3.87b (3.87b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 57.5845
P/E Forward = 26.8817
P/S = 3.6465
P/B = 81.1032
Revenue TTM = 1.06b USD
EBIT TTM = -102.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 130.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 540.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 72.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.52b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 604.6m
Net Debt = 965.8m USD (calculated: Debt 1.52b - CCE 552.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.83b USD (3.87b + Debt 1.52b - CCE 552.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.68 (Ebit TTM -102.7m / Interest Expense TTM 38.3m)
EV/FCF = 10.95x (Enterprise Value 4.83b / FCF TTM 441.3m)
FCF Yield = 9.13% (FCF TTM 441.3m / Enterprise Value 4.83b)
FCF Margin = 41.60% (FCF TTM 441.3m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Net Margin = -1.26% (Net Income TTM -13.4m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Gross Margin = 45.11% ((Revenue TTM 1.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 582.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.63% (prev 40.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 4.83b / Total Assets 4.04b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.53% (Interest Expense 38.3m / Debt 1.52b)
Taxrate = 38.13% (40.8m / 107.0m)
NOPAT = -63.5m (EBIT -102.7m * (1 - 38.13%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.22 (Total Current Assets 784.0m / Total Current Liabilities 640.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.68 (Debt 1.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.23b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.42 (Net Debt 965.8m / EBITDA 130.1m)
Debt / FCF = 2.19 (Net Debt 965.8m / FCF TTM 441.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.32% (Net Income -13.4m / Total Assets 4.04b)
RoE = -1.20% (Net Income TTM -13.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.11b)
RoCE = -6.22% (EBIT -102.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.11b + L.T.Debt 540.3m))
RoIC = -1.86% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -63.5m / Invested Capital 3.41b)
WACC = 6.47% (E(3.87b)/V(5.39b) * Re(8.39%) + D(1.52b)/V(5.39b) * Rd(2.53%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 8.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -35.26 | Cagr: -0.41%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈302.0m ; Y1≈346.2m ; Y5≈509.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 165.7 (EV 7.67b - Net Debt 965.8m = Equity 6.70b / Shares 40.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -18.31 | EPS CAGR: -9.00% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.22% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=+129.09% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=2.51 | Chg30d=-11.93% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2027-06-30): EPS=2.76 | Chg30d=+9.31% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+54.0% | GrowthRev=+6.1%
EPS next Year (2028-06-30): EPS=2.90 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+5.2% | GrowthRev=+4.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=2, down=1)