MSIF Stock Analysis: MSC Income Fund | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 533m USD | 12M Return: -22.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.35M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.8%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MSC Income Fund, Inc. (MSIF) is a Business Development Company (BDC) that focuses on providing debt and debt-and-equity financing to lower middle market companies in the United States. The fund targets management buyouts, recapitalizations, growth financings, refinancings, and acquisitions, generally investing in companies generating between $10 million and $150 million in revenue. Listed on the NYSE as a small-cap stock in the Financials sector, MSIF falls within the Asset Management & Custody Banks sub-industry.
As a BDC, MSC Income Fund operates under a regulated structure designed to channel capital to small and mid-sized private businesses that often lack access to traditional bank or public market financing. This structure typically allows the fund to offer flexible financing solutions-such as first-lien loans, second-lien debt, and mezzanine capital-to support companies through various stages of growth and ownership transitions.
- Fed rate cuts compress floating-rate portfolio yields
- Middle market credit losses pressure NAV and dividends
- Lower middle market deal flow expands investment pipeline
| Net Income: 86.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.58 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -12.12% < 20% (prev 29.25%; Δ -41.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -16.2m > Net Income 86.1m |
| Net Debt (633.5m) to EBITDA (38.2m): 16.57 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (46.1m) vs 12m ago 3.22% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 73.35% > 18% (prev 58.42%; Δ 14.92% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.40% > 50% (prev 7.10%; Δ 2.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM 107.9m / Interest Expense TTM 34.6m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 15.6m - Total Current Liabilities 31.1m) / Total Assets 1.41b |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -46.5m / Total Assets 1.41b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 107.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.37b) |
| D: 1.04 (Book Value of Equity 719.5m / Total Liabilities 690.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.45 = BB |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.55 with a total of 210,730 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.60%, over one month by -0.44%, over three months by -5.13% and over the past year by -22.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.10 (which is 3.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
MSC Income Fund has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSIF.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.4 | 24.9% |
P/E Trailing = 6.3913
P/E Forward = 8.2237
P/S = 3.8086
P/B = 0.7411
Revenue TTM = 128.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 107.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 38.2m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 649.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 633.5m USD (calculated: Debt 649.1m - CCE 15.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.17b USD (533.3m + Debt 649.1m - CCE 15.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.12 (Ebit TTM 107.9m / Interest Expense TTM 34.6m)
EV/FCF = -71.83x (Enterprise Value 1.17b / FCF TTM -16.2m)
FCF Yield = -1.39% (FCF TTM -16.2m / Enterprise Value 1.17b)
FCF Margin = -12.64% (FCF TTM -16.2m / Revenue TTM 128.5m)
Net Margin = 66.99% (Net Income TTM 86.1m / Revenue TTM 128.5m)
Gross Margin = 73.35% ((Revenue TTM 128.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 34.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.83% (prev 79.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 1.17b / Total Assets 1.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.33% (Interest Expense 34.6m / Debt 649.1m)
Taxrate = 4.67% (4.21m / 90.3m)
NOPAT = 102.9m (EBIT 107.9m * (1 - 4.67%))
Current Ratio = 0.50 (Total Current Assets 15.6m / Total Current Liabilities 31.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.90 (Debt 649.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 719.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 16.57 (Net Debt 633.5m / EBITDA 38.2m)
Debt / FCF = -39.00 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 633.5m / FCF TTM -16.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 728.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.30% (Net Income 86.1m / Total Assets 1.41b)
RoE = 11.81% (Net Income TTM 86.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 728.8m)
RoCE = 7.83% (EBIT 107.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.41b - Current Liab 31.1m))
RoIC = 7.50% (NOPAT 102.9m / Invested Capital 1.37b)
WACC = 11.38% (E(533.3m)/V(1.18b) * Re(19.05%) + D(649.1m)/V(1.18b) * Rd(5.33%) * (1-Tc(0.05)))
Discount Rate = 19.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 73.33 | Cagr: 6.37%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -16.2m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.61 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.83 | Revenue CAGR: 27.18% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=-0.25% | Revisions=-22% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=-0.19% | Revisions=-22% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.44 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+7.9% | GrowthRev=+5.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.48 | Chg30d=-0.59% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+3.3% | GrowthRev=+8.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=6, down=16)