MSIF Stock Analysis: MSC Income Fund | NYSE

Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 533m USD | 12M Return: -22.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Middle Market Lending, Debt Financing, Equity Financing, Business Credit
Total Rating 21
Safety 50
Buy Signal -1.09
Asset Management
Industry Rotation: +0.7
Market Cap: 533M
Avg Turnover: 3.35M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility31.9%
VaR 5th Pctl5.33%
VaR vs Median1.32%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Rel. Str. IBD13.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group25.5
Character TTM
Beta3.716
Beta Downside-0.216
Hurst Exponent0.478
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD30.63%
CAGR/Max DD3.42
CAGR/Mean DD6.29
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MSIF over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": null, "2021-09": null, "2021-12": null, "2022-03": null, "2022-06": null, "2022-09": null, "2022-12": null, "2023-03": null, "2023-06": null, "2023-09": null, "2023-12": null, "2024-03": null, "2024-06": null, "2024-09": null, "2024-12": 0.35, "2025-03": 0.38, "2025-06": 0.35, "2025-09": 0.35, "2025-12": 0.28, "2026-03": 0.34,
Last SUE: -0.61
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MSIF over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 24.683, 2021-09: 18.189, 2021-12: 23.104, 2022-03: 17.866, 2022-06: 3.708, 2022-09: 17.079, 2022-12: 13.086, 2023-03: 14.43, 2023-06: 22.76, 2023-09: 14.615, 2023-12: 23.036, 2024-03: 12.719, 2024-06: 22.17, 2024-09: 21.626, 2024-12: 26.139, 2025-03: 23.949, 2025-06: 28.18, 2025-09: 25.513, 2025-12: 40.945, 2026-03: 33.846,
Rev. CAGR: 27.18%
Rev. Trend: 96.8%
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 1.4 years of data

Jan +3.0% -
Feb -3.1% -
Mar +5.7% -
Apr +7.1% -
May -1.6% -
Jun -1.6% -
Jul - -
Aug - -
Sep - -
Oct - -
Nov - -
Dec - -

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MSIF MSC Income Fund

MSC Income Fund, Inc. (MSIF) is a Business Development Company (BDC) that focuses on providing debt and debt-and-equity financing to lower middle market companies in the United States. The fund targets management buyouts, recapitalizations, growth financings, refinancings, and acquisitions, generally investing in companies generating between $10 million and $150 million in revenue. Listed on the NYSE as a small-cap stock in the Financials sector, MSIF falls within the Asset Management & Custody Banks sub-industry.

As a BDC, MSC Income Fund operates under a regulated structure designed to channel capital to small and mid-sized private businesses that often lack access to traditional bank or public market financing. This structure typically allows the fund to offer flexible financing solutions-such as first-lien loans, second-lien debt, and mezzanine capital-to support companies through various stages of growth and ownership transitions.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Fed rate cuts compress floating-rate portfolio yields
  • Middle market credit losses pressure NAV and dividends
  • Lower middle market deal flow expands investment pipeline
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 86.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.58 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -12.12% < 20% (prev 29.25%; Δ -41.37% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -16.2m > Net Income 86.1m
Net Debt (633.5m) to EBITDA (38.2m): 16.57 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.50 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (46.1m) vs 12m ago 3.22% < -2%
Gross Margin: 73.35% > 18% (prev 58.42%; Δ 14.92% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 9.40% > 50% (prev 7.10%; Δ 2.31% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM 107.9m / Interest Expense TTM 34.6m)
Altman Z'' 1.45
A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 15.6m - Total Current Liabilities 31.1m) / Total Assets 1.41b
B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -46.5m / Total Assets 1.41b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 107.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.37b)
D: 1.04 (Book Value of Equity 719.5m / Total Liabilities 690.4m)
Altman-Z'' = 1.45 = BB
What is the price of MSIF shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.55 with a total of 210,730 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.60%, over one month by -0.44%, over three months by -5.13% and over the past year by -22.73%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.10 (which is 3.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is MSIF a buy, sell or hold?

MSC Income Fund has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSIF.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MSIF price?
Analysts Target Price 14.4 24.9%
MSC Income Fund (MSIF) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 03 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 533.3m (533.3m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 6.3913
P/E Forward = 8.2237
P/S = 3.8086
P/B = 0.7411
Revenue TTM = 128.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 107.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 38.2m USD
 Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = 649.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 633.5m USD (calculated: Debt 649.1m - CCE 15.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.17b USD (533.3m + Debt 649.1m - CCE 15.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.12 (Ebit TTM 107.9m / Interest Expense TTM 34.6m)
EV/FCF = -71.83x (Enterprise Value 1.17b / FCF TTM -16.2m)
FCF Yield = -1.39% (FCF TTM -16.2m / Enterprise Value 1.17b)
FCF Margin = -12.64% (FCF TTM -16.2m / Revenue TTM 128.5m)
Net Margin = 66.99% (Net Income TTM 86.1m / Revenue TTM 128.5m)
Gross Margin = 73.35% ((Revenue TTM 128.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 34.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.83% (prev 79.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 1.17b / Total Assets 1.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.33% (Interest Expense 34.6m / Debt 649.1m)
Taxrate = 4.67% (4.21m / 90.3m)
NOPAT = 102.9m (EBIT 107.9m * (1 - 4.67%))
Current Ratio = 0.50 (Total Current Assets 15.6m / Total Current Liabilities 31.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.90 (Debt 649.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 719.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 16.57 (Net Debt 633.5m / EBITDA 38.2m)
 Debt / FCF = -39.00 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 633.5m / FCF TTM -16.2m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 728.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.30% (Net Income 86.1m / Total Assets 1.41b)
RoE = 11.81% (Net Income TTM 86.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 728.8m)
RoCE = 7.83% (EBIT 107.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.41b - Current Liab 31.1m))
RoIC = 7.50% (NOPAT 102.9m / Invested Capital 1.37b)
WACC = 11.38% (E(533.3m)/V(1.18b) * Re(19.05%) + D(649.1m)/V(1.18b) * Rd(5.33%) * (1-Tc(0.05)))
Discount Rate = 19.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 73.33 | Cagr: 6.37%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -16.2m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.61 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.83 | Revenue CAGR: 27.18% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=-0.25% | Revisions=-22% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=-0.19% | Revisions=-22% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.44 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+7.9% | GrowthRev=+5.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.48 | Chg30d=-0.59% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+3.3% | GrowthRev=+8.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=6, down=16)