Overview Dividends

(MSM) MSC Industrial Direct - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US5535301064

Cutting Tools, Fasteners, Raw Materials, Machinery Accessories, Safety Supplies

Trading Companies & Distributors
Market Cap in USD: 4,863m

IPO / Inception: 1995-12-20
Return 12m vs S&P 500: 4.06%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -47.44%
EPS Trend: -75.4%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 3.86%
Rev. Trend: 19.4%

Last SUE: 0.79
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	4.98%
Yield on Cost 5y	6.34%
Yield CAGR 5y	3.64%
Payout Consistency	87.5%
Payout Ratio	91.7%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	25.6%
Value at Risk 5%th	39.4%
Relative Tail Risk	-6.43%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.65
Alpha	4.43
CAGR/Max DD	0.20

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.295
Beta	0.811
Beta Downside	0.665

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	29.30%
Mean DD	10.60%
Median DD	9.50%

Description: MSM MSC Industrial Direct November 05, 2025

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) is a North-American distributor of metalworking and MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) products, serving machine shops, manufacturers, and government agencies through a mix of catalog, e-commerce, and extensive physical inventory networks across the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the U.K., and other international markets.

The product portfolio spans cutting tools, abrasives, machining fluids, measuring instruments, fasteners, raw materials, power tools, safety supplies, and related accessories, complemented by value-added services such as inventory-management solutions and multi-modal fulfillment centers.

In FY 2023 MSC reported revenue of roughly **$4.3 billion** with an adjusted EBITDA margin of **~7 %**, while e-commerce sales grew **≈12 % YoY**, reflecting the broader shift toward digital procurement in the industrial supply chain.

Key economic drivers for MSC include the U.S. Manufacturing PMI (currently hovering around 48-50, indicating near-steady production), capital-expenditure cycles in the automotive and aerospace sectors, and macro-level trends in labor shortages that increase reliance on third-party MRO providers.

Given MSC’s position in the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry, its performance is closely tied to the health of the broader industrial sector and to supply-chain resilience; a sustained uptick in U.S. factory orders could materially boost order volumes, while prolonged logistics bottlenecks may pressure inventory costs.

For a deeper, data-driven assessment of MSM’s valuation dynamics, you may find a focused analysis on ValueRay worth exploring.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5

Net Income (199.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 226.2m TTM)

FCFTA 0.10 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.86pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 13.19% (prev 15.25%; Δ -2.06pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 333.7m > Net Income 199.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (482.6m) to EBITDA (377.8m) ratio: 1.28 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.68 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (55.9m) change vs 12m ago -0.98% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 40.75% (prev 41.15%; Δ -0.40pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 153.1% (prev 155.2%; Δ -2.08pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 11.95 (EBITDA TTM 377.8m / Interest Expense TTM 24.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.09

(A) 0.20 = (Total Current Assets 1.23b - Total Current Liabilities 729.3m) / Total Assets 2.46b

(B) 0.18 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 432.6m / Total Assets 2.46b

(D) 0.39 = Book Value of Equity 411.9m / Total Liabilities 1.07b

Total Rating: 3.09 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 60.83

1. Piotroski 5.50pt

2. FCF Yield 4.51%

3. FCF Margin 6.39%

4. Debt/Equity 0.39

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.28

6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.05)%

7. RoE 14.53%

8. Rev. Trend 19.42%

9. EPS Trend -75.36%

What is the price of MSM shares?

As of December 31, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 86.19 with a total of 407,494 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.93%, over one month by +0.03%, over three months by -4.18% and over the past year by +22.97%.

Is MSM a buy, sell or hold?

MSC Industrial Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.27. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MSM.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 1
Hold: 9
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MSM price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	87.5	1.5%
Analysts Target Price	87.5	1.5%
ValueRay Target Price	96.1	11.5%

MSM Fundamental Data Overview December 24, 2025

Market Cap USD = 4.86b (4.86b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 24.2111
P/E Forward = 20.0803
P/S = 1.29
P/B = 3.4716
P/EG = 2.1371
Beta = 0.836
Revenue TTM = 3.77b USD
EBIT TTM = 287.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 377.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 168.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 339.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 538.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 482.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.35b USD (4.86b + Debt 538.8m - CCE 56.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.95 (Ebit TTM 287.6m / Interest Expense TTM 24.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.51% (FCF TTM 240.9m / Enterprise Value 5.35b)
FCF Margin = 6.39% (FCF TTM 240.9m / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Net Margin = 5.29% (Net Income TTM 199.3m / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Gross Margin = 40.75% ((Revenue TTM 3.77b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.38% (prev 40.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.17 (Enterprise Value 5.35b / Total Assets 2.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.06% (Interest Expense 5.73m / Debt 538.8m)
Taxrate = 26.28% (20.0m / 76.1m)
NOPAT = 212.0m (EBIT 287.6m * (1 - 26.28%))
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 1.23b / Total Current Liabilities 729.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 538.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.28 (Net Debt 482.6m / EBITDA 377.8m)
Debt / FCF = 2.00 (Net Debt 482.6m / FCF TTM 240.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.37b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.10% (Net Income 199.3m / Total Assets 2.46b)
RoE = 14.53% (Net Income TTM 199.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.37b)
RoCE = 18.67% (EBIT 287.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.37b + L.T.Debt 168.8m))
RoIC = 11.23% (NOPAT 212.0m / Invested Capital 1.89b)
WACC = 8.18% (E(4.86b)/V(5.40b) * Re(9.0%) + D(538.8m)/V(5.40b) * Rd(1.06%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.74%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.16% ; FCFE base≈269.0m ; Y1≈231.1m ; Y5≈180.9m
Fair Price DCF = 50.14 (DCF Value 2.80b / Shares Outstanding 55.8m; 5y FCF grow -17.16% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -75.36 | EPS CAGR: -47.44% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 19.42 | Revenue CAGR: 3.86% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-02-28): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+0.011 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-08-31): EPS=4.25 | Chg30d=-0.021 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+13.0% | Growth Revenue=+5.1%
EPS next Year (2027-08-31): EPS=4.82 | Chg30d=-0.054 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+13.4% | Growth Revenue=+5.0%

Additional Sources for MSM Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle