MSM Stock Analysis: MSC Industrial Direct | NYSE
Industrial Distribution | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.200m USD | 12M Return: 51.7% | US5535301064 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 97.8M
EPS Trend: -86.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -61.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE: MSM) is a U.S.-headquartered distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) supplies, operating across the United States, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and other international markets. The company sells a broad catalog of products - including cutting tools, abrasives, fasteners, measuring instruments, hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing and electrical components, and power transmission parts - to individual machine shops, manufacturers, and government agencies. Distribution is conducted through a multichannel model combining print catalogs, e-commerce, inventory management solutions, customer care centers, customer fulfillment centers, and regional inventory hubs, with the company founded in 1941 and headquartered in Melville, New York.
As a member of the Industrials sector within the GICS Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry, MSC operates a high-touch, catalog-driven distribution model that competes in a fragmented MRO supply landscape alongside peers such as Grainger and Fastenal. Its business relies on a high-SKU product assortment, regional warehouse networks for rapid delivery to production environments, and value-added services like vending and inventory management that help customers reduce downtime and procurement costs.
- Manufacturing activity slowdown pressures MRO product demand
- Average daily sales growth slows amid weakening industrial production
- Pricing actions and cost controls support margin expansion
- Metalworking segment growth lags as machine shop customers reduce orders
- Capital allocation through dividends and share buybacks remains consistent
| Net Income: 230.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.83 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.56% < 20% (prev 15.83%; Δ -4.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 305.8m > Net Income 230.5m |
| Net Debt (530.5m) to EBITDA (431.8m): 1.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (56.0m) vs 12m ago 0.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.82% > 18% (prev 40.90%; Δ -0.08% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 157.3% > 50% (prev 151.2%; Δ 6.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM 332.5m / Interest Expense TTM 22.1m) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 1.28b - Total Current Liabilities 824.7m) / Total Assets 2.50b |
| B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 451.4m / Total Assets 2.50b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 332.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.49b) |
| D: 1.32 (Book Value of Equity 1.42b / Total Liabilities 1.08b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.06 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 413.3m/410.6m, Revenue 3.91b/3.74b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 40.90% / 40.82%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.34) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 3.91b / 3.74b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 230.5m - CFO 305.8m) / TA 2.50b) |
| Beneish M = -3.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 129.51 with a total of 534,864 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.47%, over one month by +8.44%, over three months by +7.33% and over the past year by +51.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 125.60 (which is 3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
MSC Industrial Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.40. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSM.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 131 | 1.2% |
P/E Trailing = 31.1401
P/E Forward = 23.5294
P/S = 1.737
P/B = 4.7752
P/EG = 2.4759
Revenue TTM = 3.91b USD
EBIT TTM = 332.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 431.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 89.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 439.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 604.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 49.2m
Net Debt = 530.5m USD (calculated: Debt 604.6m - CCE 74.1m)
Enterprise Value = 7.73b USD (7.20b + Debt 604.6m - CCE 74.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.04 (Ebit TTM 332.5m / Interest Expense TTM 22.1m)
EV/FCF = 35.15x (Enterprise Value 7.73b / FCF TTM 219.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.85% (FCF TTM 219.9m / Enterprise Value 7.73b)
FCF Margin = 5.63% (FCF TTM 219.9m / Revenue TTM 3.91b)
Net Margin = 5.90% (Net Income TTM 230.5m / Revenue TTM 3.91b)
Gross Margin = 40.82% ((Revenue TTM 3.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.11% (prev 41.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.10 (Enterprise Value 7.73b / Total Assets 2.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.66% (Interest Expense 22.1m / Debt 604.6m)
Taxrate = 24.95% (75.8m / 303.9m)
NOPAT = 249.6m (EBIT 332.5m * (1 - 24.95%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 1.28b / Total Current Liabilities 824.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 604.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.42b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.23 (Net Debt 530.5m / EBITDA 431.8m)
Debt / FCF = 2.41 (Net Debt 530.5m / FCF TTM 219.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.28% (Net Income 230.5m / Total Assets 2.50b)
RoE = 16.55% (Net Income TTM 230.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.39b)
RoCE = 22.43% (EBIT 332.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.39b + L.T.Debt 89.2m))
RoIC = 12.26% (NOPAT 249.6m / Invested Capital 2.04b)
WACC = 8.35% (E(7.20b)/V(7.80b) * Re(8.82%) + D(604.6m)/V(7.80b) * Rd(3.66%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -74.41 | Cagr: -0.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈237.4m ; Y1≈208.2m ; Y5≈168.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 38.84 (EV 2.70b - Net Debt 530.5m = Equity 2.17b / Shares 55.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -86.13 | EPS CAGR: -17.20% | SUE: 2.58 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -61.89 | Revenue CAGR: -1.71% | SUE: 1.15 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-11-30): EPS=1.21 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-08-31): EPS=4.60 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+22.4% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
EPS next Year (2027-08-31): EPS=5.45 | Chg30d=+0.02% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+18.3% | GrowthRev=+6.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +77% (up=18, down=1)