Overview Dividends

(MSM) MSC Industrial Direct - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US5535301064

Cutting Tools, Fasteners, Raw Materials, Machinery Accessories, Safety Supplies

MSM EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -10.53%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -77.0%

MSM Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 0.77%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): -38.0%

Description: MSM MSC Industrial Direct November 05, 2025

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) is a North-American distributor of metalworking and MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) products, serving machine shops, manufacturers, and government agencies through a mix of catalog, e-commerce, and extensive physical inventory networks across the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the U.K., and other international markets.

The product portfolio spans cutting tools, abrasives, machining fluids, measuring instruments, fasteners, raw materials, power tools, safety supplies, and related accessories, complemented by value-added services such as inventory-management solutions and multi-modal fulfillment centers.

In FY 2023 MSC reported revenue of roughly **$4.3 billion** with an adjusted EBITDA margin of **~7 %**, while e-commerce sales grew **≈12 % YoY**, reflecting the broader shift toward digital procurement in the industrial supply chain.

Key economic drivers for MSC include the U.S. Manufacturing PMI (currently hovering around 48-50, indicating near-steady production), capital-expenditure cycles in the automotive and aerospace sectors, and macro-level trends in labor shortages that increase reliance on third-party MRO providers.

Given MSC’s position in the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry, its performance is closely tied to the health of the broader industrial sector and to supply-chain resilience; a sustained uptick in U.S. factory orders could materially boost order volumes, while prolonged logistics bottlenecks may pressure inventory costs.

For a deeper, data-driven assessment of MSM’s valuation dynamics, you may find a focused analysis on ValueRay worth exploring.

MSM Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	4,821m
Sub-Industry	Trading Companies & Distributors
IPO / Inception	1995-12-20

MSM Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	45.7%
Fundamental	56.1%
Dividend Rating	36.8%
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-7.41%
Analyst Rating	3.27 of 5

MSM Dividends

Dividend Yield 12m	4.93%
Yield on Cost 5y	6.81%
Annual Growth 5y	-26.59%
Payout Consistency	87.5%
Payout Ratio	91.2%

MSM Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	-33.8%
Growth Correlation 12m	64.3%
Growth Correlation 5y	62.3%
CAGR 5y	5.75%
CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio)	0.20
CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio)	0.56
Sharpe Ratio 12m	-0.37
Alpha	-5.61
Beta	0.841
Volatility	24.05%
Current Volume	313.9k
Average Volume 20d	573k
Stop Loss	84 (-3.1%)
Signal	0.68

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5

Net Income (199.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 226.2m TTM)

FCFTA 0.10 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.86pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 13.19% (prev 15.25%; Δ -2.06pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 333.7m > Net Income 199.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (482.6m) to EBITDA (377.8m) ratio: 1.28 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.68 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (55.9m) change vs 12m ago -0.98% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 40.75% (prev 41.15%; Δ -0.40pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 153.1% (prev 155.2%; Δ -2.08pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 11.95 (EBITDA TTM 377.8m / Interest Expense TTM 24.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.09

(A) 0.20 = (Total Current Assets 1.23b - Total Current Liabilities 729.3m) / Total Assets 2.46b

(B) 0.18 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 432.6m / Total Assets 2.46b

(D) 0.39 = Book Value of Equity 411.9m / Total Liabilities 1.07b

Total Rating: 3.09 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.09

1. Piotroski 5.50pt = 0.50

2. FCF Yield 4.54% = 2.27

3. FCF Margin 6.39% = 1.60

4. Debt/Equity 0.39 = 2.43

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.28 = 1.34

6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.75)% = 3.44

7. RoE 14.53% = 1.21

8. Rev. Trend -37.97% = -2.85

9. EPS Trend -77.01% = -3.85

What is the price of MSM shares?

As of November 06, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 86.68 with a total of 313,852 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.93%, over one month by -5.88%, over three months by +0.66% and over the past year by +10.11%.

Is MSC Industrial Direct a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, MSC Industrial Direct is currently (November 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 56.09 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of MSM is around 83.82 USD . This means that MSM is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -3.3%.

Is MSM a buy, sell or hold?

MSC Industrial Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.27. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MSM.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 1
Hold: 9
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MSM price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	87.5	0.9%
Analysts Target Price	87.5	0.9%
ValueRay Target Price	93.4	7.8%

MSM Fundamental Data Overview November 06, 2025

Market Cap USD = 4.82b (4.82b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 23.7418
P/E Forward = 21.5054
P/S = 1.279
P/B = 3.7456
P/EG = 2.9845
Beta = 0.841
Revenue TTM = 3.77b USD
EBIT TTM = 287.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 377.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 285.0m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 339.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 538.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 482.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.30b USD (4.82b + Debt 538.8m - CCE 56.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.95 (Ebit TTM 287.6m / Interest Expense TTM 24.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.54% (FCF TTM 240.9m / Enterprise Value 5.30b)
FCF Margin = 6.39% (FCF TTM 240.9m / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Net Margin = 5.29% (Net Income TTM 199.3m / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Gross Margin = 40.75% ((Revenue TTM 3.77b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.38% (prev 40.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.15 (Enterprise Value 5.30b / Total Assets 2.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.06% (Interest Expense 5.73m / Debt 538.8m)
Taxrate = 26.28% (20.0m / 76.1m)
NOPAT = 212.0m (EBIT 287.6m * (1 - 26.28%))
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 1.23b / Total Current Liabilities 729.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 538.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.28 (Net Debt 482.6m / EBITDA 377.8m)
Debt / FCF = 2.00 (Net Debt 482.6m / FCF TTM 240.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.37b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.10% (Net Income 199.3m / Total Assets 2.46b)
RoE = 14.53% (Net Income TTM 199.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.37b)
RoCE = 17.36% (EBIT 287.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.37b + L.T.Debt 285.0m))
RoIC = 11.20% (NOPAT 212.0m / Invested Capital 1.89b)
WACC = 8.45% (E(4.82b)/V(5.36b) * Re(9.31%) + D(538.8m)/V(5.36b) * Rd(1.06%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.74%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.00% ; FCFE base≈269.0m ; Y1≈231.1m ; Y5≈180.9m
Fair Price DCF = 47.77 (DCF Value 2.67b / Shares Outstanding 55.8m; 5y FCF grow -17.16% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -77.01 | EPS CAGR: -10.53% | SUE: 1.32 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -37.97 | Revenue CAGR: 0.77% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for MSM Stock

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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle