MSM Stock Analysis: MSC Industrial Direct | NYSE
Industrial Distribution | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.016m USD | 12M Return: 52.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 104M
EPS Trend: -86.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -61.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE: MSM) is a U.S.-based industrial distributor specializing in metalworking products and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) supplies, operating across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. The company sells a broad assortment of items including cutting tools, abrasives, measuring instruments, fasteners, hand and power tools, safety supplies, and electrical components, serving individual machine shops, manufacturing firms, and government agencies. Distribution is carried out through catalogs, e-commerce platforms, inventory management solutions, and a network of customer fulfillment and regional inventory centers. Founded in 1941 and headquartered in Melville, New York, MSC went public in 1995 and is classified within the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry of the Industrials sector.
The MRO distribution business model is characterized by high SKU counts, low single-digit operating margins, and a heavy reliance on long-tail recurring orders from a fragmented customer base. Vendors in this space typically compete on logistics efficiency, technical sales support, and value-added services such as vending and integrated supply programs, rather than on price alone.
- U.S. manufacturing PMI weakness pressures metalworking volumes
- Pricing actions and supplier cost relief support gross margin recovery
- Customer count growth in metalworking segment drives revenue expansion
| Net Income: 230.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.83 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.56% < 20% (prev 15.83%; Δ -4.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 305.8m > Net Income 230.5m |
| Net Debt (530.5m) to EBITDA (432.0m): 1.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (56.0m) vs 12m ago 0.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.82% > 18% (prev 40.90%; Δ -0.08% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 157.3% > 50% (prev 151.2%; Δ 6.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM 332.5m / Interest Expense TTM 22.1m) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 1.28b - Total Current Liabilities 824.7m) / Total Assets 2.50b |
| B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 451.4m / Total Assets 2.50b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 332.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.49b) |
| D: 1.32 (Book Value of Equity 1.42b / Total Liabilities 1.08b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.06 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 413.3m/410.6m, Revenue 3.91b/3.74b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 40.90% / 40.82%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.34) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 3.91b / 3.74b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 230.5m - CFO 305.8m) / TA 2.50b) |
| Beneish M = -3.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 126.43 with a total of 549,466 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.87%, over one month by +8.47%, over three months by +31.13% and over the past year by +52.64%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 122.20 (which is 3.3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
MSC Industrial Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSM.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 129.9 | 2.7% |
P/E Trailing = 30.3454
P/E Forward = 23.9808
P/S = 1.795
P/B = 4.8669
P/EG = 2.5235
Revenue TTM = 3.91b USD
EBIT TTM = 332.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 432.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 89.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 439.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 604.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 49.2m
Net Debt = 530.5m USD (calculated: Debt 604.6m - CCE 74.1m)
Enterprise Value = 7.55b USD (7.02b + Debt 604.6m - CCE 74.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.04 (Ebit TTM 332.5m / Interest Expense TTM 22.1m)
EV/FCF = 34.31x (Enterprise Value 7.55b / FCF TTM 219.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.91% (FCF TTM 219.9m / Enterprise Value 7.55b)
FCF Margin = 5.63% (FCF TTM 219.9m / Revenue TTM 3.91b)
Net Margin = 5.90% (Net Income TTM 230.5m / Revenue TTM 3.91b)
Gross Margin = 40.82% ((Revenue TTM 3.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.11% (prev 41.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.02 (Enterprise Value 7.55b / Total Assets 2.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.66% (Interest Expense 22.1m / Debt 604.6m)
Taxrate = 24.95% (75.8m / 303.9m)
NOPAT = 249.6m (EBIT 332.5m * (1 - 24.95%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 1.28b / Total Current Liabilities 824.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 604.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.42b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.23 (Net Debt 530.5m / EBITDA 432.0m)
Debt / FCF = 2.41 (Net Debt 530.5m / FCF TTM 219.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.28% (Net Income 230.5m / Total Assets 2.50b)
RoE = 16.55% (Net Income TTM 230.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.39b)
RoCE = 22.43% (EBIT 332.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.39b + L.T.Debt 89.2m))
RoIC = 12.26% (NOPAT 249.6m / Invested Capital 2.04b)
WACC = 8.50% (E(7.02b)/V(7.62b) * Re(9.0%) + D(604.6m)/V(7.62b) * Rd(3.66%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -74.41 | Cagr: -0.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.52% ; FCFF base≈237.4m ; Y1≈208.2m ; Y5≈168.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 37.64 (EV 2.63b - Net Debt 530.5m = Equity 2.10b / Shares 55.8m; r=8.50% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -86.13 | EPS CAGR: -17.20% | SUE: 2.58 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -61.89 | Revenue CAGR: -1.71% | SUE: 1.15 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-11-30): EPS=1.21 | Chg30d=+8.16% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-08-31): EPS=4.60 | Chg30d=+6.32% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+22.4% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
EPS next Year (2027-08-31): EPS=5.45 | Chg30d=+10.02% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+18.3% | GrowthRev=+6.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +77% (up=18, down=1)