(MT) ArcelorMittal - Ratings and Ratios
Steel, Iron Ore, Coal, Tubes, Automotive
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.16% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.39% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 16.36% |
| Payout Consistency | 56.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 15.7% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 47.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.91% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.01 |
| Alpha | 87.43 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.58 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.410 |
| Beta | 1.198 |
| Beta Downside | 1.241 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 33.14% |
| Mean DD | 14.83% |
| Median DD | 15.25% |
Description: MT ArcelorMittal December 17, 2025
ArcelorMittal S.A. (NYSE: MT) is the world’s largest integrated steel and mining group, operating across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. It produces a full spectrum of steel-flat and long products, as well as seamless and welded pipes-and supplies raw mining inputs such as iron-ore pellets and coking coal to end-markets that include automotive, construction, energy, and machinery, using a centralized marketing network and regional distributors.
Key quantitative signals (FY 2023) that shape its outlook include: ① steel sales of ≈ 95 million tonnes, generating an EBITDA margin of roughly 12 % (down from 13 % in 2022) as higher energy costs compressed profitability; ② iron-ore production of ≈ 70 million tonnes, with Brazil and Canada accounting for > 60 % of output, making the firm vulnerable to commodity-price cycles and logistics bottlenecks; ③ exposure to carbon-pricing regimes-European Union ETS prices have risen to ≈ €80/t CO₂, pressuring cost structures and accelerating the company’s push toward low-carbon steel (e.g., the 2024 “Green Steel” pilot in Belgium). These drivers suggest that macro-economic trends in construction demand, global freight rates, and regulatory carbon costs will dominate near-term earnings variance.
For a data-rich, model-ready deep-dive into how these levers translate into valuation risk, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent, back-tested framework worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (2.58b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.67b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.31pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 14.82% (prev 15.70%; Δ -0.88pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 4.28b > Net Income 2.58b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (9.13b) to EBITDA (5.04b) ratio: 1.81 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.39 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (764.0m) change vs 12m ago -2.18% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 54.93% (prev -42.92%; Δ 97.85pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 63.66% (prev 66.85%; Δ -3.18pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.97 (EBITDA TTM 5.04b / Interest Expense TTM 564.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.68
| (A) 0.09 = (Total Current Assets 32.53b - Total Current Liabilities 23.48b) / Total Assets 98.77b |
| (B) 0.48 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 47.25b / Total Assets 98.77b |
| (C) 0.02 = EBIT TTM 2.24b / Avg Total Assets 95.97b |
| (D) 1.30 = Book Value of Equity 54.60b / Total Liabilities 42.09b |
| Total Rating: 3.68 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 37.62
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.13% |
| 3. FCF Margin 0.09% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.81 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.71)% |
| 7. RoE 4.94% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -85.54% |
| 9. EPS Trend -78.30% |
What is the price of MT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.00%, over one month by +8.58%, over three months by +22.38% and over the past year by +118.15%.
Is MT a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 42.9 | -9.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 42.9 | -9.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 53.3 | 12.7% |
MT Fundamental Data Overview January 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 13.4029
P/E Forward = 10.627
P/S = 0.5673
P/B = 0.6348
P/EG = 0.6602
Beta = 1.683
Revenue TTM = 61.09b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.24b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.04b USD
Long Term Debt = 10.49b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.38b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.87b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 9.13b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 43.80b USD (34.66b + Debt 14.87b - CCE 5.73b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.97 (Ebit TTM 2.24b / Interest Expense TTM 564.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.13% (FCF TTM 58.0m / Enterprise Value 43.80b)
FCF Margin = 0.09% (FCF TTM 58.0m / Revenue TTM 61.09b)
Net Margin = 4.23% (Net Income TTM 2.58b / Revenue TTM 61.09b)
Gross Margin = 54.93% ((Revenue TTM 61.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 27.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.79% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.44 (Enterprise Value 43.80b / Total Assets 98.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.56% (Interest Expense 84.0m / Debt 14.87b)
Taxrate = 20.99% (106.0m / 505.0m)
NOPAT = 1.77b (EBIT 2.24b * (1 - 20.99%))
Current Ratio = 1.39 (Total Current Assets 32.53b / Total Current Liabilities 23.48b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 14.87b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 54.60b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.81 (Net Debt 9.13b / EBITDA 5.04b)
Debt / FCF = 157.5 (Net Debt 9.13b / FCF TTM 58.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 52.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.62% (Net Income 2.58b / Total Assets 98.77b)
RoE = 4.94% (Net Income TTM 2.58b / Total Stockholder Equity 52.35b)
RoCE = 3.56% (EBIT 2.24b / Capital Employed (Equity 52.35b + L.T.Debt 10.49b))
RoIC = 2.73% (NOPAT 1.77b / Invested Capital 64.85b)
WACC = 7.43% (E(34.66b)/V(49.53b) * Re(10.43%) + D(14.87b)/V(49.53b) * Rd(0.56%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.51% ; FCFE base≈58.0m ; Y1≈38.1m ; Y5≈17.4m
Fair Price DCF = 0.32 (DCF Value 242.9m / Shares Outstanding 760.6m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -78.30 | EPS CAGR: -62.26% | SUE: -0.56 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -85.54 | Revenue CAGR: -7.30% | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.14 | Chg30d=-0.050 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.92 | Chg30d=+0.226 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+26.5% | Growth Revenue=+7.4%
Additional Sources for MT Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle