MTG Stock Analysis: MGIC Investment | NYSE
Insurance - Specialty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.951m USD | 12M Return: 18.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 53.5M
EPS Trend: 93.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 88.8%
Qual. Beats: -2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG), founded in 1957 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a U.S.-based provider of private mortgage insurance and related credit risk management services. Through its subsidiaries, the company offers primary mortgage default protection covering unpaid principal, delinquent interest, and foreclosure-related expenses, alongside contract underwriting and reinsurance services.
The company primarily serves residential mortgage loan originators, including commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, mortgage brokers, and mortgage bankers, operating across the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. As a mid-cap stock listed since 1991, MGIC operates in the Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sub-industry, where private mortgage insurers play a counter-cyclical role by absorbing credit risk from lenders, typically on loans with lower down payments.
- Persistency drives insurance in-force growth above expectations
- Mortgage delinquencies stabilize, easing claim loss pressure
- Buyback program expands as capital surplus grows
| Net Income: 718.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 461.9% < 20% (prev 466.5%; Δ -4.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 706.0m > Net Income 718.2m |
| Net Debt (-5.29b) to EBITDA (912.5m): -5.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 10.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (218.2m) vs 12m ago -11.48% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 93.58% > 18% (prev 100.1%; Δ -6.52% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 18.60% > 50% (prev 18.66%; Δ -0.06% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 26.33 > 6 (EBIT TTM 908.4m / Interest Expense TTM 34.5m) |
| A: 0.87 (Total Current Assets 6.16b - Total Current Liabilities 591.7m) / Total Assets 6.42b |
| B: 0.50 (Retained Earnings 3.20b / Total Assets 6.42b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 908.4m / Avg Total Assets 6.48b) |
| D: 3.65 (Book Value of Equity 5.04b / Total Liabilities 1.38b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 12.09 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.21 (Receivables 202.5m/168.8m, Revenue 1.20b/1.22b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 100.1% / 93.58%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 1.20b / 1.22b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 718.2m - CFO 706.0m) / TA 6.42b) |
| Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 29.47 with a total of 1,551,976 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.73%, over one month by +12.05%, over three months by +5.93% and over the past year by +18.22%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.10 (which is 4.6% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
MGIC Investment has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MTG.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28.8 | -2.3% |
P/E Trailing = 8.9333
P/E Forward = 9.0744
P/S = 4.941
P/B = 1.1815
P/EG = 0.396
Revenue TTM = 1.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 908.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 912.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 646.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 646.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -5.29b USD (calculated: Debt 646.5m - CCE 5.94b)
Enterprise Value = 659.6m USD (5.95b + Debt 646.5m - CCE 5.94b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.33 (Ebit TTM 908.4m / Interest Expense TTM 34.5m)
EV/FCF = 0.94x (Enterprise Value 659.6m / FCF TTM 705.0m)
FCF Yield = 106.9% (FCF TTM 705.0m / Enterprise Value 659.6m)
FCF Margin = 58.53% (FCF TTM 705.0m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Net Margin = 59.63% (Net Income TTM 718.2m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Gross Margin = 93.58% ((Revenue TTM 1.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 77.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.40% (prev 89.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 659.6m / Total Assets 6.42b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.34% (Interest Expense 34.5m / Debt 646.5m)
Taxrate = 20.26% (182.5m / 900.7m)
NOPAT = 724.3m (EBIT 908.4m * (1 - 20.26%))
Current Ratio = 10.40 (Total Current Assets 6.16b / Total Current Liabilities 591.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 646.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.04b)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.80 (Net Debt -5.29b / EBITDA 912.5m)
Debt / FCF = -7.51 (Net Debt -5.29b / FCF TTM 705.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.13b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.09% (Net Income 718.2m / Total Assets 6.42b)
RoE = 14.00% (Net Income TTM 718.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.13b)
RoCE = 15.73% (EBIT 908.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.13b + L.T.Debt 646.5m))
RoIC = 12.56% (NOPAT 724.3m / Invested Capital 5.76b)
WACC = 7.00% (E(5.95b)/V(6.60b) * Re(7.30%) + D(646.5m)/V(6.60b) * Rd(5.34%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.85 | Cagr: -10.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.46% ; FCFF base≈725.7m ; Y1≈686.8m ; Y5≈646.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 73.18 (EV 10.2b - Net Debt -5.29b = Equity 15.5b / Shares 211.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -6.86% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.99 | EPS CAGR: 8.97% | SUE: 0.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.80 | Revenue CAGR: 2.11% | SUE: -1.41 | # QB: -2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=-0.26% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.07 | Chg30d=+0.14% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-2.4% | GrowthRev=-1.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.30 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+7.7% | GrowthRev=+1.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -67% (up=0, down=6)