MTG Stock Analysis: MGIC Investment | NYSE
Insurance - Specialty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.602m USD | 12M Return: 7.4% | US5528481030 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 69.8M
EPS Trend: 97.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 77.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG) is a U.S.-based provider of private mortgage insurance and related credit risk management services, operating across the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. The company offers primary mortgage insurance that protects lenders against borrower default on individual residential loans, covering unpaid principal, delinquent interest, and foreclosure-related expenses. In addition, MGIC provides contract underwriting services and reinsurance, serving a broad range of residential mortgage originators including commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, mortgage brokers, and mortgage bankers. Founded in 1957 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, MGIC has been publicly traded since its 1991 IPO and is classified within the Financials sector under Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance.
Private mortgage insurers like MGIC play a specialized role in the housing finance system, typically providing coverage on residential loans with down payments below 20%, thereby enabling lenders to extend higher loan-to-value mortgages while transferring a portion of default risk. The business model is closely tied to U.S. housing market activity and mortgage origination volumes, making it sensitive to interest rate cycles, home price trends, and credit conditions.
- Mortgage origination volumes decline as housing market slows
- Persistency rates improve, boosting net premium income margins
- Capital returns accelerate with share buybacks and dividends
| Net Income: 707.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 498.7% < 20% (prev 469.1%; Δ 29.60% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 708.0m > Net Income 707.9m |
| Net Debt (-5.01b) to EBITDA (923.7m): -5.43 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 37.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (210.9m) vs 12m ago -11.36% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 92.41% > 18% (prev 98.87%; Δ -6.46% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 18.30% > 50% (prev 18.63%; Δ -0.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 26.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM 920.1m / Interest Expense TTM 34.5m) |
| A: 0.91 (Total Current Assets 6.13b - Total Current Liabilities 162.6m) / Total Assets 6.53b |
| B: 0.49 (Retained Earnings 3.17b / Total Assets 6.53b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 920.1m / Avg Total Assets 6.53b) |
| D: 3.31 (Book Value of Equity 5.01b / Total Liabilities 1.51b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 12.00 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.41 (Receivables 69.7m/172.2m, Revenue 1.20b/1.22b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 98.87% / 92.41%) |
| AQI: 1.57 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 1.20b / 1.22b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 707.9m - CFO 708.0m) / TA 6.53b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.80 with a total of 2,629,955 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.41%, over one month by -1.71%, over three months by +0.00% and over the past year by +7.36%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 27.10 (which is 5.9% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
MGIC Investment has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.17. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MTG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 31.4 | 9% |
P/E Trailing = 8.5344
P/E Forward = 8.6806
P/S = 4.6854
P/B = 1.1984
P/EG = 0.396
Revenue TTM = 1.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 920.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 923.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 646.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 646.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -5.01b USD (calculated: Debt 646.9m - CCE 5.66b)
Enterprise Value = 588.6m USD (5.60b + Debt 646.9m - CCE 5.66b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.67 (Ebit TTM 920.1m / Interest Expense TTM 34.5m)
EV/FCF = 0.80x (Enterprise Value 588.6m / FCF TTM 733.7m)
FCF Yield = 124.7% (FCF TTM 733.7m / Enterprise Value 588.6m)
FCF Margin = 61.37% (FCF TTM 733.7m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Net Margin = 59.20% (Net Income TTM 707.9m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Gross Margin = 92.41% ((Revenue TTM 1.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 90.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 88.40%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.09 (Enterprise Value 588.6m / Total Assets 6.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.33% (Interest Expense 34.5m / Debt 646.9m)
Taxrate = 19.97% (176.7m / 884.5m)
NOPAT = 736.3m (EBIT 920.1m * (1 - 19.97%))
Current Ratio = 20.90 (Total Current Assets 6.13b / Total Current Liabilities 293.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 646.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.01b)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.43 (Net Debt -5.01b / EBITDA 923.7m)
Debt / FCF = -6.83 (Net Debt -5.01b / FCF TTM 733.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.09b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.83% (Net Income 707.9m / Total Assets 6.53b)
RoE = 13.90% (Net Income TTM 707.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.09b)
RoCE = 16.03% (EBIT 920.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.09b + L.T.Debt 646.9m))
RoIC = 11.68% (NOPAT 736.3m / Invested Capital 6.30b)
WACC = 6.30% (E(5.60b)/V(6.25b) * Re(6.53%) + D(646.9m)/V(6.25b) * Rd(5.33%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.89 | Cagr: -10.84%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.23% ; FCFF base≈760.3m ; Y1≈710.2m ; Y5≈651.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 74.61 (EV 10.3b - Net Debt -5.01b = Equity 15.3b / Shares 205.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -8.30% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.44 | EPS CAGR: 10.12% | SUE: 2.84 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 77.04 | Revenue CAGR: 1.68% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.82 | Chg30d=+2.34% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.27 | Chg30d=+0.44% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+4.0% | GrowthRev=-1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.45 | Chg30d=+0.55% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+1.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +57% (up=4, down=0)