MTH Stock Analysis: Meritage | NYSE
Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.952m USD | 12M Return: -10.3% | US59001A1025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 58.8M
EPS Trend: -70.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -82.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Meritage Homes Corporation is a US-based homebuilder that designs and constructs single-family attached and detached homes, operating through two segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services. The Homebuilding segment acquires and develops land and constructs, markets, and sells homes targeted primarily at entry-level and first move-up buyers. The homebuilding industry is traditionally considered cyclical, with demand closely tied to mortgage rates, employment trends, and the availability of finished lots.
Meritages geographic footprint spans 12 states across the Sun Belt and Southeast, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Utah, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Concentration in Sun Belt markets positions the company in regions that have historically driven US population and household formation growth.
The Financial Services segment provides title and escrow, mortgage origination, insurance, title insurance, and closing/settlement services to the companys homebuyers. A captive mortgage and title business is a common model among larger homebuilders, helping to streamline the purchase process and capture additional revenue from each home sale. Meritage Homes was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
- Mortgage rate cuts boost entry-level home affordability and orders
- Sun Belt population growth drives home orders and revenue expansion
- Cancellation rates rise as affordability pressures mount on first-time buyers
| Net Income: 329.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 119.6% < 20% (prev 109.7%; Δ 9.89% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 437.9m > Net Income 329.3m |
| Net Debt (1.10b) to EBITDA (504.8m): 2.18 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 11.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (66.6m) vs 12m ago -7.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.05% > 18% (prev 22.93%; Δ -3.87% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 71.25% > 50% (prev 80.14%; Δ -8.89% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 113.5 > 6 (EBIT TTM 480.7m / Interest Expense TTM 4.24m) |
| A: 0.86 (Total Current Assets 7.17b - Total Current Liabilities 649.6m) / Total Assets 7.55b |
| B: 0.67 (Retained Earnings 5.06b / Total Assets 7.55b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 480.7m / Avg Total Assets 7.66b) |
| D: 2.03 (Book Value of Equity 5.06b / Total Liabilities 2.50b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 10.39 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.28 (Receivables 304.1m/270.8m, Revenue 5.45b/6.22b) |
| GMI: 1.20 (GM 22.93% / 19.05%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.88 (Revenue 5.45b / 6.22b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 329.3m - CFO 437.9m) / TA 7.55b) |
| Beneish M = -2.66 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 58.25 with a total of 1,234,452 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.27%, over one month by -9.55%, over three months by -20.51% and over the past year by -10.33%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 55.50 (which is 4.7% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Meritage has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.78. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MTH.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 77.6 | 33.2% |
P/E Trailing = 12.6576
P/E Forward = 12.4844
P/S = 0.7329
P/B = 0.8556
P/EG = 0.5394
Revenue TTM = 5.45b USD
EBIT TTM = 480.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 504.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.85b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 60.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 59.8m
Net Debt = 1.10b USD (calculated: Debt 1.91b - CCE 807.3m)
Enterprise Value = 5.05b USD (3.95b + Debt 1.91b - CCE 807.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 113.5 (Ebit TTM 480.7m / Interest Expense TTM 4.24m)
EV/FCF = 12.18x (Enterprise Value 5.05b / FCF TTM 414.7m)
FCF Yield = 8.21% (FCF TTM 414.7m / Enterprise Value 5.05b)
FCF Margin = 7.60% (FCF TTM 414.7m / Revenue TTM 5.45b)
Net Margin = 6.04% (Net Income TTM 329.3m / Revenue TTM 5.45b)
Gross Margin = 19.05% ((Revenue TTM 5.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.42b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.31% (prev 17.81%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.67 (Enterprise Value 5.05b / Total Assets 7.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.22% (Interest Expense 4.24m / Debt 1.91b)
Taxrate = 22.43% (95.2m / 424.5m)
NOPAT = 372.9m (EBIT 480.7m * (1 - 22.43%))
Current Ratio = 11.04 (Total Current Assets 7.17b / Total Current Liabilities 649.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 1.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.06b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.18 (Net Debt 1.10b / EBITDA 504.8m)
Debt / FCF = 2.65 (Net Debt 1.10b / FCF TTM 414.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.16b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.30% (Net Income 329.3m / Total Assets 7.55b)
RoE = 6.38% (Net Income TTM 329.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.16b)
RoCE = 6.86% (EBIT 480.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.16b + L.T.Debt 1.85b))
RoIC = 5.57% (NOPAT 372.9m / Invested Capital 6.69b)
WACC = 5.99% (E(3.95b)/V(5.86b) * Re(8.80%) + D(1.91b)/V(5.86b) * Rd(0.22%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.53 | Cagr: -4.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈414.7m ; Y1≈416.4m ; Y5≈441.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 88.39 (EV 6.86b - Net Debt 1.10b = Equity 5.76b / Shares 65.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -70.66 | EPS CAGR: -21.97% | SUE: 0.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -81.98 | Revenue CAGR: -5.01% | SUE: 0.87 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.16 | Chg30d=-3.01% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.84 | Chg30d=-3.26% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-23.8% | GrowthRev=-7.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.62 | Chg30d=-7.98% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+16.1% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -73% (up=0, down=8)