(MTH) Meritage - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Residential Construction | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 4.328m USD | Total Return: 4.6% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 42.3M
EPS Trend: -59.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -76.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Beneish M-Score 1.00 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Choppy Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) is a Scottsdale-based residential construction firm specializing in single-family attached and detached homes. The company targets entry-level and first move-up buyers across 12 states, primarily in the South and West. Its integrated business model combines homebuilding operations with a financial services segment that provides mortgage, title, and insurance solutions to streamline the closing process for customers.
The homebuilding industry is currently characterized by a lock-in effect, where limited existing home inventory has shifted demand toward new construction. As a large-scale builder, Meritage utilizes a speculative construction strategy, starting homes before a contract is signed to ensure a consistent supply of move-in ready inventory for price-sensitive buyers. Investors can examine detailed valuation metrics for MTH on ValueRay to further their analysis.
- Mortgage rate fluctuations impact affordability for entry-level and first move-up buyers
- Strategic focus on spec inventory accelerates closings and boosts market share
- Higher material and labor costs compress gross margins across homebuilding segments
- Expansion in Sun Belt markets drives long-term volume and revenue growth
- Federal Reserve monetary policy shifts influence home buyer demand and cancellations
| Net Income: 385.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.09% < 20% (prev 107.4%; Δ -92.34% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 262.2m > Net Income 385.5m |
| Net Debt (1.20b) to EBITDA (503.6m): 2.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (67.4m) vs 12m ago -7.27% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.82% > 18% (prev 0.24%; Δ 1.86k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.64% > 50% (prev 81.62%; Δ -7.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 165.6 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 503.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.89m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.05b - Total Current Liabilities 199.9m) / Total Assets 7.55b |
| B: 0.67 (Retained Earnings 5.09b / Total Assets 7.55b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 478.9m / Avg Total Assets 7.63b) |
| D: 2.07 (Book Value of Equity 5.09b / Total Liabilities 2.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.53 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 280.9m/262.1m, Revenue 5.62b/6.28b) |
| GMI: 1.29 (GM 18.82% / 24.24%) |
| AQI: 20.33 (AQ_t 0.86 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.89 (Revenue 5.62b / 6.28b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 385.5m - CFO 262.2m) / TA 7.55b) |
| Beneish M = 8.80 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of May 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 65.24 with a total of 670,340 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.13%,
over one month by -2.66%,
over three months by -12.85% and
over the past year by +4.64%.
Meritage has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.90. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MTH.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 77.8 | 19.2% |
P/E Trailing = 11.823
P/E Forward = 11.0742
P/S = 0.7706
P/B = 0.8411
P/EG = 0.5394
Revenue TTM = 5.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 478.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 503.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.84b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 60.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.96b USD (corrected: LT Debt 1.84b + ST Debt 60.5m) + Leases 60.8m
Net Debt = 1.20b USD (calculated: Debt 1.96b - CCE 766.6m)
Enterprise Value = 5.52b USD (4.33b + Debt 1.96b - CCE 766.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 165.6 (Ebit TTM 478.9m / Interest Expense TTM 2.89m)
EV/FCF = 23.24x (Enterprise Value 5.52b / FCF TTM 237.7m)
FCF Yield = 4.30% (FCF TTM 237.7m / Enterprise Value 5.52b)
FCF Margin = 4.23% (FCF TTM 237.7m / Revenue TTM 5.62b)
Net Margin = 6.86% (Net Income TTM 385.5m / Revenue TTM 5.62b)
Gross Margin = 18.82% ((Revenue TTM 5.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.56b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.81% (prev 16.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 5.52b / Total Assets 7.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.15% (Interest Expense 2.89m / Debt 1.96b)
Taxrate = 23.74% (17.2m / 72.5m)
NOPAT = 365.2m (EBIT 478.9m * (1 - 23.74%))
Current Ratio = 5.24 (Total Current Assets 1.05b / Total Current Liabilities 199.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 1.96b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.37 (Net Debt 1.20b / EBITDA 503.6m)
Debt / FCF = 5.03 (Net Debt 1.20b / FCF TTM 237.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.21b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.05% (Net Income 385.5m / Total Assets 7.55b)
RoE = 7.40% (Net Income TTM 385.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.21b)
RoCE = 6.79% (EBIT 478.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.21b + L.T.Debt 1.84b))
RoIC = 4.97% (NOPAT 365.2m / Invested Capital 7.35b)
WACC = 6.70% (E(4.33b)/V(6.29b) * Re(9.68%) + D(1.96b)/V(6.29b) * Rd(0.15%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -4.03%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈237.7m ; Y1≈238.7m ; Y5≈252.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 41.04 (EV 3.93b - Net Debt 1.20b = Equity 2.74b / Shares 66.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -59.76 | EPS CAGR: -15.89% | SUE: -0.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -76.73 | Revenue CAGR: -3.70% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=-20.49% | Revisions=-60% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=-14.01% | Revisions=-60% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.05 | Chg30d=-14.64% | Revisions=-60% | GrowthEPS=-20.5% | GrowthRev=-5.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.53 | Chg30d=-13.29% | Revisions=-64% | GrowthEPS=+29.4% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -64%