MTH Stock Analysis: Meritage | NYSE
Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.982m USD | 12M Return: 4.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 77.4M
EPS Trend: -58.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -76.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) is a U.S. homebuilder that designs and constructs single-family attached and detached homes, operating through two segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services. The company follows a land acquisition and development model, sourcing finished lots or raw land, entitling and improving it, then building and selling homes to consumers. The Financial Services segment is a typical captive offering for the homebuilding industry, providing title, escrow, mortgage, and insurance services to support the home purchase process.
The company serves entry-level and first move-up buyers across 12 states, with a footprint concentrated in the Southwest (Arizona, California, Colorado, Utah, Texas) and the Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee). These Sun Belt markets have been a focus area for the U.S. homebuilding sector due to favorable population growth, employment trends, and relative land availability. Meritage was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
- Mortgage rate declines boost entry-level buyer demand and order growth
- Sunbelt land costs pressure gross margins in core Texas Arizona markets
- Energy-efficient homes command pricing premiums over competing builders
- Share repurchases drive earnings per share growth amid housing volatility
| Net Income: 385.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.09% < 20% (prev 107.4%; Δ -92.34% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 262.2m > Net Income 385.5m |
| Net Debt (1.20b) to EBITDA (522.3m): 2.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (67.4m) vs 12m ago -7.27% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.82% > 18% (prev 24.24%; Δ -5.41% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.64% > 50% (prev 81.62%; Δ -7.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 172.0 > 6 (EBIT TTM 497.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.89m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.05b - Total Current Liabilities 199.9m) / Total Assets 7.55b |
| B: 0.67 (Retained Earnings 5.09b / Total Assets 7.55b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 497.6m / Avg Total Assets 7.63b) |
| D: 2.07 (Book Value of Equity 5.09b / Total Liabilities 2.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.55 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 280.9m/262.1m, Revenue 5.62b/6.28b) |
| GMI: 1.29 (GM 24.24% / 18.82%) |
| AQI: 20.33 (AQ_t 0.86 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.89 (Revenue 5.62b / 6.28b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 385.5m - CFO 262.2m) / TA 7.55b) |
| Beneish M = 8.79 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 73.72 with a total of 1,159,775 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.86%, over one month by +1.80%, over three months by +11.36% and over the past year by +4.21%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 70.40 (which is 4.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Meritage has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.90. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MTH.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 80.3 | 8.9% |
P/E Trailing = 13.6095
P/E Forward = 12.4844
P/S = 0.887
P/B = 1.0463
P/EG = 0.5394
Revenue TTM = 5.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 497.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 522.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.84b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 60.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.96b USD (corrected: LT Debt 1.84b + ST Debt 60.5m) + Leases 60.8m
Net Debt = 1.20b USD (calculated: Debt 1.96b - CCE 766.6m)
Enterprise Value = 6.18b USD (4.98b + Debt 1.96b - CCE 766.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 172.0 (Ebit TTM 497.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.89m)
EV/FCF = 25.99x (Enterprise Value 6.18b / FCF TTM 237.7m)
FCF Yield = 3.85% (FCF TTM 237.7m / Enterprise Value 6.18b)
FCF Margin = 4.23% (FCF TTM 237.7m / Revenue TTM 5.62b)
Net Margin = 6.86% (Net Income TTM 385.5m / Revenue TTM 5.62b)
Gross Margin = 18.82% ((Revenue TTM 5.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.56b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.81% (prev 16.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 6.18b / Total Assets 7.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.15% (Interest Expense 2.89m / Debt 1.96b)
Taxrate = 22.43% (111.4m / 497.0m)
NOPAT = 386.0m (EBIT 497.6m * (1 - 22.43%))
Current Ratio = 5.24 (Total Current Assets 1.05b / Total Current Liabilities 199.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 1.96b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.29 (Net Debt 1.20b / EBITDA 522.3m)
Debt / FCF = 5.03 (Net Debt 1.20b / FCF TTM 237.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.21b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.05% (Net Income 385.5m / Total Assets 7.55b)
RoE = 7.40% (Net Income TTM 385.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.21b)
RoCE = 7.05% (EBIT 497.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.21b + L.T.Debt 1.84b))
RoIC = 5.41% (NOPAT 386.0m / Invested Capital 7.13b)
WACC = 6.83% (E(4.98b)/V(6.94b) * Re(9.47%) + D(1.96b)/V(6.94b) * Rd(0.15%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.70 | Cagr: -4.03%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈237.7m ; Y1≈238.7m ; Y5≈252.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 41.04 (EV 3.93b - Net Debt 1.20b = Equity 2.74b / Shares 66.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -58.88 | EPS CAGR: -15.11% | SUE: -0.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -76.73 | Revenue CAGR: -3.70% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=-0.22% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=+5.85% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.03 | Chg30d=-0.42% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=-20.9% | GrowthRev=-5.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.48 | Chg30d=-0.69% | Revisions=-70% | GrowthEPS=+29.0% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -86% (up=0, down=19)