(MTH) Meritage - Overview
Stock: Single-Family Homes, Land Development, Title Services, Mortgage Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.47% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.01% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 26.20% |
| Payout Consistency | 19.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 15.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.89% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.13 |
| Alpha | -12.38 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.788 |
| Beta Downside | 0.514 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 40.85% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.30 |
Description: MTH Meritage January 09, 2026
Meritage Homes Corp. (NYSE:MTH) designs, builds, and sells single-family attached and detached homes across ten Sun Belt states, targeting entry-level and first-move-up buyers. The business operates two segments: a Homebuilding unit that handles land acquisition, development, construction, and marketing, and a Financial Services unit that offers title, escrow, mortgage, and insurance services to streamline the closing process.
Key operational metrics (Q4 2023) show a 12% year-over-year increase in home deliveries to 6,800 units, with an average selling price of $380 k-above the national median but still below premium-priced markets like California. The company’s gross margin improved to 20.5% thanks to cost-controlled land purchases and a higher mix of higher-priced “move-up” homes.
Sector drivers that materially affect Meritage include the ongoing shortage of affordable housing inventory, a historically low mortgage-rate environment (though rates have risen 0.75 ppt YTD), and strong population inflows into the Sun Belt, which together sustain demand for its price-sensitive product line.
For a deeper, data-rich perspective on Meritage’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analyst tools on ValueRay to see how its forward-looking cash-flow models compare to peers.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 453.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.05% < 20% (prev 97.46%; Δ -82.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 118.3m > Net Income 453.0m |
| Net Debt (1.03b) to EBITDA (562.8m): 1.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.39 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (69.8m) vs 12m ago -4.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.80% > 18% (prev 0.25%; Δ 1955 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 79.24% > 50% (prev 89.28%; Δ -10.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 180.5 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 562.8m / Interest Expense TTM 2.98m) |
Altman Z'' 5.72
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.08b - Total Current Liabilities 200.7m) / Total Assets 7.62b |
| B: 0.68 (Retained Earnings 5.19b / Total Assets 7.62b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 537.5m / Avg Total Assets 7.39b) |
| D: 2.14 (Book Value of Equity 5.20b / Total Liabilities 2.43b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.72 = AAA |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 307.0m/256.3m, Revenue 5.86b/6.40b) |
| GMI: 1.26 (GM 19.80% / 24.99%) |
| AQI: 21.31 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 5.86b / 6.40b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 453.0m - CFO 118.3m) / TA 7.62b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 9.49 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of MTH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.21%, over one month by +12.68%, over three months by +16.74% and over the past year by +1.59%.
Is MTH a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MTH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 83.3 | 9.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 83.3 | 9.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 83.8 | 10.4% |
MTH Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.9206
P/S = 0.8355
P/B = 0.9179
P/EG = 1.28
Revenue TTM = 5.86b USD
EBIT TTM = 537.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 562.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.83b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 62.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 1.80b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.03b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.92b USD (4.89b + Debt 1.80b - CCE 775.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 180.5 (Ebit TTM 537.5m / Interest Expense TTM 2.98m)
EV/FCF = 63.99x (Enterprise Value 5.92b / FCF TTM 92.6m)
FCF Yield = 1.56% (FCF TTM 92.6m / Enterprise Value 5.92b)
FCF Margin = 1.58% (FCF TTM 92.6m / Revenue TTM 5.86b)
Net Margin = 7.73% (Net Income TTM 453.0m / Revenue TTM 5.86b)
Gross Margin = 19.80% ((Revenue TTM 5.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.70b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.39% (prev 19.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.78 (Enterprise Value 5.92b / Total Assets 7.62b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.06% (Interest Expense 1.13m / Debt 1.80b)
Taxrate = 18.52% (19.1m / 103.1m)
NOPAT = 437.9m (EBIT 537.5m * (1 - 18.52%))
Current Ratio = 5.39 (Total Current Assets 1.08b / Total Current Liabilities 200.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.35 (Debt 1.80b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.83 (Net Debt 1.03b / EBITDA 562.8m)
Debt / FCF = 11.12 (Net Debt 1.03b / FCF TTM 92.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.13% (Net Income 453.0m / Total Assets 7.62b)
RoE = 8.65% (Net Income TTM 453.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.24b)
RoCE = 7.61% (EBIT 537.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.24b + L.T.Debt 1.83b))
RoIC = 6.18% (NOPAT 437.9m / Invested Capital 7.08b)
WACC = 6.46% (E(4.89b)/V(6.70b) * Re(8.82%) + D(1.80b)/V(6.70b) * Rd(0.06%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.81%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.81% ; FCFF base≈92.6m ; Y1≈60.8m ; Y5≈27.7m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 753.7m - Net Debt 1.03b = -275.9m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -78.52 | EPS CAGR: -34.27% | SUE: -0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 2.18 | Revenue CAGR: 2.86% | SUE: -0.62 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=-0.264 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.41 | Chg30d=-0.555 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+0.9% | Growth Revenue=+1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.83 | Chg30d=-0.720 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+22.1% | Growth Revenue=+9.9%