(MTN) Vail Resorts - Ratings and Ratios
Ski Resorts, Hotels, Real Estate, Ski School, Dining
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 5.94% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.89% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 49.87% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 130.2% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 48.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.84% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.30 |
| Alpha | -28.80 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.477 |
| Beta | 0.777 |
| Beta Downside | 0.780 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.77% |
| Mean DD | 22.55% |
| Median DD | 25.31% |
Description: MTN Vail Resorts January 10, 2026
Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE: MTN) operates a portfolio of mountain resorts, lodging properties, and real-estate projects across the United States and select international locations. The business is organized into three reporting segments: Mountain (ski areas, ski schools, dining, retail, and real-estate brokerage), Lodging (luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand plus ground-transport services), and Real Estate (development, ownership, and sales of property assets).
Key operating metrics from the most recent fiscal year (2023) show total revenue of roughly **$2.5 billion**, with the Mountain segment contributing about **65 %** of that total. The Epic Pass, Vail’s multi-resort ski-pass product, generated **$1.2 billion** in pass-related revenue-a 12 % year-over-year increase, reflecting strong demand for bundled experiential travel.
Economic drivers that materially affect Vail’s performance include: (1) **Winter weather patterns**-snowfall depth and temperature anomalies directly impact lift ticket sales; (2) **Disposable income trends**-the company’s core customers are high-income households, so consumer-confidence and real-estate price appreciation influence both ski-pass renewals and lodging occupancy; and (3) **Travel-cost dynamics**-fuel prices and airline capacity affect the willingness of out-of-state visitors to travel to mountain destinations.
Sector-wide, the leisure-facility industry is increasingly sensitive to **climate-change risk** (shorter ski seasons) and **shifts toward experiential consumption**, prompting operators to diversify revenue through year-round activities (e.g., mountain biking, festivals) and expand premium lodging offerings.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, see ValueRay’s MTN dashboard.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 266.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -29.90% < 20% (prev -17.67%; Δ -12.23% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 588.4m > Net Income 266.1m |
| Net Debt (219.5m) to EBITDA (617.0m): 0.36 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (35.9m) vs 12m ago -4.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 60.89% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 6051 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.16% > 50% (prev 51.16%; Δ 1.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.43 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 617.0m / Interest Expense TTM 180.8m) |
Altman Z'' 0.05
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 1.05b - Total Current Liabilities 1.94b) / Total Assets 5.76b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 452.1m / Total Assets 5.76b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 619.5m / Avg Total Assets 5.70b) |
| D: 0.07 (Book Value of Equity 390.8m / Total Liabilities 5.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.05 = B |
Beneish M -3.16
| DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 175.8m/130.2m, Revenue 2.97b/2.89b) |
| GMI: 0.62 (GM 60.89% / 37.70%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 2.97b / 2.89b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 266.1m - CFO 588.4m) / TA 5.76b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.16 = AA |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 65.02
| 1. Piotroski: 7.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 6.64% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 11.85% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 5.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: 0.36 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: 5.09% |
| 7. RoE: 53.03% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: -17.99% |
| 9. EPS Trend: -23.63% |
What is the price of MTN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.80%, over one month by -2.32%, over three months by -3.68% and over the past year by -11.65%.
Is MTN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MTN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 174.6 | 23.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 174.6 | 23.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 139.5 | -1.6% |
MTN Fundamental Data Overview January 21, 2026
P/E Forward = 19.4553
P/S = 1.7106
P/B = 32.3657
P/EG = 2.0
Revenue TTM = 2.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 619.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 617.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 625.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 800.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 219.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.31b USD (5.09b + Debt 800.9m - CCE 581.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.43 (Ebit TTM 619.5m / Interest Expense TTM 180.8m)
EV/FCF = 15.06x (Enterprise Value 5.31b / FCF TTM 352.5m)
FCF Yield = 6.64% (FCF TTM 352.5m / Enterprise Value 5.31b)
FCF Margin = 11.85% (FCF TTM 352.5m / Revenue TTM 2.97b)
Net Margin = 8.94% (Net Income TTM 266.1m / Revenue TTM 2.97b)
Gross Margin = 60.89% ((Revenue TTM 2.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.16b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 89.58% (prev 90.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 5.31b / Total Assets 5.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.40% (Interest Expense 51.3m / Debt 800.9m)
Taxrate = 25.95% (104.4m / 402.4m)
NOPAT = 458.8m (EBIT 619.5m * (1 - 25.95%))
Current Ratio = 0.54 (Total Current Assets 1.05b / Total Current Liabilities 1.94b)
Debt / Equity = 5.12 (Debt 800.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 156.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.36 (Net Debt 219.5m / EBITDA 617.0m)
Debt / FCF = 0.62 (Net Debt 219.5m / FCF TTM 352.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 501.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.67% (Net Income 266.1m / Total Assets 5.76b)
RoE = 53.03% (Net Income TTM 266.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 501.8m)
RoCE = 20.08% (EBIT 619.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 501.8m + L.T.Debt 2.58b))
RoIC = 13.32% (NOPAT 458.8m / Invested Capital 3.44b)
WACC = 8.23% (E(5.09b)/V(5.89b) * Re(8.78%) + D(800.9m)/V(5.89b) * Rd(6.40%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.94%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.78% ; FCFF base≈336.3m ; Y1≈306.7m ; Y5≈270.2m
Fair Price DCF = 123.4 (EV 4.63b - Net Debt 219.5m = Equity 4.41b / Shares 35.8m; r=8.23% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -10.97% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -23.63 | EPS CAGR: -55.93% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -17.99 | Revenue CAGR: -27.53% | SUE: -0.27 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=10.76 | Chg30d=+0.138 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-07-31): EPS=6.87 | Chg30d=-0.196 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-8.7% | Growth Revenue=+0.8%
EPS next Year (2027-07-31): EPS=7.94 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+15.6% | Growth Revenue=+4.0%
Additional Sources for MTN Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle