MTN Stock Analysis: Vail Resorts | NYSE

Resorts & Casinos | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.174m USD | 12M Return: 3.7% | US91879Q1094 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Mountain Resorts, Ski School, Lodging, Real Estate
Total Rating 42
Safety 53
Buy Signal 0.08
Resorts & Casinos
Industry Rotation: +1.9
Market Cap: 5.17B
Avg Turnover: 142M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility31.1%
VaR 5th Pctl5.44%
VaR vs Median6.07%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.17
Rel. Str. IBD57.5
Rel. Str. Peer Group76.4
Character TTM
Beta0.203
Beta Downside0.314
Hurst Exponent0.403
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD43.20%
CAGR/Max DD-0.17
CAGR/Mean DD-0.30
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MTN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-10": -3.44, "2022-01": 5.47, "2022-04": 9.16, "2022-07": -2.7, "2022-10": -3.4, "2023-01": 5.16, "2023-04": 8.18, "2023-07": -3.35, "2023-10": -4.6, "2024-01": 5.76, "2024-04": 10.26, "2024-07": -4.67, "2024-10": -4.61, "2025-01": 6.56, "2025-04": 10.54, "2025-07": -5.08, "2025-10": -5.2, "2026-01": 5.87, "2026-04": 8.81, "2026-07": -5.34,
EPS CAGR: -9.62%
EPS Trend: -42.1%
Last SUE: 0.17
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MTN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-10: 175.576, 2022-01: 906.535, 2022-04: 1176.665, 2022-07: 267.136, 2022-10: 279.447, 2023-01: 1101.718, 2023-04: 1238.431, 2023-07: 269.768, 2023-10: 258.565, 2024-01: 1077.958, 2024-04: 1283.282, 2024-07: 265.386, 2024-10: 260.275, 2025-01: 1137.225, 2025-04: 1295.558, 2025-07: 271.289, 2025-10: 271.029, 2026-01: 1083.89, 2026-04: 1205.175, 2026-07: 278.11,
Rev. CAGR: 0.22%
Rev. Trend: 11.1%
Last SUE: 0.68
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -4.7% 17
Feb -1.3% 8
Mar +1.1% 18
Apr -0.2% 10
May +1.1% 32
Jun -0.2% 7
Jul +0.8% 17
Aug +0.4% 5
Sep -3.4% 60
Oct -0.7% 11
Nov +1.8% 14
Dec -1.5% 27

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MTN Vail Resorts

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) is a Colorado-based hospitality company that operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and abroad. Founded in 1962 and headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado, the company reports through three business segments: Mountain (resort operations, ski school, dining, retail/rental, and real estate brokerage), Lodging (luxury hotels and condominiums operated under the RockResorts brand, along with other lodging properties and ground transportation), and Real Estate (development and sale of properties). Vail Resorts has been listed on the NYSE since its 1997 IPO.

The company is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Leisure Facilities sub-industry, a category that includes operators of recreational and resort-based assets whose demand is largely tied to discretionary travel and tourism spending. Its business model relies on an integrated resort approach, combining lift access, on-site accommodations, and ancillary amenities such as ski school, food and beverage, and equipment retail/rental to drive guest spending across its mountain destinations.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Epic Pass season sales lift Mountain segment revenue
  • Mild winter snowfall pressures visitation and lift ticket demand
  • California and Alaska acquisitions expand resort footprint and capital deployment
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 147.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.11 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -7.77% < 20% (prev -20.84%; Δ 13.07% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 543.6m > Net Income 147.5m
Net Debt (3.39b) to EBITDA (738.4m): 4.59 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.80 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (35.8m) vs 12m ago -2.00% < -2%
Gross Margin: 41.75% > 18% (prev 42.78%; Δ -1.03% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 50.21% > 50% (prev 51.31%; Δ -1.09% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.10 > 6 (EBIT TTM 432.6m / Interest Expense TTM 205.6m)
Altman Z'' 0.63
A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 876.5m - Total Current Liabilities 1.10b) / Total Assets 5.53b
B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 549.1m / Total Assets 5.53b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 432.6m / Avg Total Assets 5.65b)
D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 240.5m / Total Liabilities 4.97b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.63 = B
Beneish M -3.05
DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 355.3m/382.4m, Revenue 2.84b/2.96b)
GMI: 1.02 (GM 42.78% / 41.75%)
AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.37)
SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 2.84b / 2.96b)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 147.5m - CFO 543.6m) / TA 5.53b)
Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of MTN shares?

As of October 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 146.03 with a total of 720,214 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.06%, over one month by +13.79%, over three months by +0.55% and over the past year by +3.73%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 138.40 (which is 5.2% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is MTN a buy, sell or hold?

Vail Resorts has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.38. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MTN.

  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the MTN price?
Analysts Target Price 143.9 -1.5%
Vail Resorts (MTN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 October 2026
Market Cap USD = 5.17b (5.17b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 35.2427
P/E Forward = 21.9298
P/S = 1.8231
P/B = 9.0452
P/EG = 3.3335
Revenue TTM = 2.84b USD
EBIT TTM = 432.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 738.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.95b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 119.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.66b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 234.3m
Net Debt = 3.39b USD (calculated: Debt 3.66b - CCE 268.5m)
Enterprise Value = 8.56b USD (5.17b + Debt 3.66b - CCE 268.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.10 (Ebit TTM 432.6m / Interest Expense TTM 205.6m)
EV/FCF = 27.44x (Enterprise Value 8.56b / FCF TTM 312.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.64% (FCF TTM 312.0m / Enterprise Value 8.56b)
FCF Margin = 10.99% (FCF TTM 312.0m / Revenue TTM 2.84b)
Net Margin = 5.20% (Net Income TTM 147.5m / Revenue TTM 2.84b)
Gross Margin = 41.75% ((Revenue TTM 2.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.65b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -146.2% (prev 49.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.55 (Enterprise Value 8.56b / Total Assets 5.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.62% (Interest Expense 205.6m / Debt 3.66b)
Taxrate = 24.77% (56.2m / 227.0m)
NOPAT = 325.4m (EBIT 432.6m * (1 - 24.77%))
Current Ratio = 0.80 (Total Current Assets 876.5m / Total Current Liabilities 1.10b)
Debt / Equity = 15.20 (Debt 3.66b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 240.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.59 (Net Debt 3.39b / EBITDA 738.4m)
Debt / FCF = 10.86 (Net Debt 3.39b / FCF TTM 312.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 312.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.61% (Net Income 147.5m / Total Assets 5.53b)
RoE = 47.19% (Net Income TTM 147.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 312.6m)
RoCE = 13.26% (EBIT 432.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 312.6m + L.T.Debt 2.95b))
RoIC = 7.38% (NOPAT 325.4m / Invested Capital 4.41b)
WACC = 5.68% (E(5.17b)/V(8.83b) * Re(6.70%) + D(3.66b)/V(8.83b) * Rd(5.62%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.74 | Cagr: -2.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.11% ; FCFF base≈315.1m ; Y1≈310.0m ; Y5≈315.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 43.17 (EV 4.93b - Net Debt 3.39b = Equity 1.54b / Shares 35.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -2.40% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -42.13 | EPS CAGR: -9.62% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 11.11 | Revenue CAGR: 0.22% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=-5.62 | Chg30d=-5.44% | Revisions=-10% | Analysts=10
EPS next Quarter (2027-01-31): EPS=6.51 | Chg30d=-1.19% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2027-07-31): EPS=5.55 | Chg30d=-13.29% | Revisions=-64% | GrowthEPS=+34.8% | GrowthRev=+6.7%
EPS next Year (2028-07-31): EPS=6.52 | Chg30d=-8.39% | Revisions=-22% | GrowthEPS=+17.4% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -45% (up=7, down=21)