MTN Stock Analysis: Vail Resorts | NYSE

Resorts & Casinos | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.101m USD | 12M Return: -2.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Mountain Resorts, Lodging, Ski Schools, Real Estate
Total Rating 36
Safety 52
Buy Signal -0.79
Resorts & Casinos
Industry Rotation: -15.4
Market Cap: 5.10B
Avg Turnover: 107M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility30.5%
VaR 5th Pctl5.25%
VaR vs Median4.70%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Rel. Str. IBD47
Rel. Str. Peer Group56
Character TTM
Beta0.507
Beta Downside0.690
Hurst Exponent0.435
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD45.73%
CAGR/Max DD-0.23
CAGR/Mean DD-0.40
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MTN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-07": -3.49, "2021-10": -3.44, "2022-01": 5.47, "2022-04": 9.16, "2022-07": -2.7, "2022-10": -3.4, "2023-01": 5.16, "2023-04": 8.18, "2023-07": -3.35, "2023-10": -4.6, "2024-01": 5.76, "2024-04": 10.26, "2024-07": -4.67, "2024-10": -4.61, "2025-01": 6.56, "2025-04": 10.54, "2025-07": -5.08, "2025-10": -5.2, "2026-01": 5.87, "2026-04": 8.81,
EPS CAGR: -3.10%
EPS Trend: -16.6%
Last SUE: -0.67
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MTN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-07: 204.202, 2021-10: 175.576, 2022-01: 906.535, 2022-04: 1176.665, 2022-07: 267.136, 2022-10: 279.447, 2023-01: 1101.718, 2023-04: 1238.431, 2023-07: 269.768, 2023-10: 258.565, 2024-01: 1077.958, 2024-04: 1283.282, 2024-07: 265.386, 2024-10: 260.275, 2025-01: 1137.225, 2025-04: 1295.558, 2025-07: 271.289, 2025-10: 271.029, 2026-01: 1083.89, 2026-04: 1205.175,
Rev. CAGR: 0.67%
Rev. Trend: 37.0%
Last SUE: -0.32
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Fakeout

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -2.9% 12
Feb -0.9% 2
Mar +1.0% 14
Apr +0.0% 0
May +2.1% 42
Jun -0.7% 13
Jul +0.4% 5
Aug +0.4% 5
Sep -3.3% 55
Oct -0.8% 6
Nov +2.9% 21
Dec -2.1% 35

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MTN Vail Resorts

Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE: MTN) operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination resorts and regional ski areas along with ancillary offerings such as ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations. The Lodging segment owns and manages luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand and provides resort ground transportation, while the Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells properties. The company is based in Broomfield, Colorado, and was founded in 1962.

As a GICS Consumer Discretionary company in the Leisure Facilities sub-industry, Vail Resorts operates a vertically integrated mountain resort business model, controlling ski operations, lodging, dining, retail/rental, and real estate at its properties. The company is known in the industry for its multi-resort season pass products, which drive customer loyalty and recurring revenue. Resort and leisure companies in this segment are typically exposed to seasonal demand patterns and discretionary consumer spending tied to travel and tourism.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Early-season snowfall drives Mountain segment visitation and ancillary spending
  • Epic Pass pricing strategy and renewal rates shape Mountain segment revenue
  • Lodging occupancy and resort fees track destination ski demand
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0
Net Income: 178.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.71 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -3.27% < 20% (prev -21.25%; Δ 17.99% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 475.1m > Net Income 178.0m
Net Debt (3.12b) to EBITDA (738.9m): 4.22 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.91 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (35.9m) vs 12m ago -3.67% < -2%
Gross Margin: 55.55% > 18% (prev 42.81%; Δ 12.74% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 49.46% > 50% (prev 51.33%; Δ -1.87% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 437.2m / Interest Expense TTM 197.9m)
Altman Z'' 1.00
A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 952.2m - Total Current Liabilities 1.04b) / Total Assets 5.69b
B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 818.3m / Total Assets 5.69b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 437.2m / Avg Total Assets 5.72b)
D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 551.7m / Total Liabilities 4.77b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.00 = BB
Beneish M -3.17
DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 356.9m/335.9m, Revenue 2.83b/2.96b)
GMI: 0.77 (GM 42.81% / 55.55%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.37)
SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 2.83b / 2.96b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 178.0m - CFO 475.1m) / TA 5.69b)
Beneish M = -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of MTN shares?

As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 150.14 with a total of 1,154,250 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.72%, over one month by +14.39%, over three months by +17.14% and over the past year by -2.54%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 138.10 (which is 8% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).

Is MTN a buy, sell or hold?

Vail Resorts has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MTN.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MTN price?
Analysts Target Price 148.5 -1.1%
Vail Resorts (MTN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 10 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 5.10b (5.10b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 30.6552
P/E Forward = 19.8413
P/S = 1.8076
P/B = 9.0859
P/EG = 3.3335
Revenue TTM = 2.83b USD
EBIT TTM = 437.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 738.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.95b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 109.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.49b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 234.3m
Net Debt = 3.12b USD (calculated: Debt 3.49b - CCE 371.4m)
Enterprise Value = 8.22b USD (5.10b + Debt 3.49b - CCE 371.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.21 (Ebit TTM 437.2m / Interest Expense TTM 197.9m)
EV/FCF = 34.61x (Enterprise Value 8.22b / FCF TTM 237.5m)
FCF Yield = 2.89% (FCF TTM 237.5m / Enterprise Value 8.22b)
FCF Margin = 8.39% (FCF TTM 237.5m / Revenue TTM 2.83b)
Net Margin = 6.29% (Net Income TTM 178.0m / Revenue TTM 2.83b)
Gross Margin = 55.55% ((Revenue TTM 2.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.26b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.63% (prev 94.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 8.22b / Total Assets 5.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.67% (Interest Expense 197.9m / Debt 3.49b)
Taxrate = 32.78% (78.4m / 239.3m)
NOPAT = 293.9m (EBIT 437.2m * (1 - 32.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.91 (Total Current Assets 952.2m / Total Current Liabilities 1.04b)
Debt / Equity = 6.33 (Debt 3.49b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 551.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.22 (Net Debt 3.12b / EBITDA 738.9m)
Debt / FCF = 13.14 (Net Debt 3.12b / FCF TTM 237.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 358.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.11% (Net Income 178.0m / Total Assets 5.69b)
RoE = 49.64% (Net Income TTM 178.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 358.6m)
RoCE = 13.21% (EBIT 437.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 358.6m + L.T.Debt 2.95b))
RoIC = 6.38% (NOPAT 293.9m / Invested Capital 4.61b)
WACC = 6.16% (E(5.10b)/V(8.59b) * Re(7.77%) + D(3.49b)/V(8.59b) * Rd(5.67%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 7.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.61 | Cagr: -2.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈301.3m ; Y1≈264.2m ; Y5≈213.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.58 (EV 3.43b - Net Debt 3.12b = Equity 305.7m / Shares 35.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -16.58 | EPS CAGR: -3.10% | SUE: -0.67 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 36.97 | Revenue CAGR: 0.67% | SUE: -0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=-5.33 | Chg30d=+0.20% | Revisions=-10% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-07-31): EPS=4.35 | Chg30d=-8.49% | Revisions=-31% | GrowthEPS=-42.3% | GrowthRev=-4.3%
EPS next Year (2027-07-31): EPS=6.26 | Chg30d=-10.81% | Revisions=-64% | GrowthEPS=+44.0% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -45% (up=7, down=21)