MUSA Stock Analysis: Murphy USA | NYSE
Specialty Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.405m USD | 12M Return: 44.9% | US6267551025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 112M
EPS Trend: 64.2%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: -63.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Murphy USA Inc. is a U.S.-based retailer specializing in motor fuel and convenience merchandise, operating under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek banners. Its store footprint is concentrated in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest regions, and the company also runs non-fuel convenience locations. Founded in 1996 and headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, Murphy USA trades on the NYSE under the ticker MUSA and was spun off from Murphy Oil in 2013.
As a member of the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector and Automotive Retail sub-industry, the company operates in a high-volume, low-margin business model in which profitability is typically driven by retail fuel margins, in-store merchandise sales, and customer traffic at the fuel island. The competitive landscape includes other convenience and fuel retailers such as Alimentation Couche-Tard (Circle K), 7-Eleven, Caseys General Stores, and Wawa, as well as supermarket and club-store fuel programs.
- Fuel margin volatility drives quarterly earnings swings
- QuickChek acquisition expands Northeast convenience footprint
- Tobacco sales decline amid regulatory and vaping headwinds
| Net Income: 617.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.38% < 20% (prev -1.03%; Δ 0.64% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 985.3m > Net Income 617.2m |
| Net Debt (3.11b) to EBITDA (1.10b): 2.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.92 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.6m) vs 12m ago -6.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.26% > 18% (prev 8.42%; Δ -1.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 442.5% > 50% (prev 421.4%; Δ 21.11% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM 808.0m / Interest Expense TTM 116.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.01b - Total Current Liabilities 1.09b) / Total Assets 5.08b |
| B: 0.88 (Retained Earnings 4.49b / Total Assets 5.08b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 808.0m / Avg Total Assets 4.85b) |
| D: 0.18 (Book Value of Equity 782.7m / Total Liabilities 4.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.09 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 379.2m/296.3m, Revenue 21.5b/19.5b) |
| GMI: 1.16 (GM 8.42% / 7.26%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 21.5b / 19.5b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 617.2m - CFO 985.3m) / TA 5.08b) |
| Beneish M = -2.72 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 529.14 with a total of 248,385 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.74%, over one month by +2.26%, over three months by -9.41% and over the past year by +44.88%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 498.70 (which is 5.8% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Murphy USA has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.10. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MUSA.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 617.8 | 16.8% |
P/E Trailing = 15.619
P/E Forward = 17.1233
P/S = 0.4925
P/B = 11.8882
P/EG = 1.5097
Revenue TTM = 21.5b USD
EBIT TTM = 808.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.10b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 19.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 549.4m
Net Debt = 3.11b USD (calculated: Debt 3.28b - CCE 175.4m)
Enterprise Value = 12.5b USD (9.40b + Debt 3.28b - CCE 175.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.97 (Ebit TTM 808.0m / Interest Expense TTM 116.0m)
EV/FCF = 23.11x (Enterprise Value 12.5b / FCF TTM 541.5m)
FCF Yield = 4.33% (FCF TTM 541.5m / Enterprise Value 12.5b)
FCF Margin = 2.52% (FCF TTM 541.5m / Revenue TTM 21.5b)
Net Margin = 2.87% (Net Income TTM 617.2m / Revenue TTM 21.5b)
Gross Margin = 7.26% ((Revenue TTM 21.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 19.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.97% (prev 5.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.46 (Enterprise Value 12.5b / Total Assets 5.08b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.53% (Interest Expense 116.0m / Debt 3.28b)
Taxrate = 23.67% (191.4m / 808.6m)
NOPAT = 616.7m (EBIT 808.0m * (1 - 23.67%))
Current Ratio = 0.92 (Total Current Assets 1.01b / Total Current Liabilities 1.09b)
Debt / Equity = 4.20 (Debt 3.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 782.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.84 (Net Debt 3.11b / EBITDA 1.10b)
Debt / FCF = 5.74 (Net Debt 3.11b / FCF TTM 541.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 652.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.72% (Net Income 617.2m / Total Assets 5.08b)
RoE = 94.56% (Net Income TTM 617.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 652.7m)
RoCE = 28.66% (EBIT 808.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 652.7m + L.T.Debt 2.17b))
RoIC = 16.07% (NOPAT 616.7m / Invested Capital 3.84b)
WACC = 4.26% (E(9.40b)/V(12.7b) * Re(4.81%) + D(3.28b)/V(12.7b) * Rd(3.53%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 4.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.00 | Cagr: -5.68%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈470.8m ; Y1≈539.7m ; Y5≈794.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 481.1 (EV 12.0b - Net Debt 3.11b = Equity 8.84b / Shares 18.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 64.19 | EPS CAGR: 7.38% | SUE: 2.10 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: -63.17 | Revenue CAGR: -3.13% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=8.48 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+10% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=34.94 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+39.8% | GrowthRev=+20.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=30.68 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=-12.2% | GrowthRev=-6.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +21% (up=10, down=6)