MUSA Stock Analysis: Murphy USA | NYSE
Specialty Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 10.480m USD | 12M Return: 47% | US6267551025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 155M
EPS Trend: 64.2%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: -63.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE: MUSA) is a U.S.-based retailer that markets motor fuel and convenience merchandise through a network of company-operated stores. The company runs fuel stations under the Murphy USA and Murphy Express brands and convenience stores under the QuickChek brand, in addition to operating non-fuel convenience locations.
The companys retail fuel stations are concentrated in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest regions of the United States. Murphy USA is classified within the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector and the Automotive Retail sub-industry, reflecting its fuel-led retail model that pairs gasoline sales with higher-margin in-store merchandise such as packaged beverages, snacks, and tobacco products.
Murphy USA was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas. The company trades as a large-cap common stock on the NYSE following its 2013 IPO.
- Retail fuel margins per gallon drive quarterly earnings volatility
- Merchandise margins grow as convenience store traffic expands
- Aggressive share repurchases boost earnings per share growth
| Net Income: 617.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.38% < 20% (prev -1.03%; Δ 0.64% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 985.3m > Net Income 617.2m |
| Net Debt (3.11b) to EBITDA (1.10b): 2.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.92 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.6m) vs 12m ago -6.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.26% > 18% (prev 8.42%; Δ -1.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 442.5% > 50% (prev 421.4%; Δ 21.11% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM 808.0m / Interest Expense TTM 116.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.01b - Total Current Liabilities 1.09b) / Total Assets 5.08b |
| B: 0.88 (Retained Earnings 4.49b / Total Assets 5.08b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 808.0m / Avg Total Assets 4.85b) |
| D: 0.18 (Book Value of Equity 782.7m / Total Liabilities 4.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.09 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 379.2m/296.3m, Revenue 21.5b/19.5b) |
| GMI: 1.16 (GM 8.42% / 7.26%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 21.5b / 19.5b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 617.2m - CFO 985.3m) / TA 5.08b) |
| Beneish M = -2.72 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 26, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 544.31 with a total of 249,012 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.08%, over one month by -10.73%, over three months by +2.59% and over the past year by +47.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 503.10 (which is 7.6% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Murphy USA has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.89. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MUSA.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 622.7 | 14.4% |
P/E Trailing = 17.3894
P/E Forward = 18.1488
P/S = 0.5489
P/B = 13.3441
P/EG = 1.5097
Revenue TTM = 21.5b USD
EBIT TTM = 808.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.10b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 19.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 549.4m
Net Debt = 3.11b USD (calculated: Debt 3.28b - CCE 175.4m)
Enterprise Value = 13.6b USD (10.5b + Debt 3.28b - CCE 175.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.97 (Ebit TTM 808.0m / Interest Expense TTM 116.0m)
EV/FCF = 25.10x (Enterprise Value 13.6b / FCF TTM 541.5m)
FCF Yield = 3.98% (FCF TTM 541.5m / Enterprise Value 13.6b)
FCF Margin = 2.52% (FCF TTM 541.5m / Revenue TTM 21.5b)
Net Margin = 2.87% (Net Income TTM 617.2m / Revenue TTM 21.5b)
Gross Margin = 7.26% ((Revenue TTM 21.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 19.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.97% (prev 5.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.67 (Enterprise Value 13.6b / Total Assets 5.08b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.53% (Interest Expense 116.0m / Debt 3.28b)
Taxrate = 23.67% (191.4m / 808.6m)
NOPAT = 616.7m (EBIT 808.0m * (1 - 23.67%))
Current Ratio = 0.92 (Total Current Assets 1.01b / Total Current Liabilities 1.09b)
Debt / Equity = 4.20 (Debt 3.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 782.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.84 (Net Debt 3.11b / EBITDA 1.10b)
Debt / FCF = 5.74 (Net Debt 3.11b / FCF TTM 541.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 652.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.72% (Net Income 617.2m / Total Assets 5.08b)
RoE = 94.56% (Net Income TTM 617.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 652.7m)
RoCE = 28.66% (EBIT 808.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 652.7m + L.T.Debt 2.17b))
RoIC = 16.07% (NOPAT 616.7m / Invested Capital 3.84b)
WACC = 4.23% (E(10.5b)/V(13.8b) * Re(4.71%) + D(3.28b)/V(13.8b) * Rd(3.53%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 4.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.00 | Cagr: -5.68%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈470.8m ; Y1≈539.7m ; Y5≈794.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 481.1 (EV 12.0b - Net Debt 3.11b = Equity 8.84b / Shares 18.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 64.19 | EPS CAGR: 7.38% | SUE: 2.10 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: -63.17 | Revenue CAGR: -3.13% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=8.48 | Chg30d=+1.63% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=34.94 | Chg30d=+7.10% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+39.8% | GrowthRev=+19.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=30.68 | Chg30d=+4.04% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=-12.2% | GrowthRev=-6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +13% (up=7, down=5)