MUSA Stock Analysis: Murphy USA | NYSE
Specialty Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 10.400m USD | 12M Return: 39.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 198M
EPS Trend: 38.5%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -96.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE: MUSA) is a U.S.-based retailer that markets motor fuel and convenience merchandise through a network of company-operated stores. The company runs fuel stations under the Murphy USA and Murphy Express brands and convenience stores under the QuickChek brand, in addition to operating non-fuel convenience locations.
The companys retail fuel stations are concentrated in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest regions of the United States. Murphy USA is classified within the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector and the Automotive Retail sub-industry, reflecting its fuel-led retail model that pairs gasoline sales with higher-margin in-store merchandise such as packaged beverages, snacks, and tobacco products.
Murphy USA was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas. The company trades as a large-cap common stock on the NYSE following its 2013 IPO.
- Retail fuel margins per gallon drive quarterly earnings volatility
- Merchandise margins grow as convenience store traffic expands
- Aggressive share repurchases boost earnings per share growth
| Net Income: 553.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.91% < 20% (prev -0.88%; Δ -0.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 1.01b > Net Income 553.7m |
| Net Debt (3.10b) to EBITDA (1.12b): 2.77 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.7m) vs 12m ago -7.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 5.51% > 18% (prev 9.92%; Δ -4.41% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 420.1% > 50% (prev 442.6%; Δ -22.49% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.32 > 6 (EBIT TTM 838.0m / Interest Expense TTM 114.5m) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 871.1m - Total Current Liabilities 1.05b) / Total Assets 4.87b |
| B: 0.88 (Retained Earnings 4.30b / Total Assets 4.87b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 838.0m / Avg Total Assets 4.68b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 658.7m / Total Liabilities 4.21b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.00 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.32 (Receivables 354.1m/272.1m, Revenue 19.7b/19.9b) |
| GMI: 1.80 (GM 9.92% / 5.51%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 19.7b / 19.9b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 553.7m - CFO 1.01b) / TA 4.87b) |
| Beneish M = -2.10 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 590.23 with a total of 191,586 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.26%, over one month by -3.58%, over three months by +19.80% and over the past year by +39.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 560.30 (which is 5.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Murphy USA has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.89. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MUSA.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 588.7 | -0.3% |
P/E Trailing = 19.5711
P/E Forward = 20.284
P/S = 0.5987
P/B = 15.7241
P/EG = 1.3917
Revenue TTM = 19.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 838.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.14b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 19.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.22b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 532.6m
Net Debt = 3.10b USD (calculated: Debt 3.22b - CCE 118.6m)
Enterprise Value = 13.5b USD (10.4b + Debt 3.22b - CCE 118.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.32 (Ebit TTM 838.0m / Interest Expense TTM 114.5m)
EV/FCF = 24.32x (Enterprise Value 13.5b / FCF TTM 555.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.11% (FCF TTM 555.3m / Enterprise Value 13.5b)
FCF Margin = 2.82% (FCF TTM 555.3m / Revenue TTM 19.7b)
Net Margin = 2.81% (Net Income TTM 553.7m / Revenue TTM 19.7b)
Gross Margin = 5.51% ((Revenue TTM 19.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.6b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 5.43% (prev 5.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.77 (Enterprise Value 13.5b / Total Assets 4.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.55% (Interest Expense 114.5m / Debt 3.22b)
Taxrate = 23.47% (169.8m / 723.5m)
NOPAT = 641.3m (EBIT 838.0m * (1 - 23.47%))
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 871.1m / Total Current Liabilities 1.05b)
Debt / Equity = 4.89 (Debt 3.22b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 658.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.77 (Net Debt 3.10b / EBITDA 1.12b)
Debt / FCF = 5.59 (Net Debt 3.10b / FCF TTM 555.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 618.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.82% (Net Income 553.7m / Total Assets 4.87b)
RoE = 89.51% (Net Income TTM 553.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 618.6m)
RoCE = 30.41% (EBIT 838.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 618.6m + L.T.Debt 2.14b))
RoIC = 17.25% (NOPAT 641.3m / Invested Capital 3.72b)
WACC = 4.64% (E(10.4b)/V(13.6b) * Re(5.23%) + D(3.22b)/V(13.6b) * Rd(3.55%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 5.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -5.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈481.3m ; Y1≈551.8m ; Y5≈812.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 493.6 (EV 12.2b - Net Debt 3.10b = Equity 9.12b / Shares 18.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 38.53 | EPS CAGR: 2.40% | SUE: 2.03 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -96.60 | Revenue CAGR: -5.17% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=9.60 | Chg30d=+0.95% | Revisions=+70% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=8.13 | Chg30d=+1.65% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=32.48 | Chg30d=+1.09% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+29.9% | GrowthRev=+13.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=29.61 | Chg30d=+0.98% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=-8.8% | GrowthRev=-0.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +83% (up=26, down=1)