(MUSA) Murphy USA - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Specialty Retail | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 10.643m USD | Total Return: 24% in 12m

Gasoline, Diesel, Tobacco, Snacks, Beverages
Total Rating 76
Safety 54
Buy Signal 1.40
Specialty Retail
Industry Rotation: -7.3
Market Cap: 10.6B
Avg Turnover: 169M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility37.0%
VaR 5th Pctl6.44%
VaR vs Median5.61%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.65
Rel. Str. IBD85.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group96.9
Character TTM
Beta-0.034
Beta Downside-0.224
Hurst Exponent0.413
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD35.54%
CAGR/Max DD0.80
CAGR/Mean DD2.50
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MUSA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 2.25, "2021-06": 4.79, "2021-09": 3.98, "2021-12": 4.23, "2022-03": 6.08, "2022-06": 7.53, "2022-09": 9.28, "2022-12": 5.21, "2023-03": 4.8, "2023-06": 6.02, "2023-09": 7.69, "2023-12": 7, "2024-03": 3.12, "2024-06": 6.92, "2024-09": 7.2, "2024-12": 7.5, "2025-03": 2.63, "2025-06": 7.36, "2025-09": 6.76, "2025-12": 7.53, "2026-03": 7.28,
EPS CAGR: -0.90%
EPS Trend: -4.9%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of MUSA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 3537.1, 2021-06: 4456, 2021-09: 4600.4, 2021-12: 4767, 2022-03: 5118.4, 2022-06: 6766.7, 2022-09: 6194.7, 2022-12: 5366.3, 2023-03: 5077.2, 2023-06: 5585.4, 2023-09: 5797.9, 2023-12: 5068.9, 2024-03: 4843.7, 2024-06: 5451.7, 2024-09: 5238.5, 2024-12: 4710.4, 2025-03: 4525.4, 2025-06: 5005, 2025-09: 5110, 2025-12: 4743.6, 2026-03: 4819.3,
Rev. CAGR: -8.65%
Rev. Trend: -75.7%
Last SUE: 0.94
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Supp Ema20, Leader, Tailwind, Pullback 52w, Confidence

Description: MUSA Murphy USA

Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE: MUSA) is a high-volume retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise, operating a network of stores primarily across the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company utilizes a multi-brand strategy through its Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek banners to capture diverse consumer segments.

The business model focuses on low-cost operations and high-traffic locations, often situated near Walmart stores to leverage existing customer flows. In the automotive retail sector, fuel margins are typically volatile, leading companies to prioritize high-margin convenience store sales and tobacco products to stabilize earnings. Investors can examine detailed historical performance trends on ValueRay to further evaluate the companys valuation.

Headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, Murphy USA has expanded from its 1996 origins into a significant player in the GICS Automotive Retail sub-industry. The firm manages both traditional fuel stations and standalone non-fuel convenience stores, diversifying its revenue streams within the retail energy space.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Retail fuel margin volatility directly impacts quarterly earnings and share price performance
  • High-volume low-price business model relies on consistent regional consumer fuel demand
  • QuickChek integration and store expansion drive higher margin merchandise revenue growth
  • Federal RFS compliance costs and RIN price fluctuations affect fuel profitability
  • Strategic proximity to Walmart locations secures steady customer traffic and volume levels
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 553.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.18 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -0.91% < 20% (prev -0.88%; Δ -0.03% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 1.01b > Net Income 553.7m
Net Debt (2.57b) to EBITDA (1.14b): 2.26 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.7m) vs 12m ago -7.40% < -2%
Gross Margin: 5.51% > 18% (prev 0.10%; Δ 540.8% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 420.1% > 50% (prev 442.6%; Δ -22.49% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.47 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.14b / Interest Expense TTM 114.5m)
Altman Z'' 4.94
A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 871.1m - Total Current Liabilities 1.05b) / Total Assets 4.87b
B: 0.88 (Retained Earnings 4.30b / Total Assets 4.87b)
C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 855.8m / Avg Total Assets 4.68b)
D: 1.02 (Book Value of Equity 4.30b / Total Liabilities 4.21b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 4.94 = AAA
Beneish M -2.18
DSRI: 1.32 (Receivables 354.1m/272.1m, Revenue 19.68b/19.93b)
GMI: 1.80 (GM 5.51% / 9.92%)
AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.11)
SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 19.68b / 19.93b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI 553.7m - CFO 1.01b) / TA 4.87b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.18 (Cap -4..+1) = BB
What is the price of MUSA shares? As of May 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 565.34 with a total of 211,962 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.07%, over one month by +13.93%, over three months by +45.01% and over the past year by +24.01%.
Is MUSA a buy, sell or hold? Murphy USA has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.89. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MUSA.
  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 2
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MUSA price?
Analysts Target Price 558 -1.3%
Murphy USA (MUSA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 16 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 20.0417
P/E Forward = 20.8768
P/S = 0.6152
P/B = 16.2041
P/EG = 1.5097
Revenue TTM = 19.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 855.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.14b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 19.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.69b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.57b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.21b USD (10.64b + Debt 2.69b - CCE 118.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.47 (Ebit TTM 855.8m / Interest Expense TTM 114.5m)
EV/FCF = 23.79x (Enterprise Value 13.21b / FCF TTM 555.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.20% (FCF TTM 555.3m / Enterprise Value 13.21b)
FCF Margin = 2.82% (FCF TTM 555.3m / Revenue TTM 19.68b)
Net Margin = 2.81% (Net Income TTM 553.7m / Revenue TTM 19.68b)
Gross Margin = 5.51% ((Revenue TTM 19.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 5.43% (prev 5.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.72 (Enterprise Value 13.21b / Total Assets 4.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 29.0m / Debt 2.69b)
Taxrate = 22.64% (39.9m / 176.2m)
NOPAT = 662.0m (EBIT 855.8m * (1 - 22.64%))
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 871.1m / Total Current Liabilities 1.05b)
Debt / Equity = 4.08 (Debt 2.69b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 658.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.26 (Net Debt 2.57b / EBITDA 1.14b)
Debt / FCF = 4.63 (Net Debt 2.57b / FCF TTM 555.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 618.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.82% (Net Income 553.7m / Total Assets 4.87b)
RoE = 89.51% (Net Income TTM 553.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 618.6m)
RoCE = 31.05% (EBIT 855.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 618.6m + L.T.Debt 2.14b))
RoIC = 23.78% (NOPAT 662.0m / Invested Capital 2.78b)
WACC = 4.85% (E(10.64b)/V(13.33b) * Re(5.86%) + D(2.69b)/V(13.33b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 5.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -5.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 85.08% ; FCFF base≈481.3m ; Y1≈428.2m ; Y5≈359.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 447.6 (EV 10.84b - Net Debt 2.57b = Equity 8.27b / Shares 18.5m; r=6.0% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -13.62% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -4.87 | EPS CAGR: -0.90% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -75.68 | Revenue CAGR: -8.65% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=9.58 | Chg30d=+25.54% | Revisions=+64% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=7.93 | Chg30d=+8.65% | Revisions=+45% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=32.17 | Chg30d=+27.13% | Revisions=+64% | GrowthEPS=+28.7% | GrowthRev=+13.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=29.22 | Chg30d=+9.00% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=-9.1% | GrowthRev=-1.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +64%