MWA Stock Analysis: Mueller Water Products | NYSE
Specialty Industrial Machinery | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.923m USD | 12M Return: -6.2% | US6247581084 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.5M
EPS Trend: 97.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 96.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Mueller Water Products (NYSE: MWA) manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water, serving municipalities as well as the residential and non-residential construction industries across the United States, Canada, and other international markets. The company operates through two segments: Water Flow Solutions, which provides a range of valves (including gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, and ball valves) for potable and non-potable water systems, along with service brass products; and Water Management Solutions, which offers fire hydrants, pipe repair products (couplings, grips, clamps), water metering systems, leak detection and pipe condition assessment services, machines and tools for installation and maintenance, gas valve products, and intelligent water solutions such as pressure management and network analytics. The company markets its products under numerous brands, including Mueller, Pratt, U.S. Pipe Valve and Hydrant, HYMAX, Krausz, Singer, Hersey, and Echologics.
Founded in 1857 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Mueller Water Products is classified within the GICS Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sub-industry). The business model is largely infrastructure-driven, with demand closely tied to municipal water capital expenditure, repair-and-replacement cycles, and regulatory requirements around water quality and leakage reduction in aging North American water networks.
- Federal infrastructure bill funding accelerates municipal water capex spending
- Steel and brass raw material costs squeeze product gross margins
- Smart metering and leak detection drive Water Management segment growth
| Net Income: 222.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.80 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 59.93% < 20% (prev 49.75%; Δ 10.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 237.7m > Net Income 222.2m |
| Net Debt (-14.1m) to EBITDA (345.3m): -0.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (157.3m) vs 12m ago -0.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.86% > 18% (prev 34.90%; Δ 2.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 80.32% > 50% (prev 80.74%; Δ -0.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 24.62 > 6 (EBIT TTM 295.4m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m) |
| A: 0.45 (Total Current Assets 1.13b - Total Current Liabilities 243.8m) / Total Assets 1.95b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -4.60m / Total Assets 1.95b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 295.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.84b) |
| D: 1.35 (Book Value of Equity 1.12b / Total Liabilities 832.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.46 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 203.2m/212.8m, Revenue 1.48b/1.40b) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 34.90% / 37.86%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 1.48b / 1.40b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 222.2m - CFO 237.7m) / TA 1.95b) |
| Beneish M = -3.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 24.94 with a total of 540,429 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.35%, over one month by +0.51%, over three months by -3.00% and over the past year by -6.23%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 24.00 (which is 3.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Mueller Water Products has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MWA.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 31 | 24.3% |
P/E Trailing = 17.8227
P/E Forward = 15.3374
P/S = 2.6522
P/B = 3.5241
P/EG = 1.0218
Revenue TTM = 1.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 295.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 345.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 451.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.60m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 481.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 28.3m
Net Debt = -14.1m USD (calculated: Debt 481.2m - CCE 495.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.91b USD (3.92b + Debt 481.2m - CCE 495.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 24.62 (Ebit TTM 295.4m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m)
EV/FCF = 21.77x (Enterprise Value 3.91b / FCF TTM 179.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.59% (FCF TTM 179.6m / Enterprise Value 3.91b)
FCF Margin = 12.14% (FCF TTM 179.6m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Net Margin = 15.02% (Net Income TTM 222.2m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Gross Margin = 37.86% ((Revenue TTM 1.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 919.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.35% (prev 37.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.00 (Enterprise Value 3.91b / Total Assets 1.95b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.49% (Interest Expense 12.0m / Debt 481.2m)
Taxrate = 21.48% (60.8m / 283.0m)
NOPAT = 231.9m (EBIT 295.4m * (1 - 21.48%))
Current Ratio = 4.64 (Total Current Assets 1.13b / Total Current Liabilities 243.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 481.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.04 (Net Debt -14.1m / EBITDA 345.3m)
Debt / FCF = -0.08 (Net Debt -14.1m / FCF TTM 179.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.06% (Net Income 222.2m / Total Assets 1.95b)
RoE = 21.21% (Net Income TTM 222.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.05b)
RoCE = 19.71% (EBIT 295.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.05b + L.T.Debt 451.3m))
RoIC = 14.17% (NOPAT 231.9m / Invested Capital 1.64b)
WACC = 7.34% (E(3.92b)/V(4.40b) * Re(8.0%) + D(481.2m)/V(4.40b) * Rd(2.49%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 68.71 | Cagr: 0.17%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.94% ; FCFF base≈176.9m ; Y1≈183.4m ; Y5≈206.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 20.57 (EV 3.20b - Net Debt -14.1m = Equity 3.21b / Shares 156.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 3.88% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.61 | EPS CAGR: 37.65% | SUE: 3.39 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 96.12 | Revenue CAGR: 7.48% | SUE: 0.48 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.63% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.57 | Chg30d=+6.26% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+19.8% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.60 | Chg30d=+2.30% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+2.2% | GrowthRev=+4.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=11, down=1)