MWA Stock Analysis: Mueller Water Products | NYSE

Valves, Hydrants, Metering, Leak Detection

Total Rating 52

Safety 92

Buy Signal -0.58

Specialty Industrial Machinery
Industry Rotation: +6.4

Market Cap: 3.40B
Avg Turnover: 33.5M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility29.4%

VaR 5^th Pctl4.74%

VaR vs Median-2.14%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.72

Rel. Str. IBD14.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group29.6

Character TTM

Beta0.529

Beta Downside0.408

Hurst Exponent0.545

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD29.69%

CAGR/Max DD0.68

CAGR/Mean DD2.51

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 37.65%
EPS Trend: 97.6%

Last SUE: 3.39
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 7.48%
Rev. Trend: 96.1%

Last SUE: 0.48
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -3.0% 31

Feb +6.5% 25

Mar -0.7% 5

Apr -0.4% 7

May -1.1% 18

Jun -0.7% 8

Jul +1.3% 19

Aug +0.1% 5

Sep -3.2% 32

Oct -1.5% 15

Nov +4.2% 27

Dec -0.5% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MWA Mueller Water Products

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE: MWA) is a U.S.-based manufacturer that produces and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water. The company serves municipalities as well as the residential and non-residential construction industries across the United States, Canada, and international markets. Founded in 1857 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Mueller operates two main divisions, Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions.

The Water Flow Solutions segment focuses on water control products, including iron gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, and ball valves used in potable and non-potable water distribution, water treatment, and industrial applications, along with service brass products. The Water Management Solutions segment provides dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants, pipe repair products (couplings, grips, clamps), residential and fire protection water metering systems, leak detection and pipe condition assessment products and services, machines and tools for tapping and drilling, gas valve products, and intelligent water solutions such as pressure control valves, advanced pressure management, and network analytics.

Muellers products are sold under numerous established brands, including Mueller, Pratt, Hydro Gate, Jones, Singer, Hersey, U.S. Pipe Valve and Hydrant, Echologics, and Sentryx. The company sits in the Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sub-industry, and serves a regulated, infrastructure-driven market where demand is largely tied to municipal capital spending, water main replacement cycles, fire hydrant specifications, and broader North American investment in aging water networks.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Federal infrastructure bill fuels municipal water main replacement demand
Smart metering adoption lifts Water Management Solutions growth and margins
Brass and iron input cost inflation pressures product gross margins

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0

Net Income: 222.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.80 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 59.93% < 20% (prev 49.75%; Δ 10.18% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 237.7m > Net Income 222.2m
Net Debt (-14.1m) to EBITDA (345.3m): -0.04 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.64 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (157.3m) vs 12m ago -0.06% < -2%
Gross Margin: 37.86% > 18% (prev 34.90%; Δ 2.96% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 80.32% > 50% (prev 80.74%; Δ -0.42% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 24.62 > 6 (EBIT TTM 295.4m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m)

Altman Z'' 5.46

A: 0.45 (Total Current Assets 1.13b - Total Current Liabilities 243.8m) / Total Assets 1.95b
B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -4.60m / Total Assets 1.95b)
C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 295.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.84b)
D: 1.35 (Book Value of Equity 1.12b / Total Liabilities 832.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 5.46 = AAA

Beneish M -3.16

DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 203.2m/212.8m, Revenue 1.48b/1.40b)
GMI: 0.92 (GM 34.90% / 37.86%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.25)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 1.48b / 1.40b)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 222.2m - CFO 237.7m) / TA 1.95b)
Beneish M = -3.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of MWA shares?

As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.56 with a total of 1,544,074 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.28%, over one month by -9.26%, over three months by -12.66% and over the past year by -15.35%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.90 (which is 3.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is MWA a buy, sell or hold?

Mueller Water Products has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MWA.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 0
Hold: 2
Sell: 2
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MWA price?

Analysts Target Price	29.5	36.8%

Mueller Water Products (MWA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 07 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 3.40b (3.40b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 15.3239
P/E Forward = 13.7552
P/S = 2.2966
P/B = 3.0266
P/EG = 0.9165
Revenue TTM = 1.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 295.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 345.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 451.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.60m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 481.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 28.3m
Net Debt = -14.1m USD (calculated: Debt 481.2m - CCE 495.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.38b USD (3.40b + Debt 481.2m - CCE 495.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 24.62 (Ebit TTM 295.4m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m)
EV/FCF = 18.84x (Enterprise Value 3.38b / FCF TTM 179.6m)
FCF Yield = 5.31% (FCF TTM 179.6m / Enterprise Value 3.38b)
FCF Margin = 12.14% (FCF TTM 179.6m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Net Margin = 15.02% (Net Income TTM 222.2m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Gross Margin = 37.86% ((Revenue TTM 1.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 919.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.35% (prev 37.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.73 (Enterprise Value 3.38b / Total Assets 1.95b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.49% (Interest Expense 12.0m / Debt 481.2m)
Taxrate = 21.48% (60.8m / 283.0m)
NOPAT = 231.9m (EBIT 295.4m * (1 - 21.48%))
Current Ratio = 4.64 (Total Current Assets 1.13b / Total Current Liabilities 243.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 481.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.04 (Net Debt -14.1m / EBITDA 345.3m)
Debt / FCF = -0.08 (Net Debt -14.1m / FCF TTM 179.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.06% (Net Income 222.2m / Total Assets 1.95b)
RoE = 21.21% (Net Income TTM 222.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.05b)
RoCE = 19.71% (EBIT 295.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.05b + L.T.Debt 451.3m))
RoIC = 14.17% (NOPAT 231.9m / Invested Capital 1.64b)
WACC = 7.11% (E(3.40b)/V(3.88b) * Re(7.84%) + D(481.2m)/V(3.88b) * Rd(2.49%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 68.71 | Cagr: 0.17%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.94% ; FCFF base≈176.9m ; Y1≈183.4m ; Y5≈206.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 20.57 (EV 3.20b - Net Debt -14.1m = Equity 3.21b / Shares 156.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 3.88% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.61 | EPS CAGR: 37.65% | SUE: 3.39 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 96.12 | Revenue CAGR: 7.48% | SUE: 0.48 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-1.32% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.57 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+19.8% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.59 | Chg30d=-1.04% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+1.1% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=5, down=2)