MWA Stock Analysis: Mueller Water Products | NYSE

Specialty Industrial Machinery | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.929m USD | 12M Return: 1.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Valves, Hydrants, Water Meters, Pipe Repair
Total Rating 48
Safety 87
Buy Signal -0.46
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Industry Rotation: -8.2
Market Cap: 3.93B
Avg Turnover: 31.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility29.8%
VaR 5th Pctl4.72%
VaR vs Median-3.54%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.03
Rel. Str. IBD19.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group31.2
Character TTM
Beta0.477
Beta Downside0.358
Hurst Exponent0.587
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD25.85%
CAGR/Max DD0.64
CAGR/Mean DD1.77
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MWA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.18, "2021-09": 0.12, "2021-12": 0.13, "2022-03": 0.15, "2022-06": 0.19, "2022-09": 0.1, "2022-12": 0.13, "2023-03": 0.14, "2023-06": 0.18, "2023-09": 0.19, "2023-12": 0.13, "2024-03": 0.3, "2024-06": 0.32, "2024-09": 0.22, "2024-12": 0.25, "2025-03": 0.34, "2025-06": 0.34, "2025-09": 0.38, "2025-12": 0.29, "2026-03": 0.4,
EPS CAGR: 41.01%
EPS Trend: 97.6%
Last SUE: 0.55
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MWA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 310.5, 2021-09: 295.6, 2021-12: 272.3, 2022-03: 310.5, 2022-06: 333.2, 2022-09: 331.4, 2022-12: 314.8, 2023-03: 332.9, 2023-06: 326.6, 2023-09: 301.4, 2023-12: 256.4, 2024-03: 353.4, 2024-06: 356.7, 2024-09: 348.2, 2024-12: 304.3, 2025-03: 364.3, 2025-06: 380.3, 2025-09: 380.8, 2025-12: 318.2, 2026-03: 384.4,
Rev. CAGR: 6.31%
Rev. Trend: 89.1%
Last SUE: 0.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -3.0% 27
Feb +6.2% 19
Mar -1.8% 12
Apr -1.4% 14
May -1.9% 24
Jun -0.9% 14
Jul +2.3% 22
Aug +0.3% 18
Sep -3.8% 28
Oct -0.8% 9
Nov +4.5% 21
Dec +0.3% 5

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MWA Mueller Water Products

Mueller Water Products (NYSE: MWA) manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water, serving municipalities as well as the residential and non-residential construction industries across the United States, Canada, and other international markets. The company operates through two segments: Water Flow Solutions, which provides a range of valves (including gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, and ball valves) for potable and non-potable water systems, along with service brass products; and Water Management Solutions, which offers fire hydrants, pipe repair products (couplings, grips, clamps), water metering systems, leak detection and pipe condition assessment services, machines and tools for installation and maintenance, gas valve products, and intelligent water solutions such as pressure management and network analytics. The company markets its products under numerous brands, including Mueller, Pratt, U.S. Pipe Valve and Hydrant, HYMAX, Krausz, Singer, Hersey, and Echologics.

Founded in 1857 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Mueller Water Products is classified within the GICS Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sub-industry). The business model is largely infrastructure-driven, with demand closely tied to municipal water capital expenditure, repair-and-replacement cycles, and regulatory requirements around water quality and leakage reduction in aging North American water networks.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Federal infrastructure bill funding accelerates municipal water capex spending
  • Steel and brass raw material costs squeeze product gross margins
  • Smart metering and leak detection drive Water Management segment growth
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 207.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.02 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 56.89% < 20% (prev 47.72%; Δ 9.17% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 199.3m > Net Income 207.4m
Net Debt (59.7m) to EBITDA (336.3m): 0.18 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.57 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (157.4m) vs 12m ago -0.06% < -2%
Gross Margin: 37.58% > 18% (prev 34.46%; Δ 3.12% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 82.34% > 50% (prev 82.22%; Δ 0.12% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.84 > 6 (EBIT TTM 287.3m / Interest Expense TTM 16.1m)
Altman Z'' 5.24
A: 0.44 (Total Current Assets 1.07b - Total Current Liabilities 233.3m) / Total Assets 1.88b
B: -0.04 (Retained Earnings -71.9m / Total Assets 1.88b)
C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 287.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.78b)
D: 1.32 (Book Value of Equity 1.07b / Total Liabilities 814.0m)
Altman-Z'' = 5.24 = AAA
Beneish M -3.16
DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 208.6m/221.6m, Revenue 1.46b/1.37b)
GMI: 0.92 (GM 34.46% / 37.58%)
AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.26)
SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.46b / 1.37b)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 207.4m - CFO 199.3m) / TA 1.88b)
Beneish M = -3.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of MWA shares?

As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 24.75 with a total of 787,021 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.18%, over one month by -2.44%, over three months by -14.55% and over the past year by +1.39%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 23.90 (which is 3.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is MWA a buy, sell or hold?

Mueller Water Products has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MWA.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MWA price?
Analysts Target Price 31 25.3%
Mueller Water Products (MWA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 03 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.93b (3.93b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 19.0227
P/E Forward = 15.6986
P/S = 2.6843
P/B = 3.6692
P/EG = 1.0462
Revenue TTM = 1.46b USD
EBIT TTM = 287.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 336.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 451.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.40m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 480.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 28.3m
Net Debt = 59.7m USD (calculated: Debt 480.7m - CCE 421.0m)
Enterprise Value = 3.99b USD (3.93b + Debt 480.7m - CCE 421.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.84 (Ebit TTM 287.3m / Interest Expense TTM 16.1m)
EV/FCF = 28.25x (Enterprise Value 3.99b / FCF TTM 141.2m)
FCF Yield = 3.54% (FCF TTM 141.2m / Enterprise Value 3.99b)
FCF Margin = 9.65% (FCF TTM 141.2m / Revenue TTM 1.46b)
Net Margin = 14.17% (Net Income TTM 207.4m / Revenue TTM 1.46b)
Gross Margin = 37.58% ((Revenue TTM 1.46b - Cost of Revenue TTM 913.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.59% (prev 37.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.12 (Enterprise Value 3.99b / Total Assets 1.88b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.35% (Interest Expense 16.1m / Debt 480.7m)
Taxrate = 24.64% (67.8m / 275.2m)
NOPAT = 216.5m (EBIT 287.3m * (1 - 24.64%))
Current Ratio = 4.57 (Total Current Assets 1.07b / Total Current Liabilities 233.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 480.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.07b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.18 (Net Debt 59.7m / EBITDA 336.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.42 (Net Debt 59.7m / FCF TTM 141.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 999.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.67% (Net Income 207.4m / Total Assets 1.88b)
RoE = 20.74% (Net Income TTM 207.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 999.9m)
RoCE = 19.80% (EBIT 287.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 999.9m + L.T.Debt 451.0m))
RoIC = 13.71% (NOPAT 216.5m / Invested Capital 1.58b)
WACC = 7.10% (E(3.93b)/V(4.41b) * Re(7.66%) + D(480.7m)/V(4.41b) * Rd(3.35%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 43.53 | Cagr: 0.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈161.6m ; Y1≈141.7m ; Y5≈114.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 11.37 (EV 1.84b - Net Debt 59.7m = Equity 1.78b / Shares 156.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.58 | EPS CAGR: 41.01% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.09 | Revenue CAGR: 6.31% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.48 | Chg30d=-0.10% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+12.7% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.57 | Chg30d=-0.79% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+6.2% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +79% (up=11, down=0)