(MWA) Mueller Water Products - Overview
Stock: Valves, Hydrants, Meters, Pipe-Repair, Leak-Detection
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.05% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.85% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.99% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 25.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.22 |
| Alpha | -5.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.917 |
| Beta Downside | 0.633 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 25.85% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.18 |
Description: MWA Mueller Water Products January 12, 2026
Mueller Water Products (NYSE: MWA) designs, manufactures, and markets a broad portfolio of water-related hardware and services for municipal, residential, and commercial customers across the United States, Canada, and select international markets. The company operates two primary segments: Water Flow Solutions, which supplies a range of valves (iron gate, butterfly, ball, etc.) and service-brass components for potable and non-potable water distribution; and Water Management Solutions, which offers fire hydrants, pipe-repair fittings, metering devices, leak-detection systems, gas valves, and “intelligent water” technologies such as pressure-control valves and network analytics.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023) show revenue of roughly $1.2 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 13 %, and a backlog exceeding $2 billion-indicating a solid order pipeline. The business is sensitive to macro-level drivers: the U.S. bipartisan water-infrastructure bill (≈ $550 billion over five years) is expected to boost demand for replacement of aging pipes and advanced monitoring solutions, while tightening climate-risk regulations are accelerating adoption of leak-detection and pressure-management technologies. Additionally, the sector’s average capital-expenditure growth rate of ~4 % YoY provides a baseline growth floor for MWA’s addressable market.
For a deeper, data-driven view of MWA’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: 191.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 51.64% < 20% (prev 45.67%; Δ 5.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 371.2m > Net Income 191.8m |
| Net Debt (20.1m) to EBITDA (228.0m): 0.09 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (156.3m) vs 12m ago -0.36% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.02% > 18% (prev 0.35%; Δ 3567 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.32% > 50% (prev 80.37%; Δ 1.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.20 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 228.0m / Interest Expense TTM 15.8m) |
Altman Z'' 2.86
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 1.03b - Total Current Liabilities 290.3m) / Total Assets 1.84b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -174.2m / Total Assets 1.84b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 192.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.74b) |
| D: -0.20 (Book Value of Equity -172.6m / Total Liabilities 857.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.86 = A |
Beneish M -3.18
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 211.9m/215.5m, Revenue 1.43b/1.31b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 36.02% / 34.91%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 1.43b / 1.31b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 191.8m - CFO 371.2m) / TA 1.84b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of MWA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.79%, over one month by +18.09%, over three months by +16.92% and over the past year by +6.02%.
Is MWA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MWA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 27.7 | -5.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 27.7 | -5.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 34.9 | 19.5% |
MWA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 19.4175
P/S = 2.9605
P/B = 4.2988
P/EG = 1.2945
Revenue TTM = 1.43b USD
EBIT TTM = 192.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 228.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 447.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.20m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 451.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = 20.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.25b USD (4.23b + Debt 451.6m - CCE 431.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.20 (Ebit TTM 192.8m / Interest Expense TTM 15.8m)
EV/FCF = 22.95x (Enterprise Value 4.25b / FCF TTM 185.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.36% (FCF TTM 185.3m / Enterprise Value 4.25b)
FCF Margin = 12.96% (FCF TTM 185.3m / Revenue TTM 1.43b)
Net Margin = 13.41% (Net Income TTM 191.8m / Revenue TTM 1.43b)
Gross Margin = 36.02% ((Revenue TTM 1.43b - Cost of Revenue TTM 915.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.76% (prev 37.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.31 (Enterprise Value 4.25b / Total Assets 1.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.04% (Interest Expense 4.70m / Debt 451.6m)
Taxrate = 23.44% (16.1m / 68.7m)
NOPAT = 147.6m (EBIT 192.8m * (1 - 23.44%))
Current Ratio = 3.54 (Total Current Assets 1.03b / Total Current Liabilities 290.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.46 (Debt 451.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 981.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.09 (Net Debt 20.1m / EBITDA 228.0m)
Debt / FCF = 0.11 (Net Debt 20.1m / FCF TTM 185.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 917.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.04% (Net Income 191.8m / Total Assets 1.84b)
RoE = 20.90% (Net Income TTM 191.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 917.8m)
RoCE = 14.12% (EBIT 192.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 917.8m + L.T.Debt 447.5m))
RoIC = 10.89% (NOPAT 147.6m / Invested Capital 1.36b)
WACC = 8.48% (E(4.23b)/V(4.68b) * Re(9.30%) + D(451.6m)/V(4.68b) * Rd(1.04%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.17% ; FCFF base≈187.4m ; Y1≈197.8m ; Y5≈233.3m
Fair Price DCF = 23.60 (EV 3.71b - Net Debt 20.1m = Equity 3.69b / Shares 156.4m; r=8.48% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 6.08% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 41.44 | EPS CAGR: -44.17% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 56.33 | Revenue CAGR: 9.36% | SUE: 1.22 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=+0.012 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+6.9% | Growth Revenue=+2.7%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.51 | Chg30d=+0.012 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+7.9% | Growth Revenue=+4.1%