NCLH Stock Analysis: Norwegian Cruise Line | NYSE
Travel Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.122m USD | 12M Return: -37% | BMG667211046 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 307M
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 95.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. is a global cruise operator headquartered in Miami, Florida, founded in 1966. The company operates itineraries across North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and other international regions, with destinations spanning Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, Alaska, and Hawaiian inter-island routes.
Beyond core cruise voyages, the company bundles onboard amenities and pre/post-trip services, including accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casinos, retail shopping, entertainment, shore excursions, air transportation, and hotel packages. It markets these offerings under three distinct brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises, allowing it to serve different price points and customer segments within the leisure travel market.
The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry. The cruise business model is capital intensive, relying on large ship-based fixed assets, and is closely tied to discretionary consumer spending, tourism trends, and seasonal travel demand patterns.
- Caribbean and Alaska booking demand drives yield growth
- Fuel costs and currency volatility pressure operating margins
- New ship deliveries expand capacity and onboard revenue per passenger
| Net Income: 760.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.46 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -49.78% < 20% (prev -54.55%; Δ 4.77% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 2.14b > Net Income 760.8m |
| Net Debt (15.5b) to EBITDA (2.75b): 5.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (463.9m) vs 12m ago 4.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.46% > 18% (prev 41.35%; Δ 1.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.53% > 50% (prev 44.27%; Δ 0.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.83 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.53b / Interest Expense TTM 835.7m) |
| A: -0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.27b - Total Current Liabilities 6.32b) / Total Assets 24.0b |
| B: -0.22 (Retained Earnings -5.24b / Total Assets 24.0b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 1.53b / Avg Total Assets 22.8b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 2.57b / Total Liabilities 21.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.52 = D |
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 277.0m/265.8m, Revenue 10.2b/9.56b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 41.35% / 42.46%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 10.2b / 9.56b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 760.8m - CFO 2.14b) / TA 24.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.05 with a total of 25,654,210 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.66%, over one month by -2.21%, over three months by -20.07% and over the past year by -37.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.30 (which is 5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Norwegian Cruise Line has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.70. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NCLH.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 17
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20.1 | 33.4% |
P/E Trailing = 9.1775
P/E Forward = 8.5179
P/S = 0.7014
P/B = 2.5308
P/EG = 1.1845
Revenue TTM = 10.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.53b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.75b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.14b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 637.2m
Net Debt = 15.5b USD (calculated: Debt 15.7b - CCE 218.1m)
Enterprise Value = 22.6b USD (7.12b + Debt 15.7b - CCE 218.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.83 (Ebit TTM 1.53b / Interest Expense TTM 835.7m)
EV/FCF = -19.60x (Enterprise Value 22.6b / FCF TTM -1.15b)
FCF Yield = -5.10% (FCF TTM -1.15b / Enterprise Value 22.6b)
FCF Margin = -11.34% (FCF TTM -1.15b / Revenue TTM 10.2b)
Net Margin = 7.49% (Net Income TTM 760.8m / Revenue TTM 10.2b)
Gross Margin = 42.46% ((Revenue TTM 10.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.84b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.91% (prev 40.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 22.6b / Total Assets 24.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.33% (Interest Expense 835.7m / Debt 15.7b)
Taxrate = 1.60% (12.4m / 773.1m)
NOPAT = 1.50b (EBIT 1.53b * (1 - 1.60%))
Current Ratio = 0.20 (Total Current Assets 1.27b / Total Current Liabilities 6.32b)
Debt / Equity = 6.09 (Debt 15.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.57b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.62 (Net Debt 15.5b / EBITDA 2.75b)
Debt / FCF = -13.42 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 15.5b / FCF TTM -1.15b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.34% (Net Income 760.8m / Total Assets 24.0b)
RoE = 32.35% (Net Income TTM 760.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.35b)
RoCE = 9.40% (EBIT 1.53b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.35b + L.T.Debt 13.9b))
RoIC = 8.07% (NOPAT 1.50b / Invested Capital 18.6b)
WACC = 7.12% (E(7.12b)/V(22.8b) * Re(11.25%) + D(15.7b)/V(22.8b) * Rd(5.33%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 11.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -20.91 | Cagr: 3.32%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.15b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.61 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 95.11 | Revenue CAGR: 7.26% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.91 | Chg30d=+1.72% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.54 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-27.1% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.66 | Chg30d=-2.24% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+7.9% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)