(NCLH) Norwegian Cruise Line - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Travel Services | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 7.125m USD | Total Return: -11.8% in 12m
Industry Rotation: -9.1
Avg Turnover: 362M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 89.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (6.3) with thin interest coverage (1.6)
High Debt while negative Cash Flow
Altman Z'' -1.99 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a global cruise operator managing three distinct brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. Headquartered in Miami, the company provides diverse itineraries across all major continents, including specialized inter-island travel in Hawaii. Its business model relies on a mix of ticket sales and onboard revenue generated through dining, casinos, retail, and shore excursions.
The cruise industry is characterized by high capital intensity due to the significant costs associated with shipbuilding and maintenance. Operators often utilize a multi-brand strategy to target different market segments, ranging from contemporary family-oriented travel to the ultra-luxury and premium niches. Investors can further examine these market segments and historical performance metrics on ValueRay.
NCLH integrates its core cruise offerings with supplemental travel services, such as air transportation and pre- or post-voyage hotel packages. This vertical integration allows the company to capture a larger share of the total travel expenditure while streamlining the logistics for its international passenger base.
- Yield and occupancy growth across premium and luxury brands drive revenue
- Elevated fuel prices and labor costs compress operating margins
- High debt leverage increases sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations
- Resilience in high-end consumer spending supports premium ticket pricing
- Environmental regulations and carbon emissions targets impact long-term capital expenditure
| Net Income: 568.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -48.94% < 20% (prev -52.56%; Δ 3.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 2.22b > Net Income 568.2m |
| Net Debt (14.97b) to EBITDA (2.38b): 6.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (466.1m) vs 12m ago 5.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 43.05% > 18% (prev 0.40%; Δ 4.26k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.44% > 50% (prev 44.09%; Δ 0.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.60 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.38b / Interest Expense TTM 833.2m) |
| A: -0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.31b - Total Current Liabilities 6.22b) / Total Assets 23.79b |
| B: -0.23 (Retained Earnings -5.46b / Total Assets 23.79b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 1.33b / Avg Total Assets 22.57b) |
| D: -0.27 (Book Value of Equity -5.79b / Total Liabilities 21.36b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.99 = D |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 277.1m/270.5m, Revenue 10.03b/9.42b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 43.05% / 40.47%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 10.03b / 9.42b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 568.2m - CFO 2.22b) / TA 23.79b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.19%, over one month by -20.88%, over three months by -34.06% and over the past year by -11.78%.
- StrongBuy: 13
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 21.3 | 32.8% |
P/E Forward = 9.2336
P/S = 0.7103
P/B = 3.2251
P/EG = 0.7831
Revenue TTM = 10.03b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.33b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.38b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.98b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.18b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.15b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14.97b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 22.10b USD (7.13b + Debt 15.15b - CCE 185.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.60 (Ebit TTM 1.33b / Interest Expense TTM 833.2m)
EV/FCF = -23.28x (Enterprise Value 22.10b / FCF TTM -949.1m)
FCF Yield = -4.30% (FCF TTM -949.1m / Enterprise Value 22.10b)
FCF Margin = -9.46% (FCF TTM -949.1m / Revenue TTM 10.03b)
Net Margin = 5.66% (Net Income TTM 568.2m / Revenue TTM 10.03b)
Gross Margin = 43.05% ((Revenue TTM 10.03b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.71b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.89% (prev 41.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 22.10b / Total Assets 23.79b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 166.0m / Debt 15.15b)
Taxrate = 2.78% (2.99m / 107.7m)
NOPAT = 1.29b (EBIT 1.33b * (1 - 2.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.31b / Total Current Liabilities 6.22b)
Debt / Equity = 6.23 (Debt 15.15b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.29 (Net Debt 14.97b / EBITDA 2.38b)
Debt / FCF = -15.77 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 14.97b / FCF TTM -949.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.52% (Net Income 568.2m / Total Assets 23.79b)
RoE = 27.04% (Net Income TTM 568.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.10b)
RoCE = 8.27% (EBIT 1.33b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.10b + L.T.Debt 13.98b))
RoIC = 7.78% (NOPAT 1.29b / Invested Capital 16.61b)
WACC = 4.73% (E(7.13b)/V(22.28b) * Re(12.54%) + D(15.15b)/V(22.28b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 12.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 24.44 | Cagr: 4.15%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -949.1m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.41 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 89.65 | Revenue CAGR: 9.99% | SUE: -0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-29.07% | Revisions=-78% | Analysts=16
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.89 | Chg30d=-27.31% | Revisions=-78% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.65 | Chg30d=-24.73% | Revisions=-83% | GrowthEPS=-21.6% | GrowthRev=+3.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.07 | Chg30d=-17.83% | Revisions=-84% | GrowthEPS=+25.1% | GrowthRev=+7.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -84%