NCLH Stock Analysis: Norwegian Cruise Line | NYSE
Travel Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.752m USD | 12M Return: -1.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 394M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 89.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a Miami-based cruise company founded in 1966 that operates itineraries across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and other international regions. Destinations include Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, Alaska, and inter-island Hawaii. Beyond sailings, the company offers accommodations, dining, bars and lounges, spas, casinos, retail shops, entertainment, shore excursions, and air-and-hotel packages. It serves passengers through three brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. The company trades on the NYSE and is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector, specifically the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry.
The cruise business model typically generates revenue from ticket sales as well as onboard spending across food, beverage, shore excursions, and casino activities, with profitability heavily tied to ship occupancy and load factor. Operating under multiple brands allows NCLH to target different customer segments across the contemporary, premium, and luxury tiers of the cruise market.
- Caribbean and Alaska booking demand lifts net yield growth
- Fuel cost volatility pressures adjusted EBITDA margins
- Elevated net debt leverage restricts share buyback capacity
- Premium Regent and Oceania brands outpace mainline revenue
| Net Income: 568.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -48.94% < 20% (prev -52.56%; Δ 3.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 2.22b > Net Income 568.2m |
| Net Debt (15.6b) to EBITDA (2.38b): 6.56 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (466.1m) vs 12m ago 5.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 43.05% > 18% (prev 40.47%; Δ 2.58% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.44% > 50% (prev 44.09%; Δ 0.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.60 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.33b / Interest Expense TTM 833.2m) |
| A: -0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.31b - Total Current Liabilities 6.22b) / Total Assets 23.8b |
| B: -0.23 (Retained Earnings -5.46b / Total Assets 23.8b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 1.33b / Avg Total Assets 22.6b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 2.43b / Total Liabilities 21.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.59 = D |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 277.1m/270.5m, Revenue 10.0b/9.42b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 40.47% / 43.05%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 10.0b / 9.42b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 568.2m - CFO 2.22b) / TA 23.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.11 with a total of 16,272,351 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.62%, over one month by +14.45%, over three months by +6.66% and over the past year by -1.48%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 19.90 (which is 5.7% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Norwegian Cruise Line has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.91. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NCLH.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 21.3 | 1% |
P/E Trailing = 17.129
P/E Forward = 11.9048
P/S = 0.9721
P/B = 4.0106
P/EG = 1.0093
Revenue TTM = 10.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.33b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.38b USD
Long Term Debt = 14.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.18b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 637.2m
Net Debt = 15.6b USD (calculated: Debt 15.8b - CCE 185.0m)
Enterprise Value = 25.4b USD (9.75b + Debt 15.8b - CCE 185.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.60 (Ebit TTM 1.33b / Interest Expense TTM 833.2m)
EV/FCF = -26.72x (Enterprise Value 25.4b / FCF TTM -949.1m)
FCF Yield = -3.74% (FCF TTM -949.1m / Enterprise Value 25.4b)
FCF Margin = -9.46% (FCF TTM -949.1m / Revenue TTM 10.0b)
Net Margin = 5.66% (Net Income TTM 568.2m / Revenue TTM 10.0b)
Gross Margin = 43.05% ((Revenue TTM 10.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.71b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.89% (prev 41.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 25.4b / Total Assets 23.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.28% (Interest Expense 833.2m / Debt 15.8b)
Taxrate = 1.66% (9.61m / 577.8m)
NOPAT = 1.31b (EBIT 1.33b * (1 - 1.66%))
Current Ratio = 0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.31b / Total Current Liabilities 6.22b)
Debt / Equity = 6.49 (Debt 15.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.56 (Net Debt 15.6b / EBITDA 2.38b)
Debt / FCF = -16.44 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 15.6b / FCF TTM -949.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.52% (Net Income 568.2m / Total Assets 23.8b)
RoE = 27.04% (Net Income TTM 568.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.10b)
RoCE = 8.27% (EBIT 1.33b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.10b + L.T.Debt 14.0b))
RoIC = 7.04% (NOPAT 1.31b / Invested Capital 18.6b)
WACC = 7.99% (E(9.75b)/V(25.5b) * Re(12.53%) + D(15.8b)/V(25.5b) * Rd(5.28%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 12.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 24.44 | Cagr: 4.15%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -949.1m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.66 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 89.65 | Revenue CAGR: 9.99% | SUE: -0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.89 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=-82% | Analysts=20
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.66 | Chg30d=+0.45% | Revisions=-85% | GrowthEPS=-21.5% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.02 | Chg30d=+0.30% | Revisions=-77% | GrowthEPS=+22.2% | GrowthRev=+6.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -85%