NFG Stock Analysis: National Fuel Gas | NYSE

Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Pipeline Transportation, Underground Storage

Total Rating 50

Safety 84

Buy Signal -0.52

Oil & Gas Integrated
Industry Rotation: -1.7

Market Cap: 7.84B
Avg Turnover: 49.3M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility20.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl3.42%

VaR vs Median2.32%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.27

Rel. Str. IBD27.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group50

Character TTM

Beta-0.169

Beta Downside-0.021

Hurst Exponent0.463

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD20.93%

CAGR/Max DD0.94

CAGR/Mean DD3.39

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 20.61%
EPS Trend: 93.5%

Last SUE: 0.65
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 8.61%
Rev. Trend: 78.0%

Last SUE: -0.36
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -1.7% 8

Feb +3.4% 48

Mar +4.7% 57

Apr -1.5% 42

May +2.2% 23

Jun -0.3% 10

Jul +0.1% 10

Aug -0.0% 2

Sep -0.3% 0

Oct -1.4% 12

Nov +0.8% 26

Dec -2.0% 15

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: NFG National Fuel Gas

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is a diversified energy company headquartered in Williamsville, New York, incorporated in 1902 and listed on the NYSE. It operates through three reportable segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility.

The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, also providing gathering services to Seneca Resources. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation through an integrated pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York, along with underground storage services for utilities, industrial customers, and power producers in New York State. The Utility segment sells natural gas and provides distribution services to retail customers in western New York (Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown) and northwestern Pennsylvania (Erie and Sharon).

NFGs business model spans the full natural gas value chain, from production and gathering through interstate transportation and storage to regulated retail distribution. The Appalachian basin, where its upstream operations are concentrated, is one of the largest natural gas-producing regions in the United States, supporting both its production and midstream activities. NFG is classified under the GICS Gas Utilities sub-industry within the broader Utilities sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Appalachian natural gas prices drive upstream segment margins
FERC pipeline tariffs anchor midstream storage revenue
Winter weather and rate cases shape utility earnings

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.5

Net Income: 675.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.07 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 44.32% < 20% (prev -22.06%; Δ 66.38% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 1.27b > Net Income 675.3m
Net Debt (2.33b) to EBITDA (1.52b): 1.53 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.20 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (94.4m) vs 12m ago 3.63% < -2%
Gross Margin: 49.00% > 18% (prev 45.39%; Δ 3.61% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 26.50% > 50% (prev 25.85%; Δ 0.65% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.01 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 148.6m)

Altman Z'' 2.83

A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.61b - Total Current Liabilities 504.2m) / Total Assets 10.5b
B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 2.43b / Total Assets 10.5b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.04b / Avg Total Assets 9.45b)
D: 0.60 (Book Value of Equity 3.92b / Total Liabilities 6.53b)
Altman-Z'' = 2.83 = A

Beneish M -3.07

DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 255.4m/251.6m, Revenue 2.50b/2.18b)
GMI: 0.93 (GM 45.39% / 49.00%)
AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.07)
SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 2.50b / 2.18b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 675.3m - CFO 1.27b) / TA 10.5b)
Beneish M = -3.07 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of NFG shares?

As of August 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 82.46 with a total of 405,797 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.78%, over one month by -0.04%, over three months by +4.02% and over the past year by -2.51%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 78.50 (which is 4.8% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).

Is NFG a buy, sell or hold?

National Fuel Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NFG.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 0
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NFG price?

Analysts Target Price	92	11.6%

National Fuel Gas (NFG) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 24 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 7.84b (7.84b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.4875
P/E Forward = 10.2669
P/S = 3.1187
P/B = 1.998
P/EG = 1.5526
Revenue TTM = 2.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.04b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.52b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.57b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 450.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.57b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.33b USD (calculated: Debt 3.57b - CCE 1.24b)
Enterprise Value = 10.2b USD (7.84b + Debt 3.57b - CCE 1.24b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.01 (Ebit TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 148.6m)
EV/FCF = 45.76x (Enterprise Value 10.2b / FCF TTM 222.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.19% (FCF TTM 222.3m / Enterprise Value 10.2b)
FCF Margin = 8.88% (FCF TTM 222.3m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Net Margin = 26.97% (Net Income TTM 675.3m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Gross Margin = 49.00% ((Revenue TTM 2.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.06% (prev 43.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 10.2b / Total Assets 10.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.16% (Interest Expense 148.6m / Debt 3.57b)
Taxrate = 25.42% (230.2m / 905.4m)
NOPAT = 777.2m (EBIT 1.04b * (1 - 25.42%))
Current Ratio = 3.20 (Total Current Assets 1.61b / Total Current Liabilities 504.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.91 (Debt 3.57b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.53 (Net Debt 2.33b / EBITDA 1.52b)
Debt / FCF = 10.49 (Net Debt 2.33b / FCF TTM 222.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.61b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.15% (Net Income 675.3m / Total Assets 10.5b)
RoE = 18.72% (Net Income TTM 675.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.61b)
RoCE = 14.52% (EBIT 1.04b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.61b + L.T.Debt 3.57b))
RoIC = 7.57% (NOPAT 777.2m / Invested Capital 10.3b)
WACC = 4.68% (E(7.84b)/V(11.4b) * Re(5.39%) + D(3.57b)/V(11.4b) * Rd(4.16%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 5.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 54.83 | Cagr: 0.92%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈207.7m ; Y1≈238.1m ; Y5≈350.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 30.94 (EV 5.27b - Net Debt 2.33b = Equity 2.94b / Shares 95.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 93.50 | EPS CAGR: 20.61% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 78.04 | Revenue CAGR: 8.61% | SUE: -0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=2.13 | Chg30d=+0.35% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=7.38 | Chg30d=-0.62% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+6.7% | GrowthRev=+12.8%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=7.52 | Chg30d=-3.41% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+2.0% | GrowthRev=+17.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -7% (up=5, down=6)