NFG Stock Analysis: National Fuel Gas | NYSE
Oil & Gas Integrated | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.248m USD | 12M Return: -9.5% | US6361801011 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 70.8M
EPS Trend: 93.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 78.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company headquartered in Williamsville, New York, operating through three main segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment focuses on the exploration, development, and production of natural gas and oil, and also builds, owns, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region while providing gathering services to Seneca. The Pipeline and Storage segment offers interstate natural gas transportation and storage services through an integrated pipeline system and underground storage fields, primarily serving Pennsylvania, New York, and neighboring markets. The Utility segment sells natural gas to retail customers and provides natural gas utility services in parts of western New York (including Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown) and northwestern Pennsylvania (including Erie and Sharon). Founded in 1902 and publicly listed on the NYSE since 1987, National Fuel Gas is a mid-cap utility in the GICS Gas Utilities sub-industry.
Gas utilities typically operate under regulated rate structures, which can provide stable, predictable revenue but limit upside potential compared to unregulated energy producers. Vertically integrated natural gas companies like NFG, which combine upstream production, midstream transportation, and downstream utility operations, can benefit from operational synergies across the value chain while also facing differing regulatory environments in each business line.
- Appalachian natural gas production volumes drive upstream segment revenue
- FERC pipeline storage rates anchor midstream earnings stability
- New York and Pennsylvania utility rate cases set return on equity
| Net Income: 675.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 44.32% < 20% (prev -22.06%; Δ 66.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 1.27b > Net Income 675.3m |
| Net Debt (2.33b) to EBITDA (1.52b): 1.53 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (94.4m) vs 12m ago 3.63% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 49.00% > 18% (prev 45.39%; Δ 3.61% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.50% > 50% (prev 25.85%; Δ 0.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.01 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 148.6m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.61b - Total Current Liabilities 504.2m) / Total Assets 10.5b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 2.43b / Total Assets 10.5b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.04b / Avg Total Assets 9.45b) |
| D: 0.60 (Book Value of Equity 3.92b / Total Liabilities 6.53b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.83 = A |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 255.4m/251.6m, Revenue 2.50b/2.18b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 45.39% / 49.00%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 2.50b / 2.18b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 675.3m - CFO 1.27b) / TA 10.5b) |
| Beneish M = -3.07 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 78.21 with a total of 838,961 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.56%, over one month by -6.01%, over three months by -0.30% and over the past year by -9.51%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 74.20 (which is 5.1% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
National Fuel Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NFG.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 93 | 18.9% |
P/E Trailing = 10.577
P/E Forward = 9.7943
P/S = 2.8835
P/B = 1.9042
P/EG = 1.5526
Revenue TTM = 2.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.04b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.52b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.57b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 450.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.57b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.33b USD (calculated: Debt 3.57b - CCE 1.24b)
Enterprise Value = 9.58b USD (7.25b + Debt 3.57b - CCE 1.24b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.01 (Ebit TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 148.6m)
EV/FCF = 43.10x (Enterprise Value 9.58b / FCF TTM 222.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.32% (FCF TTM 222.3m / Enterprise Value 9.58b)
FCF Margin = 8.88% (FCF TTM 222.3m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Net Margin = 26.97% (Net Income TTM 675.3m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Gross Margin = 49.00% ((Revenue TTM 2.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.06% (prev 43.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 9.58b / Total Assets 10.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.16% (Interest Expense 148.6m / Debt 3.57b)
Taxrate = 25.42% (230.2m / 905.4m)
NOPAT = 777.2m (EBIT 1.04b * (1 - 25.42%))
Current Ratio = 3.20 (Total Current Assets 1.61b / Total Current Liabilities 504.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.91 (Debt 3.57b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.53 (Net Debt 2.33b / EBITDA 1.52b)
Debt / FCF = 10.49 (Net Debt 2.33b / FCF TTM 222.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.61b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.15% (Net Income 675.3m / Total Assets 10.5b)
RoE = 18.72% (Net Income TTM 675.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.61b)
RoCE = 14.52% (EBIT 1.04b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.61b + L.T.Debt 3.57b))
RoIC = 7.57% (NOPAT 777.2m / Invested Capital 10.3b)
WACC = 4.70% (E(7.25b)/V(10.8b) * Re(5.48%) + D(3.57b)/V(10.8b) * Rd(4.16%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 5.48% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 54.83 | Cagr: 0.92%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈207.7m ; Y1≈238.1m ; Y5≈350.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 30.94 (EV 5.27b - Net Debt 2.33b = Equity 2.94b / Shares 95.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 93.50 | EPS CAGR: 20.61% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 78.04 | Revenue CAGR: 8.61% | SUE: -0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=2.13 | Chg30d=-1.39% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=7.27 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+5.2% | GrowthRev=+11.9%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=7.47 | Chg30d=-2.21% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+2.7% | GrowthRev=+17.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -31% (up=4, down=9)