(NFG) National Fuel Gas - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US6361801011

Natural Gas, Oil, Pipeline, Storage, Utility

Gas Utilities
Market Cap in USD: 7,447m

IPO / Inception: 1987-09-01
12m vs SPY: 4.51%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -5.86%
EPS Trend: -16.0%

Last SUE: 0.12
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -4.69%
Rev. Trend: -16.4%

Last SUE: -1.98
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	2.53%
Yield on Cost 5y	5.71%
Yield CAGR 5y	4.03%
Payout Consistency	99.6%
Payout Ratio	30.9%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	20.5%
Value at Risk 5%th	31.3%
Relative Tail Risk	-6.97%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	1.13
Alpha	22.67
CAGR/Max DD	0.52

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.437
Beta	0.302
Beta Downside	0.469

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	23.26%
Mean DD	7.74%
Median DD	6.80%

Description: NFG National Fuel Gas January 07, 2026

National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE: NFG) is a vertically integrated energy firm operating three core segments: Integrated Upstream & Gathering, Pipeline & Storage, and Utility. The Upstream unit explores and produces natural gas and oil in the Appalachian Basin while also owning gathering infrastructure that serves third-party customers such as Seneca Resources. The Pipeline & Storage business moves gas through a 3.5 billion cubic-feet-per-day (Bcf/d) interstate system in Pennsylvania and New York and offers roughly 100 Bcf of underground storage capacity to utilities, industrial users, and power generators. The Utility segment delivers retail natural-gas service to residential and commercial customers in western New York and north-western Pennsylvania, generating regulated earnings that are relatively insulated from commodity price swings.

Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show adjusted EBITDA of approximately $620 million, a dividend yield near 2.5 %, and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.3×, indicating moderate leverage for a utility-oriented balance sheet. The company’s pipeline assets have a utilization rate of about 78 %, and its storage facilities are typically 85 % full during peak winter months, reflecting strong seasonal demand in the Northeast.

Sector-wide drivers that materially affect NFG include: (1) regional heating demand tied to colder-than-average winters, which boosts both utility sales and storage utilization; (2) New York and Pennsylvania regulatory frameworks that set rate-of-return caps for utilities, providing earnings stability but limiting upside; and (3) the broader transition toward lower-carbon fuels, where natural gas is positioned as a bridge fuel, supporting steady demand despite long-term renewable growth.

For a deeper quantitative dive into NFG’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-rich snapshot.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5

Net Income (518.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 136.1m TTM)

FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.53pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -22.71% (prev -38.05%; Δ 15.34pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.10b > Net Income 518.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (2.79b) to EBITDA (1.31b) ratio: 2.14 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.44 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (91.2m) change vs 12m ago -0.09% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 51.56% (prev 42.05%; Δ 9.51pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 26.62% (prev 23.38%; Δ 3.24pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 5.45 (EBITDA TTM 1.31b / Interest Expense TTM 155.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.42

(A) -0.06 = (Total Current Assets 410.7m - Total Current Liabilities 925.8m) / Total Assets 8.72b

(B) 0.23 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.01b / Total Assets 8.72b

(D) 0.36 = Book Value of Equity 2.04b / Total Liabilities 5.62b

Total Rating: 1.42 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 61.39

1. Piotroski 5.50pt

2. FCF Yield 1.83%

3. FCF Margin 8.26%

4. Debt/Equity 0.92

5. Debt/Ebitda 2.14

6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.29)%

7. RoE 17.90%

8. Rev. Trend -16.39%

9. EPS Trend -16.00%

What is the price of NFG shares?

As of January 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 78.37 with a total of 445,687 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.39%, over one month by -4.50%, over three months by -6.96% and over the past year by +26.24%.

Is NFG a buy, sell or hold?

National Fuel Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold NFG.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 1
Hold: 3
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NFG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	100	27.6%
Analysts Target Price	100	27.6%
ValueRay Target Price	88	12.3%

NFG Fundamental Data Overview January 11, 2026

P/E Trailing = 13.7975
P/E Forward = 9.9502
P/S = 3.2695
P/B = 2.398
P/EG = 2.05
Beta = 0.616
Revenue TTM = 2.27b USD
EBIT TTM = 849.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.31b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.38b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 450.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.83b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.79b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.24b USD (7.45b + Debt 2.83b - CCE 43.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.45 (Ebit TTM 849.9m / Interest Expense TTM 155.8m)
EV/FCF = 54.68x (Enterprise Value 10.24b / FCF TTM 187.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.83% (FCF TTM 187.2m / Enterprise Value 10.24b)
FCF Margin = 8.26% (FCF TTM 187.2m / Revenue TTM 2.27b)
Net Margin = 22.87% (Net Income TTM 518.5m / Revenue TTM 2.27b)
Gross Margin = 51.56% ((Revenue TTM 2.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.10b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.60% (prev 47.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.17 (Enterprise Value 10.24b / Total Assets 8.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.25% (Interest Expense 35.4m / Debt 2.83b)
Taxrate = 28.08% (41.9m / 149.3m)
NOPAT = 611.2m (EBIT 849.9m * (1 - 28.08%))
Current Ratio = 0.44 (Total Current Assets 410.7m / Total Current Liabilities 925.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.92 (Debt 2.83b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.14 (Net Debt 2.79b / EBITDA 1.31b)
Debt / FCF = 14.90 (Net Debt 2.79b / FCF TTM 187.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.09% (Net Income 518.5m / Total Assets 8.72b)
RoE = 17.90% (Net Income TTM 518.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.90b)
RoCE = 16.10% (EBIT 849.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.90b + L.T.Debt 2.38b))
RoIC = 10.63% (NOPAT 611.2m / Invested Capital 5.75b)
WACC = 5.34% (E(7.45b)/V(10.28b) * Re(7.03%) + D(2.83b)/V(10.28b) * Rd(1.25%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 7.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.68%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈166.2m ; Y1≈109.1m ; Y5≈49.8m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.59b - Net Debt 2.79b = -1.20b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -16.00 | EPS CAGR: -5.86% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -16.39 | Revenue CAGR: -4.69% | SUE: -1.98 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.38 | Chg30d=-0.236 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=7.72 | Chg30d=-0.356 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+11.7% | Growth Revenue=+13.1%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=8.51 | Chg30d=+0.019 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+10.3% | Growth Revenue=+25.4%

Additional Sources for NFG Stock

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