NFG Stock Analysis: National Fuel Gas | NYSE
Oil & Gas Integrated | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.509m USD | 12M Return: -1.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 53.4M
EPS Trend: 83.5%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 52.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is a diversified energy company headquartered in Williamsville, New York, incorporated in 1902 and listed on the NYSE. It operates through three reportable segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility.
The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, also providing gathering services to Seneca Resources. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation through an integrated pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York, along with underground storage services for utilities, industrial customers, and power producers in New York State. The Utility segment sells natural gas and provides distribution services to retail customers in western New York (Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown) and northwestern Pennsylvania (Erie and Sharon).
NFGs business model spans the full natural gas value chain, from production and gathering through interstate transportation and storage to regulated retail distribution. The Appalachian basin, where its upstream operations are concentrated, is one of the largest natural gas-producing regions in the United States, supporting both its production and midstream activities. NFG is classified under the GICS Gas Utilities sub-industry within the broader Utilities sector.
- Appalachian natural gas prices drive upstream segment margins
- FERC pipeline tariffs anchor midstream storage revenue
- Winter weather and rate cases shape utility earnings
| Net Income: 686.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -12.51% < 20% (prev -30.68%; Δ 18.17% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 1.28b > Net Income 686.5m |
| Net Debt (2.40b) to EBITDA (1.55b): 1.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (95.7m) vs 12m ago 4.95% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.04% > 18% (prev 43.84%; Δ 6.19% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.38% > 50% (prev 24.40%; Δ 3.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 150.4m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 507.6m - Total Current Liabilities 820.1m) / Total Assets 9.13b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 2.34b / Total Assets 9.13b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Avg Total Assets 8.80b) |
| D: 0.72 (Book Value of Equity 3.82b / Total Liabilities 5.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.19 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.82 (Receivables 367.7m/370.1m, Revenue 2.50b/2.07b) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 43.84% / 50.04%) |
| AQI: -11.87 (AQ_t -0.79 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 2.50b / 2.07b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 686.5m - CFO 1.28b) / TA 9.13b) |
| Beneish M = -10.78 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 79.02 with a total of 523,007 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.96%, over one month by +3.61%, over three months by -16.26% and over the past year by -1.45%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 75.50 (which is 4.5% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
National Fuel Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NFG.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 101.5 | 28.4% |
P/E Trailing = 10.8085
P/E Forward = 8.6655
P/S = 2.9939
P/B = 1.9439
P/EG = 1.5526
Revenue TTM = 2.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.55b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.08b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 341.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.43b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.40b USD (calculated: Debt 2.43b - CCE 26.6m)
Enterprise Value = 9.91b USD (7.51b + Debt 2.43b - CCE 26.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.13 (Ebit TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 150.4m)
EV/FCF = 32.32x (Enterprise Value 9.91b / FCF TTM 306.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.09% (FCF TTM 306.6m / Enterprise Value 9.91b)
FCF Margin = 12.27% (FCF TTM 306.6m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Net Margin = 27.48% (Net Income TTM 686.5m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Gross Margin = 50.04% ((Revenue TTM 2.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.25b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.39% (prev 46.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 9.91b / Total Assets 9.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.20% (Interest Expense 150.4m / Debt 2.43b)
Taxrate = 25.51% (235.1m / 921.5m)
NOPAT = 798.5m (EBIT 1.07b * (1 - 25.51%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 507.6m / Total Current Liabilities 820.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.63 (Debt 2.43b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.55 (Net Debt 2.40b / EBITDA 1.55b)
Debt / FCF = 7.83 (Net Debt 2.40b / FCF TTM 306.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.37b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.80% (Net Income 686.5m / Total Assets 9.13b)
RoE = 20.37% (Net Income TTM 686.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.37b)
RoCE = 19.65% (EBIT 1.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.37b + L.T.Debt 2.08b))
RoIC = 9.26% (NOPAT 798.5m / Invested Capital 8.62b)
WACC = 5.36% (E(7.51b)/V(9.93b) * Re(5.60%) + D(2.43b)/V(9.93b) * Rd(6.20%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 5.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -15.56 | Cagr: 1.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈212.0m ; Y1≈243.0m ; Y5≈357.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 31.38 (EV 5.38b - Net Debt 2.40b = Equity 2.98b / Shares 95.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 83.45 | EPS CAGR: 16.38% | SUE: -1.14 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 52.21 | Revenue CAGR: 4.98% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.42 | Chg30d=-3.89% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=7.41 | Chg30d=-1.10% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+7.2% | GrowthRev=+13.7%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=7.85 | Chg30d=-2.61% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+5.9% | GrowthRev=+17.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -53% (up=2, down=10)