(NFG) National Fuel Gas - Overview
Stock: Natural Gas, Oil, Pipeline, Storage, Utility
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.53% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.76% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.03% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 23.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.21% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.87 |
| Alpha | 13.75 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.291 |
| Beta Downside | 0.451 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 19.33% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.91 |
Description: NFG National Fuel Gas January 07, 2026
National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE: NFG) is a vertically integrated energy firm operating three core segments: Integrated Upstream & Gathering, Pipeline & Storage, and Utility. The Upstream unit explores and produces natural gas and oil in the Appalachian Basin while also owning gathering infrastructure that serves third-party customers such as Seneca Resources. The Pipeline & Storage business moves gas through a 3.5 billion cubic-feet-per-day (Bcf/d) interstate system in Pennsylvania and New York and offers roughly 100 Bcf of underground storage capacity to utilities, industrial users, and power generators. The Utility segment delivers retail natural-gas service to residential and commercial customers in western New York and north-western Pennsylvania, generating regulated earnings that are relatively insulated from commodity price swings.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show adjusted EBITDA of approximately $620 million, a dividend yield near 2.5 %, and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.3×, indicating moderate leverage for a utility-oriented balance sheet. The company’s pipeline assets have a utilization rate of about 78 %, and its storage facilities are typically 85 % full during peak winter months, reflecting strong seasonal demand in the Northeast.
Sector-wide drivers that materially affect NFG include: (1) regional heating demand tied to colder-than-average winters, which boosts both utility sales and storage utilization; (2) New York and Pennsylvania regulatory frameworks that set rate-of-return caps for utilities, providing earnings stability but limiting upside; and (3) the broader transition toward lower-carbon fuels, where natural gas is positioned as a bridge fuel, supporting steady demand despite long-term renewable growth.
For a deeper quantitative dive into NFG’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-rich snapshot.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 655.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -17.53% < 20% (prev -37.31%; Δ 19.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 1.15b > Net Income 655.2m |
| Net Debt (2.50b) to EBITDA (1.51b): 1.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.65 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (92.0m) vs 12m ago 0.58% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.48% > 18% (prev 0.43%; Δ 5106 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 27.07% > 50% (prev 23.72%; Δ 3.35% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.44 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.51b / Interest Expense TTM 161.5m) |
Altman Z'' 1.67
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 758.6m - Total Current Liabilities 1.17b) / Total Assets 9.21b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 2.14b / Total Assets 9.21b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 1.04b / Avg Total Assets 8.75b) |
| D: 0.39 (Book Value of Equity 2.21b / Total Liabilities 5.62b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.67 = BB |
Beneish M -3.08
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 335.5m/281.1m, Revenue 2.37b/1.97b) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 51.48% / 42.57%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 2.37b / 1.97b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 655.2m - CFO 1.15b) / TA 9.21b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of NFG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.41%, over one month by +7.90%, over three months by +10.70% and over the past year by +21.78%.
Is NFG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NFG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 97.3 | 13.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 97.3 | 13.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 97.6 | 13.8% |
NFG Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 10.6952
P/S = 3.3544
P/B = 2.2246
P/EG = 2.05
Revenue TTM = 2.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.04b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.51b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.38b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 690.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.77b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.50b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.48b USD (7.98b + Debt 2.77b - CCE 271.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.44 (Ebit TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 161.5m)
EV/FCF = 51.18x (Enterprise Value 10.48b / FCF TTM 204.8m)
FCF Yield = 1.95% (FCF TTM 204.8m / Enterprise Value 10.48b)
FCF Margin = 8.64% (FCF TTM 204.8m / Revenue TTM 2.37b)
Net Margin = 27.65% (Net Income TTM 655.2m / Revenue TTM 2.37b)
Gross Margin = 51.48% ((Revenue TTM 2.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.18% (prev 70.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.14 (Enterprise Value 10.48b / Total Assets 9.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.56% (Interest Expense 43.4m / Debt 2.77b)
Taxrate = 24.62% (59.3m / 241.0m)
NOPAT = 784.2m (EBIT 1.04b * (1 - 24.62%))
Current Ratio = 0.65 (Total Current Assets 758.6m / Total Current Liabilities 1.17b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 2.77b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.59b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.66 (Net Debt 2.50b / EBITDA 1.51b)
Debt / FCF = 12.22 (Net Debt 2.50b / FCF TTM 204.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.48% (Net Income 655.2m / Total Assets 9.21b)
RoE = 21.09% (Net Income TTM 655.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.11b)
RoCE = 18.95% (EBIT 1.04b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.11b + L.T.Debt 2.38b))
RoIC = 13.56% (NOPAT 784.2m / Invested Capital 5.78b)
WACC = 5.49% (E(7.98b)/V(10.76b) * Re(6.99%) + D(2.77b)/V(10.76b) * Rd(1.56%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.99% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.26%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.54% ; FCFF base≈159.1m ; Y1≈109.1m ; Y5≈54.3m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.72b - Net Debt 2.50b = -787.5m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 12.67 | EPS CAGR: 5.59% | SUE: 1.24 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -3.62 | Revenue CAGR: -1.96% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.22 | Chg30d=-0.310 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=7.34 | Chg30d=-0.667 | Revisions Net=-4 | Growth EPS=+6.2% | Growth Revenue=+8.1%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=8.19 | Chg30d=-0.459 | Revisions Net=-4 | Growth EPS=+11.6% | Growth Revenue=+30.0%