(NGG) National Grid - Overview
Stock: Electricity Transmission, Gas Distribution, Interconnectors, LNG Import
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.30% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 7.23% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -2.39% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 5.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.21% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.60 |
| Alpha | 41.65 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.058 |
| Beta Downside | -0.118 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.76% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.94 |
Description: NGG National Grid January 29, 2026
National Grid plc (NYSE: NGG) is a regulated utility that owns and operates electricity transmission and distribution networks in the United Kingdom and the United States, plus a growing portfolio of interconnector and LNG assets. Its six operating segments are: UK Electricity Transmission (high-voltage grid in England and Wales); UK Electricity Distribution (regional distribution in the Midlands, Southwest England and South Wales); New England (electricity and gas supply, distribution and transmission in the six-state U.S. region); New York (electricity and gas distribution and transmission in the state); National Grid Ventures (cross-border interconnectors and the Isle of Grain LNG import terminal); and an “Other” segment that holds commercial property and insurance activities in the UK.
According to the FY 2025 annual report (filed March 2026), NGG generated $15.3 billion of revenue, a 4 % YoY increase driven largely by higher regulated asset base (RAB) earnings in the UK and New York. Net income was $2.1 billion, and the company returned $1.8 billion to shareholders via a dividend yielding ~4.3 % and a modest share-repurchase program. Capital expenditures for the year were $4.2 billion, with $1.9 billion earmarked for the UK transmission upgrade program and $1.2 billion for U.S. distribution modernization. The RAB grew 6 % year-over-year, reflecting approved price-control adjustments from Ofgem and the New York Public Service Commission.
Key economic and sector drivers include: (1) the UK’s net-zero roadmap, which is prompting accelerated investment in grid reinforcement and offshore wind integration; (2) U.S. state policies mandating higher renewable penetration, boosting demand for flexible distribution assets and interconnection capacity; and (3) the emerging European-UK electricity interconnector market, where NGG’s “North Sea Link” and “EleLink” projects are positioned to capture long-term congestion revenue. Regulatory outcomes remain the primary source of uncertainty-any deviation from the current price-control forecasts in the UK or New York could materially affect earnings.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of NGG’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit may be worthwhile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 4.61b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.71% < 20% (prev -2.65%; Δ 1.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 11.36b > Net Income 4.61b |
| Net Debt (45.03b) to EBITDA (12.97b): 3.47 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (990.0m) vs 12m ago 22.96% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 27.08% > 18% (prev 0.35%; Δ 2673 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 33.13% > 50% (prev 23.31%; Δ 9.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.20 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 12.97b / Interest Expense TTM 2.73b) |
Altman Z'' 2.34
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 8.93b - Total Current Liabilities 9.19b) / Total Assets 103.76b |
| B: 0.39 (Retained Earnings 39.98b / Total Assets 103.76b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 8.72b / Avg Total Assets 109.40b) |
| D: 0.54 (Book Value of Equity 35.91b / Total Liabilities 66.54b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.34 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.04
| DSRI: 0.51 (Receivables 2.83b/4.10b, Revenue 36.25b/26.81b) |
| GMI: 1.31 (GM 27.08% / 35.47%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.35 (Revenue 36.25b / 26.81b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 4.61b - CFO 11.36b) / TA 103.76b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of NGG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.63%, over one month by +9.64%, over three months by +13.72% and over the past year by +44.16%.
Is NGG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NGG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 80.8 | -5.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 80.8 | -5.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 106.1 | 24.4% |
NGG Fundamental Data Overview January 26, 2026
P/E Trailing = 20.2233
P/E Forward = 13.7174
P/S = 4.6327
P/B = 1.6132
P/EG = 1.1828
Revenue TTM = 36.25b GBP
EBIT TTM = 8.72b GBP
EBITDA TTM = 12.97b GBP
Long Term Debt = 42.29b GBP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.62b GBP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.91b GBP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 45.03b GBP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 101.01b GBP (59.15b + Debt 45.91b - CCE 4.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.20 (Ebit TTM 8.72b / Interest Expense TTM 2.73b)
EV/FCF = -19.25x (Enterprise Value 101.01b / FCF TTM -5.25b)
FCF Yield = -5.19% (FCF TTM -5.25b / Enterprise Value 101.01b)
FCF Margin = -14.47% (FCF TTM -5.25b / Revenue TTM 36.25b)
Net Margin = 12.72% (Net Income TTM 4.61b / Revenue TTM 36.25b)
Gross Margin = 27.08% ((Revenue TTM 36.25b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.43b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.86% (prev 34.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 101.01b / Total Assets 103.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.78% (Interest Expense 819.1m / Debt 45.91b)
Taxrate = 25.18% (207.5m / 824.1m)
NOPAT = 6.52b (EBIT 8.72b * (1 - 25.18%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 8.93b / Total Current Liabilities 9.19b)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 45.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 37.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.47 (Net Debt 45.03b / EBITDA 12.97b)
Debt / FCF = -8.58 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 45.03b / FCF TTM -5.25b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 35.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.21% (Net Income 4.61b / Total Assets 103.76b)
RoE = 13.11% (Net Income TTM 4.61b / Total Stockholder Equity 35.18b)
RoCE = 11.26% (EBIT 8.72b / Capital Employed (Equity 35.18b + L.T.Debt 42.29b))
RoIC = 9.96% (NOPAT 6.52b / Invested Capital 65.50b)
WACC = 4.03% (E(59.15b)/V(105.07b) * Re(6.13%) + D(45.91b)/V(105.07b) * Rd(1.78%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 10.89%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -5.25b)
EPS Correlation: -29.06 | EPS CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 54.54 | Revenue CAGR: 19.30% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2027-03-31): EPS=5.94 | Chg30d=+0.094 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+14.2% | Growth Revenue=+8.5%