(NGG) National Grid - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Gas, Transmission, Distribution, Interconnectors
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.13% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 7.48% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 22.26% |
| Payout Consistency | 92.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 5.3% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 33.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.14% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.88 |
| Alpha | 19.50 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.72 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.298 |
| Beta | 0.088 |
| Beta Downside | -0.053 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.76% |
| Mean DD | 6.05% |
| Median DD | 4.92% |
Description: NGG National Grid December 03, 2025
National Grid plc (NYSE: NGG) is a regulated utility that owns and operates electricity transmission and distribution networks in the United Kingdom and the United States, plus a growing portfolio of renewable-energy interconnectors and LNG assets.
In the UK, the Electricity Transmission segment runs the high-voltage grid across England and Wales, while the Electricity Distribution segment serves customers in the East and West Midlands, the Southwest of England, and South Wales. Both businesses are subject to Ofgem price-control reviews that set allowed revenue growth of roughly 2-3 % per year.
Across the Atlantic, the New England segment delivers electricity and gas to over 3 million customers and operates high-voltage transmission lines, and the New York segment supplies electricity and gas to more than 5 million customers. These U.S. businesses are regulated by state public service commissions, which have recently approved capital-intensive grid-modernization plans to accommodate higher renewable penetration.
National Grid Ventures expands the firm’s exposure to clean-energy transition through cross-border electricity interconnectors (e.g., the Celtic Interconnector) and the LNG import terminal at the Isle of Grain, positioning the company to capture revenue from both decarbonization and gas-as-bridge-fuel demand.
Key financial indicators (FY 2023) include adjusted EBITDA of $10.5 bn, a dividend yield near 5.5 %, and a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of ~2.0×, reflecting a balance between steady cash flow and disciplined leverage. Capital expenditure is slated at $12 bn for 2024-2026, driven largely by grid reinforcement and interconnector projects.
Strategic drivers for NGG’s outlook are the UK’s net-zero electricity target, U.S. states’ aggressive clean-energy mandates, and the growing need for cross-border transmission capacity to integrate offshore wind.
For a deeper dive into NGG’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, check out the detailed model on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (4.68b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.21b TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.40pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -0.70% (prev -2.65%; Δ 1.95pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 14.51b > Net Income 4.68b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (45.03b) to EBITDA (13.69b) ratio: 3.29 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.97 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (990.0m) change vs 12m ago 33.78% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 78.80% (prev 35.27%; Δ 43.54pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 33.64% (prev 23.31%; Δ 10.34pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.76 (EBITDA TTM 13.69b / Interest Expense TTM 2.69b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.43
| (A) -0.00 = (Total Current Assets 8.93b - Total Current Liabilities 9.19b) / Total Assets 103.76b |
| (B) 0.39 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 39.98b / Total Assets 103.76b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 10.12b / Avg Total Assets 109.40b |
| (D) 0.54 = Book Value of Equity 35.91b / Total Liabilities 66.54b |
| Total Rating: 2.43 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 57.49
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -2.45% |
| 3. FCF Margin -6.54% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.23 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.29 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 7.57)% |
| 7. RoE 13.31% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 55.65% |
| 9. EPS Trend -44.87% |
What is the price of NGG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.12%, over one month by +2.65%, over three months by +12.85% and over the past year by +24.57%.
Is NGG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NGG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 80.4 | 6.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 80.4 | 6.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 90.2 | 19.2% |
NGG Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 19.329
P/E Forward = 15.0602
P/S = 4.2679
P/B = 1.5362
P/EG = 1.4473
Beta = 0.555
Revenue TTM = 36.80b GBP
EBIT TTM = 10.12b GBP
EBITDA TTM = 13.69b GBP
Long Term Debt = 42.17b GBP (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 3.62b GBP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.91b GBP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 45.03b GBP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 98.32b GBP (56.47b + Debt 45.91b - CCE 4.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.76 (Ebit TTM 10.12b / Interest Expense TTM 2.69b)
FCF Yield = -2.45% (FCF TTM -2.41b / Enterprise Value 98.32b)
FCF Margin = -6.54% (FCF TTM -2.41b / Revenue TTM 36.80b)
Net Margin = 12.72% (Net Income TTM 4.68b / Revenue TTM 36.80b)
Gross Margin = 78.80% ((Revenue TTM 36.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.80b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 98.32b / Total Assets 103.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.45% (Interest Expense 665.0m / Debt 45.91b)
Taxrate = 25.18% (208.0m / 826.0m)
NOPAT = 7.57b (EBIT 10.12b * (1 - 25.18%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 8.93b / Total Current Liabilities 9.19b)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 45.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 37.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.29 (Net Debt 45.03b / EBITDA 13.69b)
Debt / FCF = -18.71 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 45.03b / FCF TTM -2.41b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 35.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.51% (Net Income 4.68b / Total Assets 103.76b)
RoE = 13.31% (Net Income TTM 4.68b / Total Stockholder Equity 35.18b)
RoCE = 13.08% (EBIT 10.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 35.18b + L.T.Debt 42.17b))
RoIC = 11.55% (NOPAT 7.57b / Invested Capital 65.50b)
WACC = 3.98% (E(56.47b)/V(102.38b) * Re(6.34%) + D(45.91b)/V(102.38b) * Rd(1.45%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 15.66%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -2.41b)
EPS Correlation: -44.87 | EPS CAGR: -47.24% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 55.65 | Revenue CAGR: 19.38% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-03-31): EPS=5.12 | Chg30d=-0.157 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+39.2% | Growth Revenue=+6.9%
EPS next Year (2027-03-31): EPS=5.84 | Chg30d=-0.150 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+14.1% | Growth Revenue=+5.3%
Additional Sources for NGG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle