(NGG) National Grid - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity Transmission, Gas Distribution, Interconnectors, LNG Importation
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 34.0% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.97 |
| Alpha Jensen | 14.98 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.388 |
| Beta | 0.555 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.76% |
| Mean DD | 6.03% |
Description: NGG National Grid September 26, 2025
National Grid plc (NYSE:NGG) operates as a multi-utility, delivering electricity and gas across the United Kingdom and the United States. Its business is split into six segments: UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and an “Other” segment that handles commercial property leasing and insurance activities.
The UK Electricity Transmission segment owns and operates the high-voltage network in England and Wales, while the UK Electricity Distribution segment serves customers in the East and West Midlands, the Southwest of England, and South Wales. In the U.S., the New England segment provides both electricity and gas supply, distribution, and high-voltage transmission, and the New York segment focuses on electricity and gas distribution and transmission.
National Grid Ventures expands the company’s strategic reach through cross-border electricity interconnectors (e.g., the IFA and Nemo projects) and the LNG import terminal at the Isle of Grain, positioning the firm to capture value from the ongoing energy transition.
Key financial and sector drivers to note: (1) NGG’s regulated asset base (RAB) grew ~7 % YoY in 2023, underpinning stable cash-flow generation; (2) EBITDA margins have hovered around 55 % in the last two fiscal years, reflecting the high-margin nature of regulated utilities; and (3) the company’s earnings are increasingly linked to decarbonization policies, such as the UK’s net-zero target and U.S. state-level clean-energy mandates, which drive investment in grid upgrades and interconnector capacity.
Founded in 1990 and headquartered in London, NGG benefits from long-term regulated returns but remains exposed to inflation-linked cost pressures, regulatory ratchet-up risk, and the capital intensity of renewable integration projects.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might explore ValueRay’s detailed financial models for NGG.
NGG Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 77,152m |
| Sub-Industry | Multi-Utilities |
| IPO / Inception | 1999-10-07 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 9.20% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
NGG Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.98% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.73% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 22.26% |
| Payout Consistency | 92.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 7.0% |
NGG Growth Ratios
| CAGR | 17.75% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.85 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 2.94 |
| Current Volume | 870.9k |
| Average Volume | 566k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (4.68b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.21b TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.42pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -0.70% (prev -2.17%; Δ 1.47pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 14.51b > Net Income 4.68b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (45.03b) to EBITDA (14.23b) ratio: 3.16 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.97 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (990.0m) change vs 12m ago 33.78% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 78.80% (prev 35.27%; Δ 43.54pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 37.17% (prev 28.45%; Δ 8.73pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.83 (EBITDA TTM 14.23b / Interest Expense TTM 2.69b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.50
| (A) -0.00 = (Total Current Assets 8.93b - Total Current Liabilities 9.19b) / Total Assets 103.76b |
| (B) 0.39 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 39.98b / Total Assets 103.76b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 10.29b / Avg Total Assets 99.00b |
| (D) 0.54 = Book Value of Equity 35.91b / Total Liabilities 66.54b |
| Total Rating: 2.50 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 54.94
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt = -0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield -2.39% = -1.20 |
| 3. FCF Margin -6.54% = -2.45 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.23 = 1.78 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.16 = -1.98 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.76)% = 8.44 |
| 7. RoE 13.31% = 1.11 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 27.41% = 2.06 |
| 9. EPS Trend -46.41% = -2.32 |
What is the price of NGG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.89%, over one month by +5.47%, over three months by +8.54% and over the past year by +26.08%.
Is National Grid a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of NGG is around 86.59 USD . This means that NGG is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +12% (Margin of Safety).
Is NGG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NGG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 80.4 | 4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 80.4 | 4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 93.5 | 21% |
NGG Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025
P/E Trailing = 19.9359
P/E Forward = 14.2045
P/S = 4.4132
P/B = 1.4164
P/EG = 1.3654
Beta = 0.555
Revenue TTM = 36.80b GBP
EBIT TTM = 10.29b GBP
EBITDA TTM = 14.23b GBP
Long Term Debt = 42.17b GBP (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 3.62b GBP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.91b GBP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 45.03b GBP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 100.47b GBP (58.61b + Debt 45.91b - CCE 4.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.83 (Ebit TTM 10.29b / Interest Expense TTM 2.69b)
FCF Yield = -2.39% (FCF TTM -2.41b / Enterprise Value 100.47b)
FCF Margin = -6.54% (FCF TTM -2.41b / Revenue TTM 36.80b)
Net Margin = 12.72% (Net Income TTM 4.68b / Revenue TTM 36.80b)
Gross Margin = 78.80% ((Revenue TTM 36.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.80b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 100.47b / Total Assets 103.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.45% (Interest Expense 665.0m / Debt 45.91b)
Taxrate = 25.18% (208.0m / 826.0m)
NOPAT = 7.70b (EBIT 10.29b * (1 - 25.18%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 8.93b / Total Current Liabilities 9.19b)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 45.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 37.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.16 (Net Debt 45.03b / EBITDA 14.23b)
Debt / FCF = -18.71 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 45.03b / FCF TTM -2.41b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 35.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.51% (Net Income 4.68b / Total Assets 103.76b)
RoE = 13.31% (Net Income TTM 4.68b / Total Stockholder Equity 35.18b)
RoCE = 13.30% (EBIT 10.29b / Capital Employed (Equity 35.18b + L.T.Debt 42.17b))
RoIC = 11.75% (NOPAT 7.70b / Invested Capital 65.50b)
WACC = 5.00% (E(58.61b)/V(104.53b) * Re(8.06%) + D(45.91b)/V(104.53b) * Rd(1.45%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 15.66%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -2.41b)
EPS Correlation: -46.41 | EPS CAGR: -53.65% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 27.41 | Revenue CAGR: 8.56% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for NGG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle