(NGVC) Natural Grocers by Vitamin - Ratings and Ratios
Organic Groceries, Dietary Supplements, Personal Care, Household Items
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.03% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.31% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 10.65% |
| Payout Consistency | 77.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 32.2% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 67.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.93% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.59 |
| Alpha | -45.45 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.78 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.449 |
| Beta | 0.392 |
| Beta Downside | 0.638 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 58.03% |
| Mean DD | 12.56% |
| Median DD | 6.54% |
Description: NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin November 16, 2025
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) operates a chain of U.S. retail locations that specialize in natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements, offering a broad assortment that includes fresh organic produce, private-label bulk foods, name-brand vitamins, natural personal-care items, and a limited selection of alcoholic beverages. The stores also provide science-based nutrition education through programs such as the Health Hotline.
As of the most recent filing, NGVC runs roughly 170 stores across 27 states, with FY 2023 comparable-store sales growing about 6 % year-over-year and total revenue reaching approximately $1.2 billion. The company’s private-label segment contributes roughly 30 % of sales, delivering higher gross margins (≈ 38 %) than name-brand items, which is a key profitability lever.
The natural-and-organic food retail sector is being driven by sustained consumer preference for healthier, sustainably sourced products, a trend that has outpaced overall grocery growth (≈ 4 % CAGR vs. 1-2 % for conventional grocery). However, inflationary pressure on fresh produce and supply-chain constraints on organic inputs create margin-compression risk, especially for retailers with a high proportion of fresh-food inventory.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of NGVC’s valuation dynamics, you may find it worthwhile to explore the company’s profile on ValueRay, where additional metrics and scenario analyses are available.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (46.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 79.9m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.11 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 5.77pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 0.70% (prev -1.38%; Δ 2.07pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 89.7m > Net Income 46.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (314.9m) to EBITDA (93.8m) ratio: 3.36 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.06 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (23.3m) change vs 12m ago 0.50% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 29.90% (prev 26.94%; Δ 2.95pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 200.7% (prev 189.4%; Δ 11.32pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 20.24 (EBITDA TTM 93.8m / Interest Expense TTM 3.06m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.79
| (A) 0.01 = (Total Current Assets 168.1m - Total Current Liabilities 158.8m) / Total Assets 670.5m |
| (B) 0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 149.3m / Total Assets 670.5m |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 62.0m / Avg Total Assets 663.0m |
| (D) 0.33 = Book Value of Equity 149.4m / Total Liabilities 458.1m |
| Total Rating: 1.79 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 78.61
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.13% |
| 3. FCF Margin 5.60% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.56 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.36 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 19.56)% |
| 7. RoE 23.52% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.68% |
| 9. EPS Trend 44.65% |
What is the price of NGVC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.91%, over one month by -8.72%, over three months by -34.29% and over the past year by -35.81%.
Is NGVC a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the NGVC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 54 | 114.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 54 | 114.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 28.6 | 13.8% |
NGVC Fundamental Data Overview December 30, 2025
P/E Trailing = 16.9255
P/S = 0.4465
P/B = 2.7979
P/EG = 6.47
Beta = 1.199
Revenue TTM = 1.33b USD
EBIT TTM = 62.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 93.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 332.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 40.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 332.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 314.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.05b USD (730.4m + Debt 332.0m - CCE 17.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 20.24 (Ebit TTM 62.0m / Interest Expense TTM 3.06m)
FCF Yield = 7.13% (FCF TTM 74.6m / Enterprise Value 1.05b)
FCF Margin = 5.60% (FCF TTM 74.6m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Net Margin = 3.49% (Net Income TTM 46.4m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Gross Margin = 29.90% ((Revenue TTM 1.33b - Cost of Revenue TTM 933.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.46% (prev 29.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.56 (Enterprise Value 1.05b / Total Assets 670.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.21% (Interest Expense 696.0k / Debt 332.0m)
Taxrate = 20.30% (3.01m / 14.8m)
NOPAT = 49.4m (EBIT 62.0m * (1 - 20.30%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 168.1m / Total Current Liabilities 158.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.56 (Debt 332.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 212.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.36 (Net Debt 314.9m / EBITDA 93.8m)
Debt / FCF = 4.22 (Net Debt 314.9m / FCF TTM 74.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 197.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.93% (Net Income 46.4m / Total Assets 670.5m)
RoE = 23.52% (Net Income TTM 46.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 197.4m)
RoCE = 11.71% (EBIT 62.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 197.4m + L.T.Debt 332.0m))
RoIC = 24.74% (NOPAT 49.4m / Invested Capital 199.7m)
WACC = 5.18% (E(730.4m)/V(1.06b) * Re(7.46%) + D(332.0m)/V(1.06b) * Rd(0.21%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.68%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈58.8m ; Y1≈72.5m ; Y5≈123.7m
Fair Price DCF = 91.67 (DCF Value 2.10b / Shares Outstanding 23.0m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 44.65 | EPS CAGR: -45.31% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.68 | Revenue CAGR: 5.27% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-09-30): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+11.3% | Growth Revenue=+7.5%
Additional Sources for NGVC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle