NGVC Stock Analysis: Natural Grocers by Vitamin | NYSE
Grocery Stores | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 633m USD | 12M Return: -29.8% | US63888U1088 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.26M
EPS Trend: 97.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.9%
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) is a U.S.-based specialty retailer that operates stores selling natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, body care items, pet products, and general household merchandise. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado, the company markets its products under the Natural Grocers, Vitamin Cottage, and Health Hotline brand names, and complements its retail operations with science-based nutrition education programs for customers. The company, formerly known as Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc., has been publicly traded on the NYSE since its IPO in 2012.
As a small-cap stock within the Consumer Staples sector, NGVC operates in the niche of health-focused food retail, distinguishing itself from conventional grocers by emphasizing organic produce, private-label natural products, and bulk staples like grains, nuts, and spices. Its integrated offering of dietary supplements and nutrition education positions it within the broader natural and wellness retail segment, a category that often appeals to consumers prioritizing organic, non-GMO, and clean-label products.
- Comparable store sales growth remains primary revenue driver
- Gross margin pressure persists from organic produce and supplement cost inflation
- New store expansion accelerates unit growth amid rising competition from Sprouts and Whole Foods
| Net Income: 47.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.18% < 20% (prev 0.19%; Δ 0.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 105.2m > Net Income 47.6m |
| Net Debt (303.8m) to EBITDA (111.9m): 2.72 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (23.3m) vs 12m ago -0.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.05% > 18% (prev 29.92%; Δ -0.87% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 199.6% > 50% (prev 199.9%; Δ -0.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.39 > 6 (EBIT TTM 63.2m / Interest Expense TTM 2.70m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 174.1m - Total Current Liabilities 158.2m) / Total Assets 687.7m |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 174.8m / Total Assets 687.7m) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 63.2m / Avg Total Assets 673.3m) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 239.4m / Total Liabilities 448.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.17 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 10.6m/12.8m, Revenue 1.34b/1.32b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 29.92% / 29.05%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 1.34b / 1.32b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 47.6m - CFO 105.2m) / TA 687.7m) |
| Beneish M = -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 27.24 with a total of 88,109 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.33%, over one month by -13.47%, over three months by -8.07% and over the past year by -29.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.40 (which is 6.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Natural Grocers by Vitamin has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NGVC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 44.7 | 64% |
P/E Trailing = 13.599
P/E Forward = 11.655
P/S = 0.4711
P/B = 2.6808
P/EG = 1.44
Revenue TTM = 1.34b USD
EBIT TTM = 63.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 111.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.39m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 42.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 321.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 321.2m already included)
Net Debt = 303.8m USD (calculated: Debt 321.2m - CCE 17.5m)
Enterprise Value = 936.8m USD (633.1m + Debt 321.2m - CCE 17.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.39 (Ebit TTM 63.2m / Interest Expense TTM 2.70m)
EV/FCF = 16.39x (Enterprise Value 936.8m / FCF TTM 57.1m)
FCF Yield = 6.10% (FCF TTM 57.1m / Enterprise Value 936.8m)
FCF Margin = 4.25% (FCF TTM 57.1m / Revenue TTM 1.34b)
Net Margin = 3.55% (Net Income TTM 47.6m / Revenue TTM 1.34b)
Gross Margin = 29.05% ((Revenue TTM 1.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 953.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.28% (prev 28.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.36 (Enterprise Value 936.8m / Total Assets 687.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.84% (Interest Expense 2.70m / Debt 321.2m)
Taxrate = 21.31% (12.9m / 60.5m)
NOPAT = 49.8m (EBIT 63.2m * (1 - 21.31%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 174.1m / Total Current Liabilities 158.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.34 (Debt 321.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 239.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.72 (Net Debt 303.8m / EBITDA 111.9m)
Debt / FCF = 5.32 (Net Debt 303.8m / FCF TTM 57.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 225.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.08% (Net Income 47.6m / Total Assets 687.7m)
RoE = 21.11% (Net Income TTM 47.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 225.7m)
RoCE = 27.85% (EBIT 63.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 225.7m + L.T.Debt 1.39m))
RoIC = 8.98% (NOPAT 49.8m / Invested Capital 554.0m)
WACC = 4.59% (E(633.1m)/V(954.3m) * Re(6.58%) + D(321.2m)/V(954.3m) * Rd(0.84%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 52.33 | Cagr: 0.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.78% ; FCFF base≈54.4m ; Y1≈61.7m ; Y5≈88.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 44.65 (EV 1.33b - Net Debt 303.8m = Equity 1.03b / Shares 23.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 13.76% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.47 | EPS CAGR: 29.76% | SUE: -0.43 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.95 | Revenue CAGR: 6.59% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=2.11 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=2.31 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+9.5% | GrowthRev=+5.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)