NGVC Stock Analysis: Natural Grocers by Vitamin | NYSE
Grocery Stores | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 758m USD | 12M Return: -17.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.68M
EPS Trend: 97.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.4%
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) is a U.S.-based specialty retailer that operates stores selling natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, body care items, pet products, and general household merchandise. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado, the company markets its products under the Natural Grocers, Vitamin Cottage, and Health Hotline brand names, and complements its retail operations with science-based nutrition education programs for customers. The company, formerly known as Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc., has been publicly traded on the NYSE since its IPO in 2012.
As a small-cap stock within the Consumer Staples sector, NGVC operates in the niche of health-focused food retail, distinguishing itself from conventional grocers by emphasizing organic produce, private-label natural products, and bulk staples like grains, nuts, and spices. Its integrated offering of dietary supplements and nutrition education positions it within the broader natural and wellness retail segment, a category that often appeals to consumers prioritizing organic, non-GMO, and clean-label products.
- Comparable store sales growth remains primary revenue driver
- Gross margin pressure persists from organic produce and supplement cost inflation
- New store expansion accelerates unit growth amid rising competition from Sprouts and Whole Foods
| Net Income: 48.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.60% < 20% (prev -0.34%; Δ 0.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 96.8m > Net Income 48.2m |
| Net Debt (302.3m) to EBITDA (95.9m): 3.15 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (23.1m) vs 12m ago -0.73% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.20% > 18% (prev 29.76%; Δ -0.56% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 198.3% > 50% (prev 195.3%; Δ 3.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 63.8m / Interest Expense TTM 2.73m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 170.6m - Total Current Liabilities 162.5m) / Total Assets 684.7m |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 167.2m / Total Assets 684.7m) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 63.8m / Avg Total Assets 674.6m) |
| D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 230.9m / Total Liabilities 453.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.04 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 13.1m/12.4m, Revenue 1.34b/1.30b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 29.76% / 29.20%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 1.34b / 1.30b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 48.2m - CFO 96.8m) / TA 684.7m) |
| Beneish M = -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 32.68 with a total of 71,109 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.60%, over one month by +6.62%, over three months by +25.06% and over the past year by -17.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.50 (which is 9.7% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Natural Grocers by Vitamin has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NGVC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 46.3 | 41.8% |
P/E Trailing = 15.8125
P/E Forward = 13.7552
P/S = 0.5665
P/B = 3.2821
P/EG = 1.44
Revenue TTM = 1.34b USD
EBIT TTM = 63.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 95.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.45m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 41.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 323.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 323.1m already included)
Net Debt = 302.3m USD (calculated: Debt 323.1m - CCE 20.7m)
Enterprise Value = 1.06b USD (757.8m + Debt 323.1m - CCE 20.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.34 (Ebit TTM 63.8m / Interest Expense TTM 2.73m)
EV/FCF = 20.68x (Enterprise Value 1.06b / FCF TTM 51.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.84% (FCF TTM 51.3m / Enterprise Value 1.06b)
FCF Margin = 3.83% (FCF TTM 51.3m / Revenue TTM 1.34b)
Net Margin = 3.60% (Net Income TTM 48.2m / Revenue TTM 1.34b)
Gross Margin = 29.20% ((Revenue TTM 1.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 947.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.01% (prev 29.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.55 (Enterprise Value 1.06b / Total Assets 684.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.85% (Interest Expense 2.73m / Debt 323.1m)
Taxrate = 21.16% (12.9m / 61.1m)
NOPAT = 50.3m (EBIT 63.8m * (1 - 21.16%))
Current Ratio = 1.05 (Total Current Assets 170.6m / Total Current Liabilities 162.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.40 (Debt 323.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 230.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.15 (Net Debt 302.3m / EBITDA 95.9m)
Debt / FCF = 5.90 (Net Debt 302.3m / FCF TTM 51.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 216.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.14% (Net Income 48.2m / Total Assets 684.7m)
RoE = 22.26% (Net Income TTM 48.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 216.5m)
RoCE = 29.30% (EBIT 63.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 216.5m + L.T.Debt 1.45m))
RoIC = 9.27% (NOPAT 50.3m / Invested Capital 543.0m)
WACC = 5.81% (E(757.8m)/V(1.08b) * Re(8.0%) + D(323.1m)/V(1.08b) * Rd(0.85%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 46.67 | Cagr: 0.24%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.82% ; FCFF base≈53.8m ; Y1≈49.1m ; Y5≈42.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.47 (EV 681.8m - Net Debt 302.3m = Equity 379.4m / Shares 23.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -10.88% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.82 | EPS CAGR: 36.84% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.40 | Revenue CAGR: 7.36% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=+5.05% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=2.12 | Chg30d=+1.11% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+6.0% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=2.31 | Chg30d=+3.59% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+9.0% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)