NGVC Stock Analysis: Natural Grocers by Vitamin | NYSE
Grocery Stores | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 684m USD | 12M Return: -18.9% | US63888U1088 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.71M
EPS Trend: 97.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.9%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) is a U.S.-based specialty retailer of natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements, operating stores under the Natural Grocers and Vitamin Cottage banners. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado, the company went public in 2012. Its product assortment spans organic produce, private-label bulk foods, dairy and dairy substitutes, meat and seafood, frozen and canned groceries, prepared foods, and a wide range of name-brand and private-label vitamins and dietary supplements, alongside body care, pet care, and household goods. The company differentiates itself through its focus on natural and organic offerings and science-based nutrition education programs designed to help customers make informed health choices.
As a small-cap stock in the Consumer Staples sector within the Food Retail sub-industry, NGVC competes in a niche segment of the grocery market that emphasizes health-oriented and organic products. The companys reliance on private-label items across bulk foods, groceries, and supplements is a core part of its value proposition, allowing it to offer differentiated products while maintaining pricing flexibility against larger conventional and natural food competitors.
- Comparable store sales growth drives quarterly revenue beat
- New store openings accelerate unit expansion across markets
- Private label mix expansion lifts gross margins
| Net Income: 47.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.64 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.18% < 20% (prev 0.19%; Δ 0.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 105.2m > Net Income 47.6m |
| Net Debt (303.8m) to EBITDA (95.7m): 3.17 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (23.3m) vs 12m ago -0.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.05% > 18% (prev 29.92%; Δ -0.87% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 199.6% > 50% (prev 199.9%; Δ -0.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.39 > 6 (EBIT TTM 63.2m / Interest Expense TTM 2.70m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 174.1m - Total Current Liabilities 158.2m) / Total Assets 687.7m |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 174.8m / Total Assets 687.7m) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 63.2m / Avg Total Assets 673.3m) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 239.4m / Total Liabilities 448.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.17 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 10.6m/12.8m, Revenue 1.34b/1.32b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 29.92% / 29.05%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 1.34b / 1.32b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 47.6m - CFO 105.2m) / TA 687.7m) |
| Beneish M = -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.26 with a total of 86,708 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.41%, over one month by +3.07%, over three months by -6.91% and over the past year by -18.86%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 27.90 (which is 7.8% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Natural Grocers by Vitamin has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NGVC.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.3 | 39.6% |
P/E Trailing = 14.478
P/E Forward = 12.4069
P/S = 0.509
P/B = 2.855
P/EG = 1.44
Revenue TTM = 1.34b USD
EBIT TTM = 63.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 95.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.39m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 42.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 321.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 321.2m already included)
Net Debt = 303.8m USD (calculated: Debt 321.2m - CCE 17.5m)
Enterprise Value = 987.8m USD (684.0m + Debt 321.2m - CCE 17.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.39 (Ebit TTM 63.2m / Interest Expense TTM 2.70m)
EV/FCF = 17.29x (Enterprise Value 987.8m / FCF TTM 57.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.79% (FCF TTM 57.1m / Enterprise Value 987.8m)
FCF Margin = 4.25% (FCF TTM 57.1m / Revenue TTM 1.34b)
Net Margin = 3.55% (Net Income TTM 47.6m / Revenue TTM 1.34b)
Gross Margin = 29.05% ((Revenue TTM 1.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 953.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.28% (prev 28.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.44 (Enterprise Value 987.8m / Total Assets 687.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.84% (Interest Expense 2.70m / Debt 321.2m)
Taxrate = 21.31% (12.9m / 60.5m)
NOPAT = 49.8m (EBIT 63.2m * (1 - 21.31%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 174.1m / Total Current Liabilities 158.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.34 (Debt 321.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 239.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.17 (Net Debt 303.8m / EBITDA 95.7m)
Debt / FCF = 5.32 (Net Debt 303.8m / FCF TTM 57.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 225.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.08% (Net Income 47.6m / Total Assets 687.7m)
RoE = 21.11% (Net Income TTM 47.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 225.7m)
RoCE = 27.85% (EBIT 63.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 225.7m + L.T.Debt 1.39m))
RoIC = 8.98% (NOPAT 49.8m / Invested Capital 554.0m)
WACC = 4.57% (E(684.0m)/V(1.01b) * Re(6.41%) + D(321.2m)/V(1.01b) * Rd(0.84%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 52.33 | Cagr: 0.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.66% ; FCFF base≈54.5m ; Y1≈61.4m ; Y5≈86.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 43.61 (EV 1.31b - Net Debt 303.8m = Equity 1.01b / Shares 23.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 13.04% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.47 | EPS CAGR: 29.76% | SUE: -0.43 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.95 | Revenue CAGR: 6.59% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.55 | Chg30d=-3.51% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=2.11 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+5.3% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=2.32 | Chg30d=+0.58% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+10.3% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)