NLY Stock Analysis: Annaly Capital Management | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 15.858m USD | 12M Return: 3.7% | US0357108390 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 218M
EPS Trend: 31.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 87.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a diversified capital manager focused on the residential mortgage finance business. The company invests across a broad range of mortgage-related assets, including agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products, mortgage servicing rights, agency commercial MBS, to-be-announced forward contracts, residential mortgage loans, and credit risk transfer securities.
The company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which allows it to avoid federal income tax on earnings distributed to shareholders. Annaly was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
As a mortgage REIT, Annaly primarily earns income from the net interest spread between the yields on its mortgage-related assets and the costs of financing those holdings. Agency MBS are typically guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which generally carry lower credit risk than non-agency mortgage products.
- Fed rate cuts compress net interest margin
- Agency MBS spreads widen versus Treasuries
- Dividend cut risk rises as book value erodes
| Net Income: 2.95b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.17k% < 20% (prev -1.10k%; Δ -66.46% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 886.4m > Net Income 2.95b |
| Net Debt (122b) to EBITDA (8.16b): 14.96 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (732.3m) vs 12m ago 17.91% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.69% > 50% (prev 5.78%; Δ -0.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.57 > 6 (EBIT TTM 8.15b / Interest Expense TTM 5.18b) |
| A: -0.59 (Total Current Assets 3.76b - Total Current Liabilities 88.7b) / Total Assets 144b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -13.2b / Total Assets 144b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 8.15b / Avg Total Assets 128b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 16.9b / Total Liabilities 127b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.61 = D |
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 846.5m/830.5m, Revenue 7.28b/6.48b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 99.20% / 99.28%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.99) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 7.28b / 6.48b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 2.95b - CFO 886.4m) / TA 144b) |
| Beneish M = -3.02 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.70 with a total of 22,501,776 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.74%, over one month by -14.16%, over three months by -12.54% and over the past year by +3.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.00 (which is 3.7% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Annaly Capital Management has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NLY.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 24.2 | 29.6% |
P/E Trailing = 5.0821
P/E Forward = 6.6578
P/S = 4.8726
P/B = 1.0686
P/EG = 32.0303
Revenue TTM = 7.28b USD
EBIT TTM = 8.15b USD
EBITDA TTM = 8.16b USD
Long Term Debt = 36.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 86.9b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 125b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 122b USD (calculated: Debt 125b - CCE 2.91b)
Enterprise Value = 138b USD (15.9b + Debt 125b - CCE 2.91b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.57 (Ebit TTM 8.15b / Interest Expense TTM 5.18b)
EV/FCF = -438.5x (Enterprise Value 138b / FCF TTM -314.4m)
FCF Yield = -0.23% (FCF TTM -314.4m / Enterprise Value 138b)
FCF Margin = -4.32% (FCF TTM -314.4m / Revenue TTM 7.28b)
Net Margin = 40.52% (Net Income TTM 2.95b / Revenue TTM 7.28b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 7.28b - Cost of Revenue TTM 52.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 138b / Total Assets 144b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.14% (Interest Expense 5.18b / Debt 125b)
Taxrate = 0.83% (6.90m / 834.7m)
NOPAT = 8.08b (EBIT 8.15b * (1 - 0.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.04 (Total Current Assets 3.76b / Total Current Liabilities 88.7b)
Debt / Equity = 7.38 (Debt 125b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = 14.96 (Net Debt 122b / EBITDA 8.16b)
Debt / FCF = -388.1 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 122b / FCF TTM -314.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 16.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.31% (Net Income 2.95b / Total Assets 144b)
RoE = 18.39% (Net Income TTM 2.95b / Total Stockholder Equity 16.1b)
RoCE = 15.38% (EBIT 8.15b / Capital Employed (Equity 16.1b + L.T.Debt 36.9b))
RoIC = 5.71% (NOPAT 8.08b / Invested Capital 142b)
WACC = 4.58% (E(15.9b)/V(141b) * Re(8.29%) + D(125b)/V(141b) * Rd(4.14%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 8.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 98.35 | Cagr: 18.36%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -314.4m)
EPS Correlation: 31.67 | EPS CAGR: 1.77% | SUE: 2.32 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 87.79 | Revenue CAGR: 7.42% | SUE: 0.81 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+58% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.08 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+5.6% | GrowthRev=+85.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.11 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+64% | GrowthEPS=+0.9% | GrowthRev=+13.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +80% (up=30, down=2)