(NLY) Annaly Capital Management - Overview
Stock: Agency, MBS, Non-Agency, Loans, Servicing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 13.76% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 15.68% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 33.56% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 95.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 23.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.39% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.00 |
| Alpha | 15.57 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.675 |
| Beta Downside | 0.803 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 26.70% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.62 |
Description: NLY Annaly Capital Management January 03, 2026
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY) is a diversified capital manager that operates primarily in the mortgage-finance sector. The firm’s investment portfolio includes agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by residential mortgages, non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products, mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency commercial MBS, forward contracts, residential mortgage loans, and credit-risk-transfer securities. Structured as a real-estate investment trust (REIT), NLY avoids federal income tax on earnings it distributes to shareholders, aligning its cash-flow needs with dividend payouts.
Key quantitative indicators as of the most recent filing show a dividend yield near 7.5 % and a weighted-average coupon of roughly 3.1 % on its agency MBS holdings, reflecting the low-rate environment that has compressed net interest margins. The REIT’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward agency MBS (≈ 85 % of total assets), making it highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and Treasury yield movements; a 25-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury rate historically translates to a 0.5-percentage-point dip in NLY’s net interest margin. Additionally, the company’s exposure to mortgage-prepayment risk is mitigated by its sizable MSR holdings, which tend to generate stable cash flows when rates rise and prepayments slow.
For a deeper, data-driven view of NLY’s risk-adjusted performance and sensitivity to interest-rate shifts, the ValueRay platform provides a granular analytics dashboard worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: 2.03b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1241 % < 20% (prev 71.60%; Δ -1313 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 2.86b > Net Income 2.03b |
| Net Debt (109.82b) to EBITDA (6.87b): 15.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (695.0m) vs 12m ago 21.80% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.51% > 50% (prev 1.15%; Δ 4.36% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.94 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 6.87b / Interest Expense TTM 4.82b) |
Altman Z'' -4.14
| A: -0.60 (Total Current Assets 2.96b - Total Current Liabilities 84.80b) / Total Assets 135.61b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -13.16b / Total Assets 135.61b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 4.53b / Avg Total Assets 119.58b) |
| D: -0.11 (Book Value of Equity -13.64b / Total Liabilities 119.45b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -4.14 = D |
What is the price of NLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.38%, over one month by -1.76%, over three months by +8.60% and over the past year by +26.54%.
Is NLY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 24.5 | 7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 24.5 | 7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 28 | 22.6% |
NLY Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 7.6687
P/S = 7.0092
P/B = 1.1306
P/EG = -3.61
Revenue TTM = 6.59b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.53b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.87b USD
Long Term Debt = 31.93b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 81.87b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 111.86b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 109.82b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 125.98b USD (16.15b + Debt 111.86b - CCE 2.04b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.94 (Ebit TTM 4.53b / Interest Expense TTM 4.82b)
EV/FCF = 64.50x (Enterprise Value 125.98b / FCF TTM 1.95b)
FCF Yield = 1.55% (FCF TTM 1.95b / Enterprise Value 125.98b)
FCF Margin = 29.62% (FCF TTM 1.95b / Revenue TTM 6.59b)
Net Margin = 30.75% (Net Income TTM 2.03b / Revenue TTM 6.59b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 6.59b - Cost of Revenue TTM 63.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 125.98b / Total Assets 135.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.18% (Interest Expense 1.32b / Debt 111.86b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 3.58b (EBIT 4.53b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.03 (Total Current Assets 2.96b / Total Current Liabilities 84.80b)
Debt / Equity = 6.95 (Debt 111.86b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.99 (Net Debt 109.82b / EBITDA 6.87b)
Debt / FCF = 56.23 (Net Debt 109.82b / FCF TTM 1.95b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 14.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.70% (Net Income 2.03b / Total Assets 135.61b)
RoE = 14.13% (Net Income TTM 2.03b / Total Stockholder Equity 14.34b)
RoCE = 9.80% (EBIT 4.53b / Capital Employed (Equity 14.34b + L.T.Debt 31.93b))
RoIC = 9.18% (NOPAT 3.58b / Invested Capital 39.00b)
WACC = 1.88% (E(16.15b)/V(128.01b) * Re(8.40%) + D(111.86b)/V(128.01b) * Rd(1.18%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 17.92%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.26% ; FCFF base≈1.24b ; Y1≈838.7m ; Y5≈403.4m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 12.79b - Net Debt 109.82b = -97.04b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -70.16 | EPS CAGR: -10.46% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 45.58 | Revenue CAGR: 3.73% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.74 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.02 | Chg30d=+0.041 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+3.5% | Growth Revenue=+68.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.96 | Chg30d=+0.040 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-2.0% | Growth Revenue=+35.2%