NLY Stock Analysis: Annaly Capital Management | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 13.574m USD | 12M Return: 2.3% | US0357108390 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 223M
EPS Trend: 81.5%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 93.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a diversified capital manager focused on the residential mortgage finance business. The company invests across a broad range of mortgage-related assets, including agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products, mortgage servicing rights, agency commercial MBS, to-be-announced forward contracts, residential mortgage loans, and credit risk transfer securities.
The company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which allows it to avoid federal income tax on earnings distributed to shareholders. Annaly was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
As a mortgage REIT, Annaly primarily earns income from the net interest spread between the yields on its mortgage-related assets and the costs of financing those holdings. Agency MBS are typically guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which generally carry lower credit risk than non-agency mortgage products.
- Fed rate cuts compress net interest margin
- Agency MBS spreads widen versus Treasuries
- Dividend cut risk rises as book value erodes
| Net Income: 1.13b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.62 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.10k% < 20% (prev -1.18k%; Δ 79.86% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 886.4m > Net Income 1.13b |
| Net Debt (125b) to EBITDA (6.75b): 18.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (764.4m) vs 12m ago 22.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 81.22% > 18% (prev 99.22%; Δ -18.00% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.73% > 50% (prev 5.45%; Δ 0.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.26 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.72b / Interest Expense TTM 5.35b) |
| A: -0.58 (Total Current Assets 3.06b - Total Current Liabilities 88.5b) / Total Assets 146b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -14.8b / Total Assets 146b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 6.72b / Avg Total Assets 136b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 15.8b / Total Liabilities 130b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.71 = D |
| DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 882.3m/959.4m, Revenue 7.80b/6.86b) |
| GMI: 1.22 (GM 99.22% / 81.22%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.99) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 7.80b / 6.86b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 1.13b - CFO 886.4m) / TA 146b) |
| Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.47 with a total of 8,695,194 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.71%, over one month by -5.62%, over three months by -16.80% and over the past year by +2.31%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 17.40 (which is 5.8% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Annaly Capital Management has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.08. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NLY.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22.3 | 20.6% |
P/E Trailing = 4.4801
P/E Forward = 6.5359
P/S = 9.4489
P/B = 1.0486
P/EG = 32.0303
Revenue TTM = 7.80b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.72b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.75b USD
Long Term Debt = 31.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 85.5b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 127b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 125b USD (calculated: Debt 127b - CCE 2.18b)
Enterprise Value = 139b USD (13.6b + Debt 127b - CCE 2.18b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.26 (Ebit TTM 6.72b / Interest Expense TTM 5.35b)
EV/FCF = -440.9x (Enterprise Value 139b / FCF TTM -314.4m)
FCF Yield = -0.23% (FCF TTM -314.4m / Enterprise Value 139b)
FCF Margin = -4.03% (FCF TTM -314.4m / Revenue TTM 7.80b)
Net Margin = 14.55% (Net Income TTM 1.13b / Revenue TTM 7.80b)
Gross Margin = 81.22% ((Revenue TTM 7.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.46b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.44% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 139b / Total Assets 146b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.20% (Interest Expense 5.35b / Debt 127b)
Taxrate = 1.20% (14.0m / 1.17b)
NOPAT = 6.64b (EBIT 6.72b * (1 - 1.20%))
Current Ratio = 0.03 (Total Current Assets 3.06b / Total Current Liabilities 88.5b)
Debt / Equity = 8.04 (Debt 127b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 18.52 (Net Debt 125b / EBITDA 6.75b)
Debt / FCF = -397.7 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 125b / FCF TTM -314.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 16.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.83% (Net Income 1.13b / Total Assets 146b)
RoE = 6.97% (Net Income TTM 1.13b / Total Stockholder Equity 16.3b)
RoCE = 13.94% (EBIT 6.72b / Capital Employed (Equity 16.3b + L.T.Debt 31.9b))
RoIC = 4.65% (NOPAT 6.64b / Invested Capital 143b)
WACC = 4.50% (E(13.6b)/V(141b) * Re(7.71%) + D(127b)/V(141b) * Rd(4.20%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 7.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 98.99 | Cagr: 20.66%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -314.4m)
EPS Correlation: 81.53 | EPS CAGR: 4.68% | SUE: 1.62 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 93.43 | Revenue CAGR: 10.01% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=+1.51% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.08 | Chg30d=-0.05% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+84.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.11 | Chg30d=-0.11% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+0.8% | GrowthRev=+11.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +82% (up=14, down=0)