(NLY) Annaly Capital Management - Overview
Stock: Agency, MBS, Non-Agency, Loans, Servicing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 13.76% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 16.33% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 33.56% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 96.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.53% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.45 |
| Alpha | 25.66 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.699 |
| Beta Downside | 0.821 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.46% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.44 |
Description: NLY Annaly Capital Management January 03, 2026
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY) is a diversified capital manager that operates primarily in the mortgage-finance sector. The firm’s investment portfolio includes agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by residential mortgages, non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products, mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency commercial MBS, forward contracts, residential mortgage loans, and credit-risk-transfer securities. Structured as a real-estate investment trust (REIT), NLY avoids federal income tax on earnings it distributes to shareholders, aligning its cash-flow needs with dividend payouts.
Key quantitative indicators as of the most recent filing show a dividend yield near 7.5 % and a weighted-average coupon of roughly 3.1 % on its agency MBS holdings, reflecting the low-rate environment that has compressed net interest margins. The REIT’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward agency MBS (≈ 85 % of total assets), making it highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and Treasury yield movements; a 25-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury rate historically translates to a 0.5-percentage-point dip in NLY’s net interest margin. Additionally, the company’s exposure to mortgage-prepayment risk is mitigated by its sizable MSR holdings, which tend to generate stable cash flows when rates rise and prepayments slow.
For a deeper, data-driven view of NLY’s risk-adjusted performance and sensitivity to interest-rate shifts, the ValueRay platform provides a granular analytics dashboard worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 1.50b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1595 % < 20% (prev -165.6%; Δ -1429 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 2.86b > Net Income 1.50b |
| Net Debt (29.14b) to EBITDA (6.17b): 4.72 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (622.8m) vs 12m ago 20.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 98.93% > 18% (prev 0.89%; Δ 9804 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.16% > 50% (prev 0.30%; Δ 3.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.33 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 6.17b / Interest Expense TTM 4.65b) |
Altman Z'' -4.05
| A: -0.60 (Total Current Assets 3.06b - Total Current Liabilities 78.49b) / Total Assets 125.86b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -13.63b / Total Assets 125.86b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 6.17b / Avg Total Assets 113.69b) |
| D: -0.13 (Book Value of Equity -14.24b / Total Liabilities 110.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -4.05 = D |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 0.04 (Receivables 1.15b/1.83b, Revenue 4.73b/303.8m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 98.93% / 89.09%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.97) |
| SGI: 15.57 (Revenue 4.73b / 303.8m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 1.50b - CFO 2.86b) / TA 125.86b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 6.53 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of NLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.59%, over one month by +7.57%, over three months by +19.81% and over the past year by +39.17%.
Is NLY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.1 | -3.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23.1 | -3.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 29.6 | 23.5% |
NLY Fundamental Data Overview January 24, 2026
P/E Forward = 8.1169
P/S = 9.3224
P/B = 1.2433
P/EG = -3.61
Revenue TTM = 4.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.17b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.17b USD
Long Term Debt = 28.43b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.02b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 29.46b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 29.14b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 43.66b USD (16.30b + Debt 29.46b - CCE 2.10b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.33 (Ebit TTM 6.17b / Interest Expense TTM 4.65b)
EV/FCF = 22.35x (Enterprise Value 43.66b / FCF TTM 1.95b)
FCF Yield = 4.47% (FCF TTM 1.95b / Enterprise Value 43.66b)
FCF Margin = 41.29% (FCF TTM 1.95b / Revenue TTM 4.73b)
Net Margin = 31.62% (Net Income TTM 1.50b / Revenue TTM 4.73b)
Gross Margin = 98.93% ((Revenue TTM 4.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 50.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 99.27% (prev 99.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.35 (Enterprise Value 43.66b / Total Assets 125.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.27% (Interest Expense 1.26b / Debt 29.46b)
Taxrate = 1.49% (15.3m / 1.03b)
NOPAT = 6.08b (EBIT 6.17b * (1 - 1.49%))
Current Ratio = 0.04 (Total Current Assets 3.06b / Total Current Liabilities 78.49b)
Debt / Equity = 1.98 (Debt 29.46b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 14.91b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.72 (Net Debt 29.14b / EBITDA 6.17b)
Debt / FCF = 14.92 (Net Debt 29.14b / FCF TTM 1.95b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.32% (Net Income 1.50b / Total Assets 125.86b)
RoE = 11.10% (Net Income TTM 1.50b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.47b)
RoCE = 14.72% (EBIT 6.17b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.47b + L.T.Debt 28.43b))
RoIC = 16.26% (NOPAT 6.08b / Invested Capital 37.38b)
WACC = 5.73% (E(16.30b)/V(45.76b) * Re(8.49%) + D(29.46b)/V(45.76b) * Rd(4.27%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 8.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 11.62%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.26% ; FCFF base≈1.24b ; Y1≈838.7m ; Y5≈403.4m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 12.79b - Net Debt 29.14b = -16.35b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-38.07%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -73.52 | EPS CAGR: -52.69% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 29.20 | Revenue CAGR: 51.36% | SUE: 1.44 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.74 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=11
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.98 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+2.4% | Growth Revenue=+62.6%