NLY Stock Analysis: Annaly Capital Management | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 16.839m USD | 12M Return: 31.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 191M
EPS Trend: -29.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 87.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a diversified capital manager focused on residential mortgage finance, headquartered in New York and incorporated in 1996. The company invests across a broad range of mortgage-related assets, including agency mortgage-backed securities, non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products, mortgage servicing rights, agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, to-be-announced forward contracts, residential mortgage loans, and credit risk transfer securities. It operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT), meaning it is generally not subject to federal income tax provided it distributes its taxable income to shareholders. Annaly trades on the NYSE under the ticker NLY and is classified within the Mortgage REITs sub-industry.
As a mortgage REIT, Annalys business model centers on generating returns from the net interest spread between the yield earned on its mortgage-related assets and the cost of financing those holdings, often using significant leverage. Agency MBS held by the company are guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or by Ginnie Mae, which carry implicit or explicit government backing and therefore low credit risk, distinguishing them from non-agency mortgage products.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Agency MBS spreads tighten on rate volatility
- Dividend coverage pressured by rising funding costs
| Net Income: 2.19b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.83 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.20k% < 20% (prev -1.06k%; Δ -147.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.00 > 3% & CFO -552.3m > Net Income 2.19b |
| Net Debt (115b) to EBITDA (7.21b): 15.95 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (724.4m) vs 12m ago 23.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.61% > 50% (prev 6.02%; Δ -0.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.44 > 6 (EBIT TTM 7.19b / Interest Expense TTM 5.00b) |
| A: -0.59 (Total Current Assets 2.72b - Total Current Liabilities 85.1b) / Total Assets 139b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -13.4b / Total Assets 139b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 7.19b / Avg Total Assets 122b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 16.3b / Total Liabilities 122b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.68 = D |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 806.5m/836.9m, Revenue 6.84b/6.33b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 99.17% / 99.22%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.99) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 6.84b / 6.33b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 2.19b - CFO -552.3m) / TA 139b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 22.53 with a total of 6,294,097 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.76%, over one month by +11.09%, over three months by +6.81% and over the past year by +31.68%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 21.90 (which is 2.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Annaly Capital Management has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NLY.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 24.3 | 7.7% |
P/E Trailing = 7.4129
P/E Forward = 7.4184
P/S = 6.6098
P/B = 1.1423
P/EG = 32.0303
Revenue TTM = 6.84b USD
EBIT TTM = 7.19b USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.21b USD
Long Term Debt = 33.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 85.1b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 117b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 115b USD (calculated: Debt 117b - CCE 1.91b)
Enterprise Value = 132b USD (16.8b + Debt 117b - CCE 1.91b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.44 (Ebit TTM 7.19b / Interest Expense TTM 5.00b)
EV/FCF = -83.39x (Enterprise Value 132b / FCF TTM -1.58b)
FCF Yield = -1.20% (FCF TTM -1.58b / Enterprise Value 132b)
FCF Margin = -23.12% (FCF TTM -1.58b / Revenue TTM 6.84b)
Net Margin = 31.96% (Net Income TTM 2.19b / Revenue TTM 6.84b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 6.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 53.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 132b / Total Assets 139b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.28% (Interest Expense 5.00b / Debt 117b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 5.68b (EBIT 7.19b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.03 (Total Current Assets 2.72b / Total Current Liabilities 85.1b)
Debt / Equity = 7.18 (Debt 117b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.95 (Net Debt 115b / EBITDA 7.21b)
Debt / FCF = -72.74 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 115b / FCF TTM -1.58b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.2b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.79% (Net Income 2.19b / Total Assets 139b)
RoE = 14.41% (Net Income TTM 2.19b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.2b)
RoCE = 14.87% (EBIT 7.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.2b + L.T.Debt 33.2b))
RoIC = 4.11% (NOPAT 5.68b / Invested Capital 138b)
WACC = 3.97% (E(16.8b)/V(134b) * Re(8.10%) + D(117b)/V(134b) * Rd(4.28%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.56 | Cagr: 17.92%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.58b)
EPS Correlation: -29.64 | EPS CAGR: -2.45% | SUE: 1.08 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 87.63 | Revenue CAGR: 7.64% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.75 | Chg30d=+0.27% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.75 | Chg30d=+0.37% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.01 | Chg30d=+0.24% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+3.1% | GrowthRev=+104.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.99 | Chg30d=+0.52% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=-0.6% | GrowthRev=+12.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -12% (up=2, down=3)