NNI Stock Analysis: Nelnet | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.473m USD | 12M Return: -2.6% | US64031N1081 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 17.8M
EPS Trend: 85.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 53.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Nelnet, Inc. (NYSE: NNI) is a U.S.-based diversified financial services company headquartered in Lincoln, Nebraska, founded in 1977. It operates four business segments: Loan Servicing and Systems, Education Technology Services and Payments, Asset Generation and Management, and Nelnet Bank. The companys core activities include student loan servicing, education technology solutions for K-12 and higher education institutions, tuition payment processing, asset management of education loans, and internet-based industrial banking. Nelnet also pursues ancillary businesses in investment advisory, reinsurance, real estate, and solar engineering, procurement, and construction.
Nelnet is classified within the Financials sector (Consumer Finance sub-industry) and is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of approximately $4.4 billion. The firm is one of the largest U.S. student loan servicers and has increasingly pivoted toward private education lending, K-12 ed-tech, and Nelnet Bank following federal policy changes that reduced the volume of federally held student loans entering the servicing pipeline. Its business model combines fee-based servicing and technology services with balance-sheet lending and bank operations, creating diversified revenue streams tied to U.S. education finance.
- Federal student loan servicing contracts drive Loan Servicing segment revenue
- Nelnet Bank net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- EdTech tuition payment plan enrollment accelerates across K-12 schools
| Net Income: 302.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -48.20% < 20% (prev -27.40%; Δ -20.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 401.1m > Net Income 302.2m |
| Net Debt (5.50b) to EBITDA (525.2m): 10.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (36.0m) vs 12m ago -1.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 82.73% > 18% (prev 67.10%; Δ 15.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 13.28% > 50% (prev 14.21%; Δ -0.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.05 > 6 (EBIT TTM 480.7m / Interest Expense TTM 457.5m) |
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 2.56b - Total Current Liabilities 3.46b) / Total Assets 14.3b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 3.77b / Total Assets 14.3b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 480.7m / Avg Total Assets 14.0b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 3.77b / Total Liabilities 10.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.05 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 211.7m/182.1m, Revenue 1.86b/1.95b) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 67.10% / 82.73%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.81 / AQ_t-1 0.89) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 1.86b / 1.95b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 302.2m - CFO 401.1m) / TA 14.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 124.52 with a total of 132,352 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.17%, over one month by -0.50%, over three months by -5.95% and over the past year by -2.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 121.40 (which is 2.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Nelnet has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NNI.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 130 | 4.4% |
P/E Trailing = 14.9355
P/E Forward = 13.0548
P/S = 3.0045
P/B = 1.1864
P/EG = 0.4642
Revenue TTM = 1.86b USD
EBIT TTM = 480.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 525.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.22b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 15.9m
Net Debt = 5.50b USD (calculated: Debt 7.06b - CCE 1.56b)
Enterprise Value = 9.98b USD (4.47b + Debt 7.06b - CCE 1.56b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.05 (Ebit TTM 480.7m / Interest Expense TTM 457.5m)
EV/FCF = 27.40x (Enterprise Value 9.98b / FCF TTM 364.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.65% (FCF TTM 364.0m / Enterprise Value 9.98b)
FCF Margin = 19.60% (FCF TTM 364.0m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Net Margin = 16.27% (Net Income TTM 302.2m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Gross Margin = 82.73% ((Revenue TTM 1.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 320.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.55% (prev 86.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 9.98b / Total Assets 14.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.48% (Interest Expense 457.5m / Debt 7.06b)
Taxrate = 25.77% (83.5m / 323.9m)
NOPAT = 356.8m (EBIT 480.7m * (1 - 25.77%))
Current Ratio = 0.74 (Total Current Assets 2.56b / Total Current Liabilities 3.46b)
Debt / Equity = 1.87 (Debt 7.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.48 (Net Debt 5.50b / EBITDA 525.2m)
Debt / FCF = 15.12 (Net Debt 5.50b / FCF TTM 364.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.16% (Net Income 302.2m / Total Assets 14.3b)
RoE = 8.15% (Net Income TTM 302.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.71b)
RoCE = 5.04% (EBIT 480.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.71b + L.T.Debt 5.82b))
RoIC = 2.99% (NOPAT 356.8m / Invested Capital 11.9b)
WACC = 5.71% (E(4.47b)/V(11.5b) * Re(7.12%) + D(7.06b)/V(11.5b) * Rd(6.48%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -84.43 | Cagr: -1.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈417.0m ; Y1≈365.7m ; Y5≈295.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 4.74b - Net Debt 5.50b = -761.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 85.64 | EPS CAGR: 63.01% | SUE: -0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 53.61 | Revenue CAGR: 3.27% | SUE: -0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.85 | Chg30d=-11.48% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.50 | Chg30d=-8.31% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-36.4% | GrowthRev=-5.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.60 | Chg30d=-10.23% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+14.7% | GrowthRev=+6.4%