NNI Stock Analysis: Nelnet | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.513m USD | 12M Return: -0.6% | US64031N1081 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 16.8M
EPS Trend: 85.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 53.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Nelnet, Inc. (NYSE: NNI) is a U.S.-based diversified financial and services company headquartered in Lincoln, Nebraska, and founded in 1977. Listed on the NYSE since 2003, the company operates in the Financials sector (Consumer Finance sub-industry) and is classified as a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $4.6 billion. Nelnet organizes its operations into four reporting segments: Loan Servicing and Systems, Education Technology Services and Payments, Asset Generation and Management, and Nelnet Bank.
The Loan Servicing and Systems segment is the companys historical core, providing loan conversion, application processing, payment processing, and business process outsourcing (including contact center management) for student loan portfolios, along with proprietary servicing software. Nelnet is widely recognized as one of the largest third-party student loan servicers in the United States, a position reinforced by long-standing federal contracts to service government-held education loans.
The Education Technology Services and Payments segment offers a broad EdTech platform serving K-12 and higher education institutions, including school information systems, tuition payment plans, donation platforms, learning management systems, and campus payment processing. The Asset Generation and Management segment invests in and manages education loan assets, while Nelnet Bank operates as an internet-based industrial bank chartered in Nebraska. The company also diversifies into investment advisory, reinsurance, real estate investment, and a solar engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) business, reflecting a strategy of extending its education-focused financial infrastructure into adjacent services.
- Education Technology growth offsets legacy student loan servicing declines
- Nelnet Bank net interest margin tracks Fed rate path
- Department of Education contracts anchor recurring servicing revenue
| Net Income: 302.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -48.20% < 20% (prev -27.40%; Δ -20.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 401.1m > Net Income 302.2m |
| Net Debt (5.50b) to EBITDA (525.2m): 10.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (36.0m) vs 12m ago -1.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 82.73% > 18% (prev 67.10%; Δ 15.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 13.28% > 50% (prev 14.21%; Δ -0.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.05 > 6 (EBIT TTM 480.7m / Interest Expense TTM 457.5m) |
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 2.56b - Total Current Liabilities 3.46b) / Total Assets 14.3b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 3.77b / Total Assets 14.3b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 480.7m / Avg Total Assets 14.0b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 3.77b / Total Liabilities 10.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.05 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 211.7m/182.1m, Revenue 1.86b/1.95b) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 67.10% / 82.73%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.81 / AQ_t-1 0.89) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 1.86b / 1.95b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 302.2m - CFO 401.1m) / TA 14.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 127.03 with a total of 125,978 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.59%, over one month by -3.47%, over three months by -1.67% and over the past year by -0.62%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 122.60 (which is 3.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Nelnet has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NNI.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 130 | 2.3% |
P/E Trailing = 15.0143
P/E Forward = 15.361
P/S = 3.0312
P/B = 1.1925
P/EG = 0.4642
Revenue TTM = 1.86b USD
EBIT TTM = 480.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 525.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.22b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 15.9m
Net Debt = 5.50b USD (calculated: Debt 7.06b - CCE 1.56b)
Enterprise Value = 10.0b USD (4.51b + Debt 7.06b - CCE 1.56b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.05 (Ebit TTM 480.7m / Interest Expense TTM 457.5m)
EV/FCF = 27.51x (Enterprise Value 10.0b / FCF TTM 364.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.63% (FCF TTM 364.0m / Enterprise Value 10.0b)
FCF Margin = 19.60% (FCF TTM 364.0m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Net Margin = 16.27% (Net Income TTM 302.2m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Gross Margin = 82.73% ((Revenue TTM 1.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 320.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.55% (prev 86.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 10.0b / Total Assets 14.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.48% (Interest Expense 457.5m / Debt 7.06b)
Taxrate = 25.77% (83.5m / 323.9m)
NOPAT = 356.8m (EBIT 480.7m * (1 - 25.77%))
Current Ratio = 0.74 (Total Current Assets 2.56b / Total Current Liabilities 3.46b)
Debt / Equity = 1.87 (Debt 7.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.48 (Net Debt 5.50b / EBITDA 525.2m)
Debt / FCF = 15.12 (Net Debt 5.50b / FCF TTM 364.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.16% (Net Income 302.2m / Total Assets 14.3b)
RoE = 8.15% (Net Income TTM 302.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.71b)
RoCE = 5.04% (EBIT 480.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.71b + L.T.Debt 5.82b))
RoIC = 2.99% (NOPAT 356.8m / Invested Capital 11.9b)
WACC = 5.73% (E(4.51b)/V(11.6b) * Re(7.16%) + D(7.06b)/V(11.6b) * Rd(6.48%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -84.43 | Cagr: -1.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈417.0m ; Y1≈365.7m ; Y5≈295.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 4.74b - Net Debt 5.50b = -761.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 85.64 | EPS CAGR: 63.01% | SUE: -0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 53.61 | Revenue CAGR: 3.27% | SUE: -0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.85 | Chg30d=-11.48% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.50 | Chg30d=-8.31% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-36.4% | GrowthRev=-5.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.60 | Chg30d=-10.23% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+14.7% | GrowthRev=+6.4%