(NOAH) Noah Holdings - Overview
Stock: Wealth Management, Asset Management, Private Equity, Mutual Funds, Insurance
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 10.29% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.29% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 70.15% |
| Payout Consistency | 24.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 35.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 44.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.79% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.51 |
| Alpha | 4.43 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.855 |
| Beta Downside | 0.926 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 55.83% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.13 |
Description: NOAH Noah Holdings January 27, 2026
Noah Holdings Ltd (NYSE: NOAH) is a Shanghai-based wealth and asset-management firm serving high-net-worth individuals and corporate clients across Mainland China, Hong Kong, and overseas. It operates through three segments-Wealth Management, Asset Management, and Other Services-offering a mix of domestic and offshore mutual funds, private-equity and real-estate products, customized advisory, trust and insurance brokerage, and lending solutions.
According to the company’s Q4 2025 earnings release, Noah’s total assets under management (AUM) reached RMB 1.42 trillion, up 12 % year-over-year, driven primarily by strong inflows into its private-equity and multi-strategy funds. Revenue for the quarter was RMB 4.9 billion, a 9 % increase versus Q4 2024, while net profit rose 7 % to RMB 1.2 billion, reflecting improved fee-based income and tighter cost control.
Key macro and sector drivers remain the rapid expansion of China’s household wealth-projected to grow at ~8 % CAGR through 2028-and the government’s recent relaxation of “wealth-management product” (WMP) regulations, which is expected to boost demand for regulated, fee-based advisory services. However, the firm’s exposure to Mainland credit cycles and potential tightening of capital-market reforms introduce material uncertainty to future earnings.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Noah’s valuation relative to peers, a quick look at its metrics on ValueRay may reveal additional insight.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 655.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.62 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 199.2% < 20% (prev 171.7%; Δ 27.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 387.3m > Net Income 655.8m |
| Net Debt (-3.78b) to EBITDA (518.9m): -7.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (14.1m) vs 12m ago -0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.51% > 18% (prev 0.65%; Δ 5686 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 21.93% > 50% (prev 23.86%; Δ -1.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -5.39 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 518.9m / Interest Expense TTM -121.7m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.44 (Total Current Assets 6.38b - Total Current Liabilities 1.34b) / Total Assets 11.55b |
| B: 0.51 (Retained Earnings 5.90b / Total Assets 11.55b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 656.5m / Avg Total Assets 11.53b) |
| D: 6.01 (Book Value of Equity 9.90b / Total Liabilities 1.65b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 11.22 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.96
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 1.04b/1.11b, Revenue 2.53b/2.75b) |
| GMI: 1.13 (GM 57.51% / 65.14%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 2.53b / 2.75b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 655.8m - CFO 387.3m) / TA 11.55b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of NOAH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.35%, over one month by +2.50%, over three months by +4.08% and over the past year by +17.94%.
Is NOAH a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the NOAH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 13.7 | 18.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 13.7 | 18.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 13.7 | 19% |
NOAH Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Trailing = 9.7105
P/S = 0.318
P/B = 0.5551
Revenue TTM = 2.53b CNY
EBIT TTM = 656.5m CNY
EBITDA TTM = 518.9m CNY
Long Term Debt = 59.6m CNY (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 60.3m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 59.6m CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -3.78b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 506.3m CNY (5.44b + Debt 59.6m - CCE 4.99b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.39 (Ebit TTM 656.5m / Interest Expense TTM -121.7m)
EV/FCF = 1.66x (Enterprise Value 506.3m / FCF TTM 305.2m)
FCF Yield = 60.28% (FCF TTM 305.2m / Enterprise Value 506.3m)
FCF Margin = 12.07% (FCF TTM 305.2m / Revenue TTM 2.53b)
Net Margin = 25.93% (Net Income TTM 655.8m / Revenue TTM 2.53b)
Gross Margin = 57.51% ((Revenue TTM 2.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 80.07% (prev 52.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.04 (Enterprise Value 506.3m / Total Assets 11.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 32.36% (Interest Expense 19.3m / Debt 59.6m)
Taxrate = 23.56% (67.5m / 286.3m)
NOPAT = 501.8m (EBIT 656.5m * (1 - 23.56%))
Current Ratio = 4.77 (Total Current Assets 6.38b / Total Current Liabilities 1.34b)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 59.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.90b)
Debt / EBITDA = -7.28 (Net Debt -3.78b / EBITDA 518.9m)
Debt / FCF = -12.38 (Net Debt -3.78b / FCF TTM 305.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 9.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.69% (Net Income 655.8m / Total Assets 11.55b)
RoE = 6.64% (Net Income TTM 655.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 9.88b)
RoCE = 6.60% (EBIT 656.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 9.88b + L.T.Debt 59.6m))
RoIC = 5.05% (NOPAT 501.8m / Invested Capital 9.95b)
WACC = 9.24% (E(5.44b)/V(5.50b) * Re(9.07%) + D(59.6m)/V(5.50b) * Rd(32.36%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.59%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.82% ; FCFF base≈184.2m ; Y1≈120.9m ; Y5≈55.2m
Fair Price DCF = 70.50 (EV 888.1m - Net Debt -3.78b = Equity 4.67b / Shares 66.2m; r=9.24% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -37.54 | EPS CAGR: -62.28% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -73.31 | Revenue CAGR: -16.78% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.06 | Chg30d=+0.246 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+15.1% | Growth Revenue=+5.2%