(NOG) Northern Oil & Gas - Overview
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas E&P | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.584m USD | Total Return: -7.5% in 12m
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids
Total Rating 20
Safety 18
Buy Signal 1.06
Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: +23.6
Industry Rotation: +23.6
Market Cap:
2.58B
Avg Turnover: 55.0M
Avg Turnover: 55.0M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility47.2%
VaR 5th Pctl8.56%
VaR vs Median9.97%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Rel. Str. IBD39.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group13.7
Character TTM
Beta1.290
Beta Downside1.935
Hurst Exponent0.434
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD51.36%
CAGR/Max DD-0.06
CAGR/Mean DD-0.14
EPS (Earnings per Share)
EPS CAGR: -20.14%
EPS Trend: -84.9%
EPS Trend: -84.9%
Last SUE: -0.17
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue
Rev. CAGR: -0.27%
Rev. Trend: 24.8%
Rev. Trend: 24.8%
Last SUE: 0.38
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.9 is critical
Beneish M-Score 1.00 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Altman Z'' -0.35 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Choppy
Tailwinds
Tailwind, Pullback Swing
Description: NOG Northern Oil & Gas
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) is an independent energy company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas within the United States. Founded in 2006 and based in Minnesota, the firm operates primarily as a non-operator, a business model where the company owns working interests in leaseholds but allows larger exploration and production firms to manage daily drilling operations. This strategy reduces direct capital expenditure on infrastructure and personnel while providing diversified exposure to multiple shale basins.
The exploration and production sector is highly sensitive to commodity price fluctuations and regional pipeline capacity. To better understand how these market variables impact the companys intrinsic valuation, investors may find it useful to review the detailed financial models on ValueRay. Northern Oil and Gas continues to expand its portfolio through strategic acreage acquisitions in high-yield plays like the Williston, Permian, and Appalachian basins.
- Capital allocation strategy focused on non-operated minority interests drives cash flow
- Commodity price volatility impacts realized revenue from Bakken and Permian production
- High capital expenditure requirements for joint venture drilling pressure free cash flow
- Strategic acquisitions of high-quality acreage determine long-term production growth potential
- Hedging program effectiveness mitigates downside risk during energy market price corrections
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict)
4.5
| Net Income: -623.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -11.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -20.71% < 20% (prev -1.93%; Δ -18.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 > 3% & CFO 1.42b > Net Income -623.1m |
| Net Debt (2.51b) to EBITDA (967.4m): 2.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (98.5m) vs 12m ago -1.49% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.58% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 3.02k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 36.80% > 50% (prev 38.93%; Δ -2.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.94 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 967.4m / Interest Expense TTM 171.1m) |
Altman Z''
-0.35
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 472.9m - Total Current Liabilities 899.4m) / Total Assets 5.51b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -41.6m / Total Assets 5.51b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 161.2m / Avg Total Assets 5.59b) |
| D: -0.01 (Book Value of Equity -41.1m / Total Liabilities 3.73b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.35 = B |
Beneish M
1.00
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 409.2m/419.5m, Revenue 2.06b/2.21b) |
| GMI: 1.27 (GM 30.58% / 38.76%) |
| AQI: 336.5 (AQ_t 0.91 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 2.06b / 2.21b) |
| TATA: -0.37 (NI -623.1m - CFO 1.42b) / TA 5.51b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 195.8 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of NOG shares?
As of May 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 24.43 with a total of 6,942,631 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.40%, over one month by -0.49%, over three months by -2.85% and over the past year by -7.53%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.40%, over one month by -0.49%, over three months by -2.85% and over the past year by -7.53%.
Is NOG a buy, sell or hold?
Northern Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.90.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy NOG.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NOG price?
| Analysts Target Price | 36.1 | 47.8% |
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) - Fundamental Data Overview
as of 17 May 2026
P/E Forward = 5.5463 P/S = 1.3424
P/B = 1.3873
P/EG = 0.5583
Revenue TTM = 2.06b USD
EBIT TTM = 161.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 967.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 2.55b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.51b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.10b USD (2.58b + Debt 2.55b - CCE 37.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.94 (Ebit TTM 161.2m / Interest Expense TTM 171.1m)
EV/FCF = -6.80x (Enterprise Value 5.10b / FCF TTM -749.4m)
FCF Yield = -14.70% (FCF TTM -749.4m / Enterprise Value 5.10b)
FCF Margin = -36.40% (FCF TTM -749.4m / Revenue TTM 2.06b)
Net Margin = -30.26% (Net Income TTM -623.1m / Revenue TTM 2.06b)
Gross Margin = 30.58% ((Revenue TTM 2.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.43b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.88% (prev 21.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 5.10b / Total Assets 5.51b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.67% (Interest Expense 42.6m / Debt 2.55b)
Taxrate = 38.19% (23.9m / 62.7m)
NOPAT = 99.6m (EBIT 161.2m * (1 - 38.19%))
Current Ratio = 0.53 (Total Current Assets 472.9m / Total Current Liabilities 899.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.43 (Debt 2.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.78b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.60 (Net Debt 2.51b / EBITDA 967.4m)
Debt / FCF = -3.36 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.51b / FCF TTM -749.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -11.14% (Net Income -623.1m / Total Assets 5.51b)
RoE = -29.09% (Net Income TTM -623.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.14b)
RoCE = 3.43% (EBIT 161.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.14b + L.T.Debt 2.55b))
RoIC = 2.19% (NOPAT 99.6m / Invested Capital 4.56b)
WACC = 5.81% (E(2.58b)/V(5.14b) * Re(10.52%) + D(2.55b)/V(5.14b) * Rd(1.67%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 10.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -42.43 | Cagr: 3.31%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -749.4m)
EPS Correlation: -84.90 | EPS CAGR: -20.14% | SUE: -0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 24.82 | Revenue CAGR: -0.27% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=+9.18% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+7.97% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.48 | Chg30d=-6.75% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=-23.8% | GrowthRev=-19.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.90 | Chg30d=+2.57% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+11.9% | GrowthRev=+15.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -20%