(NOG) Northern Oil & Gas - NYSE
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas E&P | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.221m USD | Total Return: -29.5% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 56.1M
EPS Trend: -95.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 71.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (15.9) with thin interest coverage (-3.8)
High Debt while negative Cash Flow
Interest Coverage Ratio -3.8 is critical
Beneish M-Score 1.00 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Altman Z'' -0.81 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) is an independent energy company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas within the United States. Founded in 2006 and based in Minnesota, the firm operates primarily as a non-operator, a business model where the company owns working interests in leaseholds but allows larger exploration and production firms to manage daily drilling operations. This strategy reduces direct capital expenditure on infrastructure and personnel while providing diversified exposure to multiple shale basins.
The exploration and production sector is highly sensitive to commodity price fluctuations and regional pipeline capacity. To better understand how these market variables impact the companys intrinsic valuation, investors may find it useful to review the detailed financial models on ValueRay. Northern Oil and Gas continues to expand its portfolio through strategic acreage acquisitions in high-yield plays like the Williston, Permian, and Appalachian basins.
- Capital allocation strategy focused on non-operated minority interests drives cash flow
- Commodity price volatility impacts realized revenue from Bakken and Permian production
- High capital expenditure requirements for joint venture drilling pressure free cash flow
- Strategic acquisitions of high-quality acreage determine long-term production growth potential
- Hedging program effectiveness mitigates downside risk during energy market price corrections
| Net Income: -623.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -11.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -20.71% < 20% (prev -1.93%; Δ -18.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 > 3% & CFO 1.42b > Net Income -623.1m |
| Net Debt (2.51b) to EBITDA (158.4m): 15.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (98.5m) vs 12m ago -1.49% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.58% > 18% (prev 38.76%; Δ -8.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 36.80% > 50% (prev 38.93%; Δ -2.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.79 > 6 (EBIT TTM -647.9m / Interest Expense TTM 171.1m) |
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 472.9m - Total Current Liabilities 899.4m) / Total Assets 5.51b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -41.6m / Total Assets 5.51b) |
| C: -0.12 (EBIT TTM -647.9m / Avg Total Assets 5.59b) |
| D: 0.48 (Book Value of Equity 1.78b / Total Liabilities 3.73b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.81 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 409.2m/419.5m, Revenue 2.06b/2.21b) |
| GMI: 1.27 (GM 38.76% / 30.58%) |
| AQI: 336.5 (AQ_t 0.91 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 2.06b / 2.21b) |
| TATA: -0.37 (NI -623.1m - CFO 1.42b) / TA 5.51b) |
| Beneish M = 196.1 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of June 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 20.79 with a total of 2,321,656 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.91%,
over one month by -11.00%,
over three months by -23.00% and
over the past year by -29.45%.
Northern Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.78. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NOG.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 34.4 | 65.7% |
P/E Forward = 5.0582
P/S = 1.1538
P/B = 1.3016
P/EG = 0.5583
Revenue TTM = 2.06b USD
EBIT TTM = -647.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 158.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 2.55b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.51b USD (calculated: Debt 2.55b - CCE 37.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.74b USD (2.22b + Debt 2.55b - CCE 37.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.79 (Ebit TTM -647.9m / Interest Expense TTM 171.1m)
EV/FCF = -6.32x (Enterprise Value 4.74b / FCF TTM -749.4m)
FCF Yield = -15.82% (FCF TTM -749.4m / Enterprise Value 4.74b)
FCF Margin = -36.40% (FCF TTM -749.4m / Revenue TTM 2.06b)
Net Margin = -30.26% (Net Income TTM -623.1m / Revenue TTM 2.06b)
Gross Margin = 30.58% ((Revenue TTM 2.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.43b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.88% (prev 21.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 4.74b / Total Assets 5.51b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.71% (Interest Expense 171.1m / Debt 2.55b)
Taxrate = 38.19% (23.9m / 62.7m)
NOPAT = -400.5m (EBIT -647.9m * (1 - 38.19%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.53 (Total Current Assets 472.9m / Total Current Liabilities 899.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.43 (Debt 2.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.78b)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.88 (Net Debt 2.51b / EBITDA 158.4m)
Debt / FCF = -3.36 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.51b / FCF TTM -749.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -11.14% (Net Income -623.1m / Total Assets 5.51b)
RoE = -29.09% (Net Income TTM -623.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.14b)
RoCE = -13.80% (EBIT -647.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.14b + L.T.Debt 2.55b))
RoIC = -8.75% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -400.5m / Invested Capital 4.58b)
WACC = 7.05% (E(2.22b)/V(4.77b) * Re(10.39%) + D(2.55b)/V(4.77b) * Rd(6.71%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 10.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -60.0 | Cagr: -0.59%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -749.4m)
EPS Correlation: -95.83 | EPS CAGR: -15.35% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.63 | Revenue CAGR: 6.04% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.98 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+11% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.03 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+11% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.85 | Chg30d=+10.74% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-15.7% | GrowthRev=-21.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.15 | Chg30d=+6.50% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+7.6% | GrowthRev=+21.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +20%