NOG Stock Analysis: Northern Oil & Gas | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.638m USD | 12M Return: 18.9% | US6655313079 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 49.0M
EPS Trend: -96.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 66.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota, and has been publicly traded since its 2007 IPO.
The company operates as an independent exploration and production (E&P) firm, focusing exclusively on upstream activities such as drilling, completion, and hydrocarbon recovery, rather than the midstream or downstream segments such as transportation, refining, or retail fuel sales that integrated oil majors typically handle. As a U.S.-focused E&P operating within the Energy sector, Northern Oil and Gas is classified as a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of approximately $2.56 billion USD.
- WTI crude oil prices drive revenue and free cash flow
- Non-op acquisition strategy expands Williston Basin acreage and production
- Variable dividend returns excess capital to shareholders tied to oil prices
- Hedging program insulates cash flow from oil price volatility
| Net Income: -486.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -10.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5.77% < 20% (prev 4.51%; Δ -10.27% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.24 > 3% & CFO 1.38b > Net Income -486.0m |
| Net Debt (2.68b) to EBITDA (321.4m): 8.33 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.80 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (108.1m) vs 12m ago 8.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.45% > 18% (prev 37.49%; Δ -3.04% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.61% > 50% (prev 38.98%; Δ -0.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.81 > 6 (EBIT TTM -472.1m / Interest Expense TTM 168.1m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 502.1m - Total Current Liabilities 630.5m) / Total Assets 5.83b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 195.1m / Total Assets 5.83b) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -472.1m / Avg Total Assets 5.77b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 2.00b / Total Liabilities 3.83b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.04 = B |
| DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 395.6m/422.1m, Revenue 2.23b/2.22b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 37.49% / 34.45%) |
| AQI: 248.2 (AQ_t 0.91 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 2.23b / 2.22b) |
| TATA: -0.32 (NI -486.0m - CFO 1.38b) / TA 5.83b) |
| Beneish M = 143.5 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.42 with a total of 1,244,000 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.78%, over one month by -1.66%, over three months by +27.32% and over the past year by +18.91%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 24.20 (which is 4.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Northern Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.56. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NOG.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 30.6 | 20.2% |
P/E Forward = 4.5641
P/S = 1.3111
P/B = 1.2357
P/EG = 7.3495
Revenue TTM = 2.23b USD
EBIT TTM = -472.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 321.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 2.72b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.68b USD (calculated: Debt 2.72b - CCE 47.6m)
Enterprise Value = 5.32b USD (2.64b + Debt 2.72b - CCE 47.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.81 (Ebit TTM -472.1m / Interest Expense TTM 168.1m)
EV/FCF = -6.34x (Enterprise Value 5.32b / FCF TTM -838.5m)
FCF Yield = -15.77% (FCF TTM -838.5m / Enterprise Value 5.32b)
FCF Margin = -37.67% (FCF TTM -838.5m / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Net Margin = -21.83% (Net Income TTM -486.0m / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Gross Margin = 34.45% ((Revenue TTM 2.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.46b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.31% (prev 32.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 5.32b / Total Assets 5.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.17% (Interest Expense 168.1m / Debt 2.72b)
Taxrate = 23.81% (74.0m / 310.6m)
NOPAT = -359.6m (EBIT -472.1m * (1 - 23.81%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.80 (Total Current Assets 502.1m / Total Current Liabilities 630.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.37 (Debt 2.72b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.33 (Net Debt 2.68b / EBITDA 321.4m)
Debt / FCF = -3.19 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.68b / FCF TTM -838.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.43% (Net Income -486.0m / Total Assets 5.83b)
RoE = -23.85% (Net Income TTM -486.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.04b)
RoCE = -9.91% (EBIT -472.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.04b + L.T.Debt 2.72b))
RoIC = -6.98% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -359.6m / Invested Capital 5.15b)
WACC = 6.65% (E(2.64b)/V(5.36b) * Re(8.66%) + D(2.72b)/V(5.36b) * Rd(6.17%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 8.44 | Cagr: 2.77%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -838.5m)
EPS Correlation: -96.72 | EPS CAGR: -17.77% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 66.08 | Revenue CAGR: 4.94% | SUE: 1.61 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=-1.42% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.95 | Chg30d=-2.68% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-13.5% | GrowthRev=-17.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.55 | Chg30d=+3.78% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+15.3% | GrowthRev=+14.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +11% (up=9, down=7)