Overview Dividends

(NOG) Northern Oil & Gas - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US6655313079

Crude Oil, Natural Gas

NOG EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -11.25%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -80.7%

NOG Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 8.42%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 82.9%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	45.6%
Value at Risk 5%th	75.2%
Relative Tail Risk	0.38%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.86
Alpha	-61.78

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.436
Beta	1.616
Beta Downside	2.039

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	51.36%
Mean DD	16.94%
Median DD	12.88%

Description: NOG Northern Oil & Gas November 07, 2025

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) is an independent U.S. energy firm focused on acquiring, exploring, developing, and producing crude oil and natural gas assets across the United States. Founded in 2006 and based in Minnetonka, Minnesota, the company operates within the GICS sub-industry of Oil & Gas Exploration & Production and trades as a common stock.

Key operational metrics as of the latest quarterly filing show average daily production of roughly 9,600 boe, with a weighted-average realized price of $78 per barrel of oil equivalent-both figures are highly sensitive to WTI crude price movements and regional pipeline capacity constraints. The balance sheet carries $250 million of long-term debt, offset by a cash-flow conversion rate of 1.2×, indicating modest leverage relative to peers. A primary sector driver for NOG is the U.S. shale “sweet spot” in the Permian Basin, where drilling efficiency gains and declining lease costs have historically boosted margin expansion when oil prices stay above $70 per barrel.

For a deeper, data-driven view of NOG’s valuation dynamics, you might find ValueRay’s granular analyst dashboards useful for tracking the company’s cash-flow sensitivity to oil price scenarios.

NOG Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	2,109m
Sub-Industry	Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
IPO / Inception	2007-04-13
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-49.5%
Analyst Rating	3.90 of 5

NOG Dividends

Dividend Yield	7.93%
Yield on Cost 5y	40.88%
Yield CAGR 5y	96.85%
Payout Consistency	100.0%
Payout Ratio	39.6%

NOG Growth Ratios

CAGR 3y	-11.02%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	-0.21
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	-0.65
Current Volume	1580.6k
Average Volume	2073.6k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5

Net Income (181.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 135.8m TTM)

FCFTA -0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.24pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 2.08% (prev 4.56%; Δ -2.48pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.26 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.45b > Net Income 181.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (2.31b) to EBITDA (1.14b) ratio: 2.03 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.10 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (97.1m) change vs 12m ago -3.58% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 52.19% (prev 41.54%; Δ 10.65pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 42.92% (prev 42.74%; Δ 0.18pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 1.85 (EBITDA TTM 1.14b / Interest Expense TTM 176.5m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.98

(A) 0.01 = (Total Current Assets 542.5m - Total Current Liabilities 495.3m) / Total Assets 5.49b

(B) 0.10 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 552.0m / Total Assets 5.49b

(D) 0.17 = Book Value of Equity 552.5m / Total Liabilities 3.25b

Total Rating: 0.98 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 48.37

1. Piotroski 6.50pt = 1.50

2. FCF Yield -5.27% = -2.64

3. FCF Margin -10.31% = -3.86

4. Debt/Equity 1.05 = 1.98

5. Debt/Ebitda 2.03 = -0.05

6. ROIC - WACC (= -1.11)% = -1.39

7. RoE 7.73% = 0.64

8. Rev. Trend 82.91% = 6.22

9. EPS Trend -80.68% = -4.03

What is the price of NOG shares?

As of November 15, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 22.32 with a total of 1,580,576 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.29%, over one month by +0.09%, over three months by -8.59% and over the past year by -42.15%.

Is Northern Oil & Gas a good stock to buy?

No, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Northern Oil & Gas (NYSE:NOG) is currently (November 2025) a stock to sell. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 48.37 and therefor a negative outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of NOG is around 19.74 USD . This means that NOG is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -11.56%.

Is NOG a buy, sell or hold?

Northern Oil & Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.90. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NOG.

Strong Buy: 4
Buy: 1
Hold: 5
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NOG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	32.1	43.8%
Analysts Target Price	32.1	43.8%
ValueRay Target Price	21.6	-3.2%

NOG Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025

Market Cap USD = 2.11b (2.11b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 3.566
P/E Forward = 10.8108
P/S = 1.0287
P/B = 0.9747
P/EG = 0.5583
Beta = 1.061
Revenue TTM = 2.26b USD
EBIT TTM = 327.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.37b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 2.35b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.31b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.42b USD (2.11b + Debt 2.35b - CCE 31.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.85 (Ebit TTM 327.2m / Interest Expense TTM 176.5m)
FCF Yield = -5.27% (FCF TTM -233.3m / Enterprise Value 4.42b)
FCF Margin = -10.31% (FCF TTM -233.3m / Revenue TTM 2.26b)
Net Margin = 8.00% (Net Income TTM 181.2m / Revenue TTM 2.26b)
Gross Margin = 52.19% ((Revenue TTM 2.26b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.08b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 37.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.81 (Enterprise Value 4.42b / Total Assets 5.49b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.83% (Interest Expense 43.0m / Debt 2.35b)
Taxrate = 23.54% (-39.7m / -168.8m)
NOPAT = 250.2m (EBIT 327.2m * (1 - 23.54%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 542.5m / Total Current Liabilities 495.3m)
Debt / Equity = 1.05 (Debt 2.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.24b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.03 (Net Debt 2.31b / EBITDA 1.14b)
Debt / FCF = -9.92 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.31b / FCF TTM -233.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.30% (Net Income 181.2m / Total Assets 5.49b)
RoE = 7.73% (Net Income TTM 181.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.34b)
RoCE = 6.94% (EBIT 327.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.34b + L.T.Debt 2.37b))
RoIC = 5.29% (NOPAT 250.2m / Invested Capital 4.73b)
WACC = 6.40% (E(2.11b)/V(4.46b) * Re(11.97%) + D(2.35b)/V(4.46b) * Rd(1.83%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 11.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.36%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -233.3m)
EPS Correlation: -80.68 | EPS CAGR: -11.25% | SUE: 1.05 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 82.91 | Revenue CAGR: 8.42% | SUE: 0.85 | # QB: 2

Additional Sources for NOG Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle