(NRG) NRG Energy - NYSE
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 27.878m USD | Total Return: -7.6% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 317M
EPS Trend: 65.5%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 41.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
P/E ratio 145.2
High Debt/EBITDA (7.9) with thin interest coverage (0.6)
High Debt while negative Cash Flow
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.6 is critical
Altman Z'' 0.09 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Fakeout Choppy
Tailwinds
Tailwind
NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is an integrated energy and home services provider headquartered in Houston, Texas. The company operates across multiple segments, including Texas, East, and West/Other, and maintains a diverse brand portfolio featuring names such as Reliant, Direct Energy, and Green Mountain Energy. Its core business model integrates retail electricity sales with power generation assets, utilizing a mix of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources to serve residential, industrial, and data center customers.
The company has expanded beyond traditional utility services through its acquisition of Vivint Smart Home, integrating home security, automation, and energy management into a unified consumer platform. This transition reflects a shift toward the integrated home model, where utilities leverage smart technology to manage demand response and virtual power plant programs. In addition to physical power delivery, NRG maintains an active trading arm that manages risk through financial derivatives, including futures, options, and swaps for power and natural gas.
Further analysis of NRGs cash flow and valuation metrics on ValueRay can provide deeper insight into its long-term growth trajectory. As a competitive retail energy provider, NRG differs from traditional regulated utilities by operating in deregulated markets where pricing is determined by market competition rather than government-set rates.
- Texas electricity demand growth accelerates from data center and industrial expansion
- Integration of Vivint Smart Home services boosts recurring retail subscriber margins
- Natural gas price volatility impacts generation costs and wholesale power market spreads
- Regulatory shifts in ERCOT market structure influence long-term capacity revenue stability
- Debt leverage levels and capital allocation toward share buybacks drive valuation multiples
| Net Income: 239.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -9.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5.94% < 20% (prev 1.96%; Δ -7.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 889.0m > Net Income 239.0m |
| Net Debt (20.2b) to EBITDA (2.57b): 7.87 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (208.0m) vs 12m ago 2.46% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.07% > 18% (prev 21.47%; Δ -4.40% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 99.71% > 50% (prev 117.2%; Δ -17.48% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 505.0m / Interest Expense TTM 894.0m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 9.92b - Total Current Liabilities 11.8b) / Total Assets 40.1b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 1.97b / Total Assets 40.1b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 505.0m / Avg Total Assets 32.5b) |
| D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 4.87b / Total Liabilities 35.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.09 = B |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 3.78b/3.51b, Revenue 32.4b/29.3b) |
| GMI: 1.26 (GM 21.47% / 17.07%) |
| AQI: 0.80 (AQ_t 0.41 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 32.4b / 29.3b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 239.0m - CFO 889.0m) / TA 40.1b) |
| Beneish M = -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 138.91 with a total of 5,304,126 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.71%, over one month by +0.92%, over three months by -8.19% and over the past year by -7.60%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 131.30 (which is 5.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
NRG Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.41. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NRG.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 199.5 | 43.6% |
P/E Trailing = 145.1978
P/E Forward = 12.5156
P/S = 0.8608
P/B = 6.5998
P/EG = 0.455
Revenue TTM = 32.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 505.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.57b USD
Long Term Debt = 19.8b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.41b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 203.0m
Net Debt = 20.2b USD (calculated: Debt 23.6b - CCE 3.32b)
Enterprise Value = 48.1b USD (27.9b + Debt 23.6b - CCE 3.32b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.56 (Ebit TTM 505.0m / Interest Expense TTM 894.0m)
EV/FCF = -134.4x (Enterprise Value 48.1b / FCF TTM -358.0m)
FCF Yield = -0.74% (FCF TTM -358.0m / Enterprise Value 48.1b)
FCF Margin = -1.10% (FCF TTM -358.0m / Revenue TTM 32.4b)
Net Margin = 0.74% (Net Income TTM 239.0m / Revenue TTM 32.4b)
Gross Margin = 17.07% ((Revenue TTM 32.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.25% (prev 32.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 48.1b / Total Assets 40.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.79% (Interest Expense 894.0m / Debt 23.6b)
Taxrate = 19.85% (214.0m / 1.08b)
NOPAT = 404.7m (EBIT 505.0m * (1 - 19.85%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 9.92b / Total Current Liabilities 11.8b)
Debt / Equity = 4.83 (Debt 23.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.87 (Net Debt 20.2b / EBITDA 2.57b)
Debt / FCF = -56.55 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 20.2b / FCF TTM -358.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.73% (Net Income 239.0m / Total Assets 40.1b)
RoE = 8.84% (Net Income TTM 239.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.70b)
RoCE = 2.25% (EBIT 505.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.70b + L.T.Debt 19.8b))
RoIC = 1.35% (NOPAT 404.7m / Invested Capital 30.0b)
WACC = 8.06% (E(27.9b)/V(51.4b) * Re(12.30%) + D(23.6b)/V(51.4b) * Rd(3.79%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 12.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -71.91 | Cagr: -2.85%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -358.0m)
EPS Correlation: 65.55 | EPS CAGR: 33.38% | SUE: -1.76 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 41.90 | Revenue CAGR: 1.93% | SUE: 1.46 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=-4.22% | Revisions=+14% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.91 | Chg30d=-1.57% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.24 | Chg30d=+3.87% | Revisions=-11% | GrowthEPS=+12.2% | GrowthRev=+13.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.62 | Chg30d=+1.83% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+25.7% | GrowthRev=+4.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +14%