(NRG) NRG Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Natural Gas, Retail Energy, Home Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.04% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.22% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.99% |
| Payout Consistency | 87.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 20.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 63.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.19% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.16 |
| Alpha | 63.41 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.48 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.429 |
| Beta | 1.677 |
| Beta Downside | 1.690 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 26.22% |
| Mean DD | 7.71% |
| Median DD | 5.82% |
Description: NRG NRG Energy October 14, 2025
NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NRG) and its subsidiaries operate as an integrated energy and home-services company across the United States and Canada, organized into six reporting segments: Texas; East; West/Services/Other; Vivint Smart Home; Corporate Activities; and a catch-all “Other.”
The firm generates and sells electricity from a diversified mix of sources-coal, oil, natural gas, solar, and battery storage-while also delivering a cloud-based smart-home platform that includes hardware, software, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring.
Beyond generation, NRG offers a broad retail portfolio: electricity supply, energy-management tools, line and surge protection, HVAC installation and maintenance, home-protection products, carbon offsets, demand-response programs, commodity sales, and energy-efficiency solutions. Its distributed-generation and low-carbon offerings encompass backup generation, storage, distributed solar, and advisory services.
The company actively trades power, natural-gas, environmental, weather, and financial derivatives (forwards, futures, options, swaps) to hedge exposure and capture market opportunities. Its brands-including NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint-serve residential, commercial, government, industrial, and wholesale customers.
Founded in 1989 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, NRG reported adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.1 billion for FY 2023 and operates roughly 30 GW of generation capacity, with renewable assets now representing about 30 % of its net generation mix-a figure that is expected to rise as state-level decarbonization policies tighten. The firm’s earnings are particularly sensitive to natural-gas price volatility and to the regulatory trajectory of carbon-pricing mechanisms in its key markets.
For a deeper quantitative view of NRG’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform provides a concise dashboard of forward-looking fundamentals.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income (1.44b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.79b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.05pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 1.38% (prev 4.49%; Δ -3.11pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.74b > Net Income 1.44b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (11.35b) to EBITDA (3.79b) ratio: 2.99 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.05 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (195.0m) change vs 12m ago -5.80% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 20.54% (prev 16.09%; Δ 4.45pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 124.9% (prev 118.5%; Δ 6.35pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.90 (EBITDA TTM 3.79b / Interest Expense TTM 617.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.15
| (A) 0.02 = (Total Current Assets 8.12b - Total Current Liabilities 7.71b) / Total Assets 23.97b |
| (B) 0.08 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.00b / Total Assets 23.97b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 2.41b / Avg Total Assets 23.85b |
| (D) 0.09 = Book Value of Equity 1.90b / Total Liabilities 22.00b |
| Total Rating: 1.15 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 58.81
| 1. Piotroski 7.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.24% |
| 3. FCF Margin 5.73% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 6.15 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.99 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.93)% |
| 7. RoE 60.59% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -16.20% |
| 9. EPS Trend 41.16% |
What is the price of NRG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.46%, over one month by -1.64%, over three months by +14.30% and over the past year by +69.08%.
Is NRG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the NRG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 208.1 | 22.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 208.1 | 22.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 263.4 | 55.4% |
NRG Fundamental Data Overview November 22, 2025
P/E Trailing = 23.7967
P/E Forward = 18.3486
P/S = 1.0341
P/B = 23.2958
P/EG = 1.2152
Beta = 1.25
Revenue TTM = 29.78b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.41b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.79b USD
Long Term Debt = 11.15b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 813.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 11.35b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 40.22b USD (30.79b + Debt 12.11b - CCE 2.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.90 (Ebit TTM 2.41b / Interest Expense TTM 617.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.24% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Enterprise Value 40.22b)
FCF Margin = 5.73% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Revenue TTM 29.78b)
Net Margin = 4.84% (Net Income TTM 1.44b / Revenue TTM 29.78b)
Gross Margin = 20.54% ((Revenue TTM 29.78b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.66b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.54% (prev 16.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.68 (Enterprise Value 40.22b / Total Assets 23.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.55% (Interest Expense 188.0m / Debt 12.11b)
Taxrate = 36.13% (86.0m / 238.0m)
NOPAT = 1.54b (EBIT 2.41b * (1 - 36.13%))
Current Ratio = 1.05 (Total Current Assets 8.12b / Total Current Liabilities 7.71b)
Debt / Equity = 6.15 (Debt 12.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.97b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.99 (Net Debt 11.35b / EBITDA 3.79b)
Debt / FCF = 6.65 (Net Debt 11.35b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.38b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.01% (Net Income 1.44b / Total Assets 23.97b)
RoE = 60.59% (Net Income TTM 1.44b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.38b)
RoCE = 17.79% (EBIT 2.41b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.38b + L.T.Debt 11.15b))
RoIC = 11.96% (NOPAT 1.54b / Invested Capital 12.85b)
WACC = 9.03% (E(30.79b)/V(42.91b) * Re(12.19%) + D(12.11b)/V(42.91b) * Rd(1.55%) * (1-Tc(0.36)))
Discount Rate = 12.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.28%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 54.31% ; FCFE base≈1.51b ; Y1≈988.6m ; Y5≈452.1m
Fair Price DCF = 27.39 (DCF Value 5.25b / Shares Outstanding 191.6m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 41.16 | EPS CAGR: 21.08% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -16.20 | Revenue CAGR: 2.16% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for NRG Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle