NRG Stock Analysis: NRG Energy | NYSE
Utilities - Independent Power Producers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 29.707m USD | 12M Return: -10.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 350M
EPS Trend: 70.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 41.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
NRG Energy is a U.S. and Canadian energy and home services company that operates across five segments: Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities. It generates and sells electricity through a mix of fossil fuel and renewable assets, while also trading power, natural gas, environmental, and financial products. Beyond generation, NRG provides retail electricity, energy management, demand response, virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, and carbon management solutions to residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. Its consumer-facing brands include NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. Founded in 1989, the company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
NRG operates as a competitive power generator and retail electricity provider, distinguishing it from regulated monopoly utilities that have guaranteed rate-of-return service territories. A meaningful share of its business is concentrated in Texas, where the retail electricity market is deregulated, allowing providers to compete directly for customers. The company has also expanded into adjacent consumer services through Vivint Smart Home, adding recurring-revenue subscription offerings such as home security, automation, and professional monitoring to its traditional energy business.
- Texas data center boom lifts NRG generation volumes and prices
- Natural gas and power spread volatility swings retail margins
- Vivint Smart Home subscriber growth accelerates recurring revenue
| Net Income: 239.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -9.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5.94% < 20% (prev 1.96%; Δ -7.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 889.0m > Net Income 239.0m |
| Net Debt (20.2b) to EBITDA (2.57b): 7.87 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (208.0m) vs 12m ago 2.46% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.07% > 18% (prev 21.47%; Δ -4.40% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 99.71% > 50% (prev 117.2%; Δ -17.48% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 505.0m / Interest Expense TTM 894.0m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 9.92b - Total Current Liabilities 11.8b) / Total Assets 40.1b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 1.97b / Total Assets 40.1b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 505.0m / Avg Total Assets 32.5b) |
| D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 4.87b / Total Liabilities 35.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.09 = B |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 3.78b/3.51b, Revenue 32.4b/29.3b) |
| GMI: 1.26 (GM 21.47% / 17.07%) |
| AQI: 0.80 (AQ_t 0.41 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 32.4b / 29.3b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 239.0m - CFO 889.0m) / TA 40.1b) |
| Beneish M = -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 141.01 with a total of 1,655,016 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.59%, over one month by +10.41%, over three months by -5.58% and over the past year by -10.12%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 133.30 (which is 5.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
NRG Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.41. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NRG.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 198.9 | 41% |
P/E Trailing = 154.7253
P/E Forward = 13.8313
P/S = 0.9173
P/B = 7.2956
P/EG = 0.503
Revenue TTM = 32.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 505.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.57b USD
Long Term Debt = 19.8b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.41b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 203.0m
Net Debt = 20.2b USD (calculated: Debt 23.6b - CCE 3.32b)
Enterprise Value = 50.0b USD (29.7b + Debt 23.6b - CCE 3.32b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.56 (Ebit TTM 505.0m / Interest Expense TTM 894.0m)
EV/FCF = -139.5x (Enterprise Value 50.0b / FCF TTM -358.0m)
FCF Yield = -0.72% (FCF TTM -358.0m / Enterprise Value 50.0b)
FCF Margin = -1.10% (FCF TTM -358.0m / Revenue TTM 32.4b)
Net Margin = 0.74% (Net Income TTM 239.0m / Revenue TTM 32.4b)
Gross Margin = 17.07% ((Revenue TTM 32.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.25% (prev 32.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.25 (Enterprise Value 50.0b / Total Assets 40.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.79% (Interest Expense 894.0m / Debt 23.6b)
Taxrate = 19.85% (214.0m / 1.08b)
NOPAT = 404.7m (EBIT 505.0m * (1 - 19.85%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 9.92b / Total Current Liabilities 11.8b)
Debt / Equity = 4.83 (Debt 23.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.87 (Net Debt 20.2b / EBITDA 2.57b)
Debt / FCF = -56.55 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 20.2b / FCF TTM -358.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.73% (Net Income 239.0m / Total Assets 40.1b)
RoE = 8.84% (Net Income TTM 239.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.70b)
RoCE = 2.25% (EBIT 505.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.70b + L.T.Debt 19.8b))
RoIC = 1.35% (NOPAT 404.7m / Invested Capital 30.0b)
WACC = 8.15% (E(29.7b)/V(53.3b) * Re(12.20%) + D(23.6b)/V(53.3b) * Rd(3.79%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 12.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -71.91 | Cagr: -2.85%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -358.0m)
EPS Correlation: 70.91 | EPS CAGR: 36.45% | SUE: -0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 41.90 | Revenue CAGR: 1.93% | SUE: 1.46 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.73 | Chg30d=+5.51% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.10 | Chg30d=+9.86% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.24 | Chg30d=+3.86% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+12.2% | GrowthRev=+13.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.58 | Chg30d=+1.47% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+25.3% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=7, down=7)