(NVR) NVR - Overview
Stock: Homes, Townhomes, Condominiums, Mortgages, Title
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.66% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.14 |
| Alpha | -7.72 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.467 |
| Beta Downside | 0.080 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.49% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.46 |
Description: NVR NVR December 19, 2025
NVR, Inc. (NYSE: NVR) is a U.S. homebuilder that operates through two segments: Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking. It constructs and sells single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominiums under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands, targeting first-time, move-up, and luxury buyers. The Mortgage Banking segment offers financing, title-insurance brokerage, and secondary-market loan sales to its homebuilding customers. NVR’s geographic footprint spans the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Southeast, and the Washington, D.C. metro area.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue of approximately $9.1 billion, net income of $1.8 billion, and an operating margin exceeding 20 %, reflecting the company’s low-cost, high-efficiency business model. NVR maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio below 0.3 and generated free cash flow of roughly $2.5 billion, enabling aggressive land acquisition and shareholder returns. The homebuilding sector’s performance is highly sensitive to mortgage-rate movements and housing-starts data; NVR’s focus on higher-priced markets helps mitigate rate-sensitivity but still ties earnings to the broader macro-economic cycle.
Analysts watch NVR’s inventory turnover (≈ 8 months) and land-bank efficiency as leading indicators of future profitability, while regional labor-cost pressures and supply-chain constraints remain material risks. For a deeper dive into how these drivers translate into valuation metrics, a quick look at ValueRay’s NVR dashboard can surface the most current analyst expectations and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 1.34b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.27% < 20% (prev 44.46%; Δ -17.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 1.32b > Net Income 1.34b |
| Net Debt (-760.3m) to EBITDA (1.81b): -0.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.95 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.99m) vs 12m ago -9.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 22.83% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 2258 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 166.2% > 50% (prev 165.2%; Δ 1.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 46.60 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.81b / Interest Expense TTM 28.2m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.47 (Total Current Assets 3.71b - Total Current Liabilities 939.2m) / Total Assets 5.86b |
| B: 2.80 (Retained Earnings 16.39b / Total Assets 5.86b) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 1.31b / Avg Total Assets 6.12b) |
| D: 8.23 (Book Value of Equity 16.39b / Total Liabilities 1.99b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 22.31 = AAA |
Beneish M -0.67
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 32.7m/32.6m, Revenue 10.17b/10.54b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 22.83% / 25.54%) |
| AQI: 4.76 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 10.17b / 10.54b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 1.34b - CFO 1.32b) / TA 5.86b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -0.67 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of NVR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.12%, over one month by +3.96%, over three months by +7.43% and over the past year by +4.85%.
Is NVR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NVR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8268 | 4.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8268 | 4.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8683.2 | 10.2% |
NVR Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 17.9856
P/S = 2.097
P/B = 5.5805
P/EG = 4.8865
Revenue TTM = 10.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.31b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.81b USD
Long Term Debt = 909.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -760.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 21.17b USD (21.89b + Debt 1.20b - CCE 1.92b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.60 (Ebit TTM 1.31b / Interest Expense TTM 28.2m)
EV/FCF = 16.38x (Enterprise Value 21.17b / FCF TTM 1.29b)
FCF Yield = 6.10% (FCF TTM 1.29b / Enterprise Value 21.17b)
FCF Margin = 12.70% (FCF TTM 1.29b / Revenue TTM 10.17b)
Net Margin = 13.17% (Net Income TTM 1.34b / Revenue TTM 10.17b)
Gross Margin = 22.83% ((Revenue TTM 10.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.85b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.71% (prev 23.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.61 (Enterprise Value 21.17b / Total Assets 5.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.60% (Interest Expense 7.21m / Debt 1.20b)
Taxrate = 22.38% (104.9m / 468.7m)
NOPAT = 1.02b (EBIT 1.31b * (1 - 22.38%))
Current Ratio = 3.95 (Total Current Assets 3.71b / Total Current Liabilities 939.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.31 (Debt 1.20b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.42 (Net Debt -760.3m / EBITDA 1.81b)
Debt / FCF = -0.59 (Net Debt -760.3m / FCF TTM 1.29b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 21.90% (Net Income 1.34b / Total Assets 5.86b)
RoE = 34.29% (Net Income TTM 1.34b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.91b)
RoCE = 27.29% (EBIT 1.31b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.91b + L.T.Debt 909.2m))
RoIC = 21.11% (NOPAT 1.02b / Invested Capital 4.83b)
WACC = 7.26% (E(21.89b)/V(23.09b) * Re(7.63%) + D(1.20b)/V(23.09b) * Rd(0.60%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.80%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.89% ; FCFF base≈1.26b ; Y1≈1.26b ; Y5≈1.33b
Fair Price DCF = 10.4k (EV 27.31b - Net Debt -760.3m = Equity 28.07b / Shares 2.69m; r=7.26% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -0.64% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -13.58 | EPS CAGR: 1.12% | SUE: 2.14 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 16.57 | Revenue CAGR: 3.54% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=88.88 | Chg30d=+4.026 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=429.91 | Chg30d=+16.089 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-1.5% | Growth Revenue=-2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=481.85 | Chg30d=+7.451 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+12.1% | Growth Revenue=+6.0%