(NVR) NVR - Overview
Stock: Homes, Townhomes, Condominiums, Mortgages, Title
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.56% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.11 |
| Alpha | -6.68 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.468 |
| Beta Downside | 0.080 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.49% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.51 |
Description: NVR NVR December 19, 2025
NVR, Inc. (NYSE: NVR) is a U.S. homebuilder that operates through two segments: Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking. It constructs and sells single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominiums under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands, targeting first-time, move-up, and luxury buyers. The Mortgage Banking segment offers financing, title-insurance brokerage, and secondary-market loan sales to its homebuilding customers. NVR’s geographic footprint spans the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Southeast, and the Washington, D.C. metro area.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue of approximately $9.1 billion, net income of $1.8 billion, and an operating margin exceeding 20 %, reflecting the company’s low-cost, high-efficiency business model. NVR maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio below 0.3 and generated free cash flow of roughly $2.5 billion, enabling aggressive land acquisition and shareholder returns. The homebuilding sector’s performance is highly sensitive to mortgage-rate movements and housing-starts data; NVR’s focus on higher-priced markets helps mitigate rate-sensitivity but still ties earnings to the broader macro-economic cycle.
Analysts watch NVR’s inventory turnover (≈ 8 months) and land-bank efficiency as leading indicators of future profitability, while regional labor-cost pressures and supply-chain constraints remain material risks. For a deeper dive into how these drivers translate into valuation metrics, a quick look at ValueRay’s NVR dashboard can surface the most current analyst expectations and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 1.43b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.21 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.87 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 42.36% < 20% (prev 46.47%; Δ -4.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 1.32b > Net Income 1.43b |
| Net Debt (-941.2m) to EBITDA (1.92b): -0.49 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (3.10m) vs 12m ago -5.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.59% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 2333 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 164.7% > 50% (prev 156.1%; Δ 8.53% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 67.63 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.92b / Interest Expense TTM 28.0m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.72 (Total Current Assets 5.41b - Total Current Liabilities 1.04b) / Total Assets 6.04b |
| B: 2.65 (Retained Earnings 16.02b / Total Assets 6.04b) |
| C: 0.30 (EBIT TTM 1.89b / Avg Total Assets 6.26b) |
| D: 7.75 (Book Value of Equity 16.02b / Total Liabilities 2.07b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 23.57 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.71
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 41.4m/35.6m, Revenue 10.31b/10.13b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 23.59% / 25.59%) |
| AQI: 1.15 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 10.31b / 10.13b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 1.43b - CFO 1.32b) / TA 6.04b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.71 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of NVR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.90%, over one month by +10.64%, over three months by +11.32% and over the past year by +3.49%.
Is NVR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NVR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8268 | 3.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8268 | 3.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8894.9 | 11% |
NVR Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 18.9753
P/S = 1.9426
P/B = 5.3115
P/EG = 4.8865
Revenue TTM = 10.31b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.89b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.92b USD
Long Term Debt = 909.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -941.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 19.34b USD (20.28b + Debt 1.03b - CCE 1.97b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 67.63 (Ebit TTM 1.89b / Interest Expense TTM 28.0m)
EV/FCF = 14.96x (Enterprise Value 19.34b / FCF TTM 1.29b)
FCF Yield = 6.68% (FCF TTM 1.29b / Enterprise Value 19.34b)
FCF Margin = 12.53% (FCF TTM 1.29b / Revenue TTM 10.31b)
Net Margin = 13.90% (Net Income TTM 1.43b / Revenue TTM 10.31b)
Gross Margin = 23.59% ((Revenue TTM 10.31b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.88b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.47% (prev 23.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.20 (Enterprise Value 19.34b / Total Assets 6.04b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.67% (Interest Expense 6.86m / Debt 1.03b)
Taxrate = 22.83% (101.4m / 444.1m)
NOPAT = 1.46b (EBIT 1.89b * (1 - 22.83%))
Current Ratio = 5.21 (Total Current Assets 5.41b / Total Current Liabilities 1.04b)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 1.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.97b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.49 (Net Debt -941.2m / EBITDA 1.92b)
Debt / FCF = -0.73 (Net Debt -941.2m / FCF TTM 1.29b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.89% (Net Income 1.43b / Total Assets 6.04b)
RoE = 35.89% (Net Income TTM 1.43b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.99b)
RoCE = 38.63% (EBIT 1.89b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.99b + L.T.Debt 909.7m))
RoIC = 29.80% (NOPAT 1.46b / Invested Capital 4.90b)
WACC = 7.30% (E(20.28b)/V(21.31b) * Re(7.64%) + D(1.03b)/V(21.31b) * Rd(0.67%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.21%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.75% ; FCFF base≈1.26b ; Y1≈1.26b ; Y5≈1.33b
Fair Price DCF = 10.4k (EV 27.08b - Net Debt -941.2m = Equity 28.02b / Shares 2.69m; r=7.30% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -0.64% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -13.58 | EPS CAGR: 1.12% | SUE: 2.14 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 23.04 | Revenue CAGR: 3.12% | SUE: 1.29 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=88.76 | Chg30d=+3.902 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=433.56 | Chg30d=+19.742 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-0.7% | Growth Revenue=-2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=489.43 | Chg30d=+15.030 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+12.9% | Growth Revenue=+6.0%