NVS Stock Analysis: Novartis | NYSE
Drug Manufacturers - General | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 286.286m USD | 12M Return: 22.5% | US66987V1098 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 246M
EPS Trend: 89.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 95.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Novartis AG is a Swiss-headquartered pharmaceutical company that researches, develops, manufactures, and markets medicines globally. Its portfolio spans cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology, with major products including Entresto for heart failure, Cosentyx for inflammatory conditions, Kisqali for breast cancer, Pluvicto for prostate cancer, Zolgensma for spinal muscular atrophy, and Leqvio for LDL cholesterol reduction. The company also maintains a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals to commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran).
As one of the worlds largest pharmaceutical manufacturers by market capitalization, Novartis operates a global drug development and commercialization business model that relies on patent-protected branded therapies sold across multiple geographies. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, with its ADR listed on the NYSE under the ticker NVS.
- Entresto patent cliff pressures near-term US revenue
- Pluvicto and Kisqali accelerate oncology segment growth
- Cost reduction program targets margin expansion through 2026
| Net Income: 12.8b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.90% < 20% (prev -10.46%; Δ 2.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 18.4b > Net Income 12.8b |
| Net Debt (43.3b) to EBITDA (22.3b): 1.94 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.86 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.91b) vs 12m ago -2.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.44% > 18% (prev 76.25%; Δ -1.81% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 49.14% > 50% (prev 52.86%; Δ -3.72% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.17 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.9b / Interest Expense TTM 1.39b) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 27.4b - Total Current Liabilities 31.7b) / Total Assets 122b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 39.6b / Total Assets 122b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 16.9b / Avg Total Assets 113b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 41.5b / Total Liabilities 80.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.37 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 9.85b/9.18b, Revenue 55.6b/55.2b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 76.25% / 74.44%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 55.6b / 55.2b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 12.8b - CFO 18.4b) / TA 122b) |
| Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 156.27 with a total of 2,081,330 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.92%, over one month by +10.61%, over three months by +2.08% and over the past year by +22.52%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 152.80 (which is 2.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Novartis has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.42. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NVS.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 154.7 | -1% |
P/E Trailing = 22.7523
P/E Forward = 14.7059
P/S = 5.0498
P/B = 6.5296
P/EG = 3.3437
Revenue TTM = 55.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.9b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 37.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.86b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 51.0b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.94b
Net Debt = 43.3b USD (calculated: Debt 51.0b - CCE 7.69b)
Enterprise Value = 330b USD (286b + Debt 51.0b - CCE 7.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.17 (Ebit TTM 16.9b / Interest Expense TTM 1.39b)
EV/FCF = 20.83x (Enterprise Value 330b / FCF TTM 15.8b)
FCF Yield = 4.80% (FCF TTM 15.8b / Enterprise Value 330b)
FCF Margin = 28.43% (FCF TTM 15.8b / Revenue TTM 55.6b)
Net Margin = 22.93% (Net Income TTM 12.8b / Revenue TTM 55.6b)
Gross Margin = 74.44% ((Revenue TTM 55.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.47% (prev 74.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.70 (Enterprise Value 330b / Total Assets 122b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.73% (Interest Expense 1.39b / Debt 51.0b)
Taxrate = 17.88% (2.78b / 15.5b)
NOPAT = 13.9b (EBIT 16.9b * (1 - 17.88%))
Current Ratio = 0.86 (Total Current Assets 27.4b / Total Current Liabilities 31.7b)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 51.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 41.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.94 (Net Debt 43.3b / EBITDA 22.3b)
Debt / FCF = 2.73 (Net Debt 43.3b / FCF TTM 15.8b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 42.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.27% (Net Income 12.8b / Total Assets 122b)
RoE = 29.93% (Net Income TTM 12.8b / Total Stockholder Equity 42.6b)
RoCE = 21.11% (EBIT 16.9b / Capital Employed (Equity 42.6b + L.T.Debt 37.5b))
RoIC = 14.27% (NOPAT 13.9b / Invested Capital 97.4b)
WACC = 4.88% (E(286b)/V(337b) * Re(5.35%) + D(51.0b)/V(337b) * Rd(2.73%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 5.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.84 | Cagr: -3.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.61% ; FCFF base≈16.2b ; Y1≈15.5b ; Y5≈14.8b
[DCF] Fair Price = 99.90 (EV 233b - Net Debt 43.3b = Equity 190b / Shares 1.90b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -5.87% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 89.16 | EPS CAGR: 11.35% | SUE: 2.41 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 94.97 | Revenue CAGR: 7.94% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.24 | Chg30d=+0.52% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.83 | Chg30d=-0.19% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-1.7% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.80 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+11.0% | GrowthRev=+6.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +8% (up=5, down=4)