(NVS) Novartis - Ratings and Ratios
Cardiovascular, Oncology, Immunology, Neurology, Hematology
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.02% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.71% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 5.30% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 44.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 30.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.06% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.36 |
| Alpha | 28.06 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.02 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.475 |
| Beta | 0.233 |
| Beta Downside | 0.223 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 19.95% |
| Mean DD | 4.74% |
| Median DD | 3.90% |
Description: NVS Novartis December 01, 2025
Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) is a Swiss-based, globally integrated pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets a broad portfolio of prescription medicines across therapeutic areas such as cardiovascular-renal-metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology.
Key marketed products include Entresto for HFrEF, Cosentyx for psoriasis and related inflammatory diseases, Kisqali (CDK4/6 inhibitor) for breast cancer, the Tafinlar + Mekinist combo for melanoma, Jakavi for myelofibrosis, and Leqvio (inclisiran) – a PCSK9-targeting LDL-cholesterol-lowering therapy co-developed with Alnylam.
From a financial-performance perspective, Novartis generated ≈ $53 billion in total revenue in 2023, with oncology contributing roughly 30 % of sales and a 2024-2026 R&D budget projected at $9-10 billion to sustain pipeline growth. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) has been trending upward, posting a 12 % YoY increase in Q3 2024, while its dividend yield remains above 3 %.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect Novartis include aging demographics driving demand for chronic-disease therapies, ongoing regulatory pressure on drug pricing in the U.S. and Europe, and the accelerating shift toward biologics and gene-therapy platforms – areas where Novartis has invested heavily (e.g., Zolgensma and upcoming CAR-T candidates).
For a deeper quantitative view of Novartis’ valuation metrics, see the ValueRay analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income (14.39b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.38b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.16 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.45pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -6.74% (prev 6.27%; Δ -13.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 (>3.0%) and CFO 21.07b > Net Income 14.39b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (22.47b) to EBITDA (22.94b) ratio: 0.98 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.88 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.94b) change vs 12m ago -4.29% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 76.21% (prev 74.92%; Δ 1.29pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 53.48% (prev 48.24%; Δ 5.24pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 15.68 (EBITDA TTM 22.94b / Interest Expense TTM 1.12b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.95
| (A) -0.04 = (Total Current Assets 28.20b - Total Current Liabilities 32.00b) / Total Assets 107.29b |
| (B) 0.41 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 43.51b / Total Assets 107.29b |
| (C) 0.17 = EBIT TTM 17.53b / Avg Total Assets 105.41b |
| (D) 0.71 = Book Value of Equity 44.37b / Total Liabilities 62.54b |
| Total Rating: 2.95 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 91.89
| 1. Piotroski 9.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.12% |
| 3. FCF Margin 30.26% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.72 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.98 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 16.57)% |
| 7. RoE 34.12% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 48.64% |
| 9. EPS Trend 92.90% |
What is the price of NVS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.05%, over one month by +1.43%, over three months by +3.65% and over the past year by +38.27%.
Is NVS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the NVS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 134.9 | 1.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 134.9 | 1.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 165.6 | 25.1% |
NVS Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
P/E Trailing = 18.2928
P/E Forward = 13.9665
P/S = 4.5516
P/B = 5.5824
P/EG = 1.0428
Beta = 0.439
Revenue TTM = 56.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 17.53b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.60b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.78b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.47b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 278.85b USD (256.58b + Debt 32.02b - CCE 9.75b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.68 (Ebit TTM 17.53b / Interest Expense TTM 1.12b)
FCF Yield = 6.12% (FCF TTM 17.06b / Enterprise Value 278.85b)
FCF Margin = 30.26% (FCF TTM 17.06b / Revenue TTM 56.37b)
Net Margin = 25.53% (Net Income TTM 14.39b / Revenue TTM 56.37b)
Gross Margin = 76.21% ((Revenue TTM 56.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.35% (prev 77.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.60 (Enterprise Value 278.85b / Total Assets 107.29b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.88% (Interest Expense 281.0m / Debt 32.02b)
Taxrate = 6.34% (266.0m / 4.20b)
NOPAT = 16.42b (EBIT 17.53b * (1 - 6.34%))
Current Ratio = 0.88 (Total Current Assets 28.20b / Total Current Liabilities 32.00b)
Debt / Equity = 0.72 (Debt 32.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 44.33b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.98 (Net Debt 22.47b / EBITDA 22.94b)
Debt / FCF = 1.32 (Net Debt 22.47b / FCF TTM 17.06b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 42.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.42% (Net Income 14.39b / Total Assets 107.29b)
RoE = 34.12% (Net Income TTM 14.39b / Total Stockholder Equity 42.18b)
RoCE = 27.07% (EBIT 17.53b / Capital Employed (Equity 42.18b + L.T.Debt 22.60b))
RoIC = 22.77% (NOPAT 16.42b / Invested Capital 72.14b)
WACC = 6.20% (E(256.58b)/V(288.60b) * Re(6.87%) + D(32.02b)/V(288.60b) * Rd(0.88%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 6.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.07%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.89% ; FCFE base≈15.39b ; Y1≈17.29b ; Y5≈23.15b
Fair Price DCF = 209.2 (DCF Value 401.38b / Shares Outstanding 1.92b; 5y FCF grow 14.32% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 92.90 | EPS CAGR: 13.49% | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 48.64 | Revenue CAGR: 1.61% | SUE: 1.00 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.22 | Chg30d=-0.111 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+3.2% | Growth Revenue=+2.3%
Additional Sources for NVS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle