NVS Stock Analysis: Novartis | NYSE
Drug Manufacturers - General | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 286.780m USD | 12M Return: 29.1% | US66987V1098 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 237M
EPS Trend: 89.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 95.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Novartis AG is a Swiss multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, incorporated in 1996. It researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and markets pharmaceutical medicines globally, with a portfolio spanning cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology therapeutic areas. Its major products include Entresto (heart failure), Cosentyx (inflammatory diseases), Kisqali (CDK4/6 inhibitor for cancer), Tafinlar+Mekinist (cancer combination therapy), Zolgensma (spinal muscular atrophy gene therapy), Pluvicto (prostate cancer), and Leqvio (LDL cholesterol reduction), the latter developed in collaboration with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.
As a global Big Pharma operator, Novartis runs an R&D-intensive, patent-driven business model, generating revenue primarily from prescription medicines protected by regulatory exclusivity until patents expire. The pharmaceutical sector is characterized by long development cycles, heavy capital investment in clinical trials, reliance on regulatory approvals (e.g., FDA, EMA), and ongoing exposure to patent cliffs and generic competition following loss of exclusivity.
- Entresto faces patent expiration, risking multi-billion revenue loss
- Pluvicto radioligand therapy sales accelerate in oncology segment
- Sandoz spin-off completes, sharpens focus on innovative medicines
| Net Income: 12.8b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.90% < 20% (prev -10.46%; Δ 2.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 18.4b > Net Income 12.8b |
| Net Debt (43.3b) to EBITDA (22.3b): 1.94 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.86 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.91b) vs 12m ago -2.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.44% > 18% (prev 76.25%; Δ -1.81% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 49.14% > 50% (prev 52.86%; Δ -3.72% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.17 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.9b / Interest Expense TTM 1.39b) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 27.4b - Total Current Liabilities 31.7b) / Total Assets 122b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 39.6b / Total Assets 122b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 16.9b / Avg Total Assets 113b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 41.5b / Total Liabilities 80.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.37 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 9.85b/9.18b, Revenue 55.6b/55.2b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 76.25% / 74.44%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 55.6b / 55.2b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 12.8b - CFO 18.4b) / TA 122b) |
| Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 158.86 with a total of 1,083,307 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.29%, over one month by +3.24%, over three months by +4.68% and over the past year by +29.08%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 153.50 (which is 3.4% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Novartis has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.85. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NVS.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 157.2 | -1.1% |
P/E Trailing = 22.7915
P/E Forward = 16.8634
P/S = 5.0585
P/B = 6.9034
P/EG = 3.4443
Revenue TTM = 55.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.9b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 37.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.86b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 51.0b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.94b
Net Debt = 43.3b USD (calculated: Debt 51.0b - CCE 7.69b)
Enterprise Value = 330b USD (287b + Debt 51.0b - CCE 7.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.17 (Ebit TTM 16.9b / Interest Expense TTM 1.39b)
EV/FCF = 20.86x (Enterprise Value 330b / FCF TTM 15.8b)
FCF Yield = 4.79% (FCF TTM 15.8b / Enterprise Value 330b)
FCF Margin = 28.43% (FCF TTM 15.8b / Revenue TTM 55.6b)
Net Margin = 22.93% (Net Income TTM 12.8b / Revenue TTM 55.6b)
Gross Margin = 74.44% ((Revenue TTM 55.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.47% (prev 74.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.70 (Enterprise Value 330b / Total Assets 122b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.73% (Interest Expense 1.39b / Debt 51.0b)
Taxrate = 17.88% (2.78b / 15.5b)
NOPAT = 13.9b (EBIT 16.9b * (1 - 17.88%))
Current Ratio = 0.86 (Total Current Assets 27.4b / Total Current Liabilities 31.7b)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 51.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 41.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.94 (Net Debt 43.3b / EBITDA 22.3b)
Debt / FCF = 2.73 (Net Debt 43.3b / FCF TTM 15.8b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 42.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.27% (Net Income 12.8b / Total Assets 122b)
RoE = 29.93% (Net Income TTM 12.8b / Total Stockholder Equity 42.6b)
RoCE = 21.11% (EBIT 16.9b / Capital Employed (Equity 42.6b + L.T.Debt 37.5b))
RoIC = 14.27% (NOPAT 13.9b / Invested Capital 97.4b)
WACC = 5.10% (E(287b)/V(338b) * Re(5.61%) + D(51.0b)/V(338b) * Rd(2.73%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 5.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.84 | Cagr: -3.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.61% ; FCFF base≈16.2b ; Y1≈15.5b ; Y5≈14.8b
[DCF] Fair Price = 99.90 (EV 233b - Net Debt 43.3b = Equity 190b / Shares 1.90b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -5.87% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 89.16 | EPS CAGR: 11.35% | SUE: 2.41 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 94.97 | Revenue CAGR: 7.94% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.23 | Chg30d=+3.39% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.80 | Chg30d=+1.38% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=-2.0% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.81 | Chg30d=+0.59% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+11.4% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36% (up=8, down=3)