OBDC Stock Analysis: Blue Owl Capital | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.320m USD | 12M Return: -14.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 38.1M
EPS Trend: -66.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 18.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.9 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation (NYSE: OBDC) is a business development company (BDC) that provides debt and equity financing to middle market and upper middle market companies based in the United States. BDCs are regulated investment vehicles under the Investment Company Act of 1940, typically required to distribute most of their taxable income to shareholders, and often serve as an alternative source of capital for borrowers underserved by traditional banks.
The companys investment strategy spans direct lending and fund-of-fund investments, encompassing senior secured loans, first lien, unitranche, second lien, subordinated, and mezzanine debt, alongside equity-related securities such as warrants, preferred stock, and common equity. Within private equity, it targets growth financings, acquisitions, market or product expansions, refinancings, and recapitalizations.
OBDC typically invests in U.S. companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million annually and/or annual revenue between $50 million and $2,500 million, with investment sizes generally ranging from $20 million to $250 million and maturities of three to ten years.
- Middle market loan originations drive net investment income growth
- Credit losses mount on weakening middle market borrower fundamentals
- Interest rate cuts pressure floating-rate loan yields and margins
| Net Income: 360.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 44.35% < 20% (prev 35.16%; Δ 9.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.08b > Net Income 360.4m |
| Net Debt (8.42b) to EBITDA (612.3m): 13.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities) |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (498.9m) vs 12m ago 0.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.74% > 18% (prev 60.84%; Δ 2.90% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.62% > 50% (prev 6.48%; Δ 1.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.17 > 6 (EBIT TTM 651.0m / Interest Expense TTM 558.4m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 581.0m - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 16.0b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -328.0m / Total Assets 16.0b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 651.0m / Avg Total Assets 17.2b) |
| D: 0.81 (Book Value of Equity 7.15b / Total Liabilities 8.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.27 = BB |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.87 with a total of 3,204,658 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.53%, over one month by -2.09%, over three months by +1.09% and over the past year by -14.36%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.50 (which is 3.4% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Blue Owl Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy OBDC.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.3 | 22.4% |
P/E Trailing = 15.3143
P/E Forward = 9.8328
P/S = 2.9832
P/B = 0.7437
Revenue TTM = 1.31b USD
EBIT TTM = 651.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 612.3m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 8.45b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.42b USD (calculated: Debt 8.45b - CCE 39.3m)
Enterprise Value = 13.7b USD (5.32b + Debt 8.45b - CCE 39.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.17 (Ebit TTM 651.0m / Interest Expense TTM 558.4m)
EV/FCF = 12.75x (Enterprise Value 13.7b / FCF TTM 1.08b)
FCF Yield = 7.84% (FCF TTM 1.08b / Enterprise Value 13.7b)
FCF Margin = 82.22% (FCF TTM 1.08b / Revenue TTM 1.31b)
Net Margin = 27.51% (Net Income TTM 360.4m / Revenue TTM 1.31b)
Gross Margin = 63.74% ((Revenue TTM 1.31b - Cost of Revenue TTM 475.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.15% (prev 74.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 13.7b / Total Assets 16.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.61% (Interest Expense 558.4m / Debt 8.45b)
Taxrate = 3.10% (11.5m / 371.9m)
NOPAT = 630.9m (EBIT 651.0m * (1 - 3.10%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 581.0m / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
Debt / Equity = 1.18 (Debt 8.45b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.74 (Net Debt 8.42b / EBITDA 612.3m)
Debt / FCF = 7.81 (Net Debt 8.42b / FCF TTM 1.08b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.10% (Net Income 360.4m / Total Assets 16.0b)
RoE = 4.83% (Net Income TTM 360.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.46b)
RoCE = 4.06% (EBIT 651.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 16.0b - Current Liab 0.0))
RoIC = 4.07% (EBIT 651.0m / (Assets 16.0b - Curr.Liab 0.0 - Cash 39.3m))
WACC = 7.09% (E(5.32b)/V(13.8b) * Re(8.19%) + D(8.45b)/V(13.8b) * Rd(6.61%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 8.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 62.93 | Cagr: 11.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.08b ; Y1≈1.08b ; Y5≈1.15b
[DCF] Fair Price = 18.95 (EV 17.8b - Net Debt 8.42b = Equity 9.41b / Shares 496.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -65.97 | EPS CAGR: -6.73% | SUE: -1.68 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 18.09 | Revenue CAGR: 1.32% | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-6.69% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.28 | Chg30d=-6.82% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=-18.9% | GrowthRev=-15.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.32 | Chg30d=-0.37% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+2.6% | GrowthRev=+1.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -67%