OBK Stock Analysis: Origin Bancorp | NYSE
Banks - Regional | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.608m USD | 12M Return: 39.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 6.76M
EPS Trend: 73.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 55.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) is the holding company for Origin Bank, a community-focused regional bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail customers across Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. Its deposit offerings include noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts, while its lending portfolio spans commercial real estate, construction and land development, commercial and industrial, consumer, residential real estate, mortgage warehouse, and residential mortgage loans.
Beyond core banking, the company distributes personal and commercial property and casualty insurance, and delivers digital and treasury services such as internet and mobile banking, voice response, cash management, business credit cards, peer-to-peer electronic payments, and personal financial management tools. Origin Bancorp was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.
As a regional bank in the community banking segment, Origin earns the majority of its revenue from net interest income generated through its loan and deposit franchise, with noninterest income supplemented by insurance commissions and treasury management fees. Its concentration in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi ties its performance to the economic conditions of the Gulf South, where energy, agriculture, and small business activity are notable drivers of loan demand.
- Net interest margin expands on asset-sensitive loan repricing
- Commercial real estate and construction loan portfolio grows double digits
- Energy sector exposure in Louisiana and Texas pressures credit quality
| Net Income: 80.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.63 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -311.0% < 20% (prev -1.15k%; Δ 841.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 176.2m > Net Income 80.5m |
| Net Debt (-92.7m) to EBITDA (118.7m): -0.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (31.2m) vs 12m ago -0.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.56% > 18% (prev 57.31%; Δ 2.25% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.99% > 50% (prev 6.27%; Δ -0.27% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 105.5m / Interest Expense TTM 196.9m) |
| A: -0.18 (Total Current Assets 121.8m - Total Current Liabilities 1.98b) / Total Assets 10.2b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 633.9m / Total Assets 10.2b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 105.5m / Avg Total Assets 9.97b) |
| D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 1.26b / Total Liabilities 8.93b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.77 = CCC |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 51.31 with a total of 99,565 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.16%, over one month by +6.30%, over three months by +21.44% and over the past year by +39.31%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 49.80 (which is 2.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Origin Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.20. Therefore, it is recommended to buy OBK.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 52 | 1.3% |
P/E Trailing = 20.1628
P/S = 4.588
P/B = 1.2756
Revenue TTM = 597.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 105.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 118.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 29.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 29.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -92.7m USD (calculated: Debt 29.2m - CCE 121.8m)
Enterprise Value = 1.51b USD (1.61b + Debt 29.2m - CCE 121.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.54 (Ebit TTM 105.5m / Interest Expense TTM 196.9m)
EV/FCF = 9.23x (Enterprise Value 1.51b / FCF TTM 164.2m)
FCF Yield = 10.84% (FCF TTM 164.2m / Enterprise Value 1.51b)
FCF Margin = 27.48% (FCF TTM 164.2m / Revenue TTM 597.5m)
Net Margin = 13.47% (Net Income TTM 80.5m / Revenue TTM 597.5m)
Gross Margin = 59.56% ((Revenue TTM 597.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 241.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.90% (prev 68.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.15 (Enterprise Value 1.51b / Total Assets 10.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 675.0% (Interest Expense 196.9m / Debt 29.2m)
Taxrate = 21.38% (21.9m / 102.4m)
NOPAT = 83.0m (EBIT 105.5m * (1 - 21.38%))
Current Ratio = 0.06 (Total Current Assets 121.8m / Total Current Liabilities 1.98b)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 29.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.26b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.78 (Net Debt -92.7m / EBITDA 118.7m)
Debt / FCF = -0.56 (Net Debt -92.7m / FCF TTM 164.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.81% (Net Income 80.5m / Total Assets 10.2b)
RoE = 6.53% (Net Income TTM 80.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.23b)
RoCE = 8.37% (EBIT 105.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.23b + L.T.Debt 29.2m))
RoIC = 1.01% (NOPAT 83.0m / Invested Capital 8.18b)
WACC = 8.37% (E(1.61b)/V(1.64b) * Re(8.52%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 37.78 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.91% ; FCFF base≈136.7m ; Y1≈156.7m ; Y5≈230.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 114.9 (EV 3.46b - Net Debt -92.7m = Equity 3.55b / Shares 30.9m; r=8.37% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 73.30 | EPS CAGR: 7.69% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 55.76 | Revenue CAGR: 3.47% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.00 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.04 | Chg30d=+0.58% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.95 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+13.6% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.26 | Chg30d=+0.33% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+8.0% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +85% (up=17, down=0)