ORC Stock Analysis: Orchid Island Capital | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.003m USD | 12M Return: -15.6% | US68571X3017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 36.3M
Qual. Beats: -2
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) is a specialty finance company that invests in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), with a portfolio consisting entirely of Agency RMBS backed by single-family residential mortgage loans. Holdings include traditional pass-through Agency RMBS (mortgage pass-through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations) as well as structured Agency RMBS such as interest-only, inverse interest-only, and principal-only securities. Structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT), the company avoids corporate income tax on distributed earnings, provided it pays out at least 90% of its REIT taxable income each year. Incorporated in 2010 and headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida, Orchid Island Capital operates within the mortgage REIT sub-industry, where performance is typically driven by the net interest margin between asset yields and financing costs, and is highly sensitive to interest rate movements and residential prepayment speeds.
- Agency RMBS spreads widen on Fed rate cut expectations
- Faster prepayments reduce yields on premium mortgage securities
- Repo financing costs fall as short-term rates decline
| Net Income: 244.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.02k% < 20% (prev -25.5k%; Δ 23.5k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 206.4m > Net Income 244.7m |
| Net Debt (10.8b) to EBITDA (325.9m): 33.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (200.9m) vs 12m ago 75.56% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 61.26% > 18% (prev 52.27%; Δ 9.00% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.13% > 50% (prev 0.32%; Δ 4.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.86 > 6 (EBIT TTM 325.9m / Interest Expense TTM 380.2m) |
| A: -0.82 (Total Current Assets 867.0m - Total Current Liabilities 11.6b) / Total Assets 13.1b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -114.5m / Total Assets 13.1b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 325.9m / Avg Total Assets 10.4b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 1.44b / Total Liabilities 11.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.05 = D |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.08 with a total of 6,460,931 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.60%, over one month by -17.02%, over three months by -21.99% and over the past year by -15.60%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.80 (which is 5.5% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Orchid Island Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ORC.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.5 | 47.6% |
P/E Trailing = 3.0976
P/E Forward = 5.9382
P/S = 3.7122
P/B = 0.8136
Revenue TTM = 531.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 325.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 325.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 11.6b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 10.8b USD (calculated: Debt 11.6b - CCE 813.6m)
Enterprise Value = 11.8b USD (1.00b + Debt 11.6b - CCE 813.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.86 (Ebit TTM 325.9m / Interest Expense TTM 380.2m)
EV/FCF = 57.02x (Enterprise Value 11.8b / FCF TTM 206.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.75% (FCF TTM 206.4m / Enterprise Value 11.8b)
FCF Margin = 38.82% (FCF TTM 206.4m / Revenue TTM 531.8m)
Net Margin = 46.02% (Net Income TTM 244.7m / Revenue TTM 531.8m)
Gross Margin = 61.26% ((Revenue TTM 531.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 206.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.53% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 11.8b / Total Assets 13.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.28% (Interest Expense 380.2m / Debt 11.6b)
Taxrate = 0.0% (0.0 / 159.0m)
NOPAT = 325.9m (EBIT 325.9m * (1 - 0.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.07 (Total Current Assets 867.0m / Total Current Liabilities 11.6b)
Debt / Equity = 8.04 (Debt 11.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.44b)
Debt / EBITDA = 33.04 (Net Debt 10.8b / EBITDA 325.9m)
Debt / FCF = 52.16 (Net Debt 10.8b / FCF TTM 206.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.32b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.36% (Net Income 244.7m / Total Assets 13.1b)
RoE = 18.50% (Net Income TTM 244.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.32b)
RoCE = 24.64% (EBIT 325.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.32b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 2.49% (NOPAT 325.9m / Invested Capital 13.1b)
WACC = 3.67% (E(1.00b)/V(12.6b) * Re(8.12%) + D(11.6b)/V(12.6b) * Rd(3.28%) * (1-Tc(0.0)))
Discount Rate = 8.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 98.45 | Cagr: 82.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈142.6m ; Y1≈163.5m ; Y5≈240.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.62b - Net Debt 10.8b = -7.15b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.05 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.18 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-8.73% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=-0.22% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+63.3% | GrowthRev=+125.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.13 | Chg30d=+9.18% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1.1% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)