ORC Stock Analysis: Orchid Island Capital | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.389m USD | 12M Return: 16.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 33.4M
Qual. Beats: -1
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (NYSE: ORC) is a specialty finance company that invests in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), with a portfolio focused entirely on Agency RMBS backed by single-family residential mortgage loans. Its holdings include traditional pass-through securities (such as mortgage pass-through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations) and structured Agency RMBS (including interest-only, inverse interest-only, and principal-only securities).
The company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for U.S. federal income tax purposes, which means it must distribute at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to shareholders annually to maintain its tax-advantaged status and avoid corporate income tax on distributed earnings. As a Mortgage REIT, ORC primarily generates income from the net interest spread between the yield on its mortgage securities and the cost of financing its portfolio, typically through repo market leverage.
Orchid Island Capital was incorporated in 2010, is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida, and trades on the NYSE as a small-cap Financials stock.
- Fed rate cuts compress net interest spread on Agency RMBS
- Prepayment speeds accelerate as mortgage rates decline
- Book value pressured by interest rate volatility and spread widening
| Net Income: 122.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.03k% < 20% (prev -11.3k%; Δ 8.26k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 143.3m > Net Income 122.0m |
| Net Debt (10.3b) to EBITDA (302.6m): 34.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (189.3m) vs 12m ago 98.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 69.03% > 18% (prev 79.36%; Δ -10.33% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.39% > 50% (prev 0.72%; Δ 2.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM 302.6m / Interest Expense TTM 345.1m) |
| A: -0.81 (Total Current Assets 969.1m - Total Current Liabilities 11.2b) / Total Assets 12.7b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -203.7m / Total Assets 12.7b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 302.6m / Avg Total Assets 9.99b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 1.39b / Total Liabilities 11.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.03 = D |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.81 with a total of 2,581,029 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.59%, over one month by +5.97%, over three months by -1.10% and over the past year by +16.59%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.40 (which is 6% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).
Orchid Island Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ORC.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.5 | 10.1% |
P/E Trailing = 7.2842
P/E Forward = 6.9881
P/S = 9.5385
P/B = 0.9979
Revenue TTM = 339.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 302.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 302.6m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 11.2b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 10.3b USD (calculated: Debt 11.2b - CCE 915.2m)
Enterprise Value = 11.7b USD (1.39b + Debt 11.2b - CCE 915.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.88 (Ebit TTM 302.6m / Interest Expense TTM 345.1m)
EV/FCF = 81.64x (Enterprise Value 11.7b / FCF TTM 143.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.22% (FCF TTM 143.3m / Enterprise Value 11.7b)
FCF Margin = 42.27% (FCF TTM 143.3m / Revenue TTM 339.0m)
Net Margin = 35.97% (Net Income TTM 122.0m / Revenue TTM 339.0m)
Gross Margin = 69.03% ((Revenue TTM 339.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 105.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 29.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 11.7b / Total Assets 12.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.07% (Interest Expense 345.1m / Debt 11.2b)
Taxrate = 0.0% (0.0 / 159.0m)
NOPAT = 302.6m (EBIT 302.6m * (1 - 0.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.09 (Total Current Assets 969.1m / Total Current Liabilities 11.2b)
Debt / Equity = 8.06 (Debt 11.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 34.06 (Net Debt 10.3b / EBITDA 302.6m)
Debt / FCF = 71.95 (Net Debt 10.3b / FCF TTM 143.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.22% (Net Income 122.0m / Total Assets 12.7b)
RoE = 10.24% (Net Income TTM 122.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.19b)
RoCE = 25.42% (EBIT 302.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.19b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 2.39% (NOPAT 302.6m / Invested Capital 12.7b)
WACC = 3.62% (E(1.39b)/V(12.6b) * Re(8.06%) + D(11.2b)/V(12.6b) * Rd(3.07%) * (1-Tc(0.0)))
Discount Rate = 8.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.56 | Cagr: 76.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈105.1m ; Y1≈120.5m ; Y5≈177.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.67b - Net Debt 10.3b = -7.64b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.81 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=+9.37% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=+12.90% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+26.55% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+109.0% | GrowthRev=+118.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=+4.56% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-3.9% | GrowthRev=+68.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=0, down=0)