ORC Stock Analysis: Orchid Island Capital | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.336m USD | 12M Return: 13.2% | US68571X3017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.5M
Qual. Beats: -2
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (NYSE: ORC) is a specialty finance company that invests in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), with a portfolio focused entirely on Agency RMBS backed by single-family residential mortgage loans. Its holdings include traditional pass-through securities (such as mortgage pass-through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations) and structured Agency RMBS (including interest-only, inverse interest-only, and principal-only securities).
The company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for U.S. federal income tax purposes, which means it must distribute at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to shareholders annually to maintain its tax-advantaged status and avoid corporate income tax on distributed earnings. As a Mortgage REIT, ORC primarily generates income from the net interest spread between the yield on its mortgage securities and the cost of financing its portfolio, typically through repo market leverage.
Orchid Island Capital was incorporated in 2010, is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida, and trades on the NYSE as a small-cap Financials stock.
- Fed rate cuts compress net interest spread on Agency RMBS
- Prepayment speeds accelerate as mortgage rates decline
- Book value pressured by interest rate volatility and spread widening
| Net Income: 338.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.12k% < 20% (prev -25.5k%; Δ 23.4k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 206.4m > Net Income 338.4m |
| Net Debt (10.8b) to EBITDA (397.9m): 27.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (200.9m) vs 12m ago 75.56% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.04% > 18% (prev 52.27%; Δ 26.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.88% > 50% (prev 0.32%; Δ 4.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.05 > 6 (EBIT TTM 397.9m / Interest Expense TTM 380.2m) |
| A: -0.82 (Total Current Assets 867.0m - Total Current Liabilities 11.6b) / Total Assets 13.1b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -114.5m / Total Assets 13.1b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 397.9m / Avg Total Assets 10.4b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 1.44b / Total Liabilities 11.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.01 = D |
As of August 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.67 with a total of 4,496,323 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.62%, over one month by +4.35%, over three months by +1.77% and over the past year by +13.19%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.50 (which is 2.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Orchid Island Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ORC.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.5 | 12.4% |
P/E Trailing = 3.84
P/E Forward = 6.192
P/S = 4.9455
P/B = 0.9311
Revenue TTM = 505.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 397.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 397.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 11.6b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 10.8b USD (calculated: Debt 11.6b - CCE 813.6m)
Enterprise Value = 12.1b USD (1.34b + Debt 11.6b - CCE 813.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.05 (Ebit TTM 397.9m / Interest Expense TTM 380.2m)
EV/FCF = 58.64x (Enterprise Value 12.1b / FCF TTM 206.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.71% (FCF TTM 206.4m / Enterprise Value 12.1b)
FCF Margin = 40.87% (FCF TTM 206.4m / Revenue TTM 505.1m)
Net Margin = 66.99% (Net Income TTM 338.4m / Revenue TTM 505.1m)
Gross Margin = 79.04% ((Revenue TTM 505.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 105.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 12.1b / Total Assets 13.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.28% (Interest Expense 380.2m / Debt 11.6b)
Taxrate = 0.0% (0.0 / 159.0m)
NOPAT = 397.9m (EBIT 397.9m * (1 - 0.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.07 (Total Current Assets 867.0m / Total Current Liabilities 11.6b)
Debt / Equity = 8.04 (Debt 11.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.44b)
Debt / EBITDA = 27.07 (Net Debt 10.8b / EBITDA 397.9m)
Debt / FCF = 52.16 (Net Debt 10.8b / FCF TTM 206.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.32b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.27% (Net Income 338.4m / Total Assets 13.1b)
RoE = 25.58% (Net Income TTM 338.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.32b)
RoCE = 30.08% (EBIT 397.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.32b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 3.04% (NOPAT 397.9m / Invested Capital 13.1b)
WACC = 3.78% (E(1.34b)/V(12.9b) * Re(8.09%) + D(11.6b)/V(12.9b) * Rd(3.28%) * (1-Tc(0.0)))
Discount Rate = 8.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 98.45 | Cagr: 82.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈142.6m ; Y1≈163.5m ; Y5≈240.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.62b - Net Debt 10.8b = -7.15b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.05 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.64 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-10.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=-21.68% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+63.7% | GrowthRev=+125.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.03 | Chg30d=-24.73% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-7.6% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)