(ORC) Orchid Island Capital - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US68571X1037
Stock: Agency RMBS, Pass-Through Certificates, CMOs, Interest-Only, Principal-Only
Total Rating 53
Risk 62
Buy Signal -0.34
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 19.81% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 12.59% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 16.56% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 64.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.84% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.40 |
| Alpha | 0.26 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.624 |
| Beta Downside | 0.777 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.06% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.11 |
Description: ORC Orchid Island Capital January 21, 2026
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (NYSE: ORC) is a specialty-finance REIT that invests exclusively in U.S. agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Its holdings span traditional pass-through securities (mortgage pass-through certificates and CMOs) as well as structured products such as interest-only (IO), inverse IO, and principal-only (PO) strips, all backed by single-family loans guaranteed by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac.
As of the most recent filing, ORC reported a dividend yield near 9% and a net asset value (NAV) of roughly $12 per share, reflecting a portfolio weighted-average coupon of about 4.2% and a duration of 4.5 years. The REIT’s performance is tightly linked to Federal Reserve policy-higher policy rates compress RMBS spreads and can pressure yields, while a flattening yield curve typically benefits IO and PO strips.
Because ORC elects REIT tax treatment, it avoids corporate income tax on the portion of earnings it distributes, provided it pays at least 90% of its REIT-taxable income as dividends each year. For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you might explore ValueRay’s analytics on ORC’s yield and duration profile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 164.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.62 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7187 % < 20% (prev -4237 %; Δ -2950 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 89.7m > Net Income 164.8m |
| Net Debt (-724.6m) to EBITDA (470.6m): -1.54 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (166.1m) vs 12m ago 108.7% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 90.31% > 18% (prev 0.91%; Δ 8940 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.16% > 50% (prev 1.95%; Δ -0.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.88 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 470.6m / Interest Expense TTM 305.7m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: -0.62 (Total Current Assets 775.2m - Total Current Liabilities 8.05b) / Total Assets 11.68b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -287.1m / Total Assets 11.68b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 267.6m / Avg Total Assets 8.70b) |
| D: 17.66 (Book Value of Equity 181.99b / Total Liabilities 10.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 14.58 = AAA |
What is the price of ORC shares?
As of February 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.61 with a total of 5,711,505 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.44%, over one month by +2.96%, over three months by +9.06% and over the past year by +11.43%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.44%, over one month by +2.96%, over three months by +9.06% and over the past year by +11.43%.
Is ORC a buy, sell or hold?
Orchid Island Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold ORC.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ORC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 7.5 | -1.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 7.5 | -1.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.7 | 27.9% |
ORC Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/E Trailing = 15.0
P/E Forward = 8.7032
P/S = 17.8345
P/B = 1.3961
Revenue TTM = 101.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 267.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 470.6m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 8.01b USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 8.01b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = -724.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.71b USD (1.43b + Debt 8.01b - CCE 726.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.88 (Ebit TTM 267.6m / Interest Expense TTM 305.7m)
EV/FCF = 97.11x (Enterprise Value 8.71b / FCF TTM 89.7m)
FCF Yield = 1.03% (FCF TTM 89.7m / Enterprise Value 8.71b)
FCF Margin = 88.64% (FCF TTM 89.7m / Revenue TTM 101.2m)
Net Margin = 162.9% (Net Income TTM 164.8m / Revenue TTM 101.2m)
Gross Margin = 90.31% ((Revenue TTM 101.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.81m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 8.71b / Total Assets 11.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.17% (Interest Expense 93.7m / Debt 8.01b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 211.4m (EBIT 267.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.10 (Total Current Assets 775.2m / Total Current Liabilities 8.05b)
Debt / Equity = 5.84 (Debt 8.01b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.54 (Net Debt -724.6m / EBITDA 470.6m)
Debt / FCF = -8.08 (Net Debt -724.6m / FCF TTM 89.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.90% (Net Income 164.8m / Total Assets 11.68b)
RoE = 15.60% (Net Income TTM 164.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.06b)
RoCE = 7.38% (EBIT 267.6m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 11.68b - Current Liab 8.05b))
RoIC = 9.22% (EBIT 267.6m / (Assets 11.68b - Curr.Liab 8.05b - Cash 726.1m))
WACC = 2.03% (E(1.43b)/V(9.44b) * Re(8.21%) + D(8.01b)/V(9.44b) * Rd(1.17%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 78.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.85% ; FCFF base≈57.3m ; Y1≈40.1m ; Y5≈20.8m
Fair Price DCF = 7.51 (EV 653.2m - Net Debt -724.6m = Equity 1.38b / Shares 183.3m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -35.24% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -20.68 | EPS CAGR: -35.18% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 48.18 | Revenue CAGR: 252.3% | SUE: 2.03 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+0.015 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=+0.110 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+60.0% | Growth Revenue=+99.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+11.4% | Growth Revenue=+5.7%
P/E Forward = 8.7032
P/S = 17.8345
P/B = 1.3961
Revenue TTM = 101.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 267.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 470.6m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 8.01b USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 8.01b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = -724.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.71b USD (1.43b + Debt 8.01b - CCE 726.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.88 (Ebit TTM 267.6m / Interest Expense TTM 305.7m)
EV/FCF = 97.11x (Enterprise Value 8.71b / FCF TTM 89.7m)
FCF Yield = 1.03% (FCF TTM 89.7m / Enterprise Value 8.71b)
FCF Margin = 88.64% (FCF TTM 89.7m / Revenue TTM 101.2m)
Net Margin = 162.9% (Net Income TTM 164.8m / Revenue TTM 101.2m)
Gross Margin = 90.31% ((Revenue TTM 101.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.81m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 8.71b / Total Assets 11.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.17% (Interest Expense 93.7m / Debt 8.01b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 211.4m (EBIT 267.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.10 (Total Current Assets 775.2m / Total Current Liabilities 8.05b)
Debt / Equity = 5.84 (Debt 8.01b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.54 (Net Debt -724.6m / EBITDA 470.6m)
Debt / FCF = -8.08 (Net Debt -724.6m / FCF TTM 89.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.90% (Net Income 164.8m / Total Assets 11.68b)
RoE = 15.60% (Net Income TTM 164.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.06b)
RoCE = 7.38% (EBIT 267.6m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 11.68b - Current Liab 8.05b))
RoIC = 9.22% (EBIT 267.6m / (Assets 11.68b - Curr.Liab 8.05b - Cash 726.1m))
WACC = 2.03% (E(1.43b)/V(9.44b) * Re(8.21%) + D(8.01b)/V(9.44b) * Rd(1.17%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 78.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.85% ; FCFF base≈57.3m ; Y1≈40.1m ; Y5≈20.8m
Fair Price DCF = 7.51 (EV 653.2m - Net Debt -724.6m = Equity 1.38b / Shares 183.3m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -35.24% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -20.68 | EPS CAGR: -35.18% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 48.18 | Revenue CAGR: 252.3% | SUE: 2.03 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+0.015 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=+0.110 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+60.0% | Growth Revenue=+99.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+11.4% | Growth Revenue=+5.7%