(OSG) Octave Specialty - Overview
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Insurance - Specialty | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 253m USD | Total Return: -33.2% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 2.19M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -50.0%
Warnings
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
Confidence
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (NYSE: OSG), formerly Ambac Financial Group, Inc., is a New York-based insurance holding company specializing in property and casualty (P&C) risks across the United States and the United Kingdom. The company operates through two primary divisions: Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance, which targets commercial and personal liability programs, and Insurance Distribution, which manages a diversified portfolio including professional lines, surety, and marine insurance.
The specialty insurance sector typically focuses on niche risks that standard carriers avoid, allowing for more flexible underwriting terms and pricing structures. By operating an insurance distribution segment alongside its underwriting arm, the company utilizes a capital-light brokerage model to generate fee-based income, which can offset the volatility associated with direct insurance claims. Investors may find it useful to examine ValueRay for deeper insights into the companys valuation metrics.
Incorporated in 1991 and rebranded in late 2025, Octave Specialty Group maintains a micro-cap market presence within the broader financials sector. Its business model integrates both risk-bearing insurance activities and non-risk-bearing distribution services to capture value across the insurance lifecycle.
- Program insurance premium growth drives Specialty Property and Casualty revenue
- Insurance Distribution segment expansion increases fee-based income and margins
- Underwriting profitability fluctuates based on commercial and personal liability loss ratios
- Strategic transition from financial guarantees to specialty insurance impacts valuation multiples
| Net Income: -199.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 60.49% < 20% (prev 1.97%; Δ 58.52% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -49.8m > Net Income -199.3m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.19 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.3m) vs 12m ago -4.25% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 78.63% > 18% (prev -0.39%; Δ 7.90k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.56% > 50% (prev 1.19%; Δ 4.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -4.84 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -29.0m / Interest Expense TTM 15.3m) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 1.13b - Total Current Liabilities 955.0m) / Total Assets 2.27b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 363.8m / Total Assets 2.27b) |
| C: -0.01 (EBIT TTM -74.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.26b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 365.5m / Total Liabilities 1.24b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.25 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.46 (Receivables 663.7m/481.5m, Revenue 292.6m/98.6m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.56 (AQ_t 0.50 / AQ_t-1 0.88) |
| SGI: 2.97 (Revenue 292.6m / 98.6m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI -199.3m - CFO -49.8m) / TA 2.27b) |
| Beneish M = -2.38 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of May 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.38 with a total of 347,826 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.19%,
over one month by +18.76%,
over three months by +0.56% and
over the past year by -33.17%.
Octave Specialty has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 60.6061
P/S = 0.8629
P/B = 0.3544
Revenue TTM = 292.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -74.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -29.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 117.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.52m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 117.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -205.9m USD (calculated: Debt 117.1m - CCE 322.9m)
Enterprise Value = 46.7m USD (252.5m + Debt 117.1m - CCE 322.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.84 (Ebit TTM -74.0m / Interest Expense TTM 15.3m)
EV/FCF = -0.94x (Enterprise Value 46.7m / FCF TTM -49.8m)
FCF Yield = -106.6% (FCF TTM -49.8m / Enterprise Value 46.7m)
FCF Margin = -17.00% (FCF TTM -49.8m / Revenue TTM 292.6m)
Net Margin = -68.12% (Net Income TTM -199.3m / Revenue TTM 292.6m)
Gross Margin = 78.63% ((Revenue TTM 292.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 62.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 61.55% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.02 (Enterprise Value 46.7m / Total Assets 2.27b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.05% (Interest Expense 15.3m / Debt 117.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -58.4m (EBIT -74.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.19 (Total Current Assets 1.13b / Total Current Liabilities 955.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 117.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 712.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.10 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -205.9m / EBITDA -29.0m)
Debt / FCF = 4.14 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -205.9m / FCF TTM -49.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 782.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.79% (Net Income -199.3m / Total Assets 2.27b)
RoE = -25.46% (Net Income TTM -199.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 782.9m)
RoCE = -8.22% (EBIT -74.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 782.9m + L.T.Debt 117.1m))
RoIC = -4.46% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -58.4m / Invested Capital 1.31b)
WACC = 9.47% (E(252.5m)/V(369.6m) * Re(9.08%) + D(117.1m)/V(369.6m) * Rd(13.05%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 2.22 | Cagr: -0.28%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -49.8m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -50.05 | Revenue CAGR: -26.76% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.04 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+177.6% | GrowthRev=+47.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+92.2% | GrowthRev=+10.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%