(OWL) Blue Owl Capital - Overview
Stock: Permanent Capital, Direct Lending, GP Stakes, Real Estate, Net Lease
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.70% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.31 |
| Alpha | -69.74 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.728 |
| Beta Downside | 1.957 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 54.61% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.02 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: OWL Blue Owl Capital February 11, 2026
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (NYSE: OWL) is a U.S.–based alternative asset manager that leverages a permanent-capital structure to deliver a suite of financing solutions. Its offerings span direct-lending products (including diversified, technology-focused, first-lien and opportunistic loans to middle-market firms), alternative and investment-grade credit, GP strategic capital (minority stakes, GP debt and sports-team investments), and real-estate assets centered on triple-net leases and credit-worthy tenants.
According to the company’s Q3 2025 earnings release, Blue Owl managed roughly **$120 billion** in assets under management (AUM), generated **$1.2 billion** in revenue, and posted **$210 million** of net income, translating to a **17.5%** net margin-up from 15.8% a year earlier. The firm’s direct-lending portfolio grew **12% YoY**, driven largely by increased allocations to technology-enabled middle-market borrowers.
Two macro-level forces shape Blue Owl’s outlook: (1) **U.S. corporate credit spreads have remained relatively tight despite a 3-point rise in the Fed Funds rate since 2023**, sustaining demand for private credit as banks pull back from middle-market lending; and (2) **the alternative-credit sector expanded 9% in 2024, outpacing total asset-manager growth of 5%**, indicating a favorable supply-demand imbalance for firms that can provide permanent-capital solutions.
If you’re looking to validate the valuation assumptions behind OWL’s current market price, a quick check of the underlying data on ValueRay can provide a useful benchmark.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 78.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.78 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.87% < 20% (prev 19.57%; Δ -11.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 873.2m > Net Income 78.8m |
| Net Debt (3.64b) to EBITDA (941.1m): 3.87 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (664.8m) vs 12m ago 19.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 55.38% > 18% (prev 0.56%; Δ 5482 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 24.47% > 50% (prev 20.88%; Δ 3.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.38 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 941.1m / Interest Expense TTM 163.8m) |
Altman Z'' 0.42
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 863.2m - Total Current Liabilities 637.3m) / Total Assets 12.47b |
| B: -0.12 (Retained Earnings -1.51b / Total Assets 12.47b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 553.6m / Avg Total Assets 11.73b) |
| D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 2.30b / Total Liabilities 6.29b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.42 = B |
Beneish M
| DSRI: none (Receivables none/575.4m, Revenue 2.87b/2.30b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 55.38% / 55.67%) |
| AQI: none (AQ_t none / AQ_t-1 none) |
| SGI: 1.25 (Revenue 2.87b / 2.30b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 78.8m - CFO 873.2m) / TA 12.47b) |
| Beneish M-Score: cannot calculate (missing components) |
What is the price of OWL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.29%, over one month by -24.56%, over three months by -16.03% and over the past year by -49.89%.
Is OWL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OWL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17.8 | 53.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 17.8 | 53.5% |
OWL Fundamental Data Overview February 20, 2026
P/E Forward = 15.4321
P/S = 6.3069
P/B = 3.3532
P/EG = 0.1715
Revenue TTM = 2.87b USD
EBIT TTM = 553.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 941.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.23b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 3.78b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = 3.64b USD (calculated as Total Debt 3.78b - CCE 137.3m)
Enterprise Value = 21.74b USD (18.10b + Debt 3.78b - CCE 137.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.38 (Ebit TTM 553.6m / Interest Expense TTM 163.8m)
EV/FCF = 25.91x (Enterprise Value 21.74b / FCF TTM 839.2m)
FCF Yield = 3.86% (FCF TTM 839.2m / Enterprise Value 21.74b)
FCF Margin = 29.24% (FCF TTM 839.2m / Revenue TTM 2.87b)
Net Margin = 2.75% (Net Income TTM 78.8m / Revenue TTM 2.87b)
Gross Margin = 55.38% ((Revenue TTM 2.87b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.00% (prev 53.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.74 (Enterprise Value 21.74b / Total Assets 12.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 40.9m / Debt 3.78b)
Taxrate = 10.14% (17.0m / 167.8m)
NOPAT = 497.4m (EBIT 553.6m * (1 - 10.14%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 863.2m / Total Current Liabilities 637.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.61 (Debt 3.78b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.18b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.87 (Net Debt 3.64b / EBITDA 941.1m)
Debt / FCF = 4.34 (Net Debt 3.64b / FCF TTM 839.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.29b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.67% (Net Income 78.8m / Total Assets 12.47b)
RoE = 2.40% (Net Income TTM 78.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.29b)
RoCE = 8.49% (EBIT 553.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.29b + L.T.Debt 3.23b))
RoIC = 8.96% (NOPAT 497.4m / Invested Capital 5.55b)
WACC = 10.33% (E(18.10b)/V(21.88b) * Re(12.28%) + D(3.78b)/V(21.88b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 12.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 16.68%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.08% ; FCFF base≈877.6m ; Y1≈1.08b ; Y5≈1.84b
Fair Price DCF = 26.25 (EV 21.09b - Net Debt 3.64b = Equity 17.45b / Shares 664.8m; r=10.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 3.04 | EPS CAGR: 23.13% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.73 | Revenue CAGR: 30.81% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 7
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-7 | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=-0.026 | Revisions Net=-11 | Growth EPS=+12.8% | Growth Revenue=+15.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.11 | Chg30d=-0.034 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+17.1% | Growth Revenue=+17.2%