(PAAS) Pan American Silver - Overview
Stock: Silver, Gold, Zinc, Lead, Copper
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.59% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.40% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.85% |
| Payout Consistency | 90.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.23 |
| Alpha | 180.97 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.704 |
| Beta Downside | 0.972 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.50% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.50 |
Description: PAAS Pan American Silver January 03, 2026
Pan American Silver Corp. (NYSE: PAAS) is a vertically integrated miner that explores, develops, extracts, processes, refines, and reclaims metal assets across North and South America-including Canada, Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil. Its commodity focus spans silver, gold, zinc, lead, and copper, reflecting a diversified metal portfolio that can mitigate single-commodity price risk.
Key operational metrics (as of FY 2023) show the company produced roughly **31.5 million ounces of silver** and **0.5 million ounces of gold**, with an all-in sustaining cash cost of **≈ $9.5 per ounce of silver** and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of **~ 2.1×**. These figures suggest a relatively low-cost position in the sector, but the debt leverage remains a material consideration if commodity prices weaken.
Macro-level drivers that materially affect PAAS include: (1) **global silver demand** from industrial applications (photovoltaics, electronics) and investment demand as an inflation hedge; (2) **exchange-rate exposure**, since a significant portion of revenue is denominated in USD while many operating costs are in local currencies; and (3) **political risk** in Latin American jurisdictions, which can impact permitting timelines and tax regimes. An adverse swing in any of these variables could materially alter cash-flow forecasts.
Assumption: the FY 2023 production and cost data disclosed by PAAS are accurate and comparable year-over-year. Uncertainty: future silver price trajectories are volatile, and policy shifts in host countries could affect operating margins.
For a deeper dive into PAAS’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, see the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 634.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.92% < 20% (prev 29.18%; Δ 1.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 1.05b > Net Income 634.1m |
| Net Debt (-13.2m) to EBITDA (1.52b): -0.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (378.9m) vs 12m ago 4.36% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.40% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 3123 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 39.94% > 50% (prev 37.38%; Δ 2.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.18 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 56.7m) |
Altman Z'' 3.92
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.77b - Total Current Liabilities 766.4m) / Total Assets 9.15b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -898.7m / Total Assets 9.15b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 973.5m / Avg Total Assets 8.15b) |
| D: 2.58 (Book Value of Equity 6.52b / Total Liabilities 2.52b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.92 = AA |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 237.5m/204.1m, Revenue 3.25b/2.67b) |
| GMI: 0.54 (GM 31.40% / 16.86%) |
| AQI: 13.33 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.22 (Revenue 3.25b / 2.67b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 634.1m - CFO 1.05b) / TA 9.15b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 3.94 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of PAAS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.54%, over one month by +21.15%, over three months by +81.05% and over the past year by +184.85%.
Is PAAS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PAAS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 56 | -11.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 56 | -11.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 73.2 | 15.6% |
PAAS Fundamental Data Overview January 24, 2026
P/E Forward = 18.1488
P/S = 8.0032
P/B = 3.9367
P/EG = 7.59
Revenue TTM = 3.25b USD
EBIT TTM = 973.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.52b USD
Long Term Debt = 707.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 59.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 857.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -13.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 25.99b USD (26.05b + Debt 857.0m - CCE 910.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.18 (Ebit TTM 973.5m / Interest Expense TTM 56.7m)
EV/FCF = 34.84x (Enterprise Value 25.99b / FCF TTM 746.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.87% (FCF TTM 746.1m / Enterprise Value 25.99b)
FCF Margin = 22.92% (FCF TTM 746.1m / Revenue TTM 3.25b)
Net Margin = 19.48% (Net Income TTM 634.1m / Revenue TTM 3.25b)
Gross Margin = 31.40% ((Revenue TTM 3.25b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.63% (prev 33.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.84 (Enterprise Value 25.99b / Total Assets 9.15b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.66% (Interest Expense 14.2m / Debt 857.0m)
Taxrate = 32.08% (79.9m / 249.1m)
NOPAT = 661.2m (EBIT 973.5m * (1 - 32.08%))
Current Ratio = 2.31 (Total Current Assets 1.77b / Total Current Liabilities 766.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 857.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.62b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.01 (Net Debt -13.2m / EBITDA 1.52b)
Debt / FCF = -0.02 (Net Debt -13.2m / FCF TTM 746.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.27b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.78% (Net Income 634.1m / Total Assets 9.15b)
RoE = 12.02% (Net Income TTM 634.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.27b)
RoCE = 16.28% (EBIT 973.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.27b + L.T.Debt 707.0m))
RoIC = 11.05% (NOPAT 661.2m / Invested Capital 5.98b)
WACC = 8.27% (E(26.05b)/V(26.91b) * Re(8.51%) + D(857.0m)/V(26.91b) * Rd(1.66%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 8.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 4.72%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.97% ; FCFF base≈551.9m ; Y1≈362.3m ; Y5≈165.3m
Fair Price DCF = 7.34 (EV 3.08b - Net Debt -13.2m = Equity 3.10b / Shares 422.0m; r=8.27% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 61.02 | EPS CAGR: -31.76% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.50 | Revenue CAGR: 20.69% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=-0.148 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.50 | Chg30d=-0.180 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+57.6% | Growth Revenue=+21.2%