(PACS) PACS - Overview
Stock: Skilled Nursing, Assisted Living, Independent Living, Healthcare Properties
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 65.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -25.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.40 |
| Alpha | 153.25 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.689 |
| Beta Downside | 0.586 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 82.04% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.40 |
Description: PACS PACS January 16, 2026
PACS Group, Inc. (NYSE: PACS) operates skilled-nursing, assisted-living, senior-care, and independent-living facilities across the United States and also acquires, owns, and leases health-care-related real-estate. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Farmington, Utah, the company is classified under the Health Care Facilities sub-industry.
As of the latest quarterly filing (Q3 2024), PACS reported an occupancy rate of roughly 92 % and an average daily rate (ADR) near $210 per resident, delivering an 8 % year-over-year revenue increase. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of about 0.8, and cash flow from operations comfortably covers interest obligations, which is a key metric for capital-intensive senior-care REITs.
Key drivers for PACS and its peers include the continued aging of the U.S. population (the 65-plus cohort is projected to reach 21 % of the total by 2030), evolving Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement policies, and labor-cost pressures in the caregiving sector. Interest-rate trends also affect the cost of financing new acquisitions and the valuation of existing property portfolios.
For a deeper dive into PACS’s valuation metrics, you might explore the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 169.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.38% < 20% (prev 1.40%; Δ -2.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 472.2m > Net Income 169.0m |
| Net Debt (2.87b) to EBITDA (99.2m): 28.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.94 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (164.7m) vs 12m ago 6.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.08% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 1595 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 101.3% > 50% (prev 84.04%; Δ 17.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.92 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 99.2m / Interest Expense TTM 29.1m) |
Altman Z'' 0.23
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.13b - Total Current Liabilities 1.20b) / Total Assets 5.63b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 249.9m / Total Assets 5.63b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 84.8m / Avg Total Assets 5.07b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 250.0m / Total Liabilities 4.75b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.23 = B |
Beneish M -3.08
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 694.7m/574.6m, Revenue 5.14b/3.80b) |
| GMI: 0.84 (GM 16.08% / 13.46%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.35 (Revenue 5.14b / 3.80b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 169.0m - CFO 472.2m) / TA 5.63b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of PACS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.27%, over one month by -6.48%, over three months by +209.44% and over the past year by +173.16%.
Is PACS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PACS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.7 | -10.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 34.7 | -10.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 45.6 | 17.9% |
PACS Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 18.5874
P/S = 1.1788
P/B = 6.9525
P/EG = 1.2397
Revenue TTM = 5.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 84.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 99.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 245.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 258.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.22b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.87b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.10b USD (2.24b + Debt 3.22b - CCE 355.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.92 (Ebit TTM 84.8m / Interest Expense TTM 29.1m)
EV/FCF = 11.78x (Enterprise Value 5.10b / FCF TTM 433.5m)
FCF Yield = 8.49% (FCF TTM 433.5m / Enterprise Value 5.10b)
FCF Margin = 8.44% (FCF TTM 433.5m / Revenue TTM 5.14b)
Net Margin = 3.29% (Net Income TTM 169.0m / Revenue TTM 5.14b)
Gross Margin = 16.08% ((Revenue TTM 5.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.19% (prev 14.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 5.10b / Total Assets 5.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.26% (Interest Expense 8.53m / Debt 3.22b)
Taxrate = 31.41% (24.0m / 76.3m)
NOPAT = 58.2m (EBIT 84.8m * (1 - 31.41%))
Current Ratio = 0.94 (Total Current Assets 1.13b / Total Current Liabilities 1.20b)
Debt / Equity = 3.70 (Debt 3.22b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 871.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 28.88 (Net Debt 2.87b / EBITDA 99.2m)
Debt / FCF = 6.61 (Net Debt 2.87b / FCF TTM 433.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 784.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.33% (Net Income 169.0m / Total Assets 5.63b)
RoE = 21.55% (Net Income TTM 169.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 784.5m)
RoCE = 8.23% (EBIT 84.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 784.5m + L.T.Debt 245.9m))
RoIC = 4.95% (NOPAT 58.2m / Invested Capital 1.18b)
WACC = 3.57% (E(2.24b)/V(5.46b) * Re(8.45%) + D(3.22b)/V(5.46b) * Rd(0.26%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 8.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 158.5%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.38% ; FCFF base≈334.5m ; Y1≈336.1m ; Y5≈359.2m
Fair Price DCF = 50.55 (EV 10.71b - Net Debt 2.87b = Equity 7.84b / Shares 155.2m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -1.20 | EPS CAGR: -56.37% | SUE: -3.09 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.12 | Revenue CAGR: 29.21% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0