PAG Stock Analysis: Penske Automotive | NYSE
Auto & Truck Dealerships | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 12.848m USD | 12M Return: 28.1% | US70959W1036 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 90.1M
EPS Trend: -89.1%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 98.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) is a diversified transportation services company that operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and other international markets. The company reports through four segments: Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments, and operates franchise dealerships under agreements with various automotive manufacturers and distributors.
Core business activities include the sale of new and used vehicles, maintenance and repair services, placement of third-party finance and insurance (F&I) products, extended service contracts, aftermarket parts, collision repair services, and wholesale parts distribution. Under the franchise dealership model, vehicle sales depend on manufacturer relationships, while F&I and service operations typically generate higher-margin, recurring revenue streams characteristic of the automotive retail industry.
In its commercial truck business, Penske operates heavy and medium duty truck dealerships offering Freightliner and Western Star branded trucks and used trucks. It also imports and distributes Western Star and MAN heavy and medium duty trucks and buses, as well as Dennis Eagle refuse collection vehicles, and distributes diesel and gas engines and power systems.
Penske Automotive Group was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. The company operates as a subsidiary of Penske Corporation, Inc., and is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Automotive Retail sub-industry.
- Luxury vehicle demand drives premium dealership margins
- Used vehicle gross profit swings with wholesale pricing trends
- UK and European operations face currency and macro headwinds
| Net Income: 936.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.62 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.50% < 20% (prev -2.24%; Δ 1.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 894.0m > Net Income 936.0m |
| Net Debt (11.6b) to EBITDA (1.72b): 6.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.98 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (65.8m) vs 12m ago -0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.12% > 18% (prev 16.54%; Δ -0.42% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 183.5% > 50% (prev 179.9%; Δ 3.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.54b / Interest Expense TTM 271.4m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 6.51b - Total Current Liabilities 6.67b) / Total Assets 18.5b |
| B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 6.03b / Total Assets 18.5b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 1.54b / Avg Total Assets 17.9b) |
| D: 0.46 (Book Value of Equity 5.83b / Total Liabilities 12.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.07 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 1.06b/1.04b, Revenue 32.9b/31.3b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 16.54% / 16.12%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 32.9b / 31.3b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 936.0m - CFO 894.0m) / TA 18.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 212.00 with a total of 3,240,535 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.04%, over one month by -1.90%, over three months by +6.49% and over the past year by +28.07%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 207.80 (which is 2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Penske Automotive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.30. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PAG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 209.4 | -1.2% |
P/E Trailing = 13.6928
P/E Forward = 14.6843
P/S = 0.399
P/B = 2.3696
P/EG = 2.1138
Revenue TTM = 32.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.54b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.72b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.12b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.74b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.39b
Net Debt = 11.6b USD (calculated: Debt 11.6b - CCE 69.5m)
Enterprise Value = 24.4b USD (12.8b + Debt 11.6b - CCE 69.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.67 (Ebit TTM 1.54b / Interest Expense TTM 271.4m)
EV/FCF = 41.24x (Enterprise Value 24.4b / FCF TTM 592.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.42% (FCF TTM 592.1m / Enterprise Value 24.4b)
FCF Margin = 1.80% (FCF TTM 592.1m / Revenue TTM 32.9b)
Net Margin = 2.84% (Net Income TTM 936.0m / Revenue TTM 32.9b)
Gross Margin = 16.12% ((Revenue TTM 32.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 27.6b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.94% (prev 16.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.32 (Enterprise Value 24.4b / Total Assets 18.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.33% (Interest Expense 271.4m / Debt 11.6b)
Taxrate = 25.97% (329.1m / 1.27b)
NOPAT = 1.14b (EBIT 1.54b * (1 - 25.97%))
Current Ratio = 0.98 (Total Current Assets 6.51b / Total Current Liabilities 6.67b)
Debt / Equity = 2.00 (Debt 11.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.83b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.74 (Net Debt 11.6b / EBITDA 1.72b)
Debt / FCF = 19.54 (Net Debt 11.6b / FCF TTM 592.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.22% (Net Income 936.0m / Total Assets 18.5b)
RoE = 16.43% (Net Income TTM 936.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.70b)
RoCE = 19.69% (EBIT 1.54b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.70b + L.T.Debt 2.12b))
RoIC = 6.91% (NOPAT 1.14b / Invested Capital 16.5b)
WACC = 4.48% (E(12.8b)/V(24.5b) * Re(6.98%) + D(11.6b)/V(24.5b) * Rd(2.33%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.70 | Cagr: -0.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.82% ; FCFF base≈621.0m ; Y1≈566.5m ; Y5≈495.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 7.87b - Net Debt 11.6b = -3.70b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -89.11 | EPS CAGR: -7.91% | SUE: 1.28 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 98.28 | Revenue CAGR: 4.55% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.35 | Chg30d=-5.59% | Revisions=+42% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.27 | Chg30d=-2.34% | Revisions=+73% | GrowthEPS=+0.1% | GrowthRev=+6.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.12 | Chg30d=-0.41% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+3.5% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +54% (up=17, down=4)