PAG Stock Analysis: Penske Automotive | NYSE
Auto & Truck Dealerships | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 12.001m USD | 12M Return: 17.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 53.4M
EPS Trend: -89.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 96.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Penske Automotive Group is a diversified transportation services company headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, operating automotive and commercial truck dealerships across more than nine countries including the U.S., U.K., Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The company reports through four segments: Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments.
The companys core business revolves around franchise dealerships selling new and used vehicles under agreements with various automotive manufacturers, complemented by maintenance and repair services, collision repair, wholesale parts, and the sale of third-party finance, insurance, and extended service products. Its commercial truck operations include heavy and medium duty dealerships for Freightliner and Western Star brands, as well as the importation and distribution of Western Star, MAN, and Dennis Eagle vehicles, plus diesel and gas engines and power systems. The franchise dealership business model typically relies on a combination of new vehicle sales, higher-margin finance and insurance income, and recurring service and parts revenue to drive overall profitability.
Founded in 1990 and listed on the NYSE in 1996, Penske is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Automotive Retail sub-industry, with a large-cap market capitalization. The automotive retail sector is generally sensitive to consumer spending cycles, credit conditions, and new vehicle supply dynamics.
- U.S. new vehicle inventory rebuild pressures gross profit margins
- Luxury and premium brand mix drives dealership segment profitability
- Commercial truck segment revenue tracks freight and logistics demand
- Share buybacks and dividends return capital to shareholders
| Net Income: 925.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.73% < 20% (prev -2.12%; Δ 1.39% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 775.3m > Net Income 925.6m |
| Net Debt (11.7b) to EBITDA (1.69b): 6.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (65.8m) vs 12m ago -1.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.36% > 18% (prev 16.45%; Δ -0.09% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 181.9% > 50% (prev 180.8%; Δ 1.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.51b / Interest Expense TTM 222.0m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 6.32b - Total Current Liabilities 6.55b) / Total Assets 18.3b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 5.87b / Total Assets 18.3b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 1.51b / Avg Total Assets 17.6b) |
| D: 0.45 (Book Value of Equity 5.68b / Total Liabilities 12.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.01 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.86 (Receivables 1.08b/1.20b, Revenue 32.1b/30.6b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 16.45% / 16.36%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 32.1b / 30.6b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 925.6m - CFO 775.3m) / TA 18.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 200.40 with a total of 290,499 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.80%, over one month by +11.29%, over three months by +30.29% and over the past year by +17.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 194.60 (which is 2.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Penske Automotive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.73. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PAG.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 184.7 | -7.8% |
P/E Trailing = 13.3714
P/E Forward = 13.6799
P/S = 0.3783
P/B = 2.1293
P/EG = 2.3183
Revenue TTM = 32.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.51b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.69b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.21b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.69b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.43b
Net Debt = 11.7b USD (calculated: Debt 11.8b - CCE 83.7m)
Enterprise Value = 23.7b USD (12.0b + Debt 11.8b - CCE 83.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.82 (Ebit TTM 1.51b / Interest Expense TTM 222.0m)
EV/FCF = 50.96x (Enterprise Value 23.7b / FCF TTM 464.7m)
FCF Yield = 1.96% (FCF TTM 464.7m / Enterprise Value 23.7b)
FCF Margin = 1.45% (FCF TTM 464.7m / Revenue TTM 32.1b)
Net Margin = 2.89% (Net Income TTM 925.6m / Revenue TTM 32.1b)
Gross Margin = 16.36% ((Revenue TTM 32.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.52% (prev 15.85%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 23.7b / Total Assets 18.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.89% (Interest Expense 222.0m / Debt 11.8b)
Taxrate = 25.85% (323.2m / 1.25b)
NOPAT = 1.12b (EBIT 1.51b * (1 - 25.85%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 6.32b / Total Current Liabilities 6.55b)
Debt / Equity = 2.07 (Debt 11.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.68b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.90 (Net Debt 11.7b / EBITDA 1.69b)
Debt / FCF = 25.13 (Net Debt 11.7b / FCF TTM 464.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.64b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.25% (Net Income 925.6m / Total Assets 18.3b)
RoE = 16.41% (Net Income TTM 925.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.64b)
RoCE = 19.29% (EBIT 1.51b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.64b + L.T.Debt 2.21b))
RoIC = 6.86% (NOPAT 1.12b / Invested Capital 16.4b)
WACC = 4.90% (E(12.0b)/V(23.8b) * Re(8.33%) + D(11.8b)/V(23.8b) * Rd(1.89%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.14 | Cagr: -0.93%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈573.5m ; Y1≈502.9m ; Y5≈406.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 6.52b - Net Debt 11.7b = -5.16b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -89.79 | EPS CAGR: -9.19% | SUE: 0.88 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 96.75 | Revenue CAGR: 3.51% | SUE: 0.25 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.48 | Chg30d=+1.69% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.49 | Chg30d=+0.32% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.38 | Chg30d=-0.19% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1.0% | GrowthRev=+4.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.15 | Chg30d=+0.55% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+5.0% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +15% (up=6, down=4)