PAGS Stock Analysis: PagSeguro Digital | NYSE
Software - Infrastructure | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.095m USD | 12M Return: -11.7% | KYG687071012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 36.8M
EPS Trend: 39.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.8 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (NYSE: PAGS) is a Brazil-based fintech company that provides a broad range of digital financial and payment solutions targeting consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized businesses, with operations extending internationally. Its offerings span digital banking services (bill payments, Pix, transfers, ATM withdrawals), debit, credit, and prepaid cards, credit products such as payroll and working capital loans, insurance products, and investment services including fixed income and stocks through PagBank.
The company also runs cashback programs and Shopping PagBank, an online marketplace, and provides merchant-facing software tools such as PagVendas (POS software), ClubPag (marketing), PlugPag (Bluetooth payment integration), and Envio Fácil (logistics). Founded in 2006 and headquartered in São Paulo, PagSeguro went public on the NYSE in January 2018 and is classified under the GICS Industrials sector, specifically within Data Processing & Outsourced Services, reflecting its position as a payment processor and digital banking platform operating within Brazils rapidly growing fintech and instant payments (Pix) ecosystem.
- Brazilian SELIC rate cuts compress net interest margins
- PIX competition from central bank pressures payment fee revenue
- Credit portfolio delinquency rises on weaker consumer spending
- BRL depreciation pressures USD reported earnings and margins
| Net Income: 2.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 118.2% < 20% (prev 95.80%; Δ 22.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 653.8m > Net Income 2.15b |
| Net Debt (45.2b) to EBITDA (9.70b): 4.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (279.5m) vs 12m ago -7.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.34% > 18% (prev 49.19%; Δ 2.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.95% > 50% (prev 27.12%; Δ -0.17% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM 7.85b / Interest Expense TTM 5.25b) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 65.9b - Total Current Liabilities 42.5b) / Total Assets 75.7b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 12.0b / Total Assets 75.7b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 7.85b / Avg Total Assets 73.4b) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 15.0b / Total Liabilities 60.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.52 = A |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 58.9b/56.2b, Revenue 19.8b/19.3b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 49.19% / 51.34%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 19.8b / 19.3b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 2.15b - CFO 653.8m) / TA 75.7b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.82 with a total of 3,737,349 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.09%, over one month by -29.80%, over three months by -7.63% and over the past year by -11.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.20 (which is 7.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
PagSeguro Digital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.38. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PAGS.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 10 | 27.7% |
Market Cap BRL = 11.7b (2.09b USD * 5.5827 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 5.3521
P/E Forward = 6.1728
P/S = 0.1058
P/B = 0.762
Revenue TTM = 19.8b BRL
EBIT TTM = 7.85b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 9.70b BRL
Long Term Debt = 14.7b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 30.9b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 46.6b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 45.2b BRL (calculated: Debt 46.6b - CCE 1.39b)
Enterprise Value = 56.9b BRL (11.7b + Debt 46.6b - CCE 1.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.49 (Ebit TTM 7.85b / Interest Expense TTM 5.25b)
EV/FCF = -100.6x (Enterprise Value 56.9b / FCF TTM -565.5m)
FCF Yield = -0.99% (FCF TTM -565.5m / Enterprise Value 56.9b)
FCF Margin = -2.86% (FCF TTM -565.5m / Revenue TTM 19.8b)
Net Margin = 10.85% (Net Income TTM 2.15b / Revenue TTM 19.8b)
Gross Margin = 51.34% ((Revenue TTM 19.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.53% (prev 51.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 56.9b / Total Assets 75.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.27% (Interest Expense 5.25b / Debt 46.6b)
Taxrate = 17.38% (451.8m / 2.60b)
NOPAT = 6.48b (EBIT 7.85b * (1 - 17.38%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 65.9b / Total Current Liabilities 42.5b)
Debt / Equity = 3.10 (Debt 46.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.66 (Net Debt 45.2b / EBITDA 9.70b)
Debt / FCF = -79.97 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 45.2b / FCF TTM -565.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 14.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.93% (Net Income 2.15b / Total Assets 75.7b)
RoE = 14.60% (Net Income TTM 2.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 14.7b)
RoCE = 26.69% (EBIT 7.85b / Capital Employed (Equity 14.7b + L.T.Debt 14.7b))
RoIC = 10.28% (NOPAT 6.48b / Invested Capital 63.1b)
WACC = 9.29% (E(11.7b)/V(58.3b) * Re(9.19%) + D(46.6b)/V(58.3b) * Rd(11.27%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 9.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.64 | Cagr: -6.00%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -565.5m)
EPS Correlation: 39.44 | EPS CAGR: 7.15% | SUE: 0.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.88 | Revenue CAGR: 12.77% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.10 | Chg30d=+0.85% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.49 | Chg30d=-0.57% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+6.7% | GrowthRev=+2.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.30 | Chg30d=-2.93% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+9.6% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)