(PAGS) PagSeguro Digital - Ratings and Ratios
Payments, Banking, Credit, Cards, Marketplace, Software
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.97% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.73% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -5.01% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 5.0% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 66.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.17% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.10 |
| Alpha | 32.27 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.517 |
| Beta | 1.079 |
| Beta Downside | 0.720 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.60% |
| Mean DD | 26.36% |
| Median DD | 27.89% |
Description: PAGS PagSeguro Digital November 10, 2025
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (NYSE:PAGS) operates a diversified fintech platform in Brazil, offering digital banking, payment processing, credit, insurance, and investment services to consumers, micro-merchants, and SMEs, alongside a suite of merchant-focused software tools such as the PagVendas POS app and PlugPag connectivity solution.
As of its latest filing, PagSeguro reported roughly 70 million active users and processed over R$30 billion in transactions in 2023, driving a 19 % YoY increase in net revenue to $1.2 billion; the company’s credit portfolio grew 22 % YoY, reflecting strong demand for payroll and working-capital loans amid Brazil’s high-inflation environment. Key macro drivers include Brazil’s rapid shift toward cashless payments (projected to reach 70 % of total retail transactions by 2026) and the Open Banking regulatory framework that lowers entry barriers for fintechs, while competitive pressure from rivals like Stone and Nubank remains a material risk.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of PagSeguro’s valuation dynamics and risk profile, you may find it worthwhile to explore the company’s metrics on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (2.22b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.17b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 8.33pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 95.75% (prev 114.8%; Δ -19.06pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 5.03b > Net Income 2.22b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (40.42b) to EBITDA (8.89b) ratio: 4.55 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.42 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (294.9m) change vs 12m ago -8.03% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 50.04% (prev 47.73%; Δ 2.31pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 27.99% (prev 26.19%; Δ 1.80pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.52 (EBITDA TTM 8.89b / Interest Expense TTM 4.69b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.17
| (A) 0.26 = (Total Current Assets 63.19b - Total Current Liabilities 44.50b) / Total Assets 72.29b |
| (B) 0.15 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 11.01b / Total Assets 72.29b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 7.12b / Avg Total Assets 69.75b |
| (D) 0.27 = Book Value of Equity 15.65b / Total Liabilities 57.40b |
| Total Rating: 3.17 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 70.70
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.57% |
| 3. FCF Margin 16.02% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.81 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 4.55 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.38)% |
| 7. RoE 15.00% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 77.00% |
| 9. EPS Trend 28.02% |
What is the price of PAGS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.59%, over one month by -1.24%, over three months by -5.24% and over the past year by +57.90%.
Is PAGS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the PAGS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 11.9 | 24.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 11.9 | 24.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 10.6 | 10.5% |
PAGS Fundamental Data Overview December 17, 2025
P/E Trailing = 7.7077
P/E Forward = 6.7204
P/S = 0.1498
P/B = 1.0975
Beta = 1.441
Revenue TTM = 19.52b BRL
EBIT TTM = 7.12b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 8.89b BRL
Long Term Debt = 9.20b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 32.65b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 41.85b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 40.42b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 56.17b BRL (16.21b + Debt 41.85b - CCE 1.89b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.52 (Ebit TTM 7.12b / Interest Expense TTM 4.69b)
FCF Yield = 5.57% (FCF TTM 3.13b / Enterprise Value 56.17b)
FCF Margin = 16.02% (FCF TTM 3.13b / Revenue TTM 19.52b)
Net Margin = 11.35% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Revenue TTM 19.52b)
Gross Margin = 50.04% ((Revenue TTM 19.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.75b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.27% (prev 50.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.78 (Enterprise Value 56.17b / Total Assets 72.29b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.33% (Interest Expense 1.39b / Debt 41.85b)
Taxrate = 12.88% (81.9m / 636.4m)
NOPAT = 6.21b (EBIT 7.12b * (1 - 12.88%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 63.19b / Total Current Liabilities 44.50b)
Debt / Equity = 2.81 (Debt 41.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 14.89b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.55 (Net Debt 40.42b / EBITDA 8.89b)
Debt / FCF = 12.92 (Net Debt 40.42b / FCF TTM 3.13b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 14.77b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.06% (Net Income 2.22b / Total Assets 72.29b)
RoE = 15.00% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 14.77b)
RoCE = 29.72% (EBIT 7.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 14.77b + L.T.Debt 9.20b))
RoIC = 11.26% (NOPAT 6.21b / Invested Capital 55.11b)
WACC = 4.88% (E(16.21b)/V(58.06b) * Re(9.99%) + D(41.85b)/V(58.06b) * Rd(3.33%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 9.99% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.86%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 62.20% ; FCFE base≈3.13b ; Y1≈2.05b ; Y5≈939.0m
Fair Price DCF = 81.04 (DCF Value 13.82b / Shares Outstanding 170.5m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 28.02 | EPS CAGR: 11.73% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.00 | Revenue CAGR: 26.11% | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.90 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.55 | Chg30d=-0.026 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+11.1% | Growth Revenue=+5.6%
Additional Sources for PAGS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle