(PARR) Par Pacific Holdings - Overview
Stock: Gasoline, Diesel, Asphalt, Jet Fuel, Retail Merchandise
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 50.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.52% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.86 |
| Alpha | 127.18 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.908 |
| Beta Downside | 1.370 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 69.71% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.22 |
Description: PARR Par Pacific Holdings January 15, 2026
Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) is a vertically integrated energy firm that operates three primary segments-Refining, Retail, and Logistics-serving markets in Hawaii, the Intermountain West, and the U.S. West Coast. The Refining segment runs two refineries (Hawaii and Wyoming) with a combined crude-throughput capacity of roughly 225,000 barrels per day, producing gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and specialty products for regional demand. The Retail segment runs about 70 fuel stations under the Hele, 76, and nomnom brands, complemented by convenience-store sales of food and sundries. The Logistics segment owns a network of pipelines, terminals, marine moorings, rail loading facilities, and trucking assets that move ethanol, petroleum, and refined products across its service area, including a dedicated jet-fuel pipeline to Ellsworth AFB.
Key performance indicators from the most recent 10-K (FY 2023) show an adjusted EBITDA of $210 million, a net profit margin of 3.2 %, and total debt of $1.1 billion (net-debt/EBITDA ≈ 4.5×). The company’s refining margins are highly sensitive to the West Coast gasoline crack spread, which averaged $22 per barrel in Q4 2023, while its logistics assets provide a hedge against refinery-level volatility by generating fee-based revenue. Retail sales grew 5 % YoY, driven by higher fuel volumes in Hawaii’s tourism-heavy market.
Sector-wide drivers that will likely influence PARR’s outlook include: (1) U.S. gasoline demand trends, which are projected to rise modestly (≈ 1 % annual growth) as the economy recovers from pandemic-related travel disruptions; (2) refinery utilization rates on the West Coast, currently running at ≈ 85 % capacity, affecting crack spreads and inventory levels; and (3) regulatory risk, particularly California’s low-carbon fuel standards, which could pressure margins unless the company accelerates its transition to higher-octane or renewable blends. A material shift in crude-oil pricing (e.g., a sustained WTI-Brent spread compression) would also materially impact input costs and profitability.
If you want a data-rich, model-driven perspective on how these variables translate into valuation ranges for PARR, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can provide the quantitative depth you need.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 236.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.65 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.00% < 20% (prev 8.67%; Δ 0.33% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 256.3m > Net Income 236.0m |
| Net Debt (1.50b) to EBITDA (539.7m): 2.77 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (50.9m) vs 12m ago -9.47% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.60% > 18% (prev 0.12%; Δ 1448 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 188.7% > 50% (prev 216.1%; Δ -27.32% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.62 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 539.7m / Interest Expense TTM 86.3m) |
Altman Z'' 2.35
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 1.98b - Total Current Liabilities 1.31b) / Total Assets 4.08b |
| B: 0.12 (Retained Earnings 491.7m / Total Assets 4.08b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 398.8m / Avg Total Assets 3.96b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 502.4m / Total Liabilities 2.68b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.35 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.42
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 349.1m/429.7m, Revenue 7.48b/8.33b) |
| GMI: 0.80 (GM 14.60% / 11.70%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 0.90 (Revenue 7.48b / 8.33b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 236.0m - CFO 256.3m) / TA 4.08b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.42 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of PARR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +14.73%, over one month by +21.29%, over three months by +6.26% and over the past year by +155.46%.
Is PARR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PARR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 45.5 | 5.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 45.5 | 5.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 50.3 | 16.2% |
PARR Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 10.7527
P/S = 0.2562
P/B = 1.3138
Revenue TTM = 7.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 398.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 539.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 962.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 342.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.65b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.50b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.41b USD (1.92b + Debt 1.65b - CCE 159.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.62 (Ebit TTM 398.8m / Interest Expense TTM 86.3m)
EV/FCF = 39.07x (Enterprise Value 3.41b / FCF TTM 87.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.56% (FCF TTM 87.3m / Enterprise Value 3.41b)
FCF Margin = 1.17% (FCF TTM 87.3m / Revenue TTM 7.48b)
Net Margin = 3.15% (Net Income TTM 236.0m / Revenue TTM 7.48b)
Gross Margin = 14.60% ((Revenue TTM 7.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.39b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.78% (prev 14.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 3.41b / Total Assets 4.08b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.29% (Interest Expense 21.3m / Debt 1.65b)
Taxrate = 23.95% (82.7m / 345.3m)
NOPAT = 303.3m (EBIT 398.8m * (1 - 23.95%))
Current Ratio = 1.51 (Total Current Assets 1.98b / Total Current Liabilities 1.31b)
Debt / Equity = 1.19 (Debt 1.65b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.40b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.77 (Net Debt 1.50b / EBITDA 539.7m)
Debt / FCF = 17.12 (Net Debt 1.50b / FCF TTM 87.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.21b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.95% (Net Income 236.0m / Total Assets 4.08b)
RoE = 19.47% (Net Income TTM 236.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.21b)
RoCE = 18.34% (EBIT 398.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.21b + L.T.Debt 962.1m))
RoIC = 13.20% (NOPAT 303.3m / Invested Capital 2.30b)
WACC = 5.42% (E(1.92b)/V(3.57b) * Re(9.26%) + D(1.65b)/V(3.57b) * Rd(1.29%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.36%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈87.3m ; Y1≈57.3m ; Y5≈26.2m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 833.4m - Net Debt 1.50b = -661.7m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -28.83 | EPS CAGR: 20.53% | SUE: -1.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 41.96 | Revenue CAGR: 12.52% | SUE: 1.67 | # QB: 5
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.72 | Chg30d=-0.291 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.78 | Chg30d=-0.795 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-34.6% | Growth Revenue=-13.2%