(PBR-A) Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refined Products, Fertilizer, Biodiesel
PBR-A EPS (Earnings per Share)
PBR-A Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 48.3% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.34 |
| Alpha | 5.88 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.598 |
| Beta | 0.066 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.98% |
| Mean DD | 11.33% |
Description: PBR-A Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. September 26, 2025
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras (NYSE:PBR-A) is Brazil’s integrated oil and gas company, operating across three core segments: Exploration & Production (E&P), Refining, Transportation & Marketing (RTM), and Gas & Low-Carbon Energies (GLCE). The E&P unit focuses on discovering and extracting crude oil, natural-gas liquids, and natural gas, primarily to feed domestic refineries. RTM handles crude import/export, refining, logistics, product trading, and holds stakes in petrochemical firms. GLCE manages natural-gas logistics, LNG trading, thermoelectric generation, renewable projects, biodiesel production, and other low-carbon initiatives.
In 2023 Petrobras produced roughly 2.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, posted a net profit of US$9.5 billion, and reduced its net debt by about 30 % year-over-year, bringing the debt-to-EBITDA ratio to a historically low 2.2×. Capital expenditures were directed toward de-risking the “Pre-Sale” offshore fields and expanding the biofuel portfolio, reflecting a strategic shift toward higher-margin assets.
Key economic drivers include Brazil’s recent fiscal consolidation, which improves sovereign credit risk and supports Petrobras’ access to cheaper financing; the global oil price environment shaped by OPEC+ production decisions and the ongoing energy transition; and the volatile BRL/USD exchange rate, which affects both export revenues and import-linked input costs. Additionally, Brazil’s renewable-energy targets and carbon-pricing discussions are accelerating investment in the GLCE segment.
For a data-rich, quantitative deep-dive into Petrobras’ valuation sensitivities and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s analytics platform a useful next step.
PBR-A Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 76,891m |
| Sub-Industry | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
| IPO / Inception | 2003-10-07 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -5.02% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.30 of 5 |
PBR-A Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 11.79% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 59.79% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 281.71% |
| Payout Consistency | 68.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 30.2% |
PBR-A Growth Ratios
| CAGR | 29.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.01 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 2.58 |
| Current Volume | 11046.1k |
| Average Volume | 6362.3k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (13.80b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.18b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -6.20pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -9.20% (prev -3.36%; Δ -5.84pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 (>3.0%) and CFO 35.54b > Net Income 13.80b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (61.07b) to EBITDA (36.47b) ratio: 1.67 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.76 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (6.44b) change vs 12m ago -0.07% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 49.12% (prev 51.73%; Δ -2.61pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 42.53% (prev 52.44%; Δ -9.91pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 8.88 (EBITDA TTM 36.47b / Interest Expense TTM 2.99b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.31
| (A) -0.04 = (Total Current Assets 24.90b - Total Current Liabilities 32.83b) / Total Assets 215.30b |
| (B) 0.04 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.69b / Total Assets 215.30b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 26.55b / Avg Total Assets 202.87b |
| (D) 0.52 = Book Value of Equity 73.16b / Total Liabilities 141.67b |
| Total Rating: 1.31 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 66.73
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt = 0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.00% = 2.00 |
| 3. FCF Margin 21.58% = 5.40 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.93 = 2.08 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.67 = 0.63 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 15.70)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 20.18% = 1.68 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -89.05% = -6.68 |
| 9. EPS Trend -27.70% = -1.38 |
What is the price of PBR-A shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.11%, over one month by +12.21%, over three months by +10.83% and over the past year by +9.41%.
Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of PBR-A is around 18.50 USD . This means that PBR-A is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +51.39% (Margin of Safety).
Is PBR-A a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PBR-A price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.5 | 18.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.5 | 18.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.2 | 65.2% |
PBR-A Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025
P/E Trailing = 5.5833
P/E Forward = 4.4703
P/S = 0.1565
P/B = 1.0245
P/EG = 0.216
Beta = 0.066
Revenue TTM = 86.29b BRL
EBIT TTM = 26.55b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 36.47b BRL
Long Term Debt = 23.32b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.74b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 68.06b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 61.07b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 465.41b BRL (406.84b + Debt 68.06b - CCE 9.50b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.88 (Ebit TTM 26.55b / Interest Expense TTM 2.99b)
FCF Yield = 4.00% (FCF TTM 18.62b / Enterprise Value 465.41b)
FCF Margin = 21.58% (FCF TTM 18.62b / Revenue TTM 86.29b)
Net Margin = 15.99% (Net Income TTM 13.80b / Revenue TTM 86.29b)
Gross Margin = 49.12% ((Revenue TTM 86.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 43.90b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.59% (prev 49.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.16 (Enterprise Value 465.41b / Total Assets 215.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 735.7m / Debt 68.06b)
Taxrate = 25.80% (1.65b / 6.41b)
NOPAT = 19.70b (EBIT 26.55b * (1 - 25.80%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 24.90b / Total Current Liabilities 32.83b)
Debt / Equity = 0.93 (Debt 68.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 73.16b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.67 (Net Debt 61.07b / EBITDA 36.47b)
Debt / FCF = 3.28 (Net Debt 61.07b / FCF TTM 18.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 68.36b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.41% (Net Income 13.80b / Total Assets 215.30b)
RoE = 20.18% (Net Income TTM 13.80b / Total Stockholder Equity 68.36b)
RoCE = 28.96% (EBIT 26.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 68.36b + L.T.Debt 23.32b))
RoIC = 21.18% (NOPAT 19.70b / Invested Capital 93.00b)
WACC = 5.48% (E(406.84b)/V(474.91b) * Re(6.26%) + D(68.06b)/V(474.91b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.88% ; FCFE base≈22.49b ; Y1≈19.35b ; Y5≈15.19b
Fair Price DCF = 101.8 (DCF Value 277.20b / Shares Outstanding 2.72b; 5y FCF grow -17.02% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -27.70 | EPS CAGR: -9.85% | SUE: 1.19 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -89.05 | Revenue CAGR: -14.54% | SUE: -0.63 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for PBR-A Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle