(PBR-A) Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refined Products, Fertilizer, Biodiesel
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 15.16% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 57.92% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 281.71% |
| Payout Consistency | 64.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 30.2% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 45.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.62% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.07 |
| Alpha | -11.87 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.88 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.615 |
| Beta | 0.678 |
| Beta Downside | 0.991 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.98% |
| Mean DD | 11.34% |
| Median DD | 12.34% |
Description: PBR-A Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. December 02, 2025
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR-A) is Brazil’s integrated oil-and-gas champion, operating three principal segments: (1) Exploration & Production, which discovers and extracts crude oil, natural-gas liquids and gas for domestic refineries; (2) Refining, Transportation & Marketing, covering crude processing, logistics, product trading, fertilizer output and stakes in petrochemicals; and (3) Gas & Low-Carbon Energies, handling natural-gas and electricity logistics, LNG trade, thermoelectric generation, renewable projects, biodiesel and other low-carbon initiatives.
Key recent metrics (as of Q4 2024) include a reported 2024 net production of ≈ 2.9 million boe/d (up 4 % YoY), net debt of ≈ US$ 70 billion (≈ 2.5× EBITDA), and a 2024 capital-expenditure plan of US$ 15 billion focused on deep-water offshore fields and decarbonisation assets. The company’s upstream margin (RVP) has been pressured by lower Brent prices but partially offset by a weaker Brazilian real, which improves export-related cash flows.
Strategic drivers shaping Petrobras’ outlook are: (i) Brazil’s fiscal reforms and the government’s “petro-reform” agenda, which aim to reduce state-level subsidies and increase private-sector participation; (ii) OPEC+ production cuts that have kept global oil prices above US$ 80 /barrel, supporting revenue despite domestic demand softness; and (iii) the accelerating shift toward low-carbon energy in Brazil, where the government’s 10-year renewable-energy target is prompting Petrobras to expand its bio-fuel and offshore wind pipelines.
For a data-driven deep-dive into Petrobras’ valuation sensitivities and scenario analysis, you may find the free tools on ValueRay useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (13.96b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.18b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -6.34pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -7.18% (prev -2.17%; Δ -5.01pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 34.09b > Net Income 13.96b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (61.75b) to EBITDA (37.92b) ratio: 1.63 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.82 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (6.44b) change vs 12m ago -0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 48.15% (prev 51.28%; Δ -3.14pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 40.59% (prev 49.38%; Δ -8.79pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.84 (EBITDA TTM 37.92b / Interest Expense TTM 3.43b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.42
| (A) -0.03 = (Total Current Assets 28.08b - Total Current Liabilities 34.29b) / Total Assets 227.89b |
| (B) 0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 13.20b / Total Assets 227.89b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 26.87b / Avg Total Assets 212.86b |
| (D) 0.54 = Book Value of Equity 79.52b / Total Liabilities 147.99b |
| Total Rating: 1.42 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 66.74
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.40% |
| 3. FCF Margin 19.36% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.89 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.63 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 13.11)% |
| 7. RoE 19.88% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -73.80% |
| 9. EPS Trend -35.31% |
What is the price of PBR-A shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.99%, over one month by +5.71%, over three months by +3.14% and over the past year by +3.39%.
Is PBR-A a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PBR-A price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.6 | 22.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.6 | 22.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.8 | 75.7% |
PBR-A Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 5.5694
P/E Forward = 4.6168
P/S = 0.1644
P/B = 0.9749
P/EG = 0.223
Beta = 0.066
Revenue TTM = 86.40b BRL
EBIT TTM = 26.87b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 37.92b BRL
Long Term Debt = 25.64b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.07b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 70.71b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 61.75b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 491.96b BRL (432.91b + Debt 70.71b - CCE 11.66b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.84 (Ebit TTM 26.87b / Interest Expense TTM 3.43b)
FCF Yield = 3.40% (FCF TTM 16.73b / Enterprise Value 491.96b)
FCF Margin = 19.36% (FCF TTM 16.73b / Revenue TTM 86.40b)
Net Margin = 16.15% (Net Income TTM 13.96b / Revenue TTM 86.40b)
Gross Margin = 48.15% ((Revenue TTM 86.40b - Cost of Revenue TTM 44.80b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.78% (prev 47.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.16 (Enterprise Value 491.96b / Total Assets 227.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.52% (Interest Expense 1.08b / Debt 70.71b)
Taxrate = 26.92% (2.23b / 8.28b)
NOPAT = 19.63b (EBIT 26.87b * (1 - 26.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.82 (Total Current Assets 28.08b / Total Current Liabilities 34.29b)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 70.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 79.52b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.63 (Net Debt 61.75b / EBITDA 37.92b)
Debt / FCF = 3.69 (Net Debt 61.75b / FCF TTM 16.73b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 70.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.12% (Net Income 13.96b / Total Assets 227.89b)
RoE = 19.88% (Net Income TTM 13.96b / Total Stockholder Equity 70.18b)
RoCE = 28.04% (EBIT 26.87b / Capital Employed (Equity 70.18b + L.T.Debt 25.64b))
RoIC = 20.58% (NOPAT 19.63b / Invested Capital 95.41b)
WACC = 7.47% (E(432.91b)/V(503.62b) * Re(8.51%) + D(70.71b)/V(503.62b) * Rd(1.52%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.52% ; FCFE base≈20.86b ; Y1≈17.43b ; Y5≈12.91b
Fair Price DCF = 80.10 (DCF Value 218.14b / Shares Outstanding 2.72b; 5y FCF grow -19.88% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -35.31 | EPS CAGR: 10.34% | SUE: 1.19 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -73.80 | Revenue CAGR: -0.62% | SUE: -0.70 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.55 | Chg30d=-0.083 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.47 | Chg30d=+0.021 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-17.7% | Growth Revenue=-0.7%
Additional Sources for PBR-A Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle