(PBR-A) Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refined Products, Fertilizer, Biodiesel
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 47.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.46% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.29 |
| Alpha | -0.51 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.583 |
| Beta | 0.678 |
| Beta Downside | 0.978 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.98% |
| Mean DD | 11.36% |
| Median DD | 12.22% |
Description: PBR-A Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. September 26, 2025
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras (NYSE:PBR-A) is Brazil’s integrated oil and gas company, operating across three core segments: Exploration & Production (E&P), Refining, Transportation & Marketing (RTM), and Gas & Low-Carbon Energies (GLCE). The E&P unit focuses on discovering and extracting crude oil, natural-gas liquids, and natural gas, primarily to feed domestic refineries. RTM handles crude import/export, refining, logistics, product trading, and holds stakes in petrochemical firms. GLCE manages natural-gas logistics, LNG trading, thermoelectric generation, renewable projects, biodiesel production, and other low-carbon initiatives.
In 2023 Petrobras produced roughly 2.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, posted a net profit of US$9.5 billion, and reduced its net debt by about 30 % year-over-year, bringing the debt-to-EBITDA ratio to a historically low 2.2×. Capital expenditures were directed toward de-risking the “Pre-Sale” offshore fields and expanding the biofuel portfolio, reflecting a strategic shift toward higher-margin assets.
Key economic drivers include Brazil’s recent fiscal consolidation, which improves sovereign credit risk and supports Petrobras’ access to cheaper financing; the global oil price environment shaped by OPEC+ production decisions and the ongoing energy transition; and the volatile BRL/USD exchange rate, which affects both export revenues and import-linked input costs. Additionally, Brazil’s renewable-energy targets and carbon-pricing discussions are accelerating investment in the GLCE segment.
For a data-rich, quantitative deep-dive into Petrobras’ valuation sensitivities and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s analytics platform a useful next step.
PBR-A Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 82,146m |
| Sub-Industry | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
| IPO / Inception | 2003-10-07 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -8.13% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.30 of 5 |
PBR-A Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11.67% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 53.57% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 281.71% |
| Payout Consistency | 68.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 30.2% |
PBR-A Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 31.26% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.08 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 2.75 |
| Current Volume | 5600.3k |
| Average Volume | 7260.7k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (13.96b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.18b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -6.20pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -7.18% (prev -2.17%; Δ -5.01pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 34.09b > Net Income 13.96b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (61.75b) to EBITDA (37.92b) ratio: 1.63 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.82 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (6.44b) change vs 12m ago -0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 48.15% (prev 51.28%; Δ -3.14pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 40.59% (prev 49.38%; Δ -8.79pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.84 (EBITDA TTM 37.92b / Interest Expense TTM 3.43b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.42
| (A) -0.03 = (Total Current Assets 28.08b - Total Current Liabilities 34.29b) / Total Assets 227.89b |
| (B) 0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 13.20b / Total Assets 227.89b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 26.87b / Avg Total Assets 212.86b |
| (D) 0.54 = Book Value of Equity 79.52b / Total Liabilities 147.99b |
| Total Rating: 1.42 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 66.78
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt = 0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.37% = 1.68 |
| 3. FCF Margin 19.36% = 4.84 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.89 = 2.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.63 = 0.72 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 13.09)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 19.88% = 1.66 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -78.09% = -5.86 |
| 9. EPS Trend -27.70% = -1.38 |
What is the price of PBR-A shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.06%, over one month by +12.58%, over three months by +12.91% and over the past year by +5.25%.
Is PBR-A a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PBR-A price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.4 | 16.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.4 | 16.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.6 | 66.4% |
PBR-A Fundamental Data Overview November 16, 2025
P/E Trailing = 5.7454
P/E Forward = 4.771
P/S = 0.1672
P/B = 1.0057
P/EG = 0.2305
Beta = 0.066
Revenue TTM = 86.40b BRL
EBIT TTM = 26.87b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 37.92b BRL
Long Term Debt = 25.64b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.07b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 70.71b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 61.75b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 496.68b BRL (437.63b + Debt 70.71b - CCE 11.66b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.84 (Ebit TTM 26.87b / Interest Expense TTM 3.43b)
FCF Yield = 3.37% (FCF TTM 16.73b / Enterprise Value 496.68b)
FCF Margin = 19.36% (FCF TTM 16.73b / Revenue TTM 86.40b)
Net Margin = 16.15% (Net Income TTM 13.96b / Revenue TTM 86.40b)
Gross Margin = 48.15% ((Revenue TTM 86.40b - Cost of Revenue TTM 44.80b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.78% (prev 47.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.18 (Enterprise Value 496.68b / Total Assets 227.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.52% (Interest Expense 1.08b / Debt 70.71b)
Taxrate = 26.92% (2.23b / 8.28b)
NOPAT = 19.63b (EBIT 26.87b * (1 - 26.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.82 (Total Current Assets 28.08b / Total Current Liabilities 34.29b)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 70.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 79.52b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.63 (Net Debt 61.75b / EBITDA 37.92b)
Debt / FCF = 3.69 (Net Debt 61.75b / FCF TTM 16.73b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 70.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.12% (Net Income 13.96b / Total Assets 227.89b)
RoE = 19.88% (Net Income TTM 13.96b / Total Stockholder Equity 70.18b)
RoCE = 28.04% (EBIT 26.87b / Capital Employed (Equity 70.18b + L.T.Debt 25.64b))
RoIC = 20.58% (NOPAT 19.63b / Invested Capital 95.41b)
WACC = 7.49% (E(437.63b)/V(508.34b) * Re(8.52%) + D(70.71b)/V(508.34b) * Rd(1.52%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.56%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.36% ; FCFE base≈20.75b ; Y1≈17.22b ; Y5≈12.58b
Fair Price DCF = 78.09 (DCF Value 212.66b / Shares Outstanding 2.72b; 5y FCF grow -20.52% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -27.70 | EPS CAGR: -9.85% | SUE: 1.19 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -78.09 | Revenue CAGR: -8.72% | SUE: -0.70 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for PBR-A Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle