PD Stock Analysis: Pagerduty | NYSE
Software - Application | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 968m USD | 12M Return: -18.3% | US69553P1003 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 13.6M
EPS Trend: 84.7%
Qual. Beats: 10
Rev. Trend: 98.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 7.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PagerDuty, Inc. (NYSE: PD) operates a cloud-based digital operations management platform that collects data and digital signals from software-enabled systems and devices, using artificial intelligence and machine learning to correlate events, predict issues, and automate incident remediation. Its platform includes Incident Management, AIOps, automation workflows, customer service operations, and generative AI capabilities, serving customers across software and technology, telecommunications, retail, travel and hospitality, media and entertainment, and financial services. Founded in 2009 and headquartered in San Francisco, the company went public in April 2019.
As a small-cap stock in the Application Software sub-industry, PagerDuty operates a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model typical of the sector, generating recurring subscription revenue from enterprises that rely on its platform to minimize downtime and coordinate real-time responses across IT, DevOps, and customer service teams. Its placement within Information Technology reflects the broader shift toward digital transformation, where reliable system uptime and automated incident response have become critical operational priorities for businesses.
- AIOps platform adoption drives enterprise customer growth
- Operating margins expand as cloud infrastructure costs scale
- Competition from ServiceNow and Datadog pressures market share
| Net Income: 185.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.31 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 20.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 55.10% < 20% (prev 71.46%; Δ -16.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 128.5m > Net Income 185.8m |
| Net Debt (-14.8m) to EBITDA (56.0m): -0.26 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.95 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (79.5m) vs 12m ago -13.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 85.02% > 18% (prev 83.30%; Δ 1.71% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.99% > 50% (prev 51.37%; Δ 1.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 43.8m / Interest Expense TTM 6.16m) |
| A: 0.29 (Total Current Assets 559.0m - Total Current Liabilities 287.0m) / Total Assets 936.6m |
| B: -0.44 (Retained Earnings -416.5m / Total Assets 936.6m) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 43.8m / Avg Total Assets 931.7m) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 216.5m / Total Liabilities 708.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.09 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 76.0m/79.7m, Revenue 493.7m/476.1m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 83.30% / 85.02%) |
| AQI: 1.62 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 493.7m / 476.1m) |
| TATA: 0.06 (NI 185.8m - CFO 128.5m) / TA 936.6m) |
| Beneish M = -2.71 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.83 with a total of 3,675,196 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.26%, over one month by +34.14%, over three months by +85.89% and over the past year by -18.26%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.10 (which is 5.3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Pagerduty has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.54. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PD.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 10.6 | -23.1% |
P/E Trailing = 6.1014
P/E Forward = 9.4251
P/S = 1.9042
P/B = 4.3631
Revenue TTM = 493.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 43.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 56.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 396.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.25m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 429.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 16.4m
Net Debt = -14.8m USD (calculated: Debt 429.2m - CCE 444.0m)
Enterprise Value = 953.3m USD (968.1m + Debt 429.2m - CCE 444.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.11 (Ebit TTM 43.8m / Interest Expense TTM 6.16m)
EV/FCF = 3.29x (Enterprise Value 953.3m / FCF TTM 289.4m)
FCF Yield = 30.35% (FCF TTM 289.4m / Enterprise Value 953.3m)
FCF Margin = 58.61% (FCF TTM 289.4m / Revenue TTM 493.7m)
Net Margin = 37.64% (Net Income TTM 185.8m / Revenue TTM 493.7m)
Gross Margin = 85.02% ((Revenue TTM 493.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 74.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.28% (prev 85.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 953.3m / Total Assets 936.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.44% (Interest Expense 6.16m / Debt 429.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 34.6m (EBIT 43.8m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.92 (Total Current Assets 559.0m / Total Current Liabilities 291.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.98 (Debt 429.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 216.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.26 (Net Debt -14.8m / EBITDA 56.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.05 (Net Debt -14.8m / FCF TTM 289.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 242.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.94% (Net Income 185.8m / Total Assets 936.6m)
RoE = 76.52% (Net Income TTM 185.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 242.8m)
RoCE = 6.86% (EBIT 43.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 242.8m + L.T.Debt 396.3m))
RoIC = 5.49% (NOPAT 34.6m / Invested Capital 630.1m)
WACC = 7.19% (E(968.1m)/V(1.40b) * Re(9.87%) + D(429.2m)/V(1.40b) * Rd(1.44%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -54.63 | Cagr: -6.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈213.0m ; Y1≈244.1m ; Y5≈359.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 70.73 (EV 5.41b - Net Debt -14.8m = Equity 5.42b / Shares 76.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 84.68 | EPS CAGR: 17.76% | SUE: 1.97 | # QB: 10
Revenue Correlation: 98.38 | Revenue CAGR: 7.49% | SUE: 1.32 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-44% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=1.32 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+75% | GrowthEPS=+13.4% | GrowthRev=+0.1%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=1.41 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+55% | GrowthEPS=+6.8% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +42% (up=17, down=6)