PFSI Stock Analysis: PennyMac Finl Svcs | NYSE
Mortgage Finance | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.202m USD | 12M Return: -11.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 44.7M
EPS Trend: 88.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 82.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: PFSI) is a U.S.-based mortgage banking and investment management company headquartered in Westlake Village, California. Founded in 2008 and listed on the NYSE since its 2013 IPO, the company operates in the Financials sector within the GICS Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sub-industry.
The business is organized into two segments. The Production segment originates, acquires, and sells residential mortgage loans-including conventional and government-insured or guaranteed products such as FHA and VA loans-through correspondent production, consumer direct lending, and broker direct lending channels. The Servicing segment handles loan administration, payment collection and remittance, escrow management for taxes and insurance, delinquent borrower counseling, and loss mitigation activities including loan modifications, forbearance programs, and foreclosure supervision.
As a mid-cap mortgage finance company, PennyMacs earnings are highly sensitive to U.S. interest rate movements and housing market conditions, as origination volumes typically decline when rates rise while servicing portfolio values often benefit in those environments. The dual-segment model allows the company to generate revenue across both the upfront loan production cycle and the long-term servicing of mortgages on its balance sheet or for third-party investors.
- Mortgage origination volumes decline as rates remain elevated
- MSR portfolio valuation swings with interest rate volatility
- Gain on sale margins compress on competitive pricing pressure
| Net Income: 507.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.82 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -284.2% < 20% (prev -302.0%; Δ 17.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.12 > 3% & CFO -3.70b > Net Income 507.1m |
| Net Debt (16.6b) to EBITDA (1.07b): 15.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (53.9m) vs 12m ago 0.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.49% > 18% (prev 70.99%; Δ -0.50% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.69% > 50% (prev 11.17%; Δ 1.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.05 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.00b / Interest Expense TTM 960.6m) |
| A: -0.32 (Total Current Assets 816.6m - Total Current Liabilities 10.9b) / Total Assets 31.9b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 4.28b / Total Assets 31.9b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.00b / Avg Total Assets 27.9b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 4.33b / Total Liabilities 27.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.22 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 162.9m/158.8m, Revenue 3.54b/2.67b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 70.99% / 70.49%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.97) |
| SGI: 1.33 (Revenue 3.54b / 2.67b) |
| TATA: 0.13 (NI 507.1m - CFO -3.70b) / TA 31.9b) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 86.82 with a total of 403,276 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.96%, over one month by +3.85%, over three months by -5.02% and over the past year by -11.71%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 82.00 (which is 5.6% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).
PennyMac Finl Svcs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PFSI.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 103 | 18.6% |
P/E Trailing = 8.6177
P/E Forward = 5.4259
P/S = 1.2658
P/B = 1.0019
P/EG = 4.67
Revenue TTM = 3.54b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.00b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.07b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10.9b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 70.2m
Net Debt = 16.6b USD (calculated: Debt 17.3b - CCE 653.7m)
Enterprise Value = 20.8b USD (4.20b + Debt 17.3b - CCE 653.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.05 (Ebit TTM 1.00b / Interest Expense TTM 960.6m)
EV/FCF = -5.58x (Enterprise Value 20.8b / FCF TTM -3.73b)
FCF Yield = -17.94% (FCF TTM -3.73b / Enterprise Value 20.8b)
FCF Margin = -105.4% (FCF TTM -3.73b / Revenue TTM 3.54b)
Net Margin = 14.31% (Net Income TTM 507.1m / Revenue TTM 3.54b)
Gross Margin = 70.49% ((Revenue TTM 3.54b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.05b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 90.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 20.8b / Total Assets 31.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.56% (Interest Expense 960.6m / Debt 17.3b)
Taxrate = 8.12% (44.8m / 551.9m)
NOPAT = 922.5m (EBIT 1.00b * (1 - 8.12%))
Current Ratio = 0.08 (Total Current Assets 816.6m / Total Current Liabilities 10.9b)
Debt / Equity = 3.99 (Debt 17.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.33b)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.48 (Net Debt 16.6b / EBITDA 1.07b)
Debt / FCF = -4.45 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 16.6b / FCF TTM -3.73b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.82% (Net Income 507.1m / Total Assets 31.9b)
RoE = 12.02% (Net Income TTM 507.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.22b)
RoCE = 5.08% (EBIT 1.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.22b + L.T.Debt 15.5b))
RoIC = 2.90% (NOPAT 922.5m / Invested Capital 31.8b)
WACC = 5.89% (E(4.20b)/V(21.5b) * Re(9.09%) + D(17.3b)/V(21.5b) * Rd(5.56%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 9.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 71.23 | Cagr: 3.37%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -3.73b)
EPS Correlation: 88.21 | EPS CAGR: 39.64% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.78 | Revenue CAGR: 22.96% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.21 | Chg30d=-4.30% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.61 | Chg30d=-8.17% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.93 | Chg30d=-5.37% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-20.1% | GrowthRev=+17.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=13.37 | Chg30d=-6.24% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+34.7% | GrowthRev=+20.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=1, down=6)