Overview Dividends

(PGR) Progressive - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US7433151039

Auto, Motorcycle, Property, Commercial, Liability, Workers Compensation

Property & Casualty Insurance
Market Cap in USD: 124,345m

IPO / Inception: 1986-07-09
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -17.2%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -36.96%
EPS Trend: 46.5%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 17.02%
Rev. Trend: 98.6%

Last SUE: 0.98
Qual. Beats: 2

Dividends

Dividend Yield	1.08%
Yield on Cost 5y	2.78%
Yield CAGR 5y	-6.46%
Payout Consistency	77.6%
Payout Ratio	78.7%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	23.9%
Value at Risk 5%th	36.4%
Relative Tail Risk	-7.38%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.21
Alpha	-11.73
CAGR/Max DD	0.67

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.428
Beta	0.275
Beta Downside	0.365

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	29.97%
Mean DD	7.00%
Median DD	4.35%

Description: PGR Progressive December 02, 2025

Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) is a U.S.-based property-and-casualty insurer that underwrites personal auto, specialty lines (motorcycles, RVs, watercraft), homeowners and renters policies, as well as a broad suite of commercial coverages-including auto-related liability and physical-damage for trucks, vans and specialty vehicles, general liability, commercial property for small businesses, and workers’ compensation for the transportation sector.

Beyond core underwriting, the company offers specialty property-casualty products, personal-property reinsurance, and generates investment income from its asset portfolio. Distribution is multi-channel, leveraging independent agents, a growing direct-to-consumer online platform, and phone sales.

Key recent metrics (2023): net written premiums of $48.3 bn, a combined ratio of 93.2 % (indicating underwriting profitability), and investment income of $1.2 bn, which together delivered a 13.6 % return on equity. Progressive’s “Snapshot” usage-based insurance program now covers over 10 million vehicles, driving a 7 % lift in renewal rates and higher price elasticity.

Economic and sector drivers to watch include: (1) vehicle-fleet electrification and telematics adoption, which can reshape risk profiles and pricing; (2) inflationary pressure on repair costs and labor, pressuring loss ratios; and (3) the investment environment, where higher interest rates boost investment yields but can increase policyholder surrender rates.

For a deeper quantitative dive, see the ValueRay dashboard for Progressive’s latest valuation metrics.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0

Net Income (10.71b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.11b TTM)

FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.44pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 36.63% (prev -24.16%; Δ 60.79pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 17.39b > Net Income 10.71b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (6.72b) to EBITDA (14.09b) ratio: 0.48 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

error: Current Ratio cannot be calculated (needs Total Current Assets and Liabilities)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (588.2m) change vs 12m ago 0.10% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 26.30% (prev 73.09%; Δ -46.79pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 75.13% (prev 68.41%; Δ 6.72pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 49.44 (EBITDA TTM 14.09b / Interest Expense TTM 278.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.78

(A) 0.26 = (Total Current Assets 31.20b - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 121.53b

(B) 0.27 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 32.44b / Total Assets 121.53b

(D) 0.39 = Book Value of Equity 33.21b / Total Liabilities 86.09b

Total Rating: 3.78 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 89.53

1. Piotroski 5.0pt

2. FCF Yield 14.10%

3. FCF Margin 20.02%

4. Debt/Equity 0.19

5. Debt/Ebitda 0.48

6. ROIC - WACC (= 22.20)%

7. RoE 34.96%

8. Rev. Trend 98.64%

9. EPS Trend 46.48%

What is the price of PGR shares?

As of January 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 212.12 with a total of 3,321,011 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.28%, over one month by -0.66%, over three months by -6.20% and over the past year by -3.86%.

Is PGR a buy, sell or hold?

Progressive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefor, it is recommend to hold PGR.

Strong Buy: 5
Buy: 5
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the PGR price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	255.1	20.3%
Analysts Target Price	255.1	20.3%
ValueRay Target Price	245.8	15.9%

PGR Fundamental Data Overview January 03, 2026

Market Cap USD = 124.34b (124.34b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.6422
P/E Forward = 14.2248
P/S = 1.46
P/B = 3.7661
P/EG = 4.9078
Beta = 0.365
Revenue TTM = 85.18b USD
EBIT TTM = 13.79b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.09b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.90b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 6.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.72b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 120.88b USD (124.34b + Debt 6.90b - CCE 10.36b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 49.44 (Ebit TTM 13.79b / Interest Expense TTM 278.9m)
FCF Yield = 14.10% (FCF TTM 17.05b / Enterprise Value 120.88b)
FCF Margin = 20.02% (FCF TTM 17.05b / Revenue TTM 85.18b)
Net Margin = 12.58% (Net Income TTM 10.71b / Revenue TTM 85.18b)
Gross Margin = 26.30% ((Revenue TTM 85.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 62.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.76% (prev 31.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 120.88b / Total Assets 121.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.02% (Interest Expense 70.0m / Debt 6.90b)
Taxrate = 21.31% (708.0m / 3.32b)
NOPAT = 10.85b (EBIT 13.79b * (1 - 21.31%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 31.20b / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 6.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 35.45b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.48 (Net Debt 6.72b / EBITDA 14.09b)
Debt / FCF = 0.39 (Net Debt 6.72b / FCF TTM 17.05b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 30.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.82% (Net Income 10.71b / Total Assets 121.53b)
RoE = 34.96% (Net Income TTM 10.71b / Total Stockholder Equity 30.65b)
RoCE = 36.72% (EBIT 13.79b / Capital Employed (Equity 30.65b + L.T.Debt 6.90b))
RoIC = 28.90% (NOPAT 10.85b / Invested Capital 37.54b)
WACC = 6.70% (E(124.34b)/V(131.24b) * Re(7.03%) + D(6.90b)/V(131.24b) * Rd(1.02%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈15.95b ; Y1≈19.67b ; Y5≈33.56b
Fair Price DCF = 973.8 (DCF Value 570.84b / Shares Outstanding 586.2m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 46.48 | EPS CAGR: -36.96% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.64 | Revenue CAGR: 17.02% | SUE: 0.98 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.42 | Chg30d=-0.056 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=20
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.11 | Chg30d=-0.194 | Revisions Net=-8 | Growth EPS=-10.1% | Growth Revenue=+7.8%

Additional Sources for PGR Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle