(PGR) Progressive - Ratings and Ratios
Auto, Motorcycle, Property, Commercial, Liability, Workers Compensation
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 8.47% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.57% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -6.46% |
| Payout Consistency | 77.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 78.7% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 35.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.32% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.39 |
| Alpha | -15.42 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.63 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.548 |
| Beta | 0.279 |
| Beta Downside | 0.305 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 29.97% |
| Mean DD | 7.40% |
| Median DD | 4.60% |
Description: PGR Progressive December 02, 2025
Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) is a U.S.-based property-and-casualty insurer that underwrites personal auto, specialty lines (motorcycles, RVs, watercraft), homeowners and renters policies, as well as a broad suite of commercial coverages-including auto-related liability and physical-damage for trucks, vans and specialty vehicles, general liability, commercial property for small businesses, and workers’ compensation for the transportation sector.
Beyond core underwriting, the company offers specialty property-casualty products, personal-property reinsurance, and generates investment income from its asset portfolio. Distribution is multi-channel, leveraging independent agents, a growing direct-to-consumer online platform, and phone sales.
Key recent metrics (2023): net written premiums of $48.3 bn, a combined ratio of 93.2 % (indicating underwriting profitability), and investment income of $1.2 bn, which together delivered a 13.6 % return on equity. Progressive’s “Snapshot” usage-based insurance program now covers over 10 million vehicles, driving a 7 % lift in renewal rates and higher price elasticity.
Economic and sector drivers to watch include: (1) vehicle-fleet electrification and telematics adoption, which can reshape risk profiles and pricing; (2) inflationary pressure on repair costs and labor, pressuring loss ratios; and (3) the investment environment, where higher interest rates boost investment yields but can increase policyholder surrender rates.
For a deeper quantitative dive, see the ValueRay dashboard for Progressive’s latest valuation metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 10.71b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.63% < 20% (prev -24.16%; Δ 60.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 17.39b > Net Income 10.71b |
| Net Debt (6.72b) to EBITDA (14.09b): 0.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities) |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (588.2m) vs 12m ago 0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.30% > 18% (prev 0.73%; Δ 2557 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 75.13% > 50% (prev 68.41%; Δ 6.72% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 49.44 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 14.09b / Interest Expense TTM 278.9m) |
Altman Z'' 3.78
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 31.20b - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 121.53b |
| B: 0.27 (Retained Earnings 32.44b / Total Assets 121.53b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 13.79b / Avg Total Assets 113.37b) |
| D: 0.39 (Book Value of Equity 33.21b / Total Liabilities 86.09b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.78 = AA |
Beneish M -1.52
| DSRI: 0.87 (Receivables 20.63b/20.02b, Revenue 85.18b/71.97b) |
| GMI: 2.78 (GM 26.30% / 73.09%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.74 / AQ_t-1 0.84) |
| SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 85.18b / 71.97b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 10.71b - CFO 17.39b) / TA 121.53b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.52 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 90.53
| 1. Piotroski: 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 14.53% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 20.02% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 0.19 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: 0.48 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: 22.29% |
| 7. RoE: 34.96% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 98.64% |
| 9. EPS Trend: 46.48% |
What is the price of PGR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.03%, over one month by -3.53%, over three months by +1.17% and over the past year by -11.15%.
Is PGR a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the PGR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 249 | 20.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 249 | 20.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 233 | 13.1% |
PGR Fundamental Data Overview January 26, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.87
P/S = 1.4181
P/B = 3.4074
P/EG = 3.9021
Revenue TTM = 85.18b USD
EBIT TTM = 13.79b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.09b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.90b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 6.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.72b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 117.31b USD (120.77b + Debt 6.90b - CCE 10.36b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 49.44 (Ebit TTM 13.79b / Interest Expense TTM 278.9m)
EV/FCF = 6.88x (Enterprise Value 117.31b / FCF TTM 17.05b)
FCF Yield = 14.53% (FCF TTM 17.05b / Enterprise Value 117.31b)
FCF Margin = 20.02% (FCF TTM 17.05b / Revenue TTM 85.18b)
Net Margin = 12.58% (Net Income TTM 10.71b / Revenue TTM 85.18b)
Gross Margin = 26.30% ((Revenue TTM 85.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 62.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.76% (prev 31.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 117.31b / Total Assets 121.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.02% (Interest Expense 70.0m / Debt 6.90b)
Taxrate = 21.31% (708.0m / 3.32b)
NOPAT = 10.85b (EBIT 13.79b * (1 - 21.31%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 31.20b / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 6.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 35.45b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.48 (Net Debt 6.72b / EBITDA 14.09b)
Debt / FCF = 0.39 (Net Debt 6.72b / FCF TTM 17.05b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 30.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.45% (Net Income 10.71b / Total Assets 121.53b)
RoE = 34.96% (Net Income TTM 10.71b / Total Stockholder Equity 30.65b)
RoCE = 36.72% (EBIT 13.79b / Capital Employed (Equity 30.65b + L.T.Debt 6.90b))
RoIC = 28.90% (NOPAT 10.85b / Invested Capital 37.54b)
WACC = 6.61% (E(120.77b)/V(127.67b) * Re(6.94%) + D(6.90b)/V(127.67b) * Rd(1.02%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.94% ; FCFF base≈15.95b ; Y1≈19.67b ; Y5≈33.50b
Fair Price DCF = 1329 (EV 785.52b - Net Debt 6.72b = Equity 778.80b / Shares 586.2m; r=6.61% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 46.48 | EPS CAGR: -36.96% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.64 | Revenue CAGR: 17.02% | SUE: 0.98 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.39 | Chg30d=-0.016 | Revisions Net=-7 | Analysts=19
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.01 | Chg30d=-0.098 | Revisions Net=-14 | Growth EPS=-11.2% | Growth Revenue=+7.9%
Additional Sources for PGR Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle