(PGR) Progressive - Overview

Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 117.111m USD | Total Return: -25.8% in 12m

Auto Insurance, Home Insurance, Business Insurance, Specialty Lines
Total Rating 44
Safety 72
Buy Signal -0.67
Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Rotation: -7.9
Market Cap: 117B
Avg Turnover: 572M USD
ATR: 2.27%
Peers RS (IBD): 14.1
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility24.6%
Rel. Tail Risk-2.19%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Alpha-33.09
Character TTM
Beta0.241
Beta Downside-0.022
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD29.97%
CAGR/Max DD0.54
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of PGR over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 1.72, "2021-06": 0.72, "2021-09": 0.14, "2021-12": 0.9, "2022-03": 1.1, "2022-06": 1.07, "2022-09": 0.49, "2022-12": 1.52, "2023-03": 0.63, "2023-06": 0.79, "2023-09": 2.09, "2023-12": 2.97, "2024-03": 3.75, "2024-06": 2.65, "2024-09": 3.59, "2024-12": 4.0802, "2025-03": 4.65, "2025-06": 4.88, "2025-09": 4.0511, "2025-12": 4.6684, "2026-03": 0,
EPS CAGR: -34.21%
EPS Trend: 45.5%
Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of PGR over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 11439.6, 2021-06: 11899.2, 2021-09: 11852.6, 2021-12: 12485.1, 2022-03: 11835.8, 2022-06: 11513.3, 2022-09: 12774.4, 2022-12: 13462.9, 2023-03: 14297.7, 2023-06: 15347.4, 2023-09: 15553.4, 2023-12: 16883.8, 2024-03: 17237, 2024-06: 18127, 2024-09: 19719.3, 2024-12: 20267.4, 2025-03: 20402, 2025-06: 21995, 2025-09: 22512, 2025-12: 22738, 2026-03: null,
Rev. CAGR: 19.02%
Rev. Trend: 99.1%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 3

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: PGR Progressive

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a U.S. insurance company. It underwrites personal auto, motorcycle, RV, and watercraft insurance. It also offers personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. Commercial lines include auto-related liability and physical damage for various vehicle types, general liability, commercial property for small businesses, and workers compensation for the transportation industry. Progressive operates in the property & casualty insurance sector, a highly regulated industry. The company also engages in investment activities, common for insurers to generate additional revenue. Distribution channels include independent agencies, online platforms, and direct phone sales, a hybrid model that allows for broad market reach.

Understanding the nuances of these diverse insurance offerings can provide deeper insights into PGRs market position. Further research on platforms like ValueRay can help investors analyze PGRs performance against its peers.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Auto insurance premium growth drives revenue
  • Catastrophe losses impact underwriting profitability
  • Investment portfolio performance affects earnings
  • Regulatory changes influence pricing and product offerings
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 7.0
Net Income: 11.31b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.19 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.86 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 124.6% < 20% (prev -13.41%; Δ 138.0% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 17.55b > Net Income 11.31b
Net Debt (-85.93b) to EBITDA (14.81b): -5.80 < 3
Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities)
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (588.2m) vs 12m ago 0.09% < -2%
Gross Margin: 26.50% > 18% (prev 0.72%; Δ 2.58k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 89.07% > 50% (prev 71.26%; Δ 17.81% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 52.16 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 14.81b / Interest Expense TTM 278.0m)
Altman Z'' 10.00
A: 1.20 (Total Current Assets 109.21b - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 91.06b
B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 27.33b / Total Assets 91.06b)
C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 14.50b / Avg Total Assets 98.40b)
D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 27.91b / Total Liabilities 86.49b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 10.18 = AAA
Beneish M -2.39
DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 16.39b/19.13b, Revenue 87.65b/75.35b)
GMI: 2.72 (GM 26.50% / 71.99%)
AQI: -0.27 (AQ_t -0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.77)
SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 87.65b / 75.35b)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 11.31b - CFO 17.55b) / TA 91.06b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.39 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB
What is the price of PGR shares? As of April 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 194.13 with a total of 3,126,108 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.15%, over one month by -5.34%, over three months by -10.29% and over the past year by -25.79%.
Is PGR a buy, sell or hold? Progressive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefor, it is recommend to hold PGR.
  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 5
  • Hold: 8
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the PGR price?
Analysts Target Price 229.9 18.4%
Progressive (PGR) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 12 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 10.3942
P/E Forward = 15.2207
P/S = 1.2979
P/B = 4.3795
P/EG = 5.2478
Revenue TTM = 87.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.50b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.81b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.90b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = 6.90b USD (corrected: LT Debt 6.90b + ST Debt none)
Net Debt = -85.93b USD (recalculated: Debt 6.90b - CCE 92.83b)
Enterprise Value = 31.18b USD (117.11b + Debt 6.90b - CCE 92.83b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 52.16 (Ebit TTM 14.50b / Interest Expense TTM 278.0m)
EV/FCF = 1.81x (Enterprise Value 31.18b / FCF TTM 17.20b)
FCF Yield = 55.16% (FCF TTM 17.20b / Enterprise Value 31.18b)
FCF Margin = 19.62% (FCF TTM 17.20b / Revenue TTM 87.65b)
Net Margin = 12.90% (Net Income TTM 11.31b / Revenue TTM 87.65b)
Gross Margin = 26.50% ((Revenue TTM 87.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 64.42b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.28% (prev 15.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.34 (Enterprise Value 31.18b / Total Assets 91.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.00% (Interest Expense 69.0m / Debt 6.90b)
Taxrate = 19.85% (731.0m / 3.68b)
NOPAT = 11.62b (EBIT 14.50b * (1 - 19.85%))
 Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 109.21b / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
 Debt / Equity = 1.51 (Debt 6.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.57b)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.80 (Net Debt -85.93b / EBITDA 14.81b)
Debt / FCF = -5.00 (Net Debt -85.93b / FCF TTM 17.20b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 25.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.49% (Net Income 11.31b / Total Assets 91.06b)
RoE = 44.53% (Net Income TTM 11.31b / Total Stockholder Equity 25.39b)
RoCE = 44.91% (EBIT 14.50b / Capital Employed (Equity 25.39b + L.T.Debt 6.90b))
RoIC = 30.01% (NOPAT 11.62b / Invested Capital 38.73b)
WACC = 6.49% (E(117.11b)/V(124.01b) * Re(6.83%) + D(6.90b)/V(124.01b) * Rd(1.00%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.06%
[DCF] Terminal Value 86.68% ; FCFF base≈16.25b ; Y1≈20.05b ; Y5≈34.21b
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.60k (EV 849.19b - Net Debt -85.93b = Equity 935.12b / Shares 585.0m; r=6.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 45.49 | EPS CAGR: -34.21% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.12 | Revenue CAGR: 19.02% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.79 | Chg7d=+0.001 | Chg30d=+0.030 | Revisions Net=-6 | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.26 | Chg7d=+0.052 | Chg30d=+0.139 | Revisions Net=+7 | Growth EPS=-10.9% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.12 | Chg7d=-0.008 | Chg30d=-0.040 | Revisions Net=-6 | Growth EPS=-0.9% | Growth Revenue=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -0.38 (5 Up / 11 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = -1.7% (Discount Rate 7.9% - Earnings Yield 9.6%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +7.1% (Analyst 5.4% - Implied -1.7%)
External Resources
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