(PGR) Progressive - Overview

Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 116.710m USD | Total Return: -24.5% in 12m

Auto Insurance, Property Insurance, Commercial Insurance, Reinsurance
Total Rating 41
Safety 27
Buy Signal -0.17
Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Rotation: +7.9
Market Cap: 117B
Avg Turnover: 494M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility22.6%
VaR 5th Pctl3.83%
VaR vs Median2.95%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-1.35
Rel. Str. IBD18.5
Rel. Str. Peer Group19.3
Character TTM
Beta0.232
Beta Downside0.073
Hurst Exponent0.508
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD29.97%
CAGR/Max DD0.64
CAGR/Mean DD2.25
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of PGR over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 1.72, "2021-06": 0.72, "2021-09": 0.14, "2021-12": 0.9, "2022-03": 1.1, "2022-06": 1.07, "2022-09": 0.49, "2022-12": 1.52, "2023-03": 0.63, "2023-06": 0.79, "2023-09": 2.09, "2023-12": 2.97, "2024-03": 3.75, "2024-06": 2.65, "2024-09": 3.59, "2024-12": 4.0802, "2025-03": 4.65, "2025-06": 4.88, "2025-09": 4.0511, "2025-12": 4.6684, "2026-03": 4.9631,
EPS CAGR: 77.41%
EPS Trend: 92.9%
Last SUE: 1.12
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of PGR over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 11439.6, 2021-06: 11899.2, 2021-09: 11852.6, 2021-12: 12485.1, 2022-03: 11835.8, 2022-06: 11513.3, 2022-09: 12774.4, 2022-12: 13462.9, 2023-03: 14297.7, 2023-06: 15347.4, 2023-09: 15553.4, 2023-12: 16883.8, 2024-03: 17237, 2024-06: 18127, 2024-09: 19719.3, 2024-12: 20267.4, 2025-03: 20402, 2025-06: 21995, 2025-09: 22512, 2025-12: 22738, 2026-03: 22180,
Rev. CAGR: 19.39%
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Last SUE: -0.64
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: PGR Progressive

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a major U.S. property and casualty insurer specializing in personal and commercial vehicle coverage. Its portfolio includes personal auto, specialty vehicle lines-such as motorcycles and watercraft-and residential property insurance. The company also serves the commercial sector by providing liability, physical damage, and workers compensation insurance primarily for the transportation and small business industries.

Progressive operates through a dual distribution model, utilizing a network of independent agents alongside a direct-to-consumer platform via online and telephonic channels. In the property and casualty sector, insurers typically generate revenue through earned premiums and investment income from their float, which consists of premiums collected but not yet paid out in claims. This industry is highly cyclical and sensitive to both loss cost trends and interest rate fluctuations.

You may find further data on these industry trends by exploring ValueRay. Founded in 1937 and headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio, the company maintains a significant market share in the competitive domestic auto insurance landscape.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Direct-to-consumer digital marketing efficiency lowers customer acquisition costs and boosts margins
  • Frequency and severity of auto insurance claims impact underwriting profitability ratios
  • Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase yield on fixed-income investment portfolio
  • Geographic expansion of homeowners insurance segment reduces dependency on core auto lines
  • Regulatory rate filing approvals determine ability to offset inflationary repair cost increases
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 7.5
Net Income: 11.56b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.69 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -69.00% < 20% (prev 123.2%; Δ -192.2% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 16.77b > Net Income 11.56b
Net Debt (8.22b) to EBITDA (15.07b): 0.55 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.25 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (586.9m) vs 12m ago -0.14% < -2%
Gross Margin: 28.44% > 18% (prev 0.70%; Δ 2.77k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 76.56% > 50% (prev 70.48%; Δ 6.08% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 40.27 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 15.07b / Interest Expense TTM 278.0m)
Altman Z'' -1.50
A: -0.50 (Total Current Assets 20.08b - Total Current Liabilities 81.78b) / Total Assets 122.21b
B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 29.61b / Total Assets 122.21b)
C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 11.20b / Avg Total Assets 116.81b)
D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 29.73b / Total Liabilities 82.45b)
Altman-Z'' Score: -1.50 = CCC
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 0.73 (Receivables 17.61b/21.26b, Revenue 89.42b/78.52b)
GMI: 2.48 (GM 28.44% / 70.50%)
AQI: 6.67 (AQ_t 0.83 / AQ_t-1 0.12)
SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 89.42b / 78.52b)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 11.56b - CFO 16.77b) / TA 122.21b)
Beneish M-Score: 1.51 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of PGR shares? As of May 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 202.60 with a total of 2,884,112 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.39%, over one month by -0.58%, over three months by -0.67% and over the past year by -24.46%.
Is PGR a buy, sell or hold? Progressive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefor, it is recommend to hold PGR.
  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 5
  • Hold: 8
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the PGR price?
Analysts Target Price 230.8 13.9%
Progressive (PGR) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 18 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 10.1644
P/E Forward = 11.9048
P/S = 1.3053
P/B = 3.5382
P/EG = 29.7729
Revenue TTM = 89.42b USD
EBIT TTM = 11.20b USD
EBITDA TTM = 15.07b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.39b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = 8.39b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 122.81b USD (116.71b + Debt 8.39b - CCE 2.29b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 40.27 (Ebit TTM 11.20b / Interest Expense TTM 278.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.48x (Enterprise Value 122.81b / FCF TTM 16.42b)
FCF Yield = 13.37% (FCF TTM 16.42b / Enterprise Value 122.81b)
FCF Margin = 18.36% (FCF TTM 16.42b / Revenue TTM 89.42b)
Net Margin = 12.93% (Net Income TTM 11.56b / Revenue TTM 89.42b)
Gross Margin = 28.44% ((Revenue TTM 89.42b - Cost of Revenue TTM 63.99b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.66% (prev 29.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.00 (Enterprise Value 122.81b / Total Assets 122.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.83% (Interest Expense 70.0m / Debt 8.39b)
Taxrate = 20.98% (748.0m / 3.57b)
NOPAT = 8.85b (EBIT 11.20b * (1 - 20.98%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 20.08b / Total Current Liabilities 81.78b)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 8.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 32.04b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.55 (Net Debt 8.22b / EBITDA 15.07b)
Debt / FCF = 0.50 (Net Debt 8.22b / FCF TTM 16.42b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 32.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.90% (Net Income 11.56b / Total Assets 122.21b)
RoE = 35.45% (Net Income TTM 11.56b / Total Stockholder Equity 32.60b)
RoCE = 27.31% (EBIT 11.20b / Capital Employed (Equity 32.60b + L.T.Debt 8.39b))
RoIC = 22.19% (NOPAT 8.85b / Invested Capital 39.87b)
WACC = 6.39% (E(116.71b)/V(125.10b) * Re(6.80%) + D(8.39b)/V(125.10b) * Rd(0.83%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 49.44 | Cagr: -0.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 87.06% ; FCFF base≈16.15b ; Y1≈19.92b ; Y5≈33.98b
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.48k (EV 870.61b - Net Debt 8.22b = Equity 862.39b / Shares 584.3m; r=6.39% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 92.86 | EPS CAGR: 77.41% | SUE: 1.12 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.53 | Revenue CAGR: 19.39% | SUE: -0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.75 | Chg30d=-0.88% | Revisions=+5% | Analysts=21
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.55 | Chg30d=-0.34% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.30 | Chg30d=+0.28% | Revisions=+23% | GrowthEPS=-10.7% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.18 | Chg30d=+0.40% | Revisions=-18% | GrowthEPS=-0.7% | GrowthRev=+8.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +23%