(PGR) Progressive - Ratings and Ratios
Auto, Motorcycle, Property, Commercial, Liability, Workers Compensation
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.59% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -18.84% |
| Payout Consistency | 75.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 23.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 36.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.15% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.58 |
| Alpha | -21.12 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.73 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.437 |
| Beta | 0.299 |
| Beta Downside | 0.417 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 29.97% |
| Mean DD | 6.46% |
| Median DD | 3.96% |
Description: PGR Progressive December 02, 2025
Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) is a U.S.-based property-and-casualty insurer that underwrites personal auto, specialty lines (motorcycles, RVs, watercraft), homeowners and renters policies, as well as a broad suite of commercial coverages-including auto-related liability and physical-damage for trucks, vans and specialty vehicles, general liability, commercial property for small businesses, and workers’ compensation for the transportation sector.
Beyond core underwriting, the company offers specialty property-casualty products, personal-property reinsurance, and generates investment income from its asset portfolio. Distribution is multi-channel, leveraging independent agents, a growing direct-to-consumer online platform, and phone sales.
Key recent metrics (2023): net written premiums of $48.3 bn, a combined ratio of 93.2 % (indicating underwriting profitability), and investment income of $1.2 bn, which together delivered a 13.6 % return on equity. Progressive’s “Snapshot” usage-based insurance program now covers over 10 million vehicles, driving a 7 % lift in renewal rates and higher price elasticity.
Economic and sector drivers to watch include: (1) vehicle-fleet electrification and telematics adoption, which can reshape risk profiles and pricing; (2) inflationary pressure on repair costs and labor, pressuring loss ratios; and (3) the investment environment, where higher interest rates boost investment yields but can increase policyholder surrender rates.
For a deeper quantitative dive, see the ValueRay dashboard for Progressive’s latest valuation metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (10.71b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.11b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.44pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 36.63% (prev -24.16%; Δ 60.79pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 17.39b > Net Income 10.71b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (6.72b) to EBITDA (14.01b) ratio: 0.48 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| error: Current Ratio cannot be calculated (needs Total Current Assets and Liabilities) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (588.2m) change vs 12m ago 0.10% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 26.30% (prev 73.09%; Δ -46.79pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 75.13% (prev 68.41%; Δ 6.72pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 37.27 (EBITDA TTM 14.01b / Interest Expense TTM 278.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.58
| (A) 0.26 = (Total Current Assets 31.20b - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 121.53b |
| (B) 0.27 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 32.44b / Total Assets 121.53b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 10.39b / Avg Total Assets 113.37b |
| (D) 0.39 = Book Value of Equity 33.21b / Total Liabilities 86.09b |
| Total Rating: 3.58 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 91.50
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 13.15% |
| 3. FCF Margin 20.02% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.19 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.48 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 14.98)% |
| 7. RoE 34.96% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 98.68% |
| 9. EPS Trend 85.77% |
What is the price of PGR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.86%, over one month by +11.53%, over three months by -7.88% and over the past year by -11.67%.
Is PGR a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the PGR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 257.2 | 13.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 257.2 | 13.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 250.4 | 10.2% |
PGR Fundamental Data Overview November 24, 2025
P/E Trailing = 12.4539
P/E Forward = 14.1844
P/S = 1.5624
P/B = 3.7533
P/EG = 4.8903
Beta = 0.373
Revenue TTM = 85.18b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.39b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.01b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.90b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 6.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.72b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 129.60b USD (133.06b + Debt 6.90b - CCE 10.36b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 37.27 (Ebit TTM 10.39b / Interest Expense TTM 278.9m)
FCF Yield = 13.15% (FCF TTM 17.05b / Enterprise Value 129.60b)
FCF Margin = 20.02% (FCF TTM 17.05b / Revenue TTM 85.18b)
Net Margin = 12.58% (Net Income TTM 10.71b / Revenue TTM 85.18b)
Gross Margin = 26.30% ((Revenue TTM 85.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 62.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.76% (prev 31.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 129.60b / Total Assets 121.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.02% (Interest Expense 70.0m / Debt 6.90b)
Taxrate = 21.31% (708.0m / 3.32b)
NOPAT = 8.18b (EBIT 10.39b * (1 - 21.31%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 31.20b / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 6.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 35.45b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.48 (Net Debt 6.72b / EBITDA 14.01b)
Debt / FCF = 0.39 (Net Debt 6.72b / FCF TTM 17.05b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 30.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.82% (Net Income 10.71b / Total Assets 121.53b)
RoE = 34.96% (Net Income TTM 10.71b / Total Stockholder Equity 30.65b)
RoCE = 27.69% (EBIT 10.39b / Capital Employed (Equity 30.65b + L.T.Debt 6.90b))
RoIC = 21.79% (NOPAT 8.18b / Invested Capital 37.54b)
WACC = 6.81% (E(133.06b)/V(139.96b) * Re(7.12%) + D(6.90b)/V(139.96b) * Rd(1.02%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈15.95b ; Y1≈19.67b ; Y5≈33.56b
Fair Price DCF = 973.5 (DCF Value 570.84b / Shares Outstanding 586.4m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 85.77 | EPS CAGR: 49.36% | SUE: -1.71 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.68 | Revenue CAGR: 17.02% | SUE: 0.98 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.48 | Chg30d=+0.027 | Revisions Net=-8 | Analysts=19
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.33 | Chg30d=-0.078 | Revisions Net=-13 | Growth EPS=-8.3% | Growth Revenue=+8.5%
Additional Sources for PGR Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle