Overview Dividends

(PGR) Progressive - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US7433151039

Auto, Motorcycle, Rv, Residential, Commercial

PGR EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): 42.83%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): 83.3%

PGR Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 20.56%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 99.4%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	23.9%
Value at Risk 5%th	36.2%

Reward
Sharpe Ratio	-0.60
Alpha Jensen	-21.84

Character
Hurst Exponent	0.527
Beta	0.373

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	29.97%
Mean DD	6.08%

Description: PGR Progressive September 25, 2025

Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) is a U.S.-based property-and-casualty insurer that underwrites a broad mix of personal and commercial lines, including auto, specialty vehicles (motorcycles, RVs, watercraft), homeowners/renters, commercial auto fleets, small-business general liability, commercial property, and workers’ compensation for the transportation sector.

The company distributes its policies primarily through a network of independent insurance agencies, supplemented by direct-to-consumer channels such as its website and call-center, a model that supports scalable growth and data-driven pricing.

Founded in 1937 and headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio, Progressive leverages its proprietary telematics platform - Snapshot - to price risk more accurately, a capability that has helped it maintain a combined ratio around 92% in 2023, well below the industry average of ~95%.

Key performance indicators to watch include its 2023 net written premiums of $48.5 billion (up ~6% YoY), a 10% increase in digital-only sales, and a return on equity of roughly 13%, reflecting strong underwriting discipline and investment income.

Sector drivers that materially affect Progressive’s outlook are auto-loan delinquencies, which can pressure claim frequency, and the broader U.S. economic cycle that influences personal vehicle ownership and commercial freight activity.

For a deeper, data-rich analysis of Progressive’s valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay platform offers tools that can help you quantify these dynamics more precisely.

PGR Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	127,559m
Sub-Industry	Property & Casualty Insurance
IPO / Inception	1986-07-09
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-25.5%
Analyst Rating	3.68 of 5

PGR Dividends

Dividend Yield	0.59%
Yield on Cost 5y	1.50%
Yield CAGR 5y	-18.84%
Payout Consistency	79.5%
Payout Ratio	27.7%

PGR Growth Ratios

CAGR	22.23%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.74
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	3.66
Current Volume	2783.2k
Average Volume	3808.4k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0

Net Income (10.71b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.11b TTM)

FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.08pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 118.1% (prev -24.16%; Δ 142.3pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 16.80b > Net Income 10.71b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (-185.0m) to EBITDA (14.01b) ratio: -0.01 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 17.95 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (588.2m) change vs 12m ago 0.10% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 26.30% (prev 73.09%; Δ -46.79pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 75.13% (prev 68.41%; Δ 6.72pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 37.27 (EBITDA TTM 14.01b / Interest Expense TTM 278.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 7.32

(A) 0.83 = (Total Current Assets 106.54b - Total Current Liabilities 5.94b) / Total Assets 121.53b

(B) 0.27 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 32.44b / Total Assets 121.53b

(D) 0.39 = Book Value of Equity 33.21b / Total Liabilities 86.09b

Total Rating: 7.32 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 91.38

1. Piotroski 6.0pt = 1.0

2. FCF Yield 37.08% = 5.0

3. FCF Margin 19.34% = 4.83

4. Debt/Equity 1.54 = 1.42

5. Debt/Ebitda -0.01 = 2.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= 15.71)% = 12.50

7. RoE 46.77% = 2.50

8. Rev. Trend 99.38% = 7.45

9. EPS Trend 83.33% = 4.17

What is the price of PGR shares?

As of November 13, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 221.87 with a total of 2,783,190 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.19%, over one month by -6.10%, over three months by -8.67% and over the past year by -13.64%.

Is Progressive a good stock to buy?

Yes, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Progressive (NYSE:PGR) is currently (November 2025) a good stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 91.38 and therefor a positive outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of PGR is around 222.84 USD . This means that PGR is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 0.44%.

Is PGR a buy, sell or hold?

Progressive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefor, it is recommend to hold PGR.

Strong Buy: 5
Buy: 5
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the PGR price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	259.1	16.8%
Analysts Target Price	259.1	16.8%
ValueRay Target Price	245.2	10.5%

PGR Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025

Market Cap USD = 127.56b (127.56b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.9325
P/E Forward = 15.2207
P/S = 1.4978
P/B = 4.3795
P/EG = 5.2478
Beta = 0.373
Revenue TTM = 85.18b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.39b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.01b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.89b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 6.89b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -185.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 44.43b USD (127.56b + Debt 6.89b - CCE 90.02b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 37.27 (Ebit TTM 10.39b / Interest Expense TTM 278.9m)
FCF Yield = 37.08% (FCF TTM 16.47b / Enterprise Value 44.43b)
FCF Margin = 19.34% (FCF TTM 16.47b / Revenue TTM 85.18b)
Net Margin = 12.58% (Net Income TTM 10.71b / Revenue TTM 85.18b)
Gross Margin = 26.30% ((Revenue TTM 85.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 62.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.76% (prev 31.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.37 (Enterprise Value 44.43b / Total Assets 121.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.02% (Interest Expense 70.0m / Debt 6.89b)
Taxrate = 21.31% (708.0m / 3.32b)
NOPAT = 8.18b (EBIT 10.39b * (1 - 21.31%))
Current Ratio = 17.95 (Total Current Assets 106.54b / Total Current Liabilities 5.94b)
Debt / Equity = 1.54 (Debt 6.89b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.49b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.01 (Net Debt -185.0m / EBITDA 14.01b)
Debt / FCF = -0.01 (Net Debt -185.0m / FCF TTM 16.47b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.82% (Net Income 10.71b / Total Assets 121.53b)
RoE = 46.77% (Net Income TTM 10.71b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.91b)
RoCE = 34.88% (EBIT 10.39b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.91b + L.T.Debt 6.89b))
RoIC = 22.76% (NOPAT 8.18b / Invested Capital 35.94b)
WACC = 7.05% (E(127.56b)/V(134.45b) * Re(7.39%) + D(6.89b)/V(134.45b) * Rd(1.02%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈15.13b ; Y1≈18.67b ; Y5≈31.85b
Fair Price DCF = 923.8 (DCF Value 541.72b / Shares Outstanding 586.4m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 83.33 | EPS CAGR: 42.83% | SUE: -1.71 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.38 | Revenue CAGR: 20.56% | SUE: 0.98 | # QB: 2

Additional Sources for PGR Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle