PGR Stock Analysis: Progressive | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 134.325m USD | 12M Return: -9.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 743M
EPS Trend: 92.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Progressive Corporation is a U.S.-based insurance company offering personal lines coverage for autos, motorcycles, RVs, watercraft, and residential property (homeowners and renters). The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
On the commercial side, Progressive writes auto liability and physical damage insurance for a wide range of vehicles including dump trucks, tow trucks, vans, and trailers, as well as business-related general liability, commercial property coverage for small businesses, and workers compensation insurance focused on the transportation industry. It also engages in specialty property-casualty insurance, personal property reinsurance, and investment activities.
Products are distributed through a dual-channel model combining independent insurance agencies with direct-to-consumer online and phone sales, a hybrid approach commonly used by large U.S. auto insurers to reach both agent-assisted and self-directed customers.
- Auto combined ratio improvement drives underwriting margin expansion
- Personal and commercial auto net premiums written grow double digits
- Investment income climbs on higher yields from rising interest rates
| Net Income: 11.7b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -10.06% < 20% (prev 36.75%; Δ -46.81% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 16.8b > Net Income 11.7b |
| Net Debt (7.55b) to EBITDA (15.4b): 0.49 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (586.9m) vs 12m ago -0.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.91% > 18% (prev 70.41%; Δ -43.50% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 77.18% > 50% (prev 73.95%; Δ 3.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 50.76 > 6 (EBIT TTM 15.1b / Interest Expense TTM 297.0m) |
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 18.6b - Total Current Liabilities 27.7b) / Total Assets 125b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 29.6b / Total Assets 125b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 15.1b / Avg Total Assets 118b) |
| D: 0.37 (Book Value of Equity 33.8b / Total Liabilities 90.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.54 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.75 (Receivables 17.7b/21.3b, Revenue 91.0b/82.4b) |
| GMI: 2.62 (GM 70.41% / 26.91%) |
| AQI: 6.80 (AQ_t 0.84 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 91.0b / 82.4b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 11.7b - CFO 16.8b) / TA 125b) |
| Beneish M = 1.75 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 205.22 with a total of 7,222,582 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.88%, over one month by +0.89%, over three months by +2.03% and over the past year by -9.76%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 194.80 (which is 5.1% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Progressive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PGR.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 234.7 | 14.4% |
P/E Trailing = 11.7355
P/E Forward = 14.3062
P/S = 1.4753
P/B = 4.2609
P/EG = 35.7657
Revenue TTM = 91.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 15.1b USD
EBITDA TTM = 15.4b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.39b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 8.39b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.55b USD (calculated: Debt 8.39b - CCE 839.0m)
Enterprise Value = 142b USD (134b + Debt 8.39b - CCE 839.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 50.76 (Ebit TTM 15.1b / Interest Expense TTM 297.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.64x (Enterprise Value 142b / FCF TTM 16.4b)
FCF Yield = 11.57% (FCF TTM 16.4b / Enterprise Value 142b)
FCF Margin = 18.03% (FCF TTM 16.4b / Revenue TTM 91.0b)
Net Margin = 12.85% (Net Income TTM 11.7b / Revenue TTM 91.0b)
Gross Margin = 26.91% ((Revenue TTM 91.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 66.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.15% (prev 37.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.14 (Enterprise Value 142b / Total Assets 125b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.54% (Interest Expense 297.0m / Debt 8.39b)
Taxrate = 20.87% (3.08b / 14.8b)
NOPAT = 11.9b (EBIT 15.1b * (1 - 20.87%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 18.6b / Total Current Liabilities 27.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 8.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 33.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.49 (Net Debt 7.55b / EBITDA 15.4b)
Debt / FCF = 0.46 (Net Debt 7.55b / FCF TTM 16.4b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 33.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.91% (Net Income 11.7b / Total Assets 125b)
RoE = 35.38% (Net Income TTM 11.7b / Total Stockholder Equity 33.1b)
RoCE = 36.38% (EBIT 15.1b / Capital Employed (Equity 33.1b + L.T.Debt 8.39b))
RoIC = 12.43% (NOPAT 11.9b / Invested Capital 95.9b)
WACC = 6.12% (E(134b)/V(143b) * Re(6.33%) + D(8.39b)/V(143b) * Rd(3.54%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -41.96 | Cagr: -0.23%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.00% ; FCFF base≈16.1b ; Y1≈16.8b ; Y5≈19.1b
[DCF] Fair Price = 493.8 (EV 295b - Net Debt 7.55b = Equity 287b / Shares 582.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.37% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.85 | EPS CAGR: 84.37% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.09 | Revenue CAGR: 17.94% | SUE: 1.38 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=4.72 | Chg30d=+25.37% | Revisions=+76% | Analysts=19
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.71 | Chg30d=+4.92% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=17.49 | Chg30d=+6.44% | Revisions=+76% | GrowthEPS=-4.2% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.49 | Chg30d=+1.66% | Revisions=+61% | GrowthEPS=-5.7% | GrowthRev=+7.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +79% (up=63, down=6)