PGR Stock Analysis: Progressive | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 124.061m USD | 12M Return: 6.4% | US7433151039 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 623M
EPS Trend: 89.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Progressive Corporation is a U.S.-based insurance company that offers a broad range of personal and commercial property-casualty products. Its core business is personal auto insurance, supplemented by special lines such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft, as well as residential property coverage for homeowners and renters. On the commercial side, Progressive provides auto-related insurance for various commercial vehicles, along with general liability, commercial property, and transportation-focused workers compensation coverage. The company also engages in reinsurance, other specialty property-casualty products, investment activities, and related services. Products are distributed through independent insurance agents, as well as online and over the phone. Founded in 1937 and headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio, Progressive is listed on the NYSE under the ticker PGR and falls within the GICS Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry.
Progressive is one of the largest U.S. auto insurers and is known for its direct-to-consumer model alongside its agent channel, making it a notable player in the competitive personal auto insurance market. As a large-cap Financials stock, it benefits from the relatively stable, premium-driven revenue model typical of property-casualty insurers, where underwriting results and investment income on float are key drivers of profitability.
- Auto claims inflation pressures combined ratio
- Net premiums written growth accelerates across personal lines
- Commercial auto segment expands with rate increases
| Net Income: 11.6b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -71.32% < 20% (prev -44.30%; Δ -27.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 16.3b > Net Income 11.6b |
| Net Debt (6.26b) to EBITDA (15.0b): 0.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (582.2m) vs 12m ago -1.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.61% > 18% (prev 26.30%; Δ 6.31% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.59% > 50% (prev 70.08%; Δ 3.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 46.79 > 6 (EBIT TTM 14.7b / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m) |
| A: -0.51 (Total Current Assets 19.5b - Total Current Liabilities 84.9b) / Total Assets 128b |
| B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 27.3b / Total Assets 128b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 14.7b / Avg Total Assets 125b) |
| D: 0.37 (Book Value of Equity 34.5b / Total Liabilities 93.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.48 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.78 (Receivables 17.3b/20.6b, Revenue 91.7b/85.2b) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 26.30% / 32.61%) |
| AQI: 1.14 (AQ_t 0.84 / AQ_t-1 0.74) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 91.7b / 85.2b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 11.6b - CFO 16.3b) / TA 128b) |
| Beneish M = -3.25 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 221.35 with a total of 2,286,258 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.70%, over one month by +4.34%, over three months by +7.56% and over the past year by +6.39%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 213.70 (which is 3.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Progressive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.40. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PGR.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 16
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 229.4 | 3.7% |
P/E Trailing = 11.1911
P/E Forward = 12.6904
P/S = 1.3529
P/B = 3.4983
P/EG = 63.4591
Revenue TTM = 91.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.7b USD
EBITDA TTM = 15.0b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.90b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.00b USD (from shortLongTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 8.39b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.26b USD (calculated: Debt 8.39b - CCE 2.12b)
Enterprise Value = 130b USD (124b + Debt 8.39b - CCE 2.12b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.79 (Ebit TTM 14.7b / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.17x (Enterprise Value 130b / FCF TTM 16.0b)
FCF Yield = 12.24% (FCF TTM 16.0b / Enterprise Value 130b)
FCF Margin = 17.39% (FCF TTM 16.0b / Revenue TTM 91.7b)
Net Margin = 12.67% (Net Income TTM 11.6b / Revenue TTM 91.7b)
Gross Margin = 32.61% ((Revenue TTM 91.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 61.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 25.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 130b / Total Assets 128b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.74% (Interest Expense 314.0m / Debt 8.39b)
Taxrate = 20.90% (3.07b / 14.7b)
NOPAT = 11.6b (EBIT 14.7b * (1 - 20.90%))
Current Ratio = 0.23 (Total Current Assets 19.5b / Total Current Liabilities 84.9b)
Debt / Equity = 0.24 (Debt 8.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 34.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.42 (Net Debt 6.26b / EBITDA 15.0b)
Debt / FCF = 0.39 (Net Debt 6.26b / FCF TTM 16.0b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 32.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.32% (Net Income 11.6b / Total Assets 128b)
RoE = 35.44% (Net Income TTM 11.6b / Total Stockholder Equity 32.8b)
RoCE = 37.02% (EBIT 14.7b / Capital Employed (Equity 32.8b + L.T.Debt 6.90b))
RoIC = 28.52% (NOPAT 11.6b / Invested Capital 40.7b)
WACC = 4.96% (E(124b)/V(132b) * Re(5.10%) + D(8.39b)/V(132b) * Rd(3.74%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -66.88 | Cagr: -0.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.00% ; FCFF base≈16.2b ; Y1≈15.8b ; Y5≈15.9b
[DCF] Fair Price = 416.7 (EV 248b - Net Debt 6.26b = Equity 242b / Shares 580.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -3.17% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 89.62 | EPS CAGR: 40.99% | SUE: 0.26 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.34 | Revenue CAGR: 16.08% | SUE: 0.37 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=4.41 | Chg30d=-0.27% | Revisions=+31% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=18.39 | Chg30d=+2.27% | Revisions=+53% | GrowthEPS=+0.8% | GrowthRev=+4.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.25 | Chg30d=-0.22% | Revisions=+24% | GrowthEPS=-11.6% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +41% (up=31, down=12)