(PGR) Progressive - NYSE
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 118.019m USD | Total Return: -18.1% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 614M
EPS Trend: 92.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a major U.S. property and casualty insurer specializing in personal and commercial vehicle coverage. Its portfolio includes personal auto, specialty vehicle lines-such as motorcycles and watercraft-and residential property insurance. The company also serves the commercial sector by providing liability, physical damage, and workers compensation insurance primarily for the transportation and small business industries.
Progressive operates through a dual distribution model, utilizing a network of independent agents alongside a direct-to-consumer platform via online and telephonic channels. In the property and casualty sector, insurers typically generate revenue through earned premiums and investment income from their float, which consists of premiums collected but not yet paid out in claims. This industry is highly cyclical and sensitive to both loss cost trends and interest rate fluctuations.
You may find further data on these industry trends by exploring ValueRay. Founded in 1937 and headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio, the company maintains a significant market share in the competitive domestic auto insurance landscape.
- Direct-to-consumer digital marketing efficiency lowers customer acquisition costs and boosts margins
- Frequency and severity of auto insurance claims impact underwriting profitability ratios
- Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase yield on fixed-income investment portfolio
- Geographic expansion of homeowners insurance segment reduces dependency on core auto lines
- Regulatory rate filing approvals determine ability to offset inflationary repair cost increases
| Net Income: 11.6b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -69.00% < 20% (prev 123.2%; Δ -192.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 16.8b > Net Income 11.6b |
| Net Debt (6.10b) to EBITDA (14.9b): 0.41 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.25 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (586.9m) vs 12m ago -0.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.44% > 18% (prev 70.50%; Δ -42.05% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 76.56% > 50% (prev 70.48%; Δ 6.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 52.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 14.6b / Interest Expense TTM 278.0m) |
| A: -0.50 (Total Current Assets 20.1b - Total Current Liabilities 81.8b) / Total Assets 122b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 29.6b / Total Assets 122b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 14.6b / Avg Total Assets 117b) |
| D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 32.0b / Total Liabilities 90.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.31 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.73 (Receivables 17.6b/21.3b, Revenue 89.4b/78.5b) |
| GMI: 2.48 (GM 70.50% / 28.44%) |
| AQI: 6.67 (AQ_t 0.83 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 89.4b / 78.5b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 11.6b - CFO 16.8b) / TA 122b) |
| Beneish M = 1.55 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of June 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 204.42 with a total of 3,370,993 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.11%,
over one month by +0.21%,
over three months by +0.36% and
over the past year by -18.09%.
Progressive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PGR.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 230.9 | 12.9% |
P/E Trailing = 10.2879
P/E Forward = 12.4224
P/S = 1.3254
P/B = 3.6836
P/EG = 31.0405
Revenue TTM = 89.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.6b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.9b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.39b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 8.39b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.10b USD (calculated: Debt 8.39b - CCE 2.29b)
Enterprise Value = 124b USD (118b + Debt 8.39b - CCE 2.29b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 52.35 (Ebit TTM 14.6b / Interest Expense TTM 278.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.56x (Enterprise Value 124b / FCF TTM 16.4b)
FCF Yield = 13.23% (FCF TTM 16.4b / Enterprise Value 124b)
FCF Margin = 18.36% (FCF TTM 16.4b / Revenue TTM 89.4b)
Net Margin = 12.93% (Net Income TTM 11.6b / Revenue TTM 89.4b)
Gross Margin = 28.44% ((Revenue TTM 89.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 64.0b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.66% (prev 29.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 124b / Total Assets 122b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.32% (Interest Expense 278.0m / Debt 8.39b)
Taxrate = 20.57% (2.99b / 14.6b)
NOPAT = 11.6b (EBIT 14.6b * (1 - 20.57%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 20.1b / Total Current Liabilities 81.8b)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 8.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 32.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.41 (Net Debt 6.10b / EBITDA 14.9b)
Debt / FCF = 0.37 (Net Debt 6.10b / FCF TTM 16.4b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 32.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.90% (Net Income 11.6b / Total Assets 122b)
RoE = 35.45% (Net Income TTM 11.6b / Total Stockholder Equity 32.6b)
RoCE = 35.50% (EBIT 14.6b / Capital Employed (Equity 32.6b + L.T.Debt 8.39b))
RoIC = 30.31% (NOPAT 11.6b / Invested Capital 38.1b)
WACC = 6.21% (E(118b)/V(126b) * Re(6.46%) + D(8.39b)/V(126b) * Rd(3.32%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 49.44 | Cagr: -0.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.00% ; FCFF base≈16.1b ; Y1≈16.8b ; Y5≈19.1b
[DCF] Fair Price = 495.2 (EV 295b - Net Debt 6.10b = Equity 289b / Shares 583.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.37% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.85 | EPS CAGR: 84.37% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.53 | Revenue CAGR: 19.39% | SUE: -0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.77 | Chg30d=+0.20% | Revisions=+18% | Analysts=21
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.54 | Chg30d=+1.23% | Revisions=+9% | Analysts=20
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.35 | Chg30d=+0.31% | Revisions=+10% | GrowthEPS=-10.4% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.20 | Chg30d=+0.46% | Revisions=+10% | GrowthEPS=-0.9% | GrowthRev=+7.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +18%