(PHM) PulteGroup - Ratings and Ratios
Single-Family Detached, Townhomes, Condominiums, Duplexes, Financing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 51.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.13% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.29 |
| Alpha | -21.80 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.237 |
| Beta | 0.710 |
| Beta Downside | 0.394 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.01% |
| Mean DD | 10.81% |
| Median DD | 7.23% |
Description: PHM PulteGroup October 14, 2025
PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) is a U.S. homebuilder that acquires land, develops residential subdivisions, and constructs a range of housing types-including single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and duplexes-under brands such as Pulte Homes, Centex, Del Webb, DiVosta, John Wieland, and American West. In addition to construction, the firm offers mortgage-loan origination, sells loan-servicing rights, and provides title-insurance and closing services to homebuyers.
According to the company’s 2023 annual report, PulteGroup generated roughly **$13.5 billion in revenue**, delivered **≈30,000 homes** (a 4 % increase YoY), and reported a **net income of $1.2 billion**. The average selling price (ASP) of its homes rose to **about $400 k**, driven largely by higher-priced markets in the Sun Belt. As of Q3 2024, the firm’s **backlog stood near $5 billion**, indicating a pipeline of future deliveries that could sustain earnings if financing conditions remain favorable.
Key macro drivers for PulteGroup include **mortgage-rate volatility**, which directly affects buyer affordability; the **U.S. Housing Affordability Index**, currently below 100, suggesting many households are price-constrained; and **construction-labor shortages**, which have pushed material and wage costs up 5-7 % year-over-year. A 1 % rise in the 30-year Treasury yield historically correlates with a 0.5 % dip in home-sale volumes for large builders, a relationship Pulte must monitor closely. Conversely, strong **population inflows to the Sun Belt** and a **tight housing inventory** (national vacancy rate ≈1.2 %) provide tailwinds for pricing power.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of how these factors translate into valuation risk and upside, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards a useful next step.
PHM Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 22,468m |
| Sub-Industry | Homebuilding |
| IPO / Inception | 1985-07-01 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -21.7% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
PHM Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.78% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.12% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 13.16% |
| Payout Consistency | 83.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 6.8% |
PHM Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 39.01% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.03 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 3.61 |
| Current Volume | 1678.1k |
| Average Volume | 1774.5k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (2.63b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.06b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -4.52pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 67.48% (prev 75.20%; Δ -7.72pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 (>3.0%) and CFO 568.7m <= Net Income 2.63b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (576.0m) to EBITDA (3.54b) ratio: 0.16 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 5.09 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (198.1m) change vs 12m ago -4.95% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 27.49% (prev 29.54%; Δ -2.06pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 101.3% (prev 102.1%; Δ -0.88pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5188 (EBITDA TTM 3.54b / Interest Expense TTM 663.0k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 9.40
| (A) 0.67 = (Total Current Assets 14.80b - Total Current Liabilities 2.91b) / Total Assets 17.85b |
| (B) 0.53 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 9.46b / Total Assets 17.85b |
| (C) 0.20 = EBIT TTM 3.44b / Avg Total Assets 17.40b |
| (D) 1.88 = Book Value of Equity 9.46b / Total Liabilities 5.02b |
| Total Rating: 9.40 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 71.24
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.36% = 1.18 |
| 3. FCF Margin 3.09% = 0.77 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.16 = 2.49 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.16 = 2.48 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 10.13)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 21.12% = 1.76 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 11.10% = 0.83 |
| 9. EPS Trend 4.52% = 0.23 |
What is the price of PHM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.38%, over one month by -7.93%, over three months by -11.34% and over the past year by -11.04%.
Is PHM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PHM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 137 | 20.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 137 | 20.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 135 | 19% |
PHM Fundamental Data Overview November 18, 2025
P/E Trailing = 8.787
P/E Forward = 11.0375
P/S = 1.2749
P/B = 1.7989
P/EG = 1.0038
Beta = 1.319
Revenue TTM = 17.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.44b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.54b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.03b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 304.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 576.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 23.04b USD (22.47b + Debt 2.03b - CCE 1.45b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5188 (Ebit TTM 3.44b / Interest Expense TTM 663.0k)
FCF Yield = 2.36% (FCF TTM 544.1m / Enterprise Value 23.04b)
FCF Margin = 3.09% (FCF TTM 544.1m / Revenue TTM 17.62b)
Net Margin = 14.93% (Net Income TTM 2.63b / Revenue TTM 17.62b)
Gross Margin = 27.49% ((Revenue TTM 17.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.77% (prev 27.21%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 23.04b / Total Assets 17.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.01% (Interest Expense 268.0k / Debt 2.03b)
Taxrate = 23.70% (182.0m / 767.8m)
NOPAT = 2.62b (EBIT 3.44b * (1 - 23.70%))
Current Ratio = 5.09 (Total Current Assets 14.80b / Total Current Liabilities 2.91b)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 2.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.83b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.16 (Net Debt 576.0m / EBITDA 3.54b)
Debt / FCF = 1.06 (Net Debt 576.0m / FCF TTM 544.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.74% (Net Income 2.63b / Total Assets 17.85b)
RoE = 21.12% (Net Income TTM 2.63b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.46b)
RoCE = 23.75% (EBIT 3.44b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.46b + L.T.Debt 2.03b))
RoIC = 18.05% (NOPAT 2.62b / Invested Capital 14.54b)
WACC = 7.92% (E(22.47b)/V(24.50b) * Re(8.63%) + D(2.03b)/V(24.50b) * Rd(0.01%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.17%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.58% ; FCFE base≈839.7m ; Y1≈809.2m ; Y5≈797.2m
Fair Price DCF = 65.44 (DCF Value 12.76b / Shares Outstanding 194.9m; 5y FCF grow -4.91% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 4.52 | EPS CAGR: -7.15% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 11.10 | Revenue CAGR: -5.67% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for PHM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle