PHM Stock Analysis: PulteGroup | NYSE

Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 25.257m USD | 12M Return: 22.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Single-Family Homes, Townhomes, Mortgage Banking, Title Insurance
Total Rating 40
Safety 50
Buy Signal -0.24
Residential Construction
Industry Rotation: -5.5
Market Cap: 25.3B
Avg Turnover: 213M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility34.2%
VaR 5th Pctl5.68%
VaR vs Median0.66%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.60
Rel. Str. IBD45.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group32.5
Character TTM
Beta0.842
Beta Downside0.952
Hurst Exponent0.584
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD38.01%
CAGR/Max DD0.54
CAGR/Mean DD1.52
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of PHM over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.9, "2021-09": 1.82, "2021-12": 2.51, "2022-03": 1.83, "2022-06": 2.73, "2022-09": 2.69, "2022-12": 3.85, "2023-03": 2.35, "2023-06": 3, "2023-09": 2.9, "2023-12": 3.52, "2024-03": 3.1, "2024-06": 3.58, "2024-09": 3.35, "2024-12": 4.43, "2025-03": 2.57, "2025-06": 3.03, "2025-09": 2.96, "2025-12": 2.88, "2026-03": 1.79,
EPS CAGR: -0.61%
EPS Trend: -6.1%
Last SUE: -0.05
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of PHM over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 3359.484, 2021-09: 3479.05, 2021-12: 4358.558, 2022-03: 3149.519, 2022-06: 3926.186, 2022-09: 3895.062, 2022-12: 5171.378, 2023-03: 3575.641, 2023-06: 4188.753, 2023-09: 4003.533, 2023-12: 4293.652, 2024-03: 3949.16, 2024-06: 4599.655, 2024-09: 4476.342, 2024-12: 4921.794, 2025-03: 3892.65, 2025-06: 4403.755, 2025-09: 4404.799, 2025-12: 4610.748, 2026-03: 3408.572,
Rev. CAGR: 2.02%
Rev. Trend: 52.3%
Last SUE: 0.21
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Choppy

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +3.5% 15
Feb -3.4% 30
Mar +2.6% 28
Apr +0.9% 13
May -2.7% 28
Jun -0.2% 0
Jul +1.8% 23
Aug -2.4% 27
Sep +0.2% 5
Oct +0.6% 5
Nov +6.1% 58
Dec -3.9% 20

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: PHM PulteGroup

PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) is a U.S. homebuilder headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, operating through subsidiaries to acquire and develop residential land and construct homes. The company sells single-family detached homes as well as attached formats such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes, marketed under multiple brands including Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods. In addition to homebuilding, PulteGroup runs complementary mortgage banking, title, and insurance agency operations that support its core residential business. The company was founded in 1950 and trades as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector.

The U.S. homebuilding industry is classified within the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector and tends to be cyclical, with demand influenced by mortgage rates, employment trends, and housing supply dynamics. A common feature of large national homebuilders is vertical integration into mortgage and title services, which allows them to capture ancillary revenue from home sales and offer a more streamlined closing process for buyers. Multi-brand strategies, like PulteGroups, are also typical in the industry and enable operators to target different price points, customer demographics, and geographic markets under distinct brand identities.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Mortgage rate cuts drive single-family home order growth
  • Del Webb 55+ active adult segment expands margins
  • Capital returns accelerate through buybacks and dividends
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: 2.04b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.66 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 76.04% < 20% (prev 63.56%; Δ 12.47% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 1.74b > Net Income 2.04b
Net Debt (222.3m) to EBITDA (2.79b): 0.08 < 3
Current Ratio: 5.48 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (193.9m) vs 12m ago -4.82% < -2%
Gross Margin: 26.06% > 18% (prev 28.60%; Δ -2.54% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 94.72% > 50% (prev 103.2%; Δ -8.48% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.17k > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.68b / Interest Expense TTM 642k)
Altman Z'' 9.91
A: 0.70 (Total Current Assets 15.7b - Total Current Liabilities 2.86b) / Total Assets 18.2b
B: 0.52 (Retained Earnings 9.44b / Total Assets 18.2b)
C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 2.68b / Avg Total Assets 17.8b)
D: 2.47 (Book Value of Equity 13.0b / Total Liabilities 5.24b)
Altman-Z'' = 9.91 = AAA
What is the price of PHM shares?

As of July 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 131.38 with a total of 865,273 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.53%, over one month by +11.85%, over three months by +9.87% and over the past year by +22.46%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 126.10 (which is 4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is PHM a buy, sell or hold?

PulteGroup has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PHM.

  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the PHM price?
Analysts Target Price 138.1 5.1%
PulteGroup (PHM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 03 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 25.3b (25.3b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.8106
P/E Forward = 13.6799
P/S = 1.5009
P/B = 2.0176
P/EG = 1.2443
Revenue TTM = 16.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.68b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.79b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.28b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 478.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.54b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 133.2m
Net Debt = 222.3m USD (calculated: Debt 2.54b - CCE 2.32b)
Enterprise Value = 25.5b USD (25.3b + Debt 2.54b - CCE 2.32b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.17k (Ebit TTM 2.68b / Interest Expense TTM 642k)
EV/FCF = 15.50x (Enterprise Value 25.5b / FCF TTM 1.64b)
FCF Yield = 6.45% (FCF TTM 1.64b / Enterprise Value 25.5b)
FCF Margin = 9.77% (FCF TTM 1.64b / Revenue TTM 16.8b)
Net Margin = 12.14% (Net Income TTM 2.04b / Revenue TTM 16.8b)
Gross Margin = 26.06% ((Revenue TTM 16.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.12% (prev 24.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.40 (Enterprise Value 25.5b / Total Assets 18.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.03% (Interest Expense 642k / Debt 2.54b)
Taxrate = 23.76% (636.7m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 2.04b (EBIT 2.68b * (1 - 23.76%))
Current Ratio = 5.48 (Total Current Assets 15.7b / Total Current Liabilities 2.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 2.54b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 13.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.08 (Net Debt 222.3m / EBITDA 2.79b)
Debt / FCF = 0.14 (Net Debt 222.3m / FCF TTM 1.64b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.50% (Net Income 2.04b / Total Assets 18.2b)
RoE = 15.92% (Net Income TTM 2.04b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.8b)
RoCE = 17.73% (EBIT 2.68b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.8b + L.T.Debt 2.28b))
RoIC = 13.64% (NOPAT 2.04b / Invested Capital 15.0b)
WACC = 8.13% (E(25.3b)/V(27.8b) * Re(8.95%) + D(2.54b)/V(27.8b) * Rd(0.03%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -4.65%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.70% ; FCFF base≈1.57b ; Y1≈1.77b ; Y5≈2.51b
[DCF] Fair Price = 197.7 (EV 37.9b - Net Debt 222.3m = Equity 37.7b / Shares 190.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 13.29% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -6.14 | EPS CAGR: -0.61% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 52.31 | Revenue CAGR: 2.02% | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.36 | Chg30d=+0.23% | Revisions=-80% | Analysts=11
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.78 | Chg30d=-0.19% | Revisions=+27% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.02 | Chg30d=-0.04% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=-9.9% | GrowthRev=-5.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.11 | Chg30d=-0.46% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+10.9% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=11, down=36)